Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

Wrong. It's gotten worse for travellers from all of Australia

Last year they differentiated it by state - but now one size fits all. Thank you Delta. So someone traveling from Perth to Singapore will be stuck at home or inside a hotel for 2 weeks.

This post has not aged well.

Singapore has changed requirements for Australia again, back to a requirement to 7 days home quarantine (SHN) (and added Canada and Germany to the list). Not allowing visitors yet.

Summary of where things are at with travellers into .sg, courtesy of Straits Times. Will Australia ever move beyond "one sized fits all" approach*? (technically it's not really one sizes fits all, it's a binary approach - fully open, eg NZ for most of time since April, or fully restricted.

 

[jrfsp]

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coronavirus/covid-19-infection-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf

New uk study shows AZ may provide better long term effectiveness.
The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 93% effectiveness against symptomatic infection two weeks after the second dose, compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca's 71%.".

AZ declines linearly while Pfizer curves downwards and the report expects the crossover to favour AZ after 4-5 months - on that non-linear trajectory Pfizer will be down to zero in 8 months.

This is looking at symptomatic infection. We need to start on ordering more boosters.

 

[MARTINE]

View attachment 256028

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coronavirus/covid-19-infection-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf

New uk study shows AZ may provide better long term effectiveness.
The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 93% effectiveness against symptomatic infection two weeks after the second dose, compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca's 71%.".

AZ declines linearly while Pfizer curves downwards and the report expects the crossover to favour AZ after 4-5 months - on that non-linear trajectory Pfizer will be down to zero in 8 months.

This is looking at symptomatic infection. We need to start on ordering more boosters.

…agreed…And if you look at my post on ‘reports of virus spread thread ‘ sadly decline in immunity is one of the many factors that undermines successful herd immunity being reached even with full vaccination ..plus delta R number being worse that Alpha plus plus plus

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

View attachment 256028

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coronavirus/covid-19-infection-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf

New uk study shows AZ may provide better long term effectiveness.
The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 93% effectiveness against symptomatic infection two weeks after the second dose, compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca's 71%.".

AZ declines linearly while Pfizer curves downwards and the report expects the crossover to favour AZ after 4-5 months - on that non-linear trajectory Pfizer will be down to zero in 8 months.

This is looking at symptomatic infection. We need to start on ordering more boosters.

And some of the Sydney deaths might be attributed to this - fully vaccinated guessing in 1A/1B cohort....its got to be three months.....

 

[JB expat]

And some of the Sydney deaths might be attributed to this - fully vaccinated guessing in 1A/1B cohort....its got to be three months.....

I don't think so. Based on recollection, I think there may have been 1-2 deaths of fully vaccinated - with co-morbidities. I think that there is a very high survival rate re: fully vaccinated even where COVID results in hospitalization (aka severe breakthrough cases).

But clearly boosters are important - and for the man in the back "it will also be a race"

 

[N860CR]

I don't think so. Based on recollection, I think there may have been 1-2 deaths of fully vaccinated - with co-morbidities. I think that there is a very high survival rate re: fully vaccinated even where COVID results in hospitalization (aka severe breakthrough cases).

2, I believe. Both in palliative care so it would be a stretch to link their deaths to COVID.

 

[coyote25]

Some comments from Alan Joyce about reopening

“It's clear when we get to 80% of the eligible adult population being vaccinated that some international (travel) will start," Joyce said

Qantas to lay out roadmap for restart of international flights

The airline will next week share its estimates of how and when overseas travel will resume.

www.executivetraveller.com

 

[MARTINE]

Much as I want it to be so … travel insurance coverage re:Covid will be our next barrier to overcome…but it is a problem I will be happy to face

 

[Pushka]

Much as I want it to be so … travel insurance coverage re:Covid will be our next barrier to overcome…but it is a problem I will be happy to face

I think for the moment stick to countries where Aussies can utilise the Medicare arrangements overseas. There are several countries like that. Not the USA. In reality it will be more a delay thing because with vaccination, severe illness from Covid is less likely.

Sooo, I'm thinking that travel insurance for vaccinated people may well be different than for non vaxxers.

 

[MARTINE]

I think for the moment stick to countries where Aussies can utilise the Medicare arrangements overseas. There are several countries like that. Not the USA. In reality it will be more a delay thing because with vaccination, severe illness from Covid is less likely.

Sooo, I'm thinking that travel insurance for vaccinated people may well be different than for non vaxxers.

