Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pom-DownUnder]

Because its too early to be giving vaccine privileges. Wait until at least 6 weeks after everyone has been allowed to access vaccines (ie open to all ages), and they need to formulate how to treat kids that aren't allowed (because they can still get covid and spread it)

This is like the NBN all over again, living in the capital city and being told you have to wait because the three farmers that chose to live out in the middle of alice springs havent got their fiber yet.

1A and 1B were there for a reason, to protect the vulnerable, anyone that was really hanging out to get a vaccine because they were worried due to their health or age ... has got it ... they have had that opportunity.

a mid-step milestone say end of august, allow vaccinated people to travel and home Q for 7 days. THAT will really boost the willingness of people to run the absolute fear filled nightmareish gauntlet of 1 in 1,500,000 chance of AZ fatality.

 

[dajop]

It'll come, cross fingers for Alan Joyce's 19/12/21 date, but more likely sometime in 2022.

19/12/21 is not going to happen. That was clear after the events of Friday.

 

[jakeseven7]

19/12/21 is not going to happen. That was clear after the events of Friday.

Apparently a couple of the QLD government press conferences have been mashed into memes, videos and circulated widely on Wechat and TikTok labelling Queenslanders as racists to some of our biggest tourism markets...

I hope this doesn’t dent demand in the future and impact international flight schedules.

 

[N860CR]

This is like the NBN all over again, living in the capital city and being told you have to wait because the three farmers that chose to live out in the middle of alice springs havent got their fiber yet.

Or like the young (who the Qld CHO admitted this week we’re really not as risk from COVID) having to “lockdown” for 18 months.

It’s not entirely fair, but I don’t think it’s entirely reasonable to wait until everyone has had the chance before removing some restrictions. Home quarantine for vaccinated people would present close to zero community risk.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Or like the young (who the Qld CHO admitted this week we’re really not as risk from COVID) having to “lockdown” for 18 months.

It’s not entirely fair, but I don’t think it’s entirely reasonable to wait until everyone has had the chance before removing some restrictions. Home quarantine for vaccinated people would present close to zero community risk.

I watched QandA this morning and its a near miracle my screens survived the ordeal without being obliterated into several million pieces.

When they were talking about how its going to be so important to make sure kids are vaccinated ... you mean the people that are statically immune to serious consequence from the coof .....

 

[mviy]

Once the vulnerable have been vaccinated if they want to be we should be then beginning to ease restrictions. By the end of the year everyone who wants to should be vaccinated anyway. I just hope they set a realistic vaccination target to open up, not something totally unachievable.

 

[Pushka]

Please let this be the future.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Please let this be the future.


View attachment 252061

I think it needs another week or so on the bottom graph to see if there's a corresponding increase in the death rate? There's an extra week of 'new cases' vs 'daily deaths'.

 

[burmans]

I saw a headline today but didn't read further that all those dying in the US recently hadn't had the vaccine. Now I cant find, anyone here know where that might have been? That's the trouble with news services I see so many headlines that's it difficult to read all of them on a timely basis.

Edit, ok found it.

99% of New COVID Deaths Are Unvaccinated - MedicineNet Health News

Unvaccinated people now account for nearly all COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, federal government figures show.

www.medicinenet.com

 

[The man with no name]

I watched QandA this morning and its a near miracle my screens survived the ordeal without being obliterated into several million pieces.

When they were talking about how its going to be so important to make sure kids are vaccinated ... you mean the people that are statically immune to serious consequence from the coof .....

Perhaps you don't understand that our community will not reach herd immunity while a substantial percentage of Australians remain unvaccinated.

Kids may not die from COVID but they can infect others.

 

[RAM]

We should have moved to home quarantine for vaccinated travellers months ago. That’s the solution to the quarantine problem but the states are not willing to agree to it. The government should be forcing them to agree to it.

However in NSW yesterday it turned out that one, possibly two close contacts who were supposed to in home isolation - decided to go out instead. Reported by Kerry Chant this morning. Similarly last week also in Sydney a man & a female acquaintance living several suburbs away decided to ignore the lockdown & drive to the Hunter Valley.

