Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[JB expat]

No mention of potential markets such as the 'sandbox' in coughet. Maybe something JQ will look at?

Many of us are not focused on holidays but on actually seeing family.

 

[JB expat]

There is no way Qantas haven't drawn up these plans without consulting high level government sources first. With previous Qantas plans they were all optimistic as none of them were tied to vaccination dates.

Now we know we should hit 80% by December, so I think this will likely dovetail with future government announcements unless we get unexpected changes before (eg a significantly vaccine resistant strain).

Big question will be under what basis we open up initially - would expect Singapore would be quarantine free. But would US/UK need 7 days' home quarantine for vaccinated travelers? That would seem realistic, but in this case it would significantly impact on demand (and may be why Qantas is holding back the 380s)

Re: Home quarantine - for those of us who are fortunate enough to be able to fully work from home, a 1 (even 2) week home quarantine is something fairly easy to accept (even if not our first choice). I would imagine that there are a significant number of seats that would be filled by people who can do exactly this - not everyone who wants to travel, but between Syd & Melb flying populations, enough.

 

[JB expat]

I think this fact is lost on a lot of people. We seem to be of the opinion that the country is somehow special, when in reality we are not.

The virus that emerged in Wuhan jumped deserts, oceans and continents. To think that with over 13,000 active cases growing at now over 1,000 per day will not lead to extensive transmission chains beyond NSW is absolutely ludicrous. It is an almost certainty that the strain in Sydney has now also been "returned" to other countries. If State governments in QLD, SA, NT, WA, assume that they can avoid this outcome then they are frankly mad.

This has (or at least should have) pretty significant implications for international travel, even if just with "bubble" countries.

With vaccination above 80%, transmission is acceptable - that is what "COVID normal" is all about - you are still focusing on COVID zero. That's simply not possible - and certainly not possible along side living a "normal" life to the extent possible.

 

[JB expat]

Review: Qantas Hong Kong Lounge [2024]

While Cathay Pacific understandably dominates Hong Kong International Airport with five individual lounges, the Qantas Hong Kong Lounge remains an unexpected gem. If you hold Qantas Platinum or Qantas Platinum One status you may well pop into Cathay’s The Wing First lounge for its à la carte...

www.executivetraveller.com

QF doesnt think HKG will be making a big comeback...

Cathay's lounge (for top tier) was better anyway...but HKG has changed a lot as a destination and will continue to do so as mainland China takes it over in ways that impact businesses.

Post automatically merged: Aug 26, 2021

Victoria will want to be open before the Australian Open. If the UK of all places can host Wimbledon, there's no reason why Melbourne can't host the Australian Open, unless they are determined to have donut days at all costs. If they are determined to have donut days then the Australian Open will be played in Dubai or Shanghai and will never return. This becomes a huge risk for the "sporting capital of the world."

The players have been very clear that they will not isolate for 14 days next time around, and an exemption would be completely toxic.

Even Dan seems to have given up on donut days...at last.

 

[Meggsy]

There are rumours that the Fed government are looking are subsidising some costs associated with international flying to begin with for any Australian based carrier (so if VA2 decided to start an international network again this would apply to them too).

This would de-risk some of the start up costs and first stages of a return to ‘normal’ which I’m sure will be patchy and scattered with state premier hysterical reactions still.

It’s a rumour only so don’t shriek at the messenger please

It's more than a rumour @jakeseven7 A number of these support packages are already up and running and will continue to the end of the year at this stage but in all likelihood be extended. More information can be found at Aviation

 

[justinbrett]

It's more than a rumour @jakeseven7 A number of these support packages are already up and running and will continue to the end of the year at this stage but in all likelihood be extended. More information can be found at Aviation

Obviously not thinking they'll need much support if they're talking about pulling A380s out early.

 

[mviy]

If there is support by the government for flights as Australian airlines begin international operations again it would be to make up the shortfall if a flight sells too few seats to enable the airline to breakeven on that flight or they could even make it the average of that flight for the week (so if one day has very light loads but it's more than made up for on other days that week that's not an issue). It could be a bit like the bank guarantee where everyone hopes it never needs to be called on.

 

[roogirl]

Re: Home quarantine - for those of us who are fortunate enough to be able to fully work from home, a 1 (even 2) week home quarantine is something fairly easy to accept (even if not our first choice). I would imagine that there are a significant number of seats that would be filled by people who can do exactly this - not everyone who wants to travel, but between Syd & Melb flying populations, enough.

This is basically what it’s been like in the U.K. for the last few months (with the option of testing to release on day5/6) and it’s been fine for lots of us who can work from home. Devil is in detail tho as to whether the rest of the household has to isolate too (you didn’t in the U.K., which is ridic but there you go).

 

[justinbrett]

And after all that chat about international travel, I receive this email:



I might renew it anyway - one can dream (pre covid I always had one active as I went at least once a year)

 

[oznflfan]

With all QANTAS news today + Scomo & Fryd's banging on about opening borders, are we more confident today than last Thursday?
I am, and pretty confident on Europe trip leaving Saturday 2nd July 2022 next year. Quarantine TBA, but should be worst case 7 days at home?

 

[jakeseven7]

It's more than a rumour @jakeseven7 A number of these support packages are already up and running and will continue to the end of the year at this stage but in all likelihood be extended. More information can be found at Aviation

Oh no that’s old news as you point out.
New package….

 

[Meggsy]

With all QANTAS news today + Scomo & Fryd's banging on about opening borders, are we more confident today than last Thursday?
I am, and pretty confident on Europe trip leaving Saturday 2nd July 2022 next year. Quarantine TBA, but should be worst case 7 days at home?

