Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Great so now the uselessly slow states like WA and QLD are going to handbrake us all…

Wonder if National Cabinet is ready to decide (8 votes/9) to redirect vaccines if a State say falls below 95% utilisation rate.........

 

[bernardblack]

Anyone still drinking the "sane dude governing sanely in the interests of Victorians" Kool-Aid?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Anyone still drinking the "sane dude governing sanely in the interests of Victorians" Kool-Aid?

View attachment 256724

On the main virus thread I think some have guessed, Vic authorities will never give up. I think they might give up at about 150 - and then relax some of the more "irrelevant"/"borderline" restrictions perhaps curfew, allow more outdoor exercise.

 

[jb747]

On the main virus thread I think some have guessed, Vic authorities will never give up. I think they might give up at about 150 - and then relax some of the more "irrelevant"/"borderline" restrictions perhaps curfew, allow more outdoor exercise.

No, Dan won't give up. He'll just blame NSW and come up with more restrictions.

 

[antycbr]

No, Dan won't give up. He'll just blame NSW and come up with more restrictions.

There’s about 21,000 VicPol for 6+ million Victorians. You cannot police your way out of a pandemic through restrictions. The current ones are tough and aren’t working.

As people get vaccinated they also become less interested in slavish adherence to restrictions.

 

[Ekka]

Love this Front Page for the NT News:

"We've previously asked for the NT to be put back into QaNTas. Now that push is closer than ever cough the airline talks of a DARWIN HUB FOR LONDON DIRECT FLIGHTS"

The AFR gets in on the action too with "Joyce warns WA on travel plan"

The Irishman has continued to ignore the Q in Qantas, as well as the NT.
It's SAMAS, now, with his imprimatur, don't you know?

 

[roogirl]

There’s about 21,000 VicPol for 6+ million Victorians. You cannot police your way out of a pandemic through restrictions. The current ones are tough and aren’t working.

As people get vaccinated they also become less interested in slavish adherence to restrictions.

This. Once the over 50s are vaxxed watch the mood change and fast. The question is whether any of Dan’s social media wallahs pick up on it in time.

 

[mviy]

More and more of the majority of the most vulnerable, the elderly are fully vaccinated. Even some elderly friends that were resistant against getting AZ have now changed their minds as the situation in NSW could easily happen anywhere in the country, and gone out and had their first AZ dose at least.

In Melbourne where we have had over 200 days of lockdown people are sick of the restrictions. That's what gives me confidence that VIC is far more likely to reopen to international travel than WA or QLD. I think Dan knows that once vaccination rates are much higher the people of VIC will no longer stand for extended statewide lockdowns.

 

[jb747]

There’s about 21,000 VicPol for 6+ million Victorians. You cannot police your way out of a pandemic through restrictions. The current ones are tough and aren’t working.

As people get vaccinated they also become less interested in slavish adherence to restrictions.

In Melbourne where we have had over 200 days of lockdown people are sick of the restrictions. That's what gives me confidence that VIC is far more likely to reopen to international travel than WA or QLD. I think Dan knows that once vaccination rates are much higher the people of VIC will no longer stand for extended statewide lockdowns.

I made a comment some time ago, that a lot of the Victorian reaction has 'the boy who called wolf' about it. Dan has repeatedly locked down areas that have no incidence of covid. People might be understanding of lockdowns when the virus is nearby, but not when it's only being done as it's easier for the police. The upshot is that he might need those 21,000 sooner than he realises.

 

[jakeseven7]

Anyone still drinking the "sane dude governing sanely in the interests of Victorians" Kool-Aid?

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Our contacts have said internally VIC have completely moved on from ‘zero’ and are planning much different things / it’s just the talking points are a little behind while they firm that up and get it all signed off etc.

In the interim they are just driving vaccinations as hard and loudly as they can.

Apparently their drive in vax centres have been an huge hit and NSW did a copy paste and opened one recently too. Problem is they take alot more room obviously…

 

[bernardblack]

Our contacts have said internally VIC have completely moved on from ‘zero’ and are planning much different things / it’s just the talking points are a little behind while they firm that up and get it all signed off etc.

In the interim they are just driving vaccinations as hard and loudly as they can.

Apparently their drive in vax centres have been an huge hit and NSW did a copy paste and opened one recently too. Problem is they take alot more room obviously…

I hope the "moved on" bit is right and I wish they'd hurry it up.

I had always assumed he was just a terrible person but have been vacillating recently between that and "he legitimately thinks this will work" and wasn't sure how either of those things get corrected until his colleagues replace him.

 

[kamchatsky]

Anyone still drinking the "sane dude governing sanely in the interests of Victorians" Kool-Aid?

