Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[trevella]

But looking at the latest breaches they have nothing to do with arrival quotas.

1. The limo driver who started Bondi Cluster was transporting freight air crew, we need to be able to receive air freight, so reducing quota does nothing to address this. The fix is to stop using private car servcies for transporting air crew and use dedicated state run vehicles with vacicnated drivers as they do for passenger arrivals.

2. The mining cluster was started because Qld Health put a low risk domestic traveller into a leaky hotel with overseas arrivals. The domestic traveller should never have been required to go into HQ. Reducing arrivals doent address this.

3. The Qld hospital cluster started because they allowed non vaccinated person to work next to the covid ward. Again reducing arrivals does nothing to address this.

4. The community spread has been made worse by selfish people going to work with symptoms and not getting tested early enough.

It is not right for some states to force other states to also reduce their quotas.

2 and 3 are of course wrong.

 

[Lynda2475]

2 and 3 are of course wrong.

Prove it.

The source of the mining cluster has been confirmed as a FIFO worker, who caught Covid at a Qld HQ. If a domestic traveller coming from an area with no community covid cases (not a federally defined hotspot) wasnt put into HQ where there were covid positives, they would not have caught Covid.

The admin worker at the Qld hospital was NOT vaccinated, yet working adjacent to a high risk Covid environment. She had symptoms but instead of getting tested goes on a holiday infecting her best friend and brother. If that worker was vaccinated and wore a mask, she would have been unlikley to have acquired covid.

If this is not what happened you better inform the Qld Premier and Qld CHO who have confirmed the sources of these cases.

Reducing international arrivals does nothing to address these types of events, as the failings were state decisions / policy failings. These failings could be addressed without halving international arrivals making everyone safer.

 

[oznflfan]

The Feds want higher caps, they need skilled migrants and students to return so I reckon home quarantine and stage 2 will be sooner than later, the Feds are the ones who will decide that and not the states. I have two OS trips booked in the next 12 months, the first is doubtful but I’m hopeful for May 2022 when home quarantine will be the normal for vaccinated.

Seems very little difference between Stages 2 and Stage 3, and in fact Stage 2 all the way to Stage 4 really.

I'm booking a return trip to Poland (direct flight via Singapore) in next few months, leaving Australia 1/7/2022. I think it's realistic, at least with home quarantine.

 

[JB expat]

We should have moved to home quarantine for vaccinated travellers months ago. That’s the solution to the quarantine problem but the states are not willing to agree to it. The government should be forcing them to agree to it.

And Victoria seems dead set against this

 

[dajop]

Reducing international arrivals does nothing to address these types of events, as the failings were state decisions / policy failings. These failings could be addressed without halving international arrivals making everyone safer.

Im beginning to form the view these cases were just noise. The decision to reduce international arrivals has been frustrating and quite aggravating for me. Things could and should have been done - and can- be done to reduce the risk from all three situations (Covid ward worker, quarantined domestic traveller, limo driver).

I suspect one escape that has the boffins worried, and led to yesterday’s course of action, is the West Melbourne (“Jervis Bay”) family who acquired a delta strain that is genomically linked to a returned traveller from Sri Lanka, yet have been unable to find (or unwilling to tell us) the link between the family and the traveller who had been quarantining, IIRC in the Novotel. Usually they can find links from various investigations including security footage.

 

[Lynda2475]

I suspect one escape that has the boffins worried is the West Melbourne (“Jervis Bay”) family that is genomically linked to a returned traveller from Sri Lanka, yet have been unable to find (or unwilling to tell us) the link between the family and the traveller who had been quarantining, IIRC in the Novotel. Usually they can find links from various investigations including security footage.

Vic got lucky that Limo outbreak happened in NSW taking focus of that one in the media. There is likely 1 or 2 people missing in that transmission chain.

 

[trevella]

2 and 3 are of course wrong.

Prove it.

You seriously can’t think of any way in which reducing arrivals would reduce those risks?

Fewer arrivals, fewer COVID cases in hotels and hospitals. Simples.

Whether or not such an approach is an utterly pathetic abrogation of responsibility to one’s citizens is an entirely different issue.

