Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Matt_01]

Considering 50-59 can now get Pfizer hopefully in the next 3 months or so both of these will be at over 70% fully vaccinated.

With the uptick in pfizer arrivals I would like to think this is possible. I would not hold my breath, I got the AZ jab as soon as I could and now 2/3rds of the way to get the second dose. MrsM (50) fell into the govt rule change and can get Pfizer, she is booked in and will be fully vaccinated at about the same time I am. MrsM also works in the health sector and mentioned the other day how many no shows there are (I cannot remember the number) for the first jab. Maybe, just maybe the hubs could cut back the opening hours for the first jab by 45-60 minutes and allow walk in's of any age at the end of the day.

 

[burmans]

We already have over 70% of the over 70s with a first dose (Most of these would have had AZ). We have over 55% of 50+ with a first dose. Considering 50-59 can now get Pfizer hopefully in the next 3 months or so both of these will be at over 70% fully vaccinated.

In my opinion once that’s achieved they should set a date to open the borders providing enough time for the rest of the vulnerable to get a vaccine if they wish. However, I suspect they may be more cautious than that.

Sounds like wishful thinking to me. While politicians have been reluctant to name figures all I have heard have been well north of this. And it’s only those trying to spin the story who talk about first doses, we are going to need two or even possibly three before borders get open.

 

[mviy]

The thing is if you have had a first dose you are due for the second within 3 months for AZ (or 3 weeks for Pfizer). The PM himself on ACA tonight said that 100% vaccination is completely unrealistic. He mentioned that only Israel has higher than 65 per cent for two doses. However, he also noted that other countries have had a much higher percentage of the population get antibodies from catching the virus itself than down here.

We need to see what they announce for the 4 stage plan targets to see if they are being realistic or unrealistic. What I think most here want to see is what makes home quarantine realistic to a level where travel restrictions are significantly relaxed for vaccinated Australians so we can travel and do home quarantine on return with a degree of certainty that we are likely to be able to get home within a week of when we booked to come home.

 

[hb13]

We need more stories like this in the media to highlight what is going on:

‘People don’t care’: Stranded Australians despair

National cabinet’s decision to halve the international arrivals cap has left tens of thousands of Australians stranded overseas to deal with cancelled flights, dwindling savings and months of torturous uncertainty.

www.news.com.au

 

[drron]

But let's not think that just cos some of us (10%) after vaxd that we deserve super privileges.
Visit this beautiful country, beyond the capital cities & you'll find really great places. Exmouth...
Then again I can hear team indo coming where you can save a few Bob by holidaying in a 3rd world country.
Ah.

But but I did book accommodation in Exmouth this year.Never got to stay.

I am thinking that rather than totally opening the border I think it will happen for Australians just before or after the Election depending on what the polling is saying.I did see a newspoll this week where 45% thought Australians should be able to leave.That figure doesn't have to get much higher before exemptions for vaccinated people for at least family reunions will happen.In fact I am more confident of being able to fly to SIN in Feb rather than being able to take our Christmas trip on the Indian pacific to Perth.And I rate our Feb trip at about 10% chance of happening.

We would have no problems with 14 day home quarantine as I will be fully retired then.Woollies and coles deliver as well as Dans so all bases covered.

 

[Pushka]

But but I did book accommodation in Exmouth this year.Never got to stay.

I am thinking that rather than totally opening the border I think it will happen for Australians just before or after the Election depending on what the polling is saying.I did see a newspoll this week where 45% thought Australians should be able to leave.That figure doesn't have to get much higher before exemptions for vaccinated people for at least family reunions will happen.In fact I am more confident of being able to fly to SIN in Feb rather than being able to take our Christmas trip on the Indian pacific to Perth.And I rate our Feb trip at about 10% chance of happening.

We would have no problems with 14 day home quarantine as I will be fully retired then.Woollies and coles deliver as well as Dans so all bases covered.

Agree. Our only non impacted but still very restricted Covid health environment trip was Cairns last August. Any further trips interstate have been impacted by testing and iso on return, or outright cancellation. Might just as well save my money for overseas when it opens because Australian states don't want other state's money.

 

[Seat0B]

Agree. Our only non impacted but still very restricted Covid health environment was Cairns last August. Any further trips interstate have been impacted by testing and iso on return, or outright cancellation. Might just as well save my money for overseas when it opens because Australian states don't want other state's money.

That’s what I’m doing.

 

[mviy]

If I didn’t have family and friends interstate that’s what I’d be strongly considering doing except for any flights needed for status extension.

Though I suspect vaccination status may help with domestic travel before it does for international except for the few enrolled in the home quarantine trial.

 

[Seat0B]

If I didn’t have family and friends interstate that’s what I’d be strongly considering doing except for any flights needed for status extension.

Though I suspect vaccination status may help with domestic travel before it does for international except for the few enrolled in the home quarantine trial.

And I do have family in Qld but I’m still unwilling to spend my money thereafter how Qld politics has been. DefinItely saving my money and points now for overseas travel whenever/if ever the border opens.

