Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[justinbrett]

The Federal Government has just announced, unilaterally but they are funding the build anyway, that the new Quarantine Station being built in W.A. will be in the grounds of the Pearce RAAF base rather than at Jandakot Airport. There have been concerns expressed because it will be built on land contaminated by firefighting foam but the Govt. has dismissed those concerns because it does not intend to use groundwater from the site. The W.A govt. has been calling for the use of defence facilities for the last 14 months. and it is claimed that it will be a quicker build at Pearce.

Finance Minister Birmingham also said - "Whilst it will be used for any ongoing quarantine requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic, it will also be available in the years to come for other important uses such as supporting responses to natural disasters or other emergencies."

WA quarantine hub to be built at contaminated Bullsbrook after Jandakot plans axed

The Commonwealth ditches plans to build Western Australia's quarantine facility at Jandakot Airport, instead opting for land near the contaminated Pearce RAAF base.

www.abc.net.au

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It's a coincidence this is on land near the RAAF base, but it is not going to have anything to do with the base, so "The W.A govt. has been calling for the use of defence facilities for the last 14 months. and it is claimed that it will be a quicker build at Pearce" is just irrelevant. He was talking about using existing facilities, not building new ones.

Aircraft won't land at Pearce, they'll land at Perth and be bused.

 

[jakeseven7]

This network is very Sydney centric, which makes me think that QF, Sydney Airport, the NSW Government and the Federal Government are all on the same page. The international border will open to NSW and any other state that wishes to join.

This also has the potential benefit of working to avoid a further federal bailout of QF.

There are rumours that the Fed government are looking are subsidising some costs associated with international flying to begin with for any Australian based carrier (so if VA2 decided to start an international network again this would apply to them too).

This would de-risk some of the start up costs and first stages of a return to ‘normal’ which I’m sure will be patchy and scattered with state premier hysterical reactions still.

It’s a rumour only so don’t shriek at the messenger please

 

[jrfsp]

That’s sad - I was always very fond of the qf lounge at HKG. specifically the shu mai...

Post automatically merged: Aug 26, 2021

Surely though the proof will be in whether qantas is starting to stand up its international network again now - all those furloughed pilots must be pretty rusty at this point and will require recertification? Any intel on whether they’re actually operationally prepping?

Agreed I preferred it to the SIN lounge, at least we have the CX lounges to fall back on, although it looks like there are closures there too and entry for different lounges based on transiting or origin passengers

 

[justinbrett]

This network is very Sydney centric, which makes me think that QF, Sydney Airport, the NSW Government and the Federal Government are all on the same page. The international border will open to NSW and any other state that wishes to join.

This also has the potential benefit of working to avoid a further federal bailout of QF.

I think you're on the money.

The federal government has given up on getting all the states on board - even Queensland is still talking about indefinite hotel quarantine even for tourists.

The best way forward is for the government to lift the restriction and let the states open up when they were ready - exactly how it happened with the NZ bubble.

The rest will follow as soon as NSW opens. I think VIC will be right there with them, no way will VIC let NSW open up alone.

 

[OZDUCK]

It's a coincidence this is on land near the RAAF base, but it is not going to have anything to do with the base, so "The W.A govt. has been calling for the use of defence facilities for the last 14 months. and it is claimed that it will be a quicker build at Pearce" is just irrelevant. He was talking about using existing facilities, not building new ones.

Aircraft won't land at Pearce, they'll land at Perth and be bused.

I never actually thought that aircraft would be landing at Pearce. MEA CULPA for the rest. I mentioned the WA govt. call for Defence Force facilities to be used more in the context that they would be hardly likely to complain about the site being moved near to a base and on Commonwealth land but I absolutely worded my comments badly. Pearce and Bullsbrook have become conflated in my mind over the years and I went gaily ahead down the wrong path.

The important thing, to me anyway, is that it will now be ready sooner and will be a useful asset over a number of years.

 

[antycbr]

I think you're on the money.

The federal government has given up on getting all the states on board - even Queensland is still talking about indefinite hotel quarantine even for tourists.

The best way forward is for the government to lift the restriction and let the states open up when they were ready - exactly how it happened with the NZ bubble.

