Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jb747]

It's the insurance companies that will have the bigger impact IMHO. No vaccine, no travel insurance! I think this will have a bigger impact than anything the PM says.

I'd expect that there's a very high percentage of passengers who do not have travel insurance, so the impact will only be limited to those who would normally take it. In the end, most countries will simply not accept arrivals without vaccination, and many, perhaps most, airlines will require it as a condition of carriage.

But, those who are holding us back are unlikely to be overseas travellers anyway.

 

[drron]

TRAVEL PREDICTIONS JUST GOT A WHOLE LOT WORSE
I read somewhere(Gladys?), that when we hit 80% vaccinations, lock-downs will be less likely. There are also nondeterministic qualifiers like states have agreed 'in principle' sprinkled in. I think AFF people can guess what WA and Vic might do. UK opened up at 70%, and that is costly with some breakthrough hospitalization expenses for NHS. But not so many deaths. 80% is a very, very high target. If you set it that high, you should set a penalty for those who opt out, and put others at risk.

Very few countries reached 70% vaccinated. I don't see .au hitting 80% without some gentle prods being applied. And NOTHING about post 80% quarantine or no-quarantine. All up in the air.
The PM should announce, those not vaccinated will not be allowed to fly overseas. Furthermore you have to wait some months after your final shot.

I think PM will not say this , because it makes bringing in overseas workers/ low skilled laborers/students problematical .

But 2 days after freedom day the UK numbers started dropping.hospitalisations and deaths lag but almost certainly will follow.
.

WA has already come out and said they will ‘run their own race’… which is sad because they are already coming last

Sorry but in outbreaks isn't QLD running last.14 outbreaks in 6 weeks with this last outbreak possibly being the 5th to have the initial community transmission being from a QLD hospital?

 

[flydoc]

But 2 days after freedom day the UK numbers started dropping.hospitalisations and deaths lag but almost certainly will follow.
View attachment 254410.

As has been noted elsewhere, hopefully jurisdictions and media increasingly look beyond case numbers to the more reliable hospitalisation and death numbers to inform decision making and reporting.

Don't be fooled by the UK’s plummeting COVID infection numbers, scientists say

After England abandoned all restrictions, scientists braced themselves for viral disaster. But two weeks later, UK infections are plummeting. So what is really happening behind the numbers?

www.abc.net.au

 

[drron]

As has been noted elsewhere, hopefully jurisdictions and media increasingly look beyond case numbers to the more reliable hospitalisation and death numbers to inform decision making and reporting.

Don't be fooled by the UK’s plummeting COVID infection numbers, scientists say

After England abandoned all restrictions, scientists braced themselves for viral disaster. But two weeks later, UK infections are plummeting. So what is really happening behind the numbers?

www.abc.net.au

But as I posted in another thread even hospitalisations may be misleading.The figures from the NHS suggest that at least some "covid" admissions are for other problems.The NHS charts were very complicated so I used this article even though the headline is thoroughly misleading it does suggest up to 13% of covid admissions may not really be due to covid.

More than half of Covid hospital patients 'only tested positive after admission'

'People are worried and scared and not really understanding the true picture – that is what I find despicable.'

metro.co.uk

As usual there are just as many opinions as there are experts.

 

[bernardblack]

WA has already come out and said they will ‘run their own race’… which is sad because they are already coming last

Sorry but in outbreaks isn't QLD running last.14 outbreaks in 6 weeks with this last outbreak possibly being the 5th to have the initial community transmission being from a QLD hospital?

[Homer Simpson voice] They're both losers!

 

[FoothillFlyer]

I want to thank my fellow AFF members for the constant updates on the international border status. It is difficult to find information elsewhere for the current border status. For the past twenty years we have spent a month in Port Douglas to decompress after a hectic year practicing law, and this (so far) two year involuntary hiatus has been very painful. We are in California and fully vaccinated, but I have not seen a movement towards a trans-border acknowledgment of this status at all that we will ultimately be able to use to travel. We love, love, love Australia and its people and we have so many friends there, but the lack of progress has frustrated us to no end.

 

[Seat0B]

I want to thank my fellow AFF members for the constant updates on the international border status. It is difficult to find information elsewhere for the current border status. For the past twenty years we have spent a month in Port Douglas to decompress after a hectic year practicing law, and this (so far) two year involuntary hiatus has been very painful. We are in California and fully vaccinated, but I have not seen a movement towards a trans-border acknowledgment of this status at all that we will ultimately be able to use to travel. We love, love, love Australia and its people and we have so many friends there, but the lack of progress has frustrated us to no end.

Welcome to posting @FoothillFlyer - decided to dip your toe in the water after a long membership, I see!

And yes it is so very frustrating isn't it. And yes, this is a great source of information.

After a military posting in the USA in the 1990s, we have many friends all over the USA and cannot wait until we can visit once again. Hoping that better days are ahead for us all.