Those are just the ones who have been caught. The home isolation ones were uncoverded as they infected others, they lied repeatedly but they were exposed by the people they infected.

Also home quarantine does not stop people coming to see you illicitly.

Potentially could work for single people travelling but not if the international arrrival was say an adult child in a family of 3 or 4 or more as that would then require all to home isolate etc.

No easy, non-purpose built quarantine facility, answers.

 

[RAM]

But looking at the latest breaches they have nothing to do with arrival quotas.

1. The limo driver who started Bondi Cluster was transporting freight air crew, we need to be able to receive air freight, so reducing quota does nothing to address this. The fix is to stop using private car servcies for transporting air crew and use dedicated state run vehicles with vacicnated drivers as they do for passenger arrivals.

2. The mining cluster was started because Qld Health put a low risk domestic traveller into a leaky hotel with overseas arrivals. The domestic traveller should never have been required to go into HQ. Reducing arrivals doent address this.

3. The Qld hospital cluster started because they allowed non vaccinated person to work next to the covid ward. Again reducing arrivals does nothing to address this.

4. The community spread has been made worse by selfish people going to work with symptoms and not getting tested early enough.

It is not right for some states to force other states to also reduce their quotas.

As Australia (un)officially has a zero CV target. Then every case that appears arrives from overseas. One Fed Health Dept figure mentioned that there is one HQ breach every 250 (was it?) positive CV cases in quarantine since 31 October 2020. Halving the quota, ceteric paribus, should halve the time frequency for breaches.

A 50% reduction is significant.

You may have missed it but it was confirmed Friday June 25th that the limo driver did NOT catch CV from the FedEx air crew. None of the air crew tested positive. The theory that was raised, before Brad Hazzard abruptly ended the media conference, was that he caught it at the Cafe in Vaucluse which has seen so many cases & fits the super spreader profile.

Domestic infected people, such as a domestic flight attendant, have spread the virus within Australia = need for people coming from an 'open infection' area need to be either stopped from entry (NSW approach as posted yesterday) or made to go into HQ. Agree, ideally purpose built facilities instead of repurposed tourist hotels are needed - but that requires the Fed Govt stepping up to the plate.

For some reason that's not happening. The NT Govt has been made responsible for operation of the so-called Federal centre outside of Darwin & the Fed Govt is/was to have no Federal staff involved.

I cannot understand why, given the generally rapid turnaround of international aircrew that prefab huts were not installed in international airport parking garages so there is no transportation required. The parking buildings are not being used much at all & on-site suitably created separate cabins would appear to solve nearly all issues/requirements set out by the Fed Govt for a Fed Quarantine facility. Perhaps as Federal Police would officially have legal juristiction = the reason why not done.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Perhaps you don't understand that our community will not reach herd immunity while a substantial percentage of Australians remain unvaccinated.

Kids may not die from COVID but they can infect others.

perhaps you dont understand that if the age group that actually dies from covid is immunised it doesnt matter if kids have a few coughs and colds around them

 

[The man with no name]

perhaps you dont understand that if the age group that actually dies from covid is immunised it doesnt matter if kids have a few coughs and colds around them

How do you think my 40 yo sister who has a life threatening condition and cannot be vaccinated will fair if she gets COVID-19 off your kid? Do you think there are others in our community that may be in the same boat?

Herd immunity depends on your kids being vaccinated in the same way as your childs education relies on other Australians doing the right thing and paying their taxes.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

How do you think my 40 yo sister who has a life threatening condition and cannot be vaccinated will fair if she gets COVID-19 off your kid? Do you think there are others in our community that may be in the same boat?

Herd immunity depends on your kids being vaccinated in the same way as your childs education relies on other Australians doing the right thing and paying their taxes.

While I have sympathy for your situation and without going into my own, we cannot make national policy based on 0.000001% of the population. If she has that threatening a condition, is immunocompromised and is unable to be vaccinated then i probably should have added another zero, but my advice would be for her not to be around children at all as they are germ factories.

