Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

Our international borders could be closed for 5+ years at this rate...

PM’s crushing border warning

Scott Morrison has warned Australians campaigning to reopen international borders that there’s “no finish line” on the virus and to consider the example of Britain, where 4000 daily cases are now being recorded despite the majority of adults being vaccinated.

www.news.com.au

It's annoying that the discussion is so binary - go from closed borders with full quarantine and testing, to open borders. Exit and entry as a free for all. That I agree is years away but why no stepped approach? There seems to be no discussion about mid way points - vaccinated people (even just citizens for a start) being tested on arrival then home quarantine if negative. It's always 'all or none'. Although reading between the lines he is preparing people for increased numbers.

 

[SydneySwan]

Our international borders could be closed for 5+ years at this rate...

PM’s crushing border warning

Scott Morrison has warned Australians campaigning to reopen international borders that there’s “no finish line” on the virus and to consider the example of Britain, where 4000 daily cases are now being recorded despite the majority of adults being vaccinated.

www.news.com.au

This is a recipe for an even greater skills exodus than is currently happening. I would rather live in an open country managing COVID like the UK than a closed Australia living under the doona.

 

[roogirl]

It's annoying that the discussion is so binary - go from closed borders with full quarantine and testing, to open borders. Exit and entry as a free for all. That I agree is years away but why no stepped approach? There seems to be no discussion about mid way points - vaccinated people (even just citizens for a start) being tested on arrival then home quarantine if negative. It's always 'all or none'. Although reading between the lines he is preparing people for increased numbers.

It’s also annoying that no one ever focuses on how extraordinarily effective the vaccines are at preventing sickness. Who cares if there are 4000 cases a day if no one ends up in hospital? That’s basically where the uk is - cases soaring but deaths and hospitalisations not.

 

[Cddc]

I'll throw my hat into the ring:

These are across the board.

Absolute best case scenario: Early June 2020
Mid case scenario: Early September 2020
Worst case scenario: Early December 2020

Zombie apocalypse, glad you hoarded toilet paper and pasta: June 2021

Only mention toilet paper and pasta because I came out of 14 days isolation today and are still unavailable. Fresh food which I craved was in plentiful supply

Lolol...this thread hasn't aged very well!

What a farce.

The conspiracy theorist in me says the PM has learnt from the state premiers a lesson in getting re-elected. Keeping the borders closed makes some feel safe, the perception covid is being managed well and will return the favour with their vote. How do you keep the borders closed? Tell the populace it is not a race to get vaccinated and seed doubt about the effectiveness of vaccines, which the PM did today with remarks about the UK.

As soon as more people get vaccinated there there will be a tipping point where the demand for borders to open will exceed those calling for them to remain closed. I just don't think the PM wants this to happen before the next election.

Let me out already!

*edit - in the spirit of this thread I am going to predict an election first Saturday of March with essential OS business travel beginning early Feb. Leisure travel coming back June 2022.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Pretty disappointing. We can't travel but thousands of students can come in?

It seems the quest to make a dollar is the overriding factor for the PM to make decisions. Just a few days ago the PM said 'working from home is not suitable for Australians'. Why? Because businesses in the CBD aren't getting an income.

Honestly, if we wanted to go to the CBD, we would! No good forcing people to go.

 

[Princess Fiona]

It’s also annoying that no one ever focuses on how extraordinarily effective the vaccines are at preventing sickness. Who cares if there are 4000 cases a day if no one ends up in hospital? That’s basically where the uk is - cases soaring but deaths and hospitalisations not.

The vaccines are effective, absolutely people should go and get their vaccine.
And absolutely this will become endemic and just part of the flu but we are a fair way away from that.
The UK is worth watching as the delta cases are on the rise, along with hospitalizations. The UK has had a massive effort in vaccinations but it’s not yet clear if it’s enough.
Your Local Epidemiologist

 

[mviy]

Tomorrow's Front Page of The Canberra Times: "Unis to bank on student return plan" which states that "Canberra universities are hoping international students will be back in the ACT within months if the federal government approves a NSW proposal."