 

[focusedbear]

It looks like HK will open up to fully vaccinated non-residents (from non-high risk countries) soon, albeit with hotel quarantine still in place - 7 days if you take an antibody test. That said, it's a gradual yet very pragmatic approach and more than likely has the (implicit) approval of the Chinese government. It should be noted that UK is considered high risk by the HK authorities.

Australia is going to fall behind and that will have detrimental economic and social impacts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1422115580589461508

 

[dajop]

It looks like HK will open up to fully vaccinated non-residents (from non-high risk countries) soon, albeit with hotel quarantine still in place - 7 days if you take an antibody test. That said, it's a gradual yet very pragmatic approach and more than likely has the (implicit) approval of the Chinese government. It should be noted that UK is considered high risk by the HK authorities.

Australia is going to fall behind and that will have detrimental economic and social impacts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1422115580589461508

Meanwhile, despite the rhetoric that Singapore is looking to open up somewhat in September, for Australia - regardless of where in Australia - they've tightened up, such that anyone who's been in Australia - regardless of whether it's Fairfield, NSW or Fremantle, it's 14 days in either home quarantine or hotel. Notable that last year, it had different restrictions for Victoria and "the rest". This year no such thing, after all Sydney = Australia

I'd be really quite annoyed if I was in WA, after all the number of news cases they've had in the community in the last 6 months is about 10% of the number of new cases that Singapore gets in a day right now.

 

[Seat0B]

Meanwhile, despite the rhetoric that Singapore is looking to open up somewhat in September, for Australia - regardless of where in Australia - they've tightened up, such that anyone who's been in Australia - regardless of whether it's Fairfield, NSW or Fremantle, it's 14 days in either home quarantine or hotel. Notable that last year, it had different restrictions for Victoria and "the rest". This year no such thing, after all Sydney = Australia

I'd be really quite annoyed if I was in WA, after all the number of news cases they've had in the community in the last 6 months is about 10% of the number of new cases that Singapore gets in a day right now.

Or the ACT with 0 cases for 13 months.

 

[JB expat]

Beginning to feel like the answer to the original question posed is closer to "never" than anything else.

As it happened: NSW records 199 new local COVID-19 cases; Queensland records 16 new cases

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian hopes vaccination will be her state’s ticket out of lockdown, Queensland’s stay-at-home orders have been extended and Victoria hopes to welcome back AFL crowds as early as next week.

www.theage.com.au

 

[jrfsp]

Whats even more interesting is the restrictions in place with the new modelling.

Doherty modelling slides

www.documentcloud.org

In many parts of the country the restrictions are greater with 80% vaccination than what's currently in place, so who would be opening borders to have "low level restrictions" including track and trace, social distancing, capacity limits etc

 

[oznflfan]

Beginning to feel like the answer to the original question posed is closer to "never" than anything else.

As it happened: NSW records 199 new local COVID-19 cases; Queensland records 16 new cases

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian hopes vaccination will be her state’s ticket out of lockdown, Queensland’s stay-at-home orders have been extended and Victoria hopes to welcome back AFL crowds as early as next week.

www.theage.com.au

View attachment 254487

Purposely vague.

The way I read it is once we get to 80% Vaccinations (which we never will) we can travel internationally to:

A) If vaccinated, no quarantine if you visit safe countries (countries with vaccination and infection rates similar or better to Australia when we finally get freed - maybe Europe, USA, parts of Asia).

B) If vaccinated, home quarantine for potentially 7 or even 14 days if non safe countries (India/South America/etc).

C) If vaccinated or unvaccinated, no quarantine for travel bubble countries (New Zealand and Pacific Islands if and when they come back onsong). Personally travel bubble idea had some merits in 2021, but will be a dead duck in 2022, as COVID will be all over Australia when we open borders.

 

[Seat0B]

Beginning to feel like the answer to the original question posed is closer to "never" than anything else.

Rant warning.
My personal outlook today is particularly gloomy, given the cancellation of Seat Son's flight DXB-SIN-SYD for 14-15 August. So feel free to take take my post with a grain of bitter personal disappointment.

I stand by my earlier predication of 12th of Never.

This border closure nonsense has just become totally entrenched as an acceptable or even laudable situation by cowardly politicians and fearful citizens. It is totally clear that no one in authority actually gives a stuff about how it is impacting people like me and the many others who post here with family overseas, or who are overseas and have family here. We have no rights at all; our families do not matter at all. And I'm sick to beyond saying of all the people on here who post about "wanting to travel" as equating to "wanting to see family", and then try to make out that it is selfish to want to see family. It's not selfish. Family is everything and some of us are being denied that comfort, over and over, with no end in sight.

The adoption of a hard "80% must be vaccinated" position to even open up in some way means we will all be held hostage in Gulag/Stalag/Fortress Australia by the inevitable 20% holdouts.

