Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MARTINE]

Well placed leverage to keep the ball rolling and make certain premiers increasingly irrelevant. (or am I just hoping here?).

Is that eyeballs rolling?!?!

 

[openseat]

Is that eyeballs rolling?!?!

In this case it is a matter of Reader Response Theory... read it how you want.

 

[MooTime]

What does worry me is that I am worried we will ever get to 80%? I know this is probably hard to validate, but I have read that the numbers of deniers, and the anti-vaxers, add up to over 20%.

Now that the Prime Minister is saying that there will be enough vaccines for everyone by October, I wonder why he cannot state a date that borders will open? Make the date something that would enable all people who have been hesitant to have time to do so, but would allow families who want to travel for Christmas to do so.

How about 10 December?

You really believe we won't get to 80%?
Where do you get the anti-vax crowd is over 20%?

We are currently at ~31% full vac'd.
How could you possibly set a date at this point in time?? So much to play out, a date now would be complete guess work & ultimately change multiple times. Irresponsible.
Doherty Inst already re-examining their research as they had it for cases of 30 once open, how silly was that!

There'll be ample time & planning to be allowed when borders do open in a 'lite' controlled way, def won't be open slather.

 

[mviy]

Doherty Inst already re-examining their research as they had it for cases of 30 once open, how silly was that!

The rising number of cases now doesn't affect the modelling: Doherty Institute director says once 70-80 per cent vaccination rate reached cases don't have to be at zero to reopen
"Whether you open up at 30 [cases] or you open up at 800, you will still continue to see numbers escalate," Professor Lewin said.

 

[MooTime]

The rising number of cases now doesn't affect the modelling: Doherty Institute director says once 70-80 per cent vaccination rate reached cases don't have to be at zero to reopen
"Whether you open up at 30 [cases] or you open up at 800, you will still continue to see numbers escalate," Professor Lewin said.

The Doherty research was never done based on covid zero on opening.
They are re-doing the modelling based on high numbers on opening. That's all.

Statement from yesterday.

https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/statement-on-the-doherty-institute-modelling

 

[mviy]

The thing is when we open up the case numbers will go up. Opening up with say hundreds of cases in the community is just where we'd be say after a few weeks or a month or two if we opened up with 30. It's not a material difference and the hospitals etc. can plan for it.

 

[hb13]

Do people really think the international borders will open for Christmas 21? I don’t think so. I think all efforts will be focused on getting state borders open. No political gain to be made by opening them up this year.

I think we need to define 'opening up international borders'. IMO, I agree that they won't anytime soon and domestic freedoms will be focused on and 2022 will be about that.

If we consider the current vaccination rate, and the fact that Moderna comes onboard next month, along with more Pfizer supplies, 80 - 85% should easily be hit in November. Unless some unforeseen supply issue occurs, there should be no reason not to reach that. If that does occur however, what next for international borders? Realistically what next that is?

Because 14-day home quarantine is still not feasible for many people. What about those of us that don't own a home in Oz, but want to spend 14 days where others are in the house? Will that be allowed?

Australia is so far behind that I don't feel any of this (intl. border opening/rules relaxation) will even be discussed till mid 2022. They'll focus on domestic issues, then have countless "trials/studies", then they'll discuss it 1000 times and then who knows we may have something by 2023.

 

[Pushka]

Because 14-day home quarantine is still not feasible for many people. What about those of us that don't own a home in Oz, but want to spend 14 days where others are in the house? Will that be allowed?

In this situation all family members would have to quarantine and no visitors. That's what happens in SA now where people are required to isolate as close contact.

Open up the borders - I just wish that the message would be 'open up borders but with restrictions depending on individual circumstances etc etc' - and not the 'throw everything open' which is the dominant message now and rightly so, scares people.

 

[jb747]

International travel will not happen, other than a burst at the start for family, as no inbound tourist would ever want to spend time in quarantine. That means the numbers will never become high enough to support the airlines and infrastructure. No scale. It’s almost binary. Decent scale or zero.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Decent scale will happen, but no government will commit to it outright from now. Indeed very few governments anywhere in the world have actually done so? For our citizens, the locking up will soon be over. From a policy perspective, focus should be on making sure domestic travel is easy and trouble free for the vaccinated. From there it will be easier politically and scientifically to open to the world. As by then, others would have done so and we would have learned from their experiences.

 

[oznflfan]

I think we need to define 'opening up international borders'. IMO, I agree that they won't anytime soon and domestic freedoms will be focused on and 2022 will be about that.

If we consider the current vaccination rate, and the fact that Moderna comes onboard next month, along with more Pfizer supplies, 80 - 85% should easily be hit in November. Unless some unforeseen supply issue occurs, there should be no reason not to reach that. If that does occur however, what next for international borders? Realistically what next that is?

Because 14-day home quarantine is still not feasible for many people. What about those of us that don't own a home in Oz, but want to spend 14 days where others are in the house? Will that be allowed?

Australia is so far behind that I don't feel any of this (intl. border opening/rules relaxation) will even be discussed till mid 2022. They'll focus on domestic issues, then have countless "trials/studies", then they'll discuss it 1000 times and then who knows we may have something by 2023.

I personally don't think 80% is achievable by early - mid 2022 really, but for sake of this just say we do by Christmas 2021. Based on Doherty, fully open domestically and thousands and thousands of cases will appear in coming 1-6 months, but not overloaded ICU nor death. Why would quarantine be required arriving from oversea's? What purpose would it have when their is plenty of COVID all over this country of ours?

Smartraveller could be added for Green/Yellow/Orange/Red (have been harping on this as makes so much sense to be initially - it will get past it's used by date in a year, but gives the pollies something to bang on about on and 'keep us safe'). Everyone vaccinated of course. Non vaccinated auto Red no matter where you fly in from.