The rest will follow as soon as NSW opens. I think VIC will be right there with them, no way will VIC let NSW open up alone.

Victoria will want to be open before the Australian Open. If the UK of all places can host Wimbledon, there's no reason why Melbourne can't host the Australian Open, unless they are determined to have donut days at all costs. If they are determined to have donut days then the Australian Open will be played in Dubai or Shanghai and will never return. This becomes a huge risk for the "sporting capital of the world."

The players have been very clear that they will not isolate for 14 days next time around, and an exemption would be completely toxic.

 

[oznflfan]

I think you're on the money.

The federal government has given up on getting all the states on board - even Queensland is still talking about indefinite hotel quarantine even for tourists.

The best way forward is for the government to lift the restriction and let the states open up when they were ready - exactly how it happened with the NZ bubble.

The rest will follow as soon as NSW opens. I think VIC will be right there with them, no way will VIC let NSW open up alone.

NO-ONE WILL HOLIDAY TO QLD IF THEY TO QUARANTINE.

I

 

[V1213]

This network is very Sydney centric, which makes me think that QF, Sydney Airport, the NSW Government and the Federal Government are all on the same page. The international border will open to NSW and any other state that wishes to join.

This also has the potential benefit of working to avoid a further federal bailout of QF.

How does a Sydney-centric network work for other places (including regional areas without international air access) if the primary COVID border measure is home quarantine?
A lot of travel demand may hinge on how travel to places beyond Sydney can be facilitated for international arrivals, prior to people entering home quarantine....

 

[antycbr]

How does a Sydney-centric network work for other places (including regional areas without international air access) if the primary border COVID measure is home quarantine?
A lot of travel demand may hinge on how travel to places beyond Sydney can be facilitated, prior to people entering home quarantine....

Are you referring to intra-NSW or interstate as the answers are very different.

Expect the international flight caps to continue for states that insist on Covid-Zero. They'll get one or two flights a week at most and none on QF. Most of the airlines will have stopped flights aside from freight so they can make some money from Sydney. Domestic flights from NSW will arrive at International Terminals and you'll pop straight into a refreshing hotel quarantine for 14 days.

NSW domestic ports (noting that interstate Covid zero ports are international for this purpose) you'll probably do a Rapid Antigen test on arrival, and then continue on as covid is going to remain endmic in NSW including regional NSW. You won't have been allowed on the international sector unless you're fully vaccinated.

 

[roogirl]

How does a Sydney-centric network work for other places (including regional areas without international air access) if the primary COVID border measure is home quarantine?
A lot of travel demand may hinge on how travel to places beyond Sydney can be facilitated for international arrivals, prior to people entering home quarantine....

It’s totally unworkable other than as a forcing mechanism to get rogue States to open up. If they didn’t take the bait you’d just about be in referendum time...it’d be politically very messy.

 

[justinbrett]

How does a Sydney-centric network work for other places (including regional areas without international air access) if the primary border COVID measure is home quarantine?
A lot of travel demand may hinge on how travel to places beyond Sydney can be facilitated, prior to people entering home quarantine....

I'm not sure home quarantine will be a big part of it - it might in the early stages, but I suggest the bulk of travel will be to bubble countries (already suggested to include UK and US, the biggest markets). If you're coming from a high risk area it will be managed quarantine.

But as to the question, the bulk of NSW lives within a reasonable driving distance of Sydney (ie the Newcastle, Canberra & Wollongong triangle), and even as far north as Coffs - beyond which you're then closer to BNE than SYD.

 

[V1213]

Are you referring to intra-NSW or interstate as the answers are very different.

Expect the flight caps to continue for states that insist on Covid-Zero. They'll get one or two flights a week at most and none on QF. Most of the airlines will have stopped flights aside from freight so they can make some money from Sydney. Domestic flights from NSW will arrive at International Terminals and you'll pop straight into a refreshing hotel quarantine for 14 days.

NSW domestic ports (noting that Covid zero ports are international for this purpose) you'll probably do a Rapid Antigen test on arrival, and then continue on as covid is going to remain endmic in NSW including regional NSW. You won't have been allowed on the international sector unless you're fully vaccinated.

I'm referring to both intra-NSW (as per your example), as well as the states/territories that are expected to play ball (ie. VIC & ACT).