View attachment 256724

Well, technically he is right. There is a chance*

* Very very small one.... Approaching zero.

 

[sydunipete]

Speaking of the various Governments, and others like Qantas, all being on the same page with respect to international travel that "same page" is currently the one below (well until it gets updated).

The Qantas press release today certainly reflects what is shown below.

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Note the extensive use of the word "may". I applaud the plan (even though I feel it is conservative) but I note it leaves a lot of wriggle room for the PM to renege on the expectations. Fingers crossed that I am wrong.

 

[sydunipete]

The idea is (or should be), you've come from a country with similar vaccination rates, so yeah you might have caught covid on the tube travelling to LHR. So you might spread covid to someone on the domestic flight to Darwin.

But, maybe you didn't catch covid in London. But someone in Sydney has covid, and gets on the same flight to Darwin, and now you've caught covid off them.

Point is, there will be covid around. We need to get out of this mentality that inside Australia = safe, outside Australia = bad. That's why we're going for 80% vaccination.

Absolutely correct. As of last week I am twice as likely to catch covid in NSW than I am in Sweden. So on that basis what is the value of inbound quarantine except for passengers from hotspots?

 

[sydunipete]

They would have to go well past 80% to do that by which time other states like VIC may well have reached 80%

It’ll probably be that the nation reaches 80% and then a date is set that allows a few more states that are close on projections to reach 80% as well.

A date is what's required. How can QANTAS and other travel based businesses (and government organisations) plan for reopening without an actual date? Morrison and his team know exactly when enough vaccines will be in the country to do 80% of the population. There is no reason (except political) that that date couldn't be published now along with the exact measures to be implemented.

 

[Pushka]

A date is what's required. How can QANTAS and other travel based businesses (and government organisations) plan for reopening without an actual date? Morrison and his team know exactly when enough vaccines will be in the country to do 80% of the population. There is no reason (except political) that that date couldn't be published now along with the exact measures to be implemented.

Based on current rates - Australia all done by end of November.
80% fully vaccinated at current rate:

NSW: 39 days - 08/10/2021
VIC: 60 - 29/10/2021
QLD: 81 - 19/11/2021
WA: 77 - 15/11/2021
SA: 88 - 26/11/2021
TAS: 73 - 11/11/2021
ACT: 44 - 13/10/2021
NT: 81 - 19/11/2021

 

[mviy]

Based on current rates - Australia all done by end of November.
80% fully vaccinated at current rate:

NSW: 39 days - 08/10/2021
VIC: 60 - 29/10/2021
QLD: 81 - 19/11/2021
WA: 77 - 15/11/2021
SA: 88 - 26/11/2021
TAS: 73 - 11/11/2021
ACT: 44 - 13/10/2021
NT: 81 - 19/11/2021

But hopefully we'll soon find the rates increase as supply of Pfizer improves and Moderna becomes available so hopefully we'll hit the 80% target sooner than that.

Setting a date will come, but not yet.

There's things to be worked through too like how much of an opportunity will they give those stuck overseas waiting to get home to get home before opening the floodgates to let others depart Australia?

The arrivals caps are meant to double back to what they were before when we reach 70%, but to clear a lot of the backlog we'll need much higher caps than that.

 

[JB expat]

Fantasizing about a return to travel for both business and pleasure, got me thinking about the duty of care placed on employers - esp in countries with safe workplace type laws. I wonder if companies will start to require that employees fly only on airlines with vaccine mandates for staff and passengers (or at least staff). While it may take a while, I think that capitalism will drive behavior in the direction I am hoping for. Yes, I'd prefer faster action by legislation, but if that doesn't happen, I think things will sort themselves out. There are way more people who want to mitigate the risk of catching covid than who are fighting for their right not to vaccinate. I know that vaccination is not perfection in terms of protection - but it is a risk mitigation factor.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Based on current rates - Australia all done by end of November.
80% fully vaccinated at current rate:

NSW: 39 days - 08/10/2021
VIC: 60 - 29/10/2021
QLD: 81 - 19/11/2021
WA: 77 - 15/11/2021
SA: 88 - 26/11/2021
TAS: 73 - 11/11/2021
ACT: 44 - 13/10/2021
NT: 81 - 19/11/2021

Are these personal projections or some publication? Very enthusiastic projections

eg NSW - it would mean 1% per day average (yes achievable), then 4 weeks for second dose (not so sure - roughly perhaps a 75% Pfizer mix and assuming Pfizer has not been extended to up to 6 weeks and Astra Zeneca is being brought into 6 weeks)

 

[ketsuzei]

Based on current rates - Australia all done by end of November.
80% fully vaccinated at current rate:

And there's no chance whatsoever that the discussion will then shift to "when will we all have received boosters"?