I think 12 month's protection should be sufficient and I am really hoping that with the roll out of AstraZeneca vaccine we can resume international travel as soon as possible later this year.
I believe CEOs have insider information which they will be liable if they cannot provide a truthful information to the public, moreover, I am quietly confident of a SARS-Cov-2 vaccine be introduced at the end of the year because governments across the western world have been pouring millions of dollars into Operation Warp Speed, which they are hoping this can be over as soon as possible and reopen the economy.
I would say a half-baked vaccine which provides a limited amount of protection would enable scientists to buy more time to develop a more permanent vaccine.
Moreover, besides vaccine, Australians have already found an anti-viral from Monash University which they are hoping for roll out before the end of the year:
www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/australian-scientists-make-global-breakthrough-on-new-antiviral-drug-against-covid-19-infection-ng-b881584958z
I believe everyone is desperate for this to be over and I believe our scientists are working around the clock to ensure this happens.
Half baked vaccines can be dangerous and actually worsen the disease as happened with polio initially.Quite a few vaccines have ended up failing in phase 1,2 or 3 trials so these should not be shortened.
Then there is this from a PDF-vaccines successes and failures.For costs this is from 2010 so larger now.
"Second, all involved must understand the amount
of time and money required to bring these vaccines from the bench to
the people. Time can be measured directly. Cost data, on the other
hand, are more difficult to obtain from industry. Such information is
not readily available for most vaccines. Yet, recently, two companies
have released some cost data that can be used as examples. One,
VaxGen, reported on the costs of its failed HIV vaccine. They stated
that their total costs, through phase III, were approximately $300
million [5]. The other company, Aviron, reportedthe costs required to
develop their Flumist nasal influenza vaccine. Those costs were estimated
to be $340 million for a fully licensed product [6]. For both of
these products,
the time from bench to end of phase III testing and/or
licensure took a decade or more and we can be assured that by the
time the final product would have reached the street, the costs would
be two to three times higher."
Note the time it can take to develop some vaccines.The SARS vaccine was finally ready for Phase 3 trials in 2016.If any vaccine was going to be effective by October it might have been this one hoping for cross immunity.It possibly was tested again in phase 1 trials to see if antibodies to Covid 19 were induced but I can find no reports of this.Here is a report on that vaccine.
"We just could not generate much interest," a researcher said of the difficulty in getting funding to test the vaccine in humans.
www.nbcnews.com
7news.com.au
. Alas for your argument, I doubt such an approval would convince narky stick-in-the-muds like the FDA or the TGA to release anything. I finish with a quote from H. G. Nelson, always apt for discussion boards
