Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[lovetravellingoz]

Correct. And I believe we are seeing that already. The daily death rate peaked at just over 10,000 in mid-April and it’s been trending down since then (despite the infection rate increasing).

I am not sure it is quite that simple. Are you sure that it is not rather:

• That those more at risk are now taking better care to not get infected?
• Age care facilities are now more prepared to protect their residents
• More widespread testing is being done worldwide. Early on it was often limited to those that were already quite ill. So as a % more people who will only have mild symptoms are now being tested.
• Doctors now have more experience at treating Covid 19 and so are achieving better outcomes
• Many health systems have been ramped up to offer better care
• Virus now spreading to third world, but populations are typically younger and with less people having the ""affluent"" risk factors.

PS: The cruise ships have stopped sailing!!!!

 

[shamatam]

CR, there will never be a vaccine. We have to live with this, and it will take some pain for Governments and Countries to realise you can't wrap us all up in cotton wool. Best case scenario for (relatively) unfettered international travel may be mid next year at the earliest.

Agree OZNFILFAN, never one before, nothing coming now. And YES, maybe international 12months from now.

 

[Gremlin]

ScoMo was just asked about AJ's comments around no expectation of International Travel in the next FY. He replied that "We hope we can come to an arrange with NZ before that. ... [Otherwise] it is not an unreasonable for Alan Joyce to form the view he has."

I take from that there's no Trans-Tasman bubble imminent. And that other destinations are a long way off.

 

[Pushka]

ScoMo was just asked about AJ's comments around no expectation of International Travel in the next FY. He replied that "We hope we can come to an arrange with NZ before that. ... [Otherwise] it is not an unreasonable for Alan Joyce to form the view he has."

I take from that there's no Trans-Tasman bubble imminent. And that other destinations are a long way off.

The only solution NZ will provide as far as airlines go is for NZ. I wonder if Qantas would even bother

 

[Gremlin]

The only solution NZ will provide as far as airlines go is for NZ. I wonder if Qantas would even bother

Not quite sure I follow here...

Are you saying that NZ will only agree to a bubble if Air NZ is the sole carrier? Is that what you mean?

 

[CityRail]

ScoMo was just asked about AJ's comments around no expectation of International Travel in the next FY. He replied that "We hope we can come to an arrange with NZ before that. ... [Otherwise] it is not an unreasonable for Alan Joyce to form the view he has."

I take from that there's no Trans-Tasman bubble imminent. And that other destinations are a long way off.

Provided an outbreak in Victoria, in order for Trans-Tasman Bubble to commence, we need to first contain the Victorian outbreak until the community transmission will stay very low first.

Moreover, NZ is having their General Election on 17 September, and you don't want to spoil the winning position by too many imported cases from overseas. So I suppose the NZ bubble will only happen after that.

So the my prediction is: Intrastate travel by Queens' Birthday Holiday, Some Interstate travel around Winter School Holidays and Trans-Tasman by Labour Day School Holiday. By Labour Day School Holiday we should see some more results of vaccine testing which should be clearer if we can go further away by Christmas School Holidays.

 

[dajop]

my prediction and Trans-Tasman by Labour Day School Holiday.

Hedging your bets with this prediction ?

That could be October 2020, March 2021 or May 2021 depending on which state!

 

[VPS]

Provided an outbreak in Victoria, in order for Trans-Tasman Bubble to commence, we need to first contain the Victorian outbreak until the community transmission will stay very low first.

Moreover, NZ is having their General Election on 17 September, and you don't want to spoil the winning position by too many imported cases from overseas. So I suppose the NZ bubble will only happen after that.

So the my prediction is: Intrastate travel by Queens' Birthday Holiday, Some Interstate travel around Winter School Holidays and Trans-Tasman by Labour Day School Holiday. By Labour Day School Holiday we should see some more results of vaccine testing which should be clearer if we can go further away by Christmas School Holidays.

you are still maintaining this optimism for a vaccine this year and I think you are going to be sadly disappointed.

 

[OZDUCK]

There is also hedging available for the Queens Birthday prediction as there are three different dates for that as well

 

[jakeseven7]

ScoMo was just asked about AJ's comments around no expectation of International Travel in the next FY. He replied that "We hope we can come to an arrange with NZ before that. ... [Otherwise] it is not an unreasonable for Alan Joyce to form the view he has."

Yes, because AJ aligned all his comments with the government before the announcement. They are working hand in glove.

 

[CityRail]

Hedging your bets with this prediction ?

That could be October 2020, March 2021 or May 2021 depending on which state!

These school holidays comes from the perspective of NSW.

In other words, Intra-State by June (Already Happened), InterState by Winter (July as many states are reopening), Trans-Tasman by October, and hopefully further by Christmas.

 

[p--and--t]

Yes, because AJ aligned all his comments with the government before the announcement. They are working hand in glove.

AJ only repeated what Birmingham I believe said publicly several days ago. Don't need to be "colluding" to agree with the Tourism minister's official statements.

 

[CityRail]

you are still maintaining this optimism for a vaccine this year and I think you are going to be sadly disappointed.

I do believe a vaccine will be approved at the end of the year, and I don't think I will be disappointed, because that's what scientists are working towards this goal.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Oh no, please not another ‘vaccine this year’ thread

Qantas Loyalty ... continues to see strong levels of engagement, with a range of initiatives planned over the next six months to maintain and improve its value to members and partners.

Anyone like to speculate on the range of initiatves?

cheers skip

 

[jakeseven7]

AJ only repeated what Birmingham I believe said publicly several days ago. Don't need to be "colluding" to agree with the Tourism minister's official statements.

He mentioned in the press conference they had met that morning....

I wasn't saying they were colluding, they are clearly working very closely which is to be expected!

 

[VPS]

I do believe a vaccine will be approved at the end of the year, and I don't think I will be disappointed, because that's what scientists are working towards this goal.

Scientists can work all they like but if you honestly believe there will be a vaccine by the end of this year then you are going to be sadly disappointed. It just isn't going to happen.

 

[DC3]

I do believe a vaccine will be approved at the end of the year, and I don't think I will be disappointed, because that's what scientists are working towards this goal.

No need to wait for the vax. POTUS has already announced a drug that we should be taking.

 

[james4321]

No need to wait for the vax. POTUS has already announced a drug that we should be taking.

ROFL.

 

[Pushka]

Not quite sure I follow here...

Are you saying that NZ will only agree to a bubble if Air NZ is the sole carrier? Is that what you mean?

No. More like I don't think Qantas will bother getting together all the requirements (catering, engineering, crew etc) if the only international option was NZ. Totally my opinion only.

Post automatically merged: Jun 26, 2020

you are still maintaining this optimism for a vaccine this year and I think you are going to be sadly disappointed.

Add on to that, production, distribution and availability. World wide.

 

[Gremlin]

No. More like I don't think Qantas will bother getting together all the requirements (catering, engineering, crew etc) if the only international option was NZ. Totally my opinion only.

Oh okay. I get it now.

I was wondering the other day whether a NZ bubble, if it ever gets off the ground, comes with the long-aspired promise to transition to domestic terminals? Potentially much more palatable for both QF and ANZ to run across the ditch as an extension of a domestic airline rather than the sole destinations in an international schedule? But I'm a mug punter on this, so there's probably heaps of logistics that would need to be addressed (not least of which any border requirements).