Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[mviy]

I‘m not convinced they won’t open up Pfizer to older age groups next so I think I’ll take AZ on Monday and then be fully vaccinated early October. Then I will consider whether to put in another travel exemption request if there is not yet eased restrictions for travel from Australia to the UK.

 

[Pushka]

Absolutely false. NSW doesn’t quarantine any interstate travelers in hotels or elsewhere.

Neither does SA. It's home isolation only unless they turn positive.

 

[jakeseven7]

Neither does SA. It's home isolation only unless they turn positive.

The QLD CHO confirmed yesterday they still think it’s fine to mix low risk and high risk detainees.... hmmmm

 

[dajop]

The QLD CHO confirmed yesterday they still think it’s fine to mix low risk and high risk detainees.... hmmmm

Every CHO in Australia does.

Hint; not every traveller coming from overseas has the same level of risk.

(yes but I know what you mean).

 

[RAM]

He said a significant number of people had travelled on multiple occasions, including more than 1,300 who had left WA on two separate overseas trips and 500 people who had been abroad three times.

Mr McGowan said 82 people had been on four overseas trips, while eight people had left five times and two people six times.

"In other words, there's a large group of people who have been overseas on multiple occasions. And every time they go overseas, they increase the risk," he said.”

so 1892 people - 0.07% of the population of WA. It’s hardly a widespread problem is it? Spin at its finest.

Yes I agree your comment is spin at its finest!

In June there have been at least 7 quarantine breaches across Australia.

Some months back one of the Fed Health Dept people acknowledged that leaks had been occuring on a fairly regular basis that related to the number of international arrivals. Every X arrivals there was a leak.

Now back to WA, its arrivals limit is (I think as of yesterday) 530 people/week.

How many weeks' spots were taken up by frequent travellers? 1,300 x 2 + 500 x 3 + 82 x 4 + 8 x 5 + 2 x 6 = 4,480 places. That is roughly 8.5 weeks of available spaces. Some AFFers have posted about doing exactly that (departing multiple times but using false declarations).

Now there is nothing to have stopped the people in the WA numbers from also flying & returning out of Sydney or Melbourne & so not appearing in the WA figures. Some would say if you can afford to then why not!

Assuming this behaviour is typical Australia-wide then that equates to taking 57,057 places from 'vulnerable Australians' stranded overseas.

A figure around 50% larger than the current number of actual Australian citizens stranded overseas who are registered with DFAT. To put things into perspective.

Registered stranded Australians make up 0.22% of Australia's population.

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As you like capacity statistics - the weekly capacity available for arrivals in WA is less than 0.02% of the WA population.

 

[RAM]

one of the main problems of the whole covid situation is the double standard....
the QLD health lady really annoyed me, saying how she doesnt want an 18 year old dying from the vaccine when they would have been fine if they got covid ...
SO WHY ARE YOU LOCKING 18 YEAROLDS IN THEIR HOUSES

The flaw in your logic is trying to join two totally different issues.

Not everybody who speeds has a car accident. But speeding is banned as it is a country-wide leading cause of MVAs and deaths resulting & including injuries is estimated to cost in the low $$billions every year.

The lifelong risk to an otherwise healthy 18 yr old from developing TTS or the even more rare nervous system adverse side effect is many times the risks (as documented so far) from them if they contract CV.

Having a lockdown is akin to putting on a speed limit - in this case limiting the speed of potential transmission from one person to another.

18yr old drivers are legally prevented from driving at above 80kmh for a year (or more) and above 90kmh (for up to 3 years in some states) as well.

Why? Partly to decrease the risk to the 18yr old driver but mostly to protect the rest of the community due to the outsized risk under 25s make up MVA instigators.

Lockdown = speed limit. Only in this case the speed limit is applied to all age groups.

 

[mviy]

Berejiklian - "My heart goes out to thousands of Australians who will have to wait longer to come home."

Sounds like the arrivals caps have been cut which is sad news. It'll also mean that once restrictions are ready to ease there's a bigger backlog of those already overseas to clear.

I've been clinging to hopes of travel overseas at the end of the year and those slim chances are shrinking fast.

It seems every time there's good news (vaccine open to under 40s) it's not long before there's bad, illogical decisions made to cancel that out.

 

[kamchatsky]

Berejiklian - "My heart goes out to thousands of Australians who will have to wait longer to come home."