 

[openseat]

​

From the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of which Australia voted in favour of in 1948.​

Article 13​

1. Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state.
2. Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.

 

[Lynda2475]

You seriously can’t think of any way in which reducing arrivals would reduce those risks?

It only takes one positive arrival and those risks remain.

Fewer arrivals, fewer COVID cases in hotels and hospitals. Simples.

Thats over simplified and not a given by any means.

Lets look at some local numbers:

• Week 27 June - 3rd July, NSW took 3010 arrivals and 20 of those were covid positive, so a 0.66% positivity rate.
• The week before there were only 10 postives so a 0.33% positivity rate.
• Cutting arrivals to 1505 means that we reduce the likley positive case load to 5-10 per week not a materially different case load to manage.

Fixing known weaknesses like not putting low risk domestic travellers next to higher risk international arrivals and not allowing unvaccinated people to work in high risk environments will do far more to reduce community cases than reducing arrival caps will.

NSW has had leaks from HQ, as have SA, Vic, WA and Qld. Each time this happens we need to take the learnings and tighten the protocols to reduce future risk.

Note that there never been a leak from a NSW Medi hotel (where the positives are kept), the reason being that the protocols used there go well beyond the standards agreed at National Cabinet.

We dont need to have these redcued arrival limits, we just need every jurisdiction to do better and to learn from the best practices of the other states.

Its pathetic to choose to slash arrivals instead of fixing entirely fixable problems.

Why not keeping caps the same, but prefernce fully vaccinated arrivals by saying no more than 50% of arrivals in each state can be unvaccinated? Most of the people trying to return from the UK, US and Singapore are now fully vaccinated with vaccines taht are approved for use in Australia.

 

[jonboixxx]

https://humanrights.gov.au/about/covid19-and-human-rights/what-commissions-view-limiting-human-rights-during-covid-19

Interesting view of the Australian Human Rights Commission on restricting rights and freedoms during a pandemic.

 

[Chalkie]

​

From the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of which Australia voted in favour of in 1948.​

Article 13​

1. Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state.
2. Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.

Irrelevant in Australia. Not incorporated into Australian domestic law. It has no force of law in Australia and means nothing.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So Australians living overseas are second class citizens then?

I feel Australians living in Australia are being treated as second class citizens

Aussies living overseas are free to come and go as they please while we can't even leave. PRs living overseas are free to come and go as they please while we can't even leave.

A fairer system would be to treat all Aussies equally. If you are overseas you absolutely have the right of return... but once back you can't then leave again after your holiday. (Exemptions would apply for compassionate grounds, for example an Aussie returning to visit a dying family member.)

 

[louie-m]

No, just all the non-Australian citizens & non-permanent residents who have been arriving (between 10,000 to 17,000/month including on holiday visas).

Where does this figure come from? The cap is 6k a week atm and I've read Howard Springs has 800 "residents" so 400 per week. Say 28k per month. Seems highly unlikely to me that 35 - 60% of arrivals are non-citizens / non-PRs.

 

[ethernet]

It only takes one positive arrival and those risks remain.



Thats over simplified and not a given by any means.

Lets look at some local numbers:

• Week 27 June - 3rd July, NSW took 3010 arrivals and 20 of those were covid positive, so a 0.66% positivity rate.
• The week before there were only 10 postives so a 0.33% positivity rate.
• Cutting arrivals to 1505 means that we reduce the likley positive case load to 5-10 per week not a materially different case load to manage.

Fixing known weaknesses like not putting low risk domestic travellers next to higher risk international arrivals and not allowing unvaccinated people to work in high risk environments will do far more to reduce community cases than reducing arrival caps will.

NSW has had leaks from HQ, as have SA, Vic, WA and Qld. Each time this happens we need to take the learnings and tighten the protocols to reduce future risk.

Note that there never been a leak from a NSW Medi hotel (where the positives are kept), the reason being that the protocols used there go well beyond the standards agreed at National Cabinet.

We dont need to have these redcued arrival limits, we just need every jurisdiction to do better and to learn from the best practices of the other states.

Its pathetic to choose to slash arrivals instead of fixing entirely fixable problems.