I am getting more optimistic each day and will very soon be booking for September 2022 Northern Europe

 

[mviy]

With all QANTAS news today + Scomo & Fryd's banging on about opening borders, are we more confident today than last Thursday?
I am, and pretty confident on Europe trip leaving Saturday 2nd July 2022 next year. Quarantine TBA, but should be worst case 7 days at home?

I’m clinging to hope of UK at Christmas 2021. We need high vaccination rates. Hopefully the PM can find a way to get extra supply of vaccines or to bring forward existing supply.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Victoria will want to be open before the Australian Open. If the UK of all places can host Wimbledon, there's no reason why Melbourne can't host the Australian Open

,
Yes and given when 80% fully vaxxed is likely to be achieved based on when Pfizer and Moderna is meant to be arriving there is no reason to believe that it would not be.

, unless they are determined to have donut days at all costs.

Which based on what Dan Andrews has said is not the case. He has stated several times that the Vic Gov is following the agreed national plan.
ie Opening up at the agreed levels.

The unknowns at present are exactly what controls will be in place that go with the agreed levels in the plan, and how much will be region based and how much will be national.

There is not a one size fits all at the 70 and 80%. of adults. Even Dr Chant at the recent NSW Presser has spoken on the need for ongoing restrictions and controls and that these may go on for years. Different states, and also regions within states, may have different settings for all sorts of reasons some of which are transmission related and so will be to do with health resources available. Controls based on vaccinated status are coming in, and this will assist in other restrictions being wound back as vaccinations continue to rise.

A key part will be how many cases are in hospital and ICU. If that is all under control then less rules and restrictions will be needed and they may be wound back more quickly. If hospitalisations drag on then various restrictions may linger longer, but they will progressively get less and less.

So with your example the AO 2022 it may be that to attend that you have to be fully vaxxed. By AO 2023 it may have eased to have become no event specific restrictions as the bulk of the population will have either been vaxxed or that most people if not vaccinated will have already been infected with Covid.

Melbourne Cup in Nov 20121? Who knows. It will be run, and I suspect with some crowds based on vaccination status. But early November might just a few weeks too early to have anything more than moderate crowds.


Like many states International Students is big business and they will want that that market back for the 2022 Academic Year. So students will be flyings in for that.

 

[Seat0B]

NO-ONE WILL HOLIDAY TO QLD IF THEY TO QUARANTINE.

I

Despite having family there, and feeling some sympathy for the small businesses that are affected, it will be a cold day in hell before I spend a minute longer or a penny more than I have to in Queensland ever again. I will have to go from time to time to see the family (and pull our weight in elder care), but I will not be shopping up, eating out or taking trips further in to Queensland if I can avoid it. And I certainly will not quarantine for anything less than overseas, and even then, not really happy to do it once double jabbed and at 80%.

Post automatically merged: Aug 26, 2021

I'm not sure home quarantine will be a big part of it - it might in the early stages, but I suggest the bulk of travel will be to bubble countries (already suggested to include UK and US, the biggest markets). If you're coming from a high risk area it will be managed quarantine.

But as to the question, the bulk of NSW lives within a reasonable driving distance of Sydney (ie the Newcastle, Canberra & Wollongong triangle), and even as far north as Coffs - beyond which you're then closer to BNE than SYD.

and Qantas has stepped up its regional presence and may continue to do so to feed international demand.

 

[justinbrett]

With all QANTAS news today + Scomo & Fryd's banging on about opening borders, are we more confident today than last Thursday?
I am, and pretty confident on Europe trip leaving Saturday 2nd July 2022 next year. Quarantine TBA, but should be worst case 7 days at home?

If it wasn't for the Sydney AND the Melbourne outbreaks, we wouldn't even be dreaming of overseas travel in 2022. Now, even Dec 21 is a possibility. Early 22 is near inevitable. We needed two states to show that despite best efforts, Delta can't be eliminated.

It will take the other states longer to come to this realisation. I really hope the federal government goes ahead with it despite WA/QLD objections.

 

[Seat0B]

I'm in my sixties and I feel robbed of two years of my peak travelling age! No parents to worry about, no mortgage, kids married and this was to be my time. Don't know what lies around the corner but two years gone pffft. I would have taken the risk to travel overseas this year once vaccinated but the reduced caps killed off that chance.

Exactly this.

 

[kamchatsky]

For me even though the border restriction is to be lifted by end of the year, I may still struggle to get out of Australia because of my 2 small kids (5 and 8). Without the certainty of using vaccines for children, I cannot see when I can get out of the country anytime soon. I would love to go to Europe or USA mid to late next year.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I’m clinging to hope of UK at Christmas 2021. We need high vaccination rates. Hopefully the PM can find a way to get extra supply of vaccines or to bring forward existing supply.

Christmas may be very tight, though I think is doable. No doubt subject to some restrictions..

For that timeline there are enough ordered vaccines, but are there enough people willing to get vaccinated by then?
There are for example probably a number of over 60's still stubbornly holding out for Pfizer/Moderna and if the vaccines are opened up to over 12's before the over 60's that may slow things down a little.

Post automatically merged: Aug 26, 2021

I'm in my sixties and I feel robbed of two years of my peak travelling age! No parents to worry about, no mortgage, kids married and this was to be my time. Don't know what lies around the corner but two years gone pffft. I would have taken the risk to travel overseas this year once vaccinated but the reduced caps killed off that chance.

2021 was meant to be my South American year

(Though I still have parents and MIL to monitor).

 

[olliekeighley]

If you look at covidlive.com.au it says we will reach 80% of first doses target on October 1st, in 36 days.

So, as long as we reach that target, then you'd assume everyone who took their first jab is willing to get the second, so then its just a question of supply.

At the current 7 day average we are 80% vaxxed on 16th November. Add a month on top for good will and hey presto, international travel on December 16th.