Sounds like the arrivals caps have been cut which is sad news. It'll also mean that once restrictions are ready to ease there's a bigger backlog of those already overseas to clear.

I've been clinging to hopes of travel overseas at the end of the year and those slim chances are shrinking fast.

It seems every time there's good news (vaccine open to under 40s) it's not long before there's bad, illogical decisions made to cancel that out.

That would be horrible if that is that case. That would mean border will remain shut for a long time.

Australia is now really going backwards.

 

[dajop]

50% reduction across the country. SD(*Q@#*)*@!)#*!@)*#!)@*(# ()!#@* expresses how I feel about this.

 

[RAM]

Absolutely false. NSW doesn’t quarantine any interstate travelers in hotels or elsewhere.

Please reread what I wrote.

What I posted is absolutely correct.

"Other states don't let them in at all. Which would you prefer?"

Your response has nothing to do with what I posted.

However as you have mentioned NSW. For those unclear, here is the process. Not quarantine just banning from entry unless....

NSW denies entry to anyone from interstate who has in an area covered by a lockdown order unless that person has received a specific exemption from that State's authorities to travel to NSW. NSW reserves the right to still deny entry despite another State Govt's approval.

From the web site; "If you are allowed to travel to NSW..."

 

[RAM]

Depends on the criteria doesn’t it. Who gets the opportunity to get into hotels? Just residents?

80% vaccination? Dreamin.

We need to assess what is happening with regards to hospitalisation in UK over the summer. If that number doesn't impact greatly on their health services then I sense the mood that is already on the move, will change greatly.

Adjusting the UK current figures to Australia's population would mean accepting around 40 deaths per week (current levels in UK).

On that basis - will not happen here.

If anyone has the inclination - what is the age breakdown of UK CV deaths recently?

That's something I have not seen discussed for some time. Very relevant to opening borders for travelling if current deaths are predominantly in the major travelling age group not the over 70s. Please no poison pen letters, just using the age cut-off most cited for 'at risk' globally.

 

[Kendall Roy]

Piss weak leadership! We can't run Quaratine/Vaccination Programs, so let's just grab the quick win headline!

I bet Students are still allowed to land!

 

[oznflfan]

Four phases to get out of COVID:

1. Get the country vaccinated as best we can.
2. 99% of adult population vaccinated - no state lockdowns.
3. 99.4% of adult population vaccinated - can travel oversea's with 21 day Hotel Quarantine (extended due to delta variant) pre-booked with 6 months notice and and pre-paid.
4. 99.8% of adult population vaccinated - can travel oversea's with 14 day Hotel Quarantine (extended due to delta variant) pre-booked with 6 months notice and and pre-paid.

 

[Batterytraveller]

There does appear to be a plan emerging, different caps for vaccinated travellers, trials of home quarantine.

 

[dajop]

There does appear to be a plan emerging, different caps for vaccinated travellers, trials of home quarantine.

Yes, but no timelines discussed. As always an announcement really about a future announcement.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Yes, but no timelines discussed. As always an announcement really about a future announcement.

Sadly yes, we retreat to move forward first.

 

[Kendall Roy]

Caps in place until end of year. That is brutal!

Time to stop all Non PR/Citizen arrivals into Aus, including students.
(Corrected)

 

[oznflfan]

Me being more realistic.

A lot of the western world is either open now or opening based on current 30-50% fully vaccinated. Let's call some parts of the world needing very high 60% to fully fully fully open.

First stage - no change to now.

Second stage - moot point as it will be 70-80% and unachievable. And even then no international travel.

Third and fourth point the same - third vaccinated international travellers, fourth unvaccinated open international travel. This fourth stage may be over 5 years away. Vaccination will be required for international travel the next 5+ years all over the world.

My prediction, this roadmap will be binned early-mid next year as another failed announcement.

 

[Batterytraveller]

My prediction, this roadmap will be binned early-mid next year as another failed announcement.

I think that you are almost certainly correct. For your next trick can you predict what religion the pope will be next year?

Ari Gold you need to check yourself, permanent residents have as much right to be in, and come to, Australia.

 

[bcworld]

Ari Gold you need to check yourself, permanent residents have as much right to be in, and come to, Australia.

Agreed. That's a ridiculous suggestion.