Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

The two I looked at are “Citizens”

OK, it would seem they perhaps misunderstand the whole do not travel thing. A Brit citizen who's been living in Australia for 40 years is covered (but of course can't travel) but an Australian citizen who's been living in Britain for 40 years isn't covered (but can travel).

 

[CityRail]

I’d love this to be true but there will not be a commercially available vaccine in October 2020. Zero chance in fact.

I would like to know why not? We have operation Warp Speed, in addition this is from the mouth of the CEO, and Moderna's vaccine will be available early 2021, so I don't understand why we will not have a vaccine then.

 

[OATEK]

I would like to know why not? We have operation Warp Speed, in addition this is from the mouth of the CEO, and Moderna's vaccine will be available early 2021, so I don't understand why we will not have a vaccine then.

The history of testing and approval for new drugs/vaccines suggests no quick outcome. Having a viable vaccine, and having approval to administer could be many months apart.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I would like to know why not? We have operation Warp Speed, in addition this is from the mouth of the CEO, and Moderna's vaccine will be available early 2021, so I don't understand why we will not have a vaccine then.

The time frame is just too short. Read this article, it’s excellent and explains the processes better than any CEO.
University of Melbourne

 

[moa999]

And the AstraZeneca one which seems to be the most advanced of the big pharma trials will reportedly only give 12 months protection.

AstraZeneca CEO Soriot says fast-tracked COVID-19 shot will protect for just one year

AstraZeneca, advancing a COVID-19 vaccine from the University of Oxford, is among global front | AstraZeneca, advancing a COVID-19 vaccine from the University of Oxford, is among global frontrunners in the worldwide hunt for a viable vaccine. But the drugmaker’s CEO now says the vaccine will...

www.fiercepharma.com

Can we even rollout vaccines worldwide - so 6+ billion doses that quickly?

 

[JB expat]

And the AstraZeneca one which seems to be the most advanced of the big pharma trials will reportedly only give 12 months protection.

AstraZeneca CEO Soriot says fast-tracked COVID-19 shot will protect for just one year

AstraZeneca, advancing a COVID-19 vaccine from the University of Oxford, is among global front | AstraZeneca, advancing a COVID-19 vaccine from the University of Oxford, is among global frontrunners in the worldwide hunt for a viable vaccine. But the drugmaker’s CEO now says the vaccine will...

www.fiercepharma.com

Can we even rollout vaccines worldwide - so 6+ billion doses that quickly?

flu shot protection is seasonal - and I've been told only lasts for about 4 months. i've had 2 in the same year when I get one for here in Aus (approaching winter) and then have travel plans to the USA during northern hemisphere winter. the initial roll out will take ages, but eventually an annual vaccine program would be very similar to flu. I imagine that essential workers would be first as well as those with heath conditions that make them more vulnerable - of course each country would control its own roll out. it might be that travelers have a "middle place" in the line for the initial phase of the mass roll out. of course, all speculation from a non-expert (me)

 

[p--and--t]

this is from the mouth of the CEO,

CEOs are interested in the share price and profits (and their bonuses that are tied to same).

Whether they deliver on their promises/timelines is a totally different matter; particularly when its never been done before by any company anywhere for any other disease, even those more well understood than this one.

 

[CityRail]

And the AstraZeneca one which seems to be the most advanced of the big pharma trials will reportedly only give 12 months protection.

AstraZeneca CEO Soriot says fast-tracked COVID-19 shot will protect for just one year

AstraZeneca, advancing a COVID-19 vaccine from the University of Oxford, is among global front | AstraZeneca, advancing a COVID-19 vaccine from the University of Oxford, is among global frontrunners in the worldwide hunt for a viable vaccine. But the drugmaker’s CEO now says the vaccine will...

www.fiercepharma.com

Can we even rollout vaccines worldwide - so 6+ billion doses that quickly?

I think 12 month's protection should be sufficient and I am really hoping that with the roll out of AstraZeneca vaccine we can resume international travel as soon as possible later this year.

I believe CEOs have insider information which they will be liable if they cannot provide a truthful information to the public, moreover, I am quietly confident of a SARS-Cov-2 vaccine be introduced at the end of the year because governments across the western world have been pouring millions of dollars into Operation Warp Speed, which they are hoping this can be over as soon as possible and reopen the economy.

I would say a half-baked vaccine which provides a limited amount of protection would enable scientists to buy more time to develop a more permanent vaccine.

Moreover, besides vaccine, Australians have already found an anti-viral from Monash University which they are hoping for roll out before the end of the year:

www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/australian-scientists-make-global-breakthrough-on-new-antiviral-drug-against-covid-19-infection-ng-b881584958z

I believe everyone is desperate for this to be over and I believe our scientists are working around the clock to ensure this happens.

 

[p--and--t]

I believe CEOs have insider information which they will be liable if they cannot provide a truthful information to the public,

Unfortunately you always read what you want to read and not what was said.