If a rapid antigen test is sufficient for an international arrival (who is also fully vaccinated and passed the 72-hour pre-departure test) to board a domestic flight with everyone else, why bother with home quarantine at all?

I could potentially see Qantas operating a daily or select days 737 international-connections-only home quarantine special SYD-MEL for connecting passengers from the morning arrivals wave, but that wouldn't work for most other destinations.

 

[antycbr]

I'm referring to both intra-NSW (as per your example), as well as the states/territories that are expected to play ball (ie. VIC & ACT).

If a rapid antigen test is sufficient for an international arrival (who is also fully vaccinated and passed the 72-hour pre-departure test) to board a domestic flight with everyone else, why bother with home quarantine at all?

I could potentially see Qantas operating a daily or select days 737 international-connections-only home quarantine special SYD-MEL for connecting passengers from the morning arrivals wave, but that wouldn't work for most other destinations.

Home quarantine wasn't really part of stage D really. No one on board the flight will be unvaccinated anyway as it'll be a requirement for all Qantas Group flights.

 

[Jmrocky]

I really think in 6 months this will be a white elephant that they do not dare talk about, QLD and WA are purposefully trying to miss the train and they are going to have egg on their face for it.

I wouldn't get too down about it, what they they are describing sounds very similar to a FIFO camp, of which similar proposals adjacent to Towoomba airport have been suggested for years (well before COVID) to support works in Surat basin. The latest articles are suggesting a gov. lease agreement, which points to it more than likely being utilised for something else in the long term.

 

[Pushka]

I wouldn't...



My mother is 91. She's angry that lockdowns have continually hit her, even though there has never been a nearby case. Basically she sees it as Dan stealing was little time she has left. Untargetted lockdowns look a lot like carpet bombing. Get rid of a lot of bombs, do a lot of collateral damage, but hit almost no targets.

I'm in my sixties and I feel robbed of two years of my peak travelling age! No parents to worry about, no mortgage, kids married and this was to be my time. Don't know what lies around the corner but two years gone pffft. I would have taken the risk to travel overseas this year once vaccinated but the reduced caps killed off that chance.

 

[justinbrett]

I could potentially see Qantas operating a daily or select days 737 international-connections-only home quarantine special SYD-MEL for connecting passengers from the morning arrivals wave, but that wouldn't work for most other destinations.

I think it's just unworkable. If you look at the UK, you have Green, Amber and Red countries - if you are vaccinated, it's no quarantine at all (green & amber), or hotel quarantine (red).

The only people using home quarantine are unvaccinated people from Amber countries. And in our case, I think this group will be hotel quarantine as well.

 

[antycbr]

I think it's just unworkable. If you look at the UK, you have Green, Amber and Red countries - if you are vaccinated, it's no quarantine at all (green & amber), or hotel quarantine (red).

The only people using home quarantine are unvaccinated people from Amber countries. And in our case, I think this group will be hotel quarantine as well.

I would be very surprised if we allow anyone unvaccinated into Australia across the border unless they are able to prove to DFAT that they can't get vaccinated at origin and get an exemption. Outbound will have no excuse.

They won't be on QF Group either.

 

[justinbrett]

I would be very surprised if we allow anyone unvaccinated into Australia across the border unless they are able to prove to DFAT that they can't get vaccinated at origin and get an exemption. Outbound will have no excuse.

They won't be on QF Group either.

I don't think they'd enforce that for inbound travellers who are Australian citizens - outbound yes.

I'm sure we have Australians in poorer countries who can't access vaccines.

 

[Pushka]

I don't think they'd enforce that for inbound travellers who are Australian citizens - outbound yes.

I'm sure we have Australians in poorer countries who can't access vaccines.

Which is why pre flight testing and quarantine facilities are required for non vaccinated Aussies etc. Likely not for tourists though.

 

[antycbr]

I don't think they'd enforce that for inbound travellers who are Australian citizens - outbound yes.

I'm sure we have Australians in poorer countries who can't access vaccines.

That's why I think there'll be exemptions, but even poorer countries generally have expat connected medical services though to look after their community and the diplomatic corps, which will provide them (although they might be Sinovac).