 

[ayushamity]

Posted in the other thread but SA likely trialing home quarantine with returning SA Para- olympians and ADF personnel next month.

I heard its September. if it gets approved, (this is the key here) STATES have the option of taking it on board (i.e. it is not up to the feds but each State Premier).

Thank God I live in NSW. Imagine if you lived in WA,..no way would he agree to home quarantine

So you could have the situation where states like NSW and SA are doing home quarantine but QLD and WA are not doing home quarantine LOL

 

[mviy]

I maintain that they need to link allowing international students back to allowing home quarantine or other similar incentives for the states to allow home quarantine. The Feds can deny approval to bring back international students if states aren't willing to bring back Australians.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I maintain that they need to link allowing international students back to allowing home quarantine or other similar incentives for the states to allow home quarantine. The Feds can deny approval to bring back international students if states aren't willing to bring back Australians.

Just checking at the moment the trial is for Australians (ie citizens/PR, etc) who got vaccinated in Australia to trial home quarantine in SA. Let's not jump too far before success is even reached on the trial.

Because the spotlight will be on the home quarantine and the people are slightly higher profile, it should be high quality, but they will have to work on issues like potential non-compliance (eg leaving home, having visitors, etc).

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Just checking at the moment the trial is for Australians (ie citizens/PR, etc) who got vaccinated in Australia to trial home quarantine in SA. Let's not jump too far before success is even reached on the trial.

Because the spotlight will be on the home quarantine and the people are slightly higher profile, it should be high quality, but they will have to work on issues like potential non-compliance (eg leaving home, having visitors, etc).

I really think even if they bend the rules slightly that their misbehaviour would have minimal impact with their lower likelihood of both contracting and spreading the virus

 

[mviy]

Just checking at the moment the trial is for Australians (ie citizens/PR, etc) who got vaccinated in Australia to trial home quarantine in SA. Let's not jump too far before success is even reached on the trial.

Because the spotlight will be on the home quarantine and the people are slightly higher profile, it should be high quality, but they will have to work on issues like potential non-compliance (eg leaving home, having visitors, etc).

Yes, home quarantine is just for Australians, but if it's successful, the Feds could link approving hotel style quarantine for international students in large numbers for states to allowing home quarantine for Australians in the same states. To have a situation where large numbers of international students can come in, but not Australians probably wouldn't work well for the Feds.

At some point the Feds have to try to use some carrots and sticks to encourage the states to get onboard with Federal policy by rewarding those that do. Say NSW allows home quarantine and is allowed to bring in lots of international students, but VIC doesn't want home quarantine and isn't allowed to bring back large numbers of international students, the university sector would put pressure on the government to change their policy.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I really think even if they bend the rules slightly that their misbehaviour would have minimal impact with their lower likelihood of both contracting and spreading the virus

Ever pause to think that's the type of attitude that got Sydney to where it is.

Oh, I'm doing essential shopping - oops I just infected Bunnings/Coles/Woolworths.
Oh, I'm doing exercise with my family - in a small park with 10s of other families with the same idea.
Oh, I'm only speeding little bit, I won't kill anyone/myself.
Oh, I'm vaccinated, the rules don't apply to me.
Oh, I'm vaccinated, I should be in home quarantine, if I just pop over to say hi someone, I am very low risk of spreading covid.

 

[mviy]

A $5k to $10k bond for home quarantine payable before boarding the flight home (or before departing Australia even) should do the trick with electronic monitoring and random spot checks from police and/or ADF.

If police went you'd only need one policeman to go to a house if they can go with someone from the ADF. So ADF support could enable the police to check up on twice as many people with the same number of police.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

A $5k to $10k bond for home quarantine payable before boarding the flight home (or before departing Australia even) should do the trick with electronic monitoring and random spot checks from police and/or ADF.

If police went you'd only need one policeman to go to a house if they can go with someone from the ADF. So ADF support could enable the police to check up on twice as many people with the same number of police.

Have you seen the number of stranded Aussies say they can't afford $20k for business flights for a family back to Australia - then add $5k or thereabouts for hotel quarantine.

$10k bond each is a sizeable amount, but at least that way you might know which trips are "essential".

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Ever pause to think that's the type of attitude that got Sydney to where it is.

nope, apples and oranges, and i think you also need to weigh in the idea that people who have pushed ahead early to get vaccinated are not the 'lets have a party with 8 people during a lockdown' sort.

 

[mviy]

Have you seen the number of stranded Aussies say they can't afford $20k for business flights for a family back to Australia - then add $5k or thereabouts for hotel quarantine.

$10k bond each is a sizeable amount, but at least that way you might know which trips are "essential".

You could make the bond apply only to those looking to depart Australia now for reasons outside the existing reasons to leave and for things like business trips. It doesn't need to be an approach of bonds for everyone or no one approach. Also, if people go for compassionate reasons and don't want to pay the bond they could be allowed to do hotel quarantine instead if they can get flights within the caps. There's ways of making it work.

 

[DC3]

Posted in the other thread but SA likely trialing home quarantine with returning SA Para- olympians and ADF personnel next month.

We can count the returning Paras out for a while. Their games don’t start until 24th August.