If you read the actual statements made by these researchers and CEOs they have not made any promises about anything.

The statements are always "we are hopeful", "if everything works out", "if everything goes to plan", "if there are no hic-cups", "we think that it might". ...

They know it will help the companies share price, garner more funding, boost media attention without paying for it, help secure orders without the requirement to deliver anything at all. And nobody can sue them or criticise them.

Edit: Think of the guy who comes on the TV advert and tells you "you could" win $20M in Saturday's lottery - he's is not lying, but I suggest don't quit your job on Friday.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I think 12 month's protection should be sufficient and I am really hoping that with the roll out of AstraZeneca vaccine we can resume international travel as soon as possible later this year.

I believe CEOs have insider information which they will be liable if they cannot provide a truthful information to the public, moreover, I am quietly confident of a SARS-Cov-2 vaccine be introduced at the end of the year because governments across the western world have been pouring millions of dollars into Operation Warp Speed, which they are hoping this can be over as soon as possible and reopen the economy.

I would say a half-baked vaccine which provides a limited amount of protection would enable scientists to buy more time to develop a more permanent vaccine.

Moreover, besides vaccine, Australians have already found an anti-viral from Monash University which they are hoping for roll out before the end of the year:

www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/australian-scientists-make-global-breakthrough-on-new-antiviral-drug-against-covid-19-infection-ng-b881584958z

I believe everyone is desperate for this to be over and I believe our scientists are working around the clock to ensure this happens.

Operation Warp Speed is a US Government initiative with aims at having a safe, effective vaccine delivered by January 2021.
Explaining Operation Warp Speed
There will be no half-baked vaccine released so we can all travel this year. The public health consequences of that would be absolutely catastrophic.
The drug mentioned in The Australian works in a computer simulation, it’s very far from being rolled out to anyone other than rodents any time soon.

I know that you are desperate to travel, lots of us are.
Sadly it’s not going to happen if we are relying on a vaccine this year to make it safe.

 

[CityRail]

Operation Warp Speed is a US Government initiative with aims at having a safe, effective vaccine delivered by January 2021.
Explaining Operation Warp Speed
There will be no half-baked vaccine released so we can all travel this year. The public health consequences of that would be absolutely catastrophic.
The drug mentioned in The Australian works in a computer simulation, it’s very far from being rolled out to anyone other than rodents any time soon.

I know that you are desperate to travel, lots of us are.
Sadly it’s not going to happen if we are relying on a vaccine this year to make it safe.

So how can media can say it may be ready by the end of the year for anti-viral?

I am sure it will need to go through some medical trial and as we have millions of patients, couldn't we just administer to some patients asap so we can get some results and get it approved?

The effect of the international travel ban will see a lot of jobs lost, not able to go home to see my parents is one thing, but losing jobs is a biggie, especially the international students revenue.

I feel the government is not doing anywhere enough to keep the sector afloat and that makes me feel depressed.

 

[p--and--t]

So how can media can say it may be ready by the end of the year for anti-viral?

You are confusing a hopeful "may be" to fill column inches and obtain click bait with "will be available". I hope to win the lottery one day as well.

I am sure it will need to go through some medical trial and as we have millions of patients, couldn't we just administer to some patients asap so we can get some results and get it approved?

A vaccine won't help you if you already have the disease, its for people who don't have the disease/ to prevent them getting the disease.

You don't administer a vaccine to millions without knowing for certain it isn't going to kill them or otherwise seriously harm them.

 

[CityRail]

A vaccine won't help you if you already have the disease, its for people who don't have the disease/ to prevent them getting the disease.

You don't administer a vaccine to millions without knowing for certain it isn't going to kill them or otherwise seriously harm them.

How about Anti-Virals? Wouldn't if this is available by the end of the year that could work as a cure to the disease?

 

[Princess Fiona]

How about Anti-Virals? Wouldn't if this is available by the end of the year that could work as a cure to the disease?

There won’t be an effective anti-viral to cure Covid-19 in that timeframe, in fact probably never.

 

[Himeno]

I would like to know why not? We have operation Warp Speed, in addition this is from the mouth of the CEO, and Moderna's vaccine will be available early 2021, so I don't understand why we will not have a vaccine then.

Because that is not how vaccine development works.
Vaccine development normally takes 5-10 years. The programs like "operation warp speed" are aimed at bringing that down to 12-18 months, and that time frame is cutting out or doubling up on tasks as much as possible while still meeting the testing and research requirements needed for a new drug.
The first Covid-19 vaccine started development in late Jan. It is very unlikely to have a vaccine passing all pre release trials (of which there are 4, 3 in humans, each with increasing numbers of subjects, meant to determine dosage, side effects, efficacy, effectiveness and safety), get approval by regulatory bodies like the FDA or TGA, then be made in amounts required for widespread circulation, in less then 8 months.