 

[hb13]

The vaccines are effective, absolutely people should go and get their vaccine.
And absolutely this will become endemic and just part of the flu but we are a fair way away from that.
The UK is worth watching as the delta cases are on the rise, along with hospitalizations. The UK has had a massive effort in vaccinations but it’s not yet clear if it’s enough.
Your Local Epidemiologist

Once again, the PM has poured cold water over the vaccines, and you wonder why there is an issue with take up in Australia and why the roll out is an absolute disgrace - there is no other way to say it.

Hospitalisations in the UK are steady and some people in the media will lead people to believe that things are out of control here in the UK, as the media has done so well here and in Australia. Cases are rising for the last month - yet we haven't seen that correlation to hospitalisations and deaths - yet. Once again however, the UK has managed to bungle this up by royally. The only positive thing in the UK is the vaccine rollout - more coverage than other EU countries - yet, our cases are rising and all of the EU is effectively lower than us and on the way down.

 

[hb13]

This is a recipe for an even greater skills exodus than is currently happening. I would rather live in an open country managing COVID like the UK than a closed Australia living under the doona.

Trust me, you don't want to be in the UK - it is anything but open. Apart from a handful of countries, there is no point travelling anywhere if you're based here. We in the UK are watching the EU open up, US and Canadian citizens/residents able to travel overseas freely if fully jabbed, and us - nothing. The vaccine here means absolutely nothing in terms of travel policy.

Not to be too political, but Boris Johnson was the guy who wanted and dreamt of Brexit. It is clear now that the ruling conservative party, similar to Trump wants an isolationist country - Britain first and forget about anyone else policy. What was once known as "Global Britain" is now pretty much the Hermit Island of the UK.

 

[louie-m]

Trust me, you don't want to be in the UK - it is anything but open. Apart from a handful of countries, there is no point travelling anywhere if you're based here. We in the UK are watching the EU open up, US and Canadian citizens/residents able to travel overseas freely if fully jabbed, and us - nothing. The vaccine here means absolutely nothing in terms of travel policy.

Not to be too political, but Boris Johnson was the guy who wanted and dreamt of Brexit. It is clear now that the ruling conservative party, similar to Trump wants an isolationist country - Britain first and forget about anyone else policy. What was once known as "Global Britain" is now pretty much the Hermit Island of the UK.

I disagree. If your destination will let you in, most countries (including virtually all in Europe bar Turkey) can be visited from the UK if you are able to do 10 days home isolation on your return, with the potential for release after 5 days. That's a whole lot different to being required to be granted a permit to leave Australia and to do 14 days hotel quarantine on your return, assuming of course you can even get a flight back.

As for Boris, he didn't particularly want Brexit, he just wanted to further his career. He was pretty much the last Tory to decide which way to go on Brexit, pushing it out that far so he could see which way the wind was blowing, rather than making his decision on any ideological basis.

 

[oznflfan]

Lolol...this thread hasn't aged very well!

What a farce.

The conspiracy theorist in me says the PM has learnt from the state premiers a lesson in getting re-elected. Keeping the borders closed makes some feel safe, the perception covid is being managed well and will return the favour with their vote. How do you keep the borders closed? Tell the populace it is not a race to get vaccinated and seed doubt about the effectiveness of vaccines, which the PM did today with remarks about the UK.

As soon as more people get vaccinated there there will be a tipping point where the demand for borders to open will exceed those calling for them to remain closed. I just don't think the PM wants this to happen before the next election.

Let me out already!

*edit - in the spirit of this thread I am going to predict an election first Saturday of March with essential OS business travel beginning early Feb. Leisure travel coming back June 2022.

You are absolutely right on stated intentions of the PM.

Two points though:

A) He won't want to cede any ground, so zero oversea's travel before election. Once elected, opensies.

B) He should bring election forward to October 2021. He can ride on this coattails on current situation, without risk of Labour strengthening, or vaccine rollout going so well and other western countries opening in full that he looks silly on his hard border stance, losing his current advantage.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Once again, the PM has poured cold water over the vaccines, and you wonder why there is an issue with take up in Australia and why the roll out is an absolute disgrace - there is no other way to say it.

Hospitalisations in the UK are steady and some people in the media will lead people to believe that things are out of control here in the UK, as the media has done so well here and in Australia. Cases are rising for the last month - yet we haven't seen that correlation to hospitalisations and deaths - yet. Once again however, the UK has managed to bungle this up by royally. The only positive thing in the UK is the vaccine rollout - more coverage than other EU countries - yet, our cases are rising and all of the EU is effectively lower than us and on the way down.

vaccine effectiveness against the current strains ‘of concern’ is still be to understood. Certainly AZ seems to require the second dose to even have a reasonable chance of protection. Pfizer is much better. But many people are still waiting for their second dose of AZ.