 

[JB expat]

While I have sympathy for your situation and without going into my own, we cannot make national policy based on 0.000001% of the population. If she has that threatening a condition, is immunocompromised and is unable to be vaccinated then i probably should have added another zero, but my advice would be for her not to be around children at all as they are germ factories.

But you can make national policy based on the scientific definition of herd immunity - which, by definition, must take children (all humans) into account. Herd immunity is something more than "covid normal", it is aimed towards national and then global eradication. This is a perfectly reasonable long term goal. Once vaccines have been tested for lower aged humans, then those that don't have a medical reason for not getting them, should get one. The goal of global eradication applies to measles, polio and a number of other diseases and we have seen what happens when the number of unvaccinated by choice increases - it isn't good.

 

[roogirl]

But you can make national policy based on the scientific definition of herd immunity - which, by definition, must take children (all humans) into account. Herd immunity is something more than "covid normal", it is aimed towards national and then global eradication. This is a perfectly reasonable long term goal. Once vaccines have been tested for lower aged humans, then those that don't have a medical reason for not getting them, should get one. The goal of global eradication applies to measles, polio and a number of other diseases and we have seen what happens when the number of unvaccinated by choice increases - it isn't good.

Herd immunity is not going to happen for years. It took decades to get immunity to measles and polio. I have great sympathy for your sister’s circumstances but public policy simply cannot be beholden to the tiny number of people like her.

 

[roogirl]

However in NSW yesterday it turned out that one, possibly two close contacts who were supposed to in home isolation - decided to go out instead. Reported by Kerry Chant this morning. Similarly last week also in Sydney a man & a female acquaintance living several suburbs away decided to ignore the lockdown & drive to the Hunter Valley.

Those are just the ones who have been caught. The home isolation ones were uncoverded as they infected others, they lied repeatedly but they were exposed by the people they infected.

Also home quarantine does not stop people coming to see you illicitly.

Potentially could work for single people travelling but not if the international arrrival was say an adult child in a family of 3 or 4 or more as that would then require all to home isolate etc.

No easy, non-purpose built quarantine facility, answers.

Ankle tags would deal with the leaving problem. Fines/systems where people come to check at random times should sort out the people coming in (esp if you can genomically sequence anyone and link them). It is eminently doable. Most vaxxed travellers won’t actually have covid. And in a non zero covid world you’re not worried about the odd person slipping the net.

 

[JB expat]

Herd immunity is not going to happen for years. It took decades to get immunity to measles and polio. I have great sympathy for your sister’s circumstances but public policy simply cannot be beholden to the tiny number of people like her.

1 - not my sister
2 - yes, herd immunity takes years but why does this mean anyone should be able to drag their feet?

Post automatically merged: Jul 4, 2021

Ankle tags would deal with the leaving problem. Fines/systems where people come to check at random times should sort out the people coming in (esp if you can genomically sequence anyone and link them). It is eminently doable. Most vaxxed travellers won’t actually have covid. And in a non zero covid world you’re not worried about the odd person slipping the net.

I think a $5-10,000 bond would do the trick. That's a lot to lose for most.

 

[Lynda2475]

You may have missed it but it was confirmed Friday June 25th that the limo driver did NOT catch CV from the FedEx air crew.

Actually that is not what was said at all. I watched that broadcast. Dr Chant confirmed authorities hadn’t been able to definitively confirm (thats is very different to ruling it out) the limo driver was patient zero, but his genome sequencing matched that of the Delta variant that had been recorded in the US.

Other countries dont have the same test regimes for air crew, so we may never get a test result to provide an exact link to an individual, but that doesnt mean they were not the source.

“Obviously at the beginning when we have a diagnosis in someone who transports flight crew, I think that it is reasonable that we would make that assumption, and that is probably on strong epidemiological grounds, that that is likely to be the hypothesis,” she said.

When asked about the limos driver claim that he caught it at the cafe, Dr Chantt gave it no credence and that he should come forward if he had extra information to share but they had not found in any of the testing done here an earlier genomic link than the drivers.

You need to remember at that time the driver was being threatened with legal action so in his interests to circulate another theory to cast doubt on where he got to dflect from not wearing PPE, being vaccinated or testign regularly.

The flight crew remains the assumed source.