Yes.
Medicare reciprocity is good idea…
I think Australia will use zone system regarding Covid risk/pandemic v endemic status …. as per SmartTraveller with hopefully distinctions being taken up by insurance council re zones/vaccination etc; that said, in regards to the latter, immunity wanes, variants change effectiveness of vaccination but I do not want to depress everyone.
let’s just say it’s a problem I’ll be happy to face !!!

 

[JB expat]

Some comments from Alan Joyce about reopening

“It's clear when we get to 80% of the eligible adult population being vaccinated that some international (travel) will start," Joyce said

Qantas to lay out roadmap for restart of international flights

The airline will next week share its estimates of how and when overseas travel will resume.

www.executivetraveller.com

Just "some" - more than some!!!

 

[oznflfan]

Yes.
Medicare reciprocity is good idea…
I think Australia will use zone system regarding Covid risk/pandemic v endemic status …. as per SmartTraveller with hopefully distinctions being taken up by insurance council re zones/vaccination etc; that said, in regards to the latter, immunity wanes, variants change effectiveness of vaccination but I do not want to depress everyone.
let’s just say it’s a problem I’ll be happy to face !!!

All good and well, but you don't want to fly to Belgium for two weeks, then find out Europe as a whole had one too many cases, and Australia refuses to accept flights from there and you are stuck. Brave flyers will be the first to test this out. Surely 6 months should be enough to get comfortable, but with politicians, cannot trust any of them.

Smartraveller almost certainly going to the be the guide to what and who can go where, but not as much fun going to Europe for a month and checking every morning to see if you are allowed to get on that train from one country to another, and to see if one country you visited went from Yellow to Orange and now you need HQ on return to Australia.

I'm desperate to go somewhere, but on a holiday basis/break form reality, not needing to visit loved ones.

 

[MARTINE]

All good and well, but you don't want to fly to Belgium for two weeks, then find out Europe as a whole had one too many cases, and Australia refuses to accept flights from there and you are stuck. Brave flyers will be the first to test this out. Surely 6 months should be enough to get comfortable, but with politicians, cannot trust any of them.

Smartraveller almost certainly going to the be the guide to what and who can go where, but not as much fun going to Europe for a month and checking every morning to see if you are allowed to get on that train from one country to another, and to see if one country you visited went from Yellow to Orange and now you need HQ on return to Australia.

I'm desperate to go somewhere, but on a holiday basis/break form reality, not needing to visit loved ones.

Feeling the pain…... and agree with the detail of your thread . It wont be like it was before with much of the escapist excitement gone for next 3-5 years (IMHO). Plastic cutlery, masks, reduced food and
bevvie service in J, aggro customers who don’t want to follow the rules , sudden changes in scheduling based on Covid issues….
what can I say?.. If all else fails hope for a miracle…

 

[Seat0B]

Some comments from Alan Joyce about reopening

“It's clear when we get to 80% of the eligible adult population being vaccinated that some international (travel) will start," Joyce said

Qantas to lay out roadmap for restart of international flights

The airline will next week share its estimates of how and when overseas travel will resume.

www.executivetraveller.com

Go Alan!!!

 

[dajop]

I'm desperate..... break form reality,.

Find a way of getting into hotel quarantine for 2 weeks.

That's a break from reality ... it really is surreal.

 

[mviy]

Alan Joyce has been wrong multiple times already so his predictions on what will happen should be taken with a grain of salt and should be expected to err on the optimistic side.

 

[jakeseven7]

Alan Joyce has been wrong multiple times already so his predictions on what will happen should be taken with a grain of salt and should be expected to err on the optimistic side.

When will people understand that he isn’t actually predicting anything… he’s just piling on the pressure to the governments by raising hope and expectation. It’s just PR tactics people.

 

[SYD]

Just throwing this out there….

Elephant In The Room: It’s About Time People STOP Booking Flights To Australia and New Zealand

Rethink your ticket purchases!

loyaltylobby.com

It‘s a similar commentary to QF PR….

 

[Seat0B]

Just throwing this out there….

Elephant In The Room: It’s About Time People STOP Booking Flights To Australia and New Zealand

Rethink your ticket purchases!

loyaltylobby.com

It‘s a similar commentary to QF PR….

Channelling @jb747 a bit here but I honestly can’t see how airlines will stay in business/continue to fly to Australia given the way things are.

 

[mviy]

Channelling @jb747 a bit here but I honestly can’t see how airlines will stay in business/continue to fly to Australia given the way things are.

QF will be forced to try another capital raising. It's a matter of when, not if in my opinion. If that fails they will probably need to go into voluntary administration like Virgin with a new buyer and shareholders losing their entire investment. The latter would almost certainly mean the A380s would be ditched one would think and a very different airline.