Why not keeping caps the same, but prefernce fully vaccinated arrivals by saying no more than 50% of arrivals in each state can be unvaccinated? Most of the people trying to return from the UK, US and Singapore are now fully vaccinated with vaccines taht are approved for use in Australia.

Missing 'magic numbers' and invisible asterisks: Morrison's new plan isn't a step forward

Friday's national cabinet wasn't a step forward, it was but a stark illustration of the problems in our vaccination roll-out, writes Laura Tingle.

www.abc.net.au

On the money. A numerically and quantitatively defective 4 point plain is Nudge theory - Wikipedia

I think politically Morrison does not want to loose votes from those who can't get vaccinated, or who might be offended by vaccinated privileges. How dare the educated insist on qualitative and quantitative policy. You would think QF would push that barrow. One downside to that logical plan is WHO has approved some lesser vaccines.

The other is test on arrivals. At one stage Indian arrival tests were suspect - putting it mildly.

 

[jonboixxx]

Top doctor says full Australian vaccinations by year's end 'very realistic'

One of Australia's top doctors has said it's "very realistic" that everyone who wants to be fully vaccinate...

www.9news.com.au

Sensible commentary from the AMA President about forward vaccination numbers, to enable travel overseas, to coincide with countries that we want to visit.
I notice Uk where I would wish to travel to, still has 7 day average at 18 deaths per day. (JHU)

 

[mviy]

The thing is we could at least partially open to countries that can be trusted such as the UK and if they prove to be unwilling to fix any problems close down again, but the "plan" has no plan to do any of that in a timely manner.

Once the vaccination program has protected the vulnerable who are willing to get vaccinated and it would appear that on present numbers that most/all of those have had at least one dose already there's no reason we shouldn't be starting to ease restrictions in small but practical ways that begin to make a difference and provide hope of further to come.

 

[Kimpos]

Missing 'magic numbers' and invisible asterisks: Morrison's new plan isn't a step forward

Friday's national cabinet wasn't a step forward, it was but a stark illustration of the problems in our vaccination roll-out, writes Laura Tingle.

www.abc.net.au

On the money. A numerically and quantitatively defective 4 point plain is Nudge theory - Wikipedia

I think politically Morrison does not want to loose votes from those who can't get vaccinated, or who might be offended by vaccinated privileges. How dare the educated insist on qualitative and quantitative policy. You would think QF would push that barrow. One downside to that logical plan is WHO has approved some lesser vaccines.

The other is test on arrivals. At one stage Indian arrival tests were suspect - putting it mildly.

She also correctly points out that the announcement reflects that Australia actually moved backwards

 

[senorgreg]

We have to learn to live with this virus. Once I’m vaccinated flying overseas to a place with high vaccination rates like the UK, coming home after testing negative and being taken by a fully vaccinated driver back to my home and quarantining there poses almost zero risk to the community. It’s not at all unreasonable. Add in some appropriate safeguards like a bond before departure and maybe ankle bracelets and it should work fine.

I just want to re-emphasise this comment. I am struggling to understand why Australia cannot offer allow fully vaccinated travellers to go overseas and return home with a secure home quarantine on arrival. I see no current reason why this could not be available this year. We need to find safe and reasonable ways to slowly reopen and encourage vaccination.

 

[oznflfan]

I just want to re-emphasise this comment. I am struggling to understand why Australia cannot offer allow fully vaccinated travellers to go overseas and return home with a secure home quarantine on arrival. I see no current reason why this could not be available this year. We need to find safe and reasonable ways to slowly reopen and encourage vaccination.

It'll come, cross fingers for Alan Joyce's 19/12/21 date, but more likely sometime in 2022. Be very surprised with ''opening'' and ''living with the virus'' groundswell really building in last week or two if it is later that July 2022.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I just want to re-emphasise this comment. I am struggling to understand why Australia cannot offer allow fully vaccinated travellers to go overseas and return home with a secure home quarantine on arrival. I see no current reason why this could not be available this year. We need to find safe and reasonable ways to slowly reopen and encourage vaccination.

Because its too early to be giving vaccine privileges. Wait until at least 6 weeks after everyone has been allowed to access vaccines (ie open to all ages), and they need to formulate how to treat kids that aren't allowed (because they can still get covid and spread it)