Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jb747]

Exactly.The healthy 18 year old if he does get covid is quite likely to be asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms so unlikely to go for testing.However what if he visits his elderly grandparents on a regular basis and they then get covid and die.
Not only the 2 deaths but your heathy 18 year old is very likely to feel guilt and remorse and so continue to suffer for some time.

Which rather makes a lie of the comments about having the vaccine or not being a personal choice. Someone’s failure to have the vaccine could well kill somebody else. It doesn’t get much more personal than that.

 

[JB expat]

There has been opportunity to travel interstate over the last year, I've had family travel to Queensland from Victoria. Things were on the up and confidence was good to travel around the country until Victoria's fourth lock-down.

The lock downs at the moment are to essentially squash the virus in the community before it gets out of control. Even though we have very low vaccination numbers our covid cases and fatalities are well over 95% lower than what the likes of the UK and US are experiencing at the moment considering their high vaccination numbers.

We need 80% of the population fully vaccinated to have any confidence to open up again and this will need to be a year on year approach.

Disagree. We need abundant supply of vaccine plus the recommended time period between vaccines. Then borders should open. Those who don’t vaccinate should be barred from many activities and from flying domestically and internationally.

 

[dajop]

Take at look at recent Australian economic indicators (it's not just me).

I think the trouble is the pain is not evenly spread. Some businesses are booming (essential supplies, home renovation, electronics), even suburban cafes/restaurants are rumoured to be doing OK, but some are struggling a lot (international tourist focused businesses, airlines, CBD eateries and retail, universities).

But also easy to forget that until the last few weeks, for most of the last 12 months ( except a few short hiccups) 75% of Australia lived a relatively free life. Victoria didn't, obviously.

Also taking some random stats from the internet (so not sure about their veracity), bankruptcies seemed to be down in 2020, thanks to government support. A certain portion of businesses do go bankrupt each year, and some argue that a proportion of these were deferred due to the government support. 2021 might be very different. (Of course still any bankruptcy will take a personal emotional toll - whatever the stats).

Australia Bankruptcies

Bankruptcies in Australia increased to 1225 Companies in September from 1168 Companies in August of 2024. This page provides - Australia Bankruptcies - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[roogirl]

At least one government has wised up to the loopholes on international travel: 'It's just not right': WA Premier vents at people booking overseas conferences and holidays amid pandemic

He said a significant number of people had travelled on multiple occasions, including more than 1,300 who had left WA on two separate overseas trips and 500 people who had been abroad three times.

Mr McGowan said 82 people had been on four overseas trips, while eight people had left five times and two people six times.

"In other words, there's a large group of people who have been overseas on multiple occasions. And every time they go overseas, they increase the risk," he said.”

so 1892 people - 0.07% of the population of WA. It’s hardly a widespread problem is it? Spin at its finest.

 

[jonboixxx]

I think the trouble is the pain is not evenly spread. Some businesses are booming (essential supplies, home renovation, electronics), even suburban cafes/restaurants are rumoured to be doing OK, but some are struggling a lot (international tourist focused businesses, airlines, CBD eateries and retail, universities).

I agree, yet I do not resile from my comments about living in Australia through this period. I, as many other SME owners have been forced to make significant changes to their business model.
As an old mentor said to me, which likely many SME owners have heard, "If being in business for yourself was easy, everyone would be doing it". I have experienced numerous disruptions to my businesses and this so happens to be a peak.

 

[mviy]

Also taking some random stats from the internet (so not sure about their veracity), bankruptcies seemed to be down in 2020, thanks to government support. A certain portion of businesses do go bankrupt each year, and some argue that a proportion of these were deferred due to the government support. 2021 might be very different.

Job Keeper, temporary exemption from liability from Insolvent Trading, loan deferral, rent reductions, longer wait time to go to court (was changed to 6 months instead of the usual 21 days, has now changed back), bankruptcy proceedings, and a lack of recovery actions from the ATO all contributed to that. Once the ATO starts to push hard to collect outstanding debts one would expect the number of businesses going bankrupt to rise again.

Sooner or later the ATO will chase unpaid super and taxes and the number of businesses going bankrupt will increase.

 

[dajop]

He said a significant number of people had travelled on multiple occasions, including more than 1,300 who had left WA on two separate overseas trips and 500 people who had been abroad three times.
nest.

But which direction were those trips? Inbound foreign residents (remembering foreign resident AU citizens can leave without exemption) or outbound Australian residents?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

He said a significant number of people had travelled on multiple occasions, including more than 1,300 who had left WA on two separate overseas trips and 500 people who had been abroad three times.