And now that so many children are getting it in QLD, I confidently predict that the next thing will be "oh well 80% of the eligible population have been vaccinated, but now we have to protect the vulnerable children". Then it will be "oh but now there is the Iota variant, or the Theta Variant, or the Sigma Variant, so we will all have to get re-vaccinated/booster shots" which will lead to more delays and a drop off in people's willingness to get shots as it just goes on ad infinitum into the future.

We are never going to get out of this. Well maybe in 3-5 years more we might, possibly. But earlier than that is now a 0% chance in my opinion.

The first politician to announce a hard date for opening up, or to announce "a percentage that have been offered a vaccine, whether they choose to take it or not" will get my vote.

Rant completed.

 

[I love to travel]

Rant warning.
My personal outlook today is particularly gloomy, given the cancellation of Seat Son's flight DXB-SIN-SYD for 14-15 August. So feel free to take take my post with a grain of bitter personal disappointment.

I stand by my earlier predication of 12th of Never.

This border closure nonsense has just become totally entrenched as an acceptable or even laudable situation by cowardly politicians and fearful citizens. It is totally clear that no one in authority actually gives a stuff about how it is impacting people like me and the many others who post here with family overseas, or who are overseas and have family here. We have no rights at all; our families do not matter at all. And I'm sick to beyond saying of all the people on here who post about "wanting to travel" as equating to "wanting to see family", and then try to make out that it is selfish to want to see family. It's not selfish. Family is everything and some of us are being denied that comfort, over and over, with no end in sight.

The adoption of a hard "80% must be vaccinated" position to even open up in some way means we will all be held hostage in Gulag/Stalag/Fortress Australia by the inevitable 20% holdouts.

And now that so many children are getting it in QLD, I confidently predict that the next thing will be "oh well 80% of the eligible population have been vaccinated, but now we have to protect the vulnerable children". Then it will be "oh but now there is the Iota variant, or the Theta Variant, or the Sigma Variant, so we will all have to get re-vaccinated/booster shots" which will lead to more delays and a drop off in people's willingness to get shots as it just goes on ad infinitum into the future.

We are never going to get out of this. Well maybe in 3-5 years more we might, possibly. But earlier than that is now a 0% chance in my opinion.

The first politician to announce a hard date for opening up, or to announce "a percentage that have been offered a vaccine, whether they choose to take it or not" will get my vote.

Rant completed.

I am not family but giving you a virtual hug. Take care.

 

[ayushamity]

It is totally clear that no one in authority actually gives a stuff about how it is impacting people like me and the many others who post here with family overseas, or who are overseas and have family here. We have no rights at all; our families do not matter at all

I hear ya. I haven't seen my fiance since Feb 2020 who is overseas.

 

[JB expat]

Rant warning.
My personal outlook today is particularly gloomy, given the cancellation of Seat Son's flight DXB-SIN-SYD for 14-15 August. So feel free to take take my post with a grain of bitter personal disappointment.

I stand by my earlier predication of 12th of Never.

This border closure nonsense has just become totally entrenched as an acceptable or even laudable situation by cowardly politicians and fearful citizens. It is totally clear that no one in authority actually gives a stuff about how it is impacting people like me and the many others who post here with family overseas, or who are overseas and have family here. We have no rights at all; our families do not matter at all. And I'm sick to beyond saying of all the people on here who post about "wanting to travel" as equating to "wanting to see family", and then try to make out that it is selfish to want to see family. It's not selfish. Family is everything and some of us are being denied that comfort, over and over, with no end in sight.

The adoption of a hard "80% must be vaccinated" position to even open up in some way means we will all be held hostage in Gulag/Stalag/Fortress Australia by the inevitable 20% holdouts.

And now that so many children are getting it in QLD, I confidently predict that the next thing will be "oh well 80% of the eligible population have been vaccinated, but now we have to protect the vulnerable children". Then it will be "oh but now there is the Iota variant, or the Theta Variant, or the Sigma Variant, so we will all have to get re-vaccinated/booster shots" which will lead to more delays and a drop off in people's willingness to get shots as it just goes on ad infinitum into the future.

We are never going to get out of this. Well maybe in 3-5 years more we might, possibly. But earlier than that is now a 0% chance in my opinion.

The first politician to announce a hard date for opening up, or to announce "a percentage that have been offered a vaccine, whether they choose to take it or not" will get my vote.

Rant completed.

I truly agree. This is not a "plan" for opening up - it is a justification for staying insular and closed off to the rest of the world.

 

[drron]

@Seat0B I am a little more optimistic than you at this point in time and I think there will be ways for us older.vaccinated people to leave australia by next year.Hopefully legal but maybe not.If I find a way you will be the first to find out in a conversation if it isn't quite legal.

 

[mviy]

If the NZ bubble reopens there could be a few people that get “disoriented” in NZ and find themselves in a third country.

 

[Seat0B]

@Seat0B I am a little more optimistic than you at this point in time and I think there will be ways for us older.vaccinated people to leave australia by next year.Hopefully legal but maybe not.If I find a way you will be the first to find out in a conversation if it isn't quite legal.

Yes please