Hospitalisations at the rate they are occurring in the UK would have a significant impact on our ability to conduct elective surgery, and also take a toll on our medical staff.

 

[drron]

vaccine effectiveness against the current strains ‘of concern’ is still be to understood. Certainly AZ seems to require the second dose to even have a reasonable chance of protection. Pfizer is much better. But many people are still waiting for their second dose of AZ.

Hospitalisations at the rate they are occurring in the UK would have a significant impact on our ability to conduct elective surgery, and also take a toll on our medical staff.

Though in the real world - the UK -there was no difference in the reduction of hospitalisation and deaths after the first dose between Pfizer and AZ.

 

[burmans]

More press on Australia being left behind.

Australia at risk of being left behind as world opens up to vaccinated travel

Australia is at risk of being left behind by the rest of the world as countries – including the EU – move quickly towards travel for vaccinated individuals.

thenewdaily.com.au

 

[hb13]

That article should have listed the UK in the same boat as Australia.

More press on Australia being left behind.

Australia at risk of being left behind as world opens up to vaccinated travel

Australia is at risk of being left behind by the rest of the world as countries – including the EU – move quickly towards travel for vaccinated individuals.

thenewdaily.com.au

 

[hb13]

I disagree. If your destination will let you in, most countries (including virtually all in Europe bar Turkey) can be visited from the UK if you are able to do 10 days home isolation on your return, with the potential for release after 5 days. That's a whole lot different to being required to be granted a permit to leave Australia and to do 14 days hotel quarantine on your return, assuming of course you can even get a flight back.

As for Boris, he didn't particularly want Brexit, he just wanted to further his career. He was pretty much the last Tory to decide which way to go on Brexit, pushing it out that far so he could see which way the wind was blowing, rather than making his decision on any ideological basis.

Some people cannot afford to do home isolation. On top of that, you need to shell out 200-300 GBP for tests, along with time wasted to get each of those tests. That's why I have said all along when there has been a discussion of home isolation vs hotel quarantine, the home isolation option is not viable for many people.

And with regards to Boris, if you are here now, the UK is effectively acting like there is no other country in the world outside of here. We are on the verge of a trade war with the EU and frankly it is pretty disgusting - but, the government here seems to do anything they like and get away with it. That is the problem.

 

[roogirl]

That article should have listed the UK in the same boat as Australia.

I think Indy SAGE has lost the plot in the U.K. Susan Michie was interviewed yesterday and expressed the opinion that social distancing and masks should stay FOREVER - “they’ll become like picking up dog poo or wearing a seatbelt - why wouldn’t you do it?”. The fact is that these scientists are completely divorced from reality.

U.K. government has presented a tourism recovery plan today that is pretty ambitious. I think it will be fine - and at least they are focusing on it in a structured way (regardless of if we grouch about the timelines). I’d rather that than Scott “not sure if we’ll ever be able to reopen” Morrison or Mark “you’re selfish if you want to see your family abroad” McGowan.

 

[hb13]

vaccine effectiveness against the current strains ‘of concern’ is still be to understood. Certainly AZ seems to require the second dose to even have a reasonable chance of protection. Pfizer is much better. But many people are still waiting for their second dose of AZ.

Hospitalisations at the rate they are occurring in the UK would have a significant impact on our ability to conduct elective surgery, and also take a toll on our medical staff.

So you're for the PM basically telling the population vaccines are not effective? Because that message is being heard loud and clear.

 

[dajop]

That article should have listed the UK in the same boat as Australia.

Although I wonder what the articles definition of “rest of the world” really is. Actually no I don’t (wonder). Usually the “rest of the world means the “rich parts of the world”. Asia is a long way from opening up properly and vaccination roll outs have a long way to go. And who on earth knows what’s happening in Africa.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So you're for the PM basically telling the population vaccines are not effective? Because that message is being heard loud and clear.

I guess that's one interpretation. The other is that we don't know how effective the vaccines are against this new variant, so we need time to see.

Worst case scenario is that the vaccines might not be effective... or only have a limited effectiveness of 3-6 months.