There are now 194 vaccine candidates in development. Only 13 are in human testing stages. Of those, only 2 are about to start stage 3 trials. Stage 3 trials require up to 3000 volunteers and take the longest. Normally, stage 3 trials, on their own, take 2-3 years. That isn't something that can be compressed easily into 2-3 months.

The earliest that will be a vaccine available is next March, assuming the candidates now in later parts of stage 2 trials pass stage 3 trials quickly and without problems.

You have said "vaccine out by Oct" a number of times now, and each time you've been shown that it won't happen. Are you ignoring what you don't want to hear? Do you not understand what people are telling you?

The reason some parts of the media are reporting things like "vaccine by Oct" is because Trump wants a vaccine released just before the US election on November 3 in order to boost his approval ratings right before the vote.

 

[TiredOldFlyer]

The Therapeutic Drug Administration and Medicines Australia are very conservative when it comes to approving news drugs for use in Australia and rightly so.
An approved drug in say the USA does not mean automatic
approval in Australia. Unless there is a dramatic change of policy relying on a vaccine for Covid before overseas travel
could be some years away.

 

[p--and--t]

How about Anti-Virals? Wouldn't if this is available by the end of the year that could work as a cure to the disease?

Just sit back and think for a few minutes about the reality of what you are reading from those people in click-bait media who are trying to promote themselves for financial gain against the reality of life.

More than 75M have been infected and 25M died from HIV and it took nearly 35 years and billions of $ to come up with medication that has a reasonable but not foolproof chance of stopping people being infected but still has significant side effects. There is still no vaccine.

Researchers have been trying to find something effective against the flu for more than 100yrs and poured billions into research and still only have a partially effective vaccine with very limited length of effectiveness. Worldwide there are around 250-500,000 deaths per year. Thousands die in Australia every year despite administering a partially effective vaccine to up to 14M Australians alone.

For researchers to find an effective vaccine or other silver bullet treatment that doesn't harm people for a brand new disease is not going to happen in 3 months , 6 months, 9 months, 12 months. If they are very lucky they is a slight possibility of having something partially effective for some parts of the population in 18 months but typically the required studies take 5+ years and have an extremely high failure rate.

The approval process alone will take months if not years. Authorities have been bitten many times before by manufacturers producing things with side effects where the cure is worse than the problem. Google thalidomide for an example.

 

[I love to travel]

Just sit back and think for a few minutes about the reality of what you are reading from those people in click-bait media who are trying to promote themselves for financial gain against the reality of life.

More than 75M have been infected and 25M died from HIV and it took nearly 35 years and billions of $ to come up with medication that has a reasonable but not foolproof chance of stopping people being infected but still has significant side effects. There is still no vaccine.

Researchers have been trying to find something effective against the flu for more than 100yrs and poured billions into research and still only have a partially effective vaccine with very limited effectiveness. Worldwide there are around 250-500,000 deaths per year. Thousands die in Australia every year despite administering a partially effective vaccine to up to 14M Australians alone.

For researchers to find an effective vaccine or other silver bullet treatment that doesn't harm people for a brand new disease is not going to happen in 3 months , 6 months, 9 months, 12 months. If they are very lucky they is a slight possibility of having something partially effective for some parts of the population in 18 months but typically the required studies take 5+ years and have an extremely high failure rate.

The approval process alone will take months if not years. Authorities have been bitten many times before by manufacturers producing things with side effects where the cure is worse than the problem. Google thalidomide for an example.

I would so love to argue with your post, it's depressing and doesn't mention successful medical interventions that don't take years to develop. Only problem is I think you are right. The world will not be remotely the same for a very long time.

 

[Himeno]

For researchers to find an effective vaccine or other silver bullet treatment that doesn't harm people for a brand new disease is not going to happen in 3 months , 6 months, 9 months, 12 months. If they are very lucky they is a slight possibility of having something partially effective for some parts of the population in 18 months but typically the required studies take 5+ years and have an extremely high failure rate.

For example, a study in the UK has just found that an existing anti-inflammatory medication, dexamethasone, helps "cure" the most severe cases of Covid infection, those people in ICU. It reduces the immune response which then prevents the high levels of inflammation which leads to severe cases landing in ICU.
It does nothing to prevent covid-19, nor does it help in any way with mild cases. It just makes severe cases less severe, while increasing chances of some problematic side effects like muscle weakness.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Cityrail, I love your boundless hopefulness.

The reason some parts of the media are reporting things like "vaccine by Oct" is because Trump wants a vaccine released just before the US election on November 3 in order to boost his approval ratings right before the vote.

There is the wild card. Trump! I can just imagine him personally approving something, on the basis of nothing much, around about Halloween and just before the US election. Alas for your argument, I doubt such an approval would convince narky stick-in-the-muds like the FDA or the TGA to release anything. I finish with a quote from H. G. Nelson, always apt for discussion boards

All you need, Roy, is an opinion. Preferably backed up by a great deal of ignorance.

cheers skip