Mr McGowan said 82 people had been on four overseas trips, while eight people had left five times and two people six times.

"In other words, there's a large group of people who have been overseas on multiple occasions. And every time they go overseas, they increase the risk," he said.”

so 1892 people - 0.07% of the population of WA. It’s hardly a widespread problem is it? Spin at its finest.

Stats work both ways... it's 5% of the total number of Aussies 'stranded' abroad (based on 35K currently registered as such). If the numbers are the same in other states, you'd have a hefty proportion of Aussies that could be home by now.

 

[roogirl]

Stats work both ways... it's 5% of the total number of Aussies 'stranded' abroad (based on 35K currently registered as such). If the numbers are the same in other states, you'd have a hefty proportion of Aussies that could be home by now.

Well quite, but the primary barrier to “stranded Aussies” coming home is cost - most simply can’t afford the business class pricing on the commercial flights + quarantine on top. I priced it - for my family of 4 from london it would be £28k + then around A$5k for quarantine (some discounts apply but you don’t know if you can get them until you arrive in quarantine). That’s ludicrous. The repatriation flight leaving london in July is full in economy but you can still get a seat in business.

plus this idea that we should be sniffy about the fact that there are “still” 35k people on the stranded list and why haven’t they managed to come home is just simplistic to the point of stupidity. It’s been 16 months. There are thousands who weren’t in a position to come home in March 2020, or their visa has since expired, or they’ve decided they need to make the trip to the other side of fortress Australia to live, or they have business they need to attend to. You can’t just expect everyone else to freeze at a moment in time just because of some weird notion of dropping everything and moving to Oz.

 

[JB expat]

Well quite, but the primary barrier to “stranded Aussies” coming home is cost - most simply can’t afford the business class pricing on the commercial flights + quarantine on top. I priced it - for my family of 4 from london it would be £28k + then around A$5k for quarantine (some discounts apply but you don’t know if you can get them until you arrive in quarantine). That’s ludicrous. The repatriation flight leaving london in July is full in economy but you can still get a seat in business.

plus this idea that we should be sniffy about the fact that there are “still” 35k people on the stranded list and why haven’t they managed to come home is just simplistic to the point of stupidity. It’s been 16 months. There are thousands who weren’t in a position to come home in March 2020, or their visa has since expired, or they’ve decided they need to make the trip to the other side of fortress Australia to live, or they have business they need to attend to. You can’t just expect everyone else to freeze at a moment in time just because of some weird notion of dropping everything and moving to Oz.

Curious. What does happen if your visa with your host country expires but you simply cannot get in to Australia whether it be because of flight availability or costs or a combo?

 

[mviy]

Well I think eventually foreign countries will lose their patience and do mass deportations sending back to Australia more people than our caps will take if our restrictions don’t change. Their patience will eventually run out when their health advice is that it’s safe to travel.

 

[dajop]

Well quite, but the primary barrier to “stranded Aussies” coming home is cost - most simply can’t afford the business class pricing on the commercial flights + quarantine on top. I priced it - for my family of 4 from london it would be £28k + then around A$5k for quarantine (some discounts apply but you don’t know if you can get them until you arrive in quarantine). That’s ludicrous. The repatriation flight leaving london in July is full in economy but you can still get a seat in business.

If you can get to ATH (and have no idea of entry restrictions to ATH) you can travel to PER for family of four £4.4K in Y or £5.2K in Y during August. But it is Scoot and I wouldn't touch that fare with a barge pole, unless you could book the itinerary on an SQ code (as it is non-refundable and can only be used on that route, if something went pear shaped)

 

[roogirl]

Curious. What does happen if your visa with your host country expires but you simply cannot get in to Australia whether it be because of flight availability or costs or a combo?

DFAT provides consular assistance and I think negotiates to extend the visa / provides support to get the person home. I can’t imagine the embassy staff are best pleased about having to have those conversations with their British counterparts, it’s pretty embarrassing.

it was very telling that we didn’t hear a peep from scomo when he was here. Normally when there’s a PM & Aussie minister in town there’s always some kind of embassy event on - it’s been zoom calls during pandemic but they celebrate it. Nothing this time, but I can’t imagine scomo getting anything other than a bad response if he was actually put in front of expat aussies here.