Green - nothing (cases much lower than Australia)
Yellow - test prior and post landing (cases comparable to Australia)
Orange - multiple tests and 7-14 days home quarantine (cases a lot higher than Australia)
Red - zombie apocalypse COVID cases - don't really have any of these now globally (India at their peak, USA in past, Brazil recently).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

What does worry me is that I am worried we will ever get to 80%? I know this is probably hard to validate, but I have read that the numbers of deniers, and the anti-vaxers, add up to over 20%.

Now that the Prime Minister is saying that there will be enough vaccines for everyone by October, I wonder why he cannot state a date that borders will open? Make the date something that would enable all people who have been hesitant to have time to do so, but would allow families who want to travel for Christmas to do so.

How about 10 December?

The UK is at 79% fully vaccinated and 88% first dose? I can't see why Australia would be any different?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

International travel will not happen, other than a burst at the start for family, as no inbound tourist would ever want to spend time in quarantine. That means the numbers will never become high enough to support the airlines and infrastructure. No scale. It’s almost binary. Decent scale or zero.

Lots of airlines have single daily flights around the world. Australia in theory would be no different. I'm not sure whether it's a case of *either* 5x SQ dailies to SYD *or* zero. Whether or not an Aussie airline can sustain international operations? Dunno. Quarantine is one thing, but even if that was scrapped there'll be no Chinese market for a very long time. But that's probably likely to affect only the Chinese carriers and QF's limited services to mainland China.

 

[drron]

I am optimistic we will reach 80% this year.85% of over 70s have had a first dose,75% of over 50s.I feel the great majority will go on to their second dose.
NSW and the ACT have already gone past the 60% of all adults.

As to borders reopening I think there will be a relaxation of exemptions to leave by December or early 2022.Possibly limited opening of inbound in 2022.First OS students and possibly vaccinated pax from selected countries.

However I believe jb747 is right when it comes to pre covid type travel.I think it will be 2024-2026 before that happens.So which airlines will be operating and will fares be a lot more expensive.Almost certainly.I doubt I will be able to use the cheap BA J and F fares to BKK and back.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Why would quarantine be required arriving from oversea's? What purpose would it have when their is plenty of COVID all over this country of ours?

The question then becomes more what are the suppression measures we are using and how that could allow or impede overseas arrivals.

 

[louie-m]

The UK is at 79% fully vaccinated and 88% first dose? I can't see why Australia would be any different?

132k vs <1k deaths?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I personally don't think 80% is achievable by early - mid 2022 really, but for sake of this just say we do by Christmas 2021. Based on Doherty, fully open domestically and thousands and thousands of cases will appear in coming 1-6 months, but not overloaded ICU nor death. Why would quarantine be required arriving from oversea's? What purpose would it have when their is plenty of COVID all over this country of ours?

Smartraveller could be added for Green/Yellow/Orange/Red (have been harping on this as makes so much sense to be initially - it will get past it's used by date in a year, but gives the pollies something to bang on about on and 'keep us safe'). Everyone vaccinated of course. Non vaccinated auto Red no matter where you fly in from.

Green - nothing (cases much lower than Australia)
Yellow - test prior and post landing (cases comparable to Australia)
Orange - multiple tests and 7-14 days home quarantine (cases a lot higher than Australia)
Red - zombie apocalypse COVID cases - don't really have any of these now globally (India at their peak, USA in past, Brazil recently).

The question then becomes more what are the suppression measures we are using and how that could allow or impede overseas arrivals.

In terms of overseas arrivals, the focus would be quarantine, caps and lockdown. Caps are arguably jointly state and federal. Quarantine and lockdown are the practical realm of the sate and territories.

Assuming the vaccine does prevent an explosion in hospitalisation, ICU and ventilators (including no explosion of cases in the group that is unvaccinable ie kids), then there would be no need in states say like NSW to have a lockdown or quarantine.

There might be say mandatory vaccinations of teachers and mask wearing at schools to protect the vulnerable unvaccinable kids. But these measure don;t really affect international arrivals.

The only other thing to then look out for would be a new variant that bypasses the vaccinations. I believe all the major 'dangerous' variants have started in the Northern Hemisphere, so Australia would just be crossing its fingers that any next dangerous variant bypassing current vaccines doesn't start in the Southern Hemisphere and then rely on the tyranny of distance/being an island.

 

[ethernet]

Sock it to em Scomo. The only positive thing he has done recently is pressing living with the virus. Only hope he keeps it up.

Scomo and treasury are aware elimination has failed. A pre-christmas lockdown will not go over well. I expect Qld and WA will have shields up, and more excuses to say no. NSW wants a backup plan to say Yes. BTW NSW and VIC did an outstanding job in denting the upward projectory, but the lockdown took longer to bite. We are about to learn if woefully under-vaccinated areas turn into burning embers that seed afar. Lack of testing means no good baseline, for now.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

132k vs <1k deaths?

Good point. But in terms of mindset - we shouldn't, in theory, have any more anti-vaxxers than the UK? USA for example has quite a different mindset.

 

[jakeseven7]

132k vs <1k deaths?

The everyday people won’t care. People can keep on overanalysing everything in detail and trying to compare but once we (shortly) have a tipping point of people vaccinated, there will be a ground swell of people fighting to get out and the governments will just fold. Heard it hear first

The question is what will be the public tipping point.

I tend to think it will be when the population has had enough time to get a jab and not the actual percentages. People won’t give a cough about laggards who had the chance and didn’t.

The only small thing that might complicate is kids/no kids/what age. But if we leave that to ATAGI it will be 45 years before that is decided