Post automatically merged: Jul 1, 2021

If you can get to ATH (and have no idea of entry restrictions to ATH) you can travel to PER for family of four £4.4K in Y or £5.2K in Y during August. But it is Scoot and I wouldn't touch that fare with a barge pole, unless you could book the itinerary on an SQ code (as it is non-refundable and can only be used on that route, if something went pear shaped)

No way will those seats fly. Very very unlikely indeed. SQ are one of the few airlines doing a reasonable job but they’re not prioritising discount fares into Oz.

 

[roogirl]

Betoota Advocate (which is basically at this point providing better reporting on what’s happening than actual media) nails it

Government Advice For Stranded Aussies Overseas Updated To "Just Book A Business Class Ticket"

 

[dajop]

No way will those seats fly. Very very unlikely indeed. SQ are one of the few airlines doing a reasonable job but they’re not prioritising discount fares into Oz.

I wouldn't touch them using Scoot ticket. No way.

However, they seem to be using Scoot for economy fares into Oz from SIN, instead of SQ (the only economy seats we could find were into MEL/PER on Scoot). They are not really discounted (ex-SIN) especially for a LCC. Cost is about $1300 for one way 5 hour flight SIN-PER in economy (vs $150-$300 pre-COVID), but might appear discounted ex-ATH as the add-on is only a few hundred $$ more, not being capped.

We have flights booked for next month (ex-SIN) so will see how we go, I am concerned that McGowan wants to cut intake, in which case we're screwed. But, we didn't book on Scoot code (refused to), being a LCC, all their fares, no matter the price are non refundable and any changes can only be on the same route. But we discovered you could book full economy (fully flexible) using the SQ code on Scoot with SQ ticketing conditions (and same price as SQ metal ) if it is combined with another SQ sector, which is MEL-SIN. I suspect this trick wouldn't work for anything involving a connection.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Other states don't let them in at all. Which would you prefer?

Absolutely false. NSW doesn’t quarantine any interstate travelers in hotels or elsewhere.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

one of the main problems of the whole covid situation is the double standard....
the QLD health lady really annoyed me, saying how she doesnt want an 18 year old dying from the vaccine when they would have been fine if they got covid ...
SO WHY ARE YOU LOCKING 18 YEAROLDS IN THEIR HOUSES

 

[MEL_Traveller]

one of the main problems of the whole covid situation is the double standard....
the QLD health lady really annoyed me, saying how she doesnt want an 18 year old dying from the vaccine when they would have been fine if they got covid ...
SO WHY ARE YOU LOCKING 18 YEAROLDS IN THEIR HOUSES

Because an 18 year old can carry the virus and pass it on to someone who is far more vulnerable.

 

[roogirl]

s

I wouldn't touch them using Scoot ticket. No way.

However, they seem to be using Scoot for economy fares into Oz from SIN, instead of SQ (the only economy seats we could find were into MEL/PER on Scoot). They are not really discounted (ex-SIN) especially for a LCC. Cost is about $1300 for one way 5 hour flight SIN-PER in economy (vs $150-$300 pre-COVID), but might appear discounted ex-ATH as the add-on is only a few hundred $$ more, not being capped.

We have flights booked for next month (ex-SIN) so will see how we go, I am concerned that McGowan wants to cut intake, in which case we're screwed. But, we didn't book on Scoot code (refused to), being a LCC, all their fares, no matter the price are non refundable and any changes can only be on the same route. But we discovered you could book full economy (fully flexible) using the SQ code on Scoot with SQ ticketing conditions (and same price as SQ metal ) if it is combined with another SQ sector, which is MEL-SIN. I suspect this trick wouldn't work for anything involving a connection.

Yes I was getting a lot of MEL-SIN on scoot when I was looking at coming. Interestingly if I booked the higher priced biz flex (va biz standard) fare on the outbound sector (LHR to MEL) it allowed me to pick actual SQ flights outbound, if I selected the business standard only the scoot option (with accompanying class downgrade) was able to be selected to SIN.

Post automatically merged: Jul 2, 2021

Because an 18 year old can carry the virus and pass it on to someone who is far more vulnerable.

But that’s just not a reasonable position to take. Hello young person, you’re not allowed to have a vaccine because it’s too dangerous to you, but you’re also not allowed out because you’re unvaccinated and therefore a danger to others. You have to pick a team!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But that’s just not a reasonable position to take. Hello young person, you’re not allowed to have a vaccine because it’s too dangerous to you, but you’re also not allowed out because you’re unvaccinated and therefore a danger to others. You have to pick a team!

We're not allowed out even if vaccinated! But fair enough point if AZ was the only vaccine available. Pfizer is coming in October. With the 12 weeks between AZ doses you might as well wait for pfizer now.