Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Dr Ralph]

Gloomy prediction about the resumption of international flights.
I would suggest there will be one almighty uproar if family Christmas reunions are prevented from happening because of the large expat communities in Oz.

Rule it out now.

 

[DC3]

... I would suggest there will be one almighty uproar if family Christmas reunions are prevented from happening because of the large expat communities in Oz.

Better chance in 2021.

 

[kpc]

Every time I hear of a case of Covid 19 in a returned OS traveller (luckily so far they are in mandatory hotel quarantine), I fear it pushes back when Australia's international border will reopen. Unless there is a vaccine, I find it hard to see OS leisure travel being a reality til the 2nd half of 2021 despite all the enthusiasm I see here and the media. I'm not rushing to book anything even though I want to go to Japan at Easter next year.

 

[luxury-lizard]

Every time I hear of a case of Covid 19 in a returned OS traveller (luckily so far they are in mandatory hotel quarantine), I fear it pushes back when Australia's international border will reopen. Unless there is a vaccine, I find it hard to see OS leisure travel being a reality til the 2nd half of 2021 despite all the enthusiasm I see here and the media. I'm not rushing to book anything even though I want to go to Japan at Easter next year.

I agree that the number of returned travellers testing positive while in hotel quarantine is really a worry - not sure what percentage of returnees this represents as the news does not say. However I also think the pressure from Australians and residents to be allowed to travel freely will increase particularly as the risk eases (in some countries at least).

I know of a number of people (mature risk-adverse adults) who have already applied for an exemption to leave the county to visit close relatives in either the UK or US. AFAIK the exemptions have not been approved as yet (not denied either). I also know others who have stated that why will not travel until there is a vaccine even when borders are open (this includes people who are "desperate" to visit relatives overseas).

It's also not clear to me how a NZ "bubble" will work - if Aussies are free to travel to NZ then they could leave for a third country from NZ - can't see NZ border control being willing to enforce our border closure.

Personally I think the international border should be open for people departing - with hotel quarantine on return being at their own expense - it people what to take the risk (including probably not being able to obtain travel insurance) - it's up to them - just don't expect the government to rescue them.

 

[Pushka]

Personally I think the international border should be open for people departing - with hotel quarantine on return being at their own expense - it people what to take the risk (including probably not being able to obtain travel insurance) - it's up to them - just don't expect the government to rescue them

This. Both sons are desperate to go to the UK, one so that his wife can see her ageing parents, and the other so he can go and live in the UK to get a working visa which he has to do before he turns 31 - next January. His partner lives in the UK. The latter has no intentions of returning to Aus for at least 12 months but likely longer.

 

[jase05]

Over 150k of new cases yesterday which is the most since the pandemic started and plenty of predictions that it is still ramping up especially in the America’s. Germany even has had a pretty big spike of late. Unfortunately I just can’t see International travel opening up anytime soon

 

[jase05]

Over 150k of new cases yesterday which is the most since the pandemic started and plenty of predictions that it is still ramping up especially in the America’s. Germany even has had a pretty big spike of late. Unfortunately I just can’t see International travel opening up anytime soon

Actually scrap that.
180k cases in the last 24hrs

 

[jakeseven7]

Personally I think the international border should be open for people departing - with hotel quarantine on return being at their own expense - it people what to take the risk (including probably not being able to obtain travel insurance) - it's up to them - just don't expect the government to rescue them.

Our politicians can’t even sort out internal borders so what hope is there for a coherent strategy on international borders!

 

[oz_mark]

It's also not clear to me how a NZ "bubble" will work - if Aussies are free to travel to NZ then they could leave for a third country from NZ - can't see NZ border control being willing to enforce our border closure.

The idea of a bubble is that the countries in it will all have matching border closures (more or less)

Personally I think the international border should be open for people departing - with hotel quarantine on return being at their own expense - it people what to take the risk (including probably not being able to obtain travel insurance) - it's up to them - just don't expect the government to rescue them.

Expect to see plenty of activity on Gofundme in that case. People will pretend they accept the risk, but when it all goes to custard, a percentage will be complaining about how the government let them down...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Our politicians can’t even sort out internal borders so what hope is there for a coherent strategy on international borders!

They can sort it out! You just don't like what they are doing.

 

[jakeseven7]

They can sort it out! You just don't like what they are doing.

Nothing that’s right. And they’ve said no international until domestic borders open. So round we go

 

[jase05]

Nothing that’s right. And they’ve said no international until domestic borders open. So round we go

Do you honestly believe that though?
If all borders magically opened tomorrow can you realistically see any meaningful international travel anytime soon?

 

[p--and--t]

Our politicians can’t even sort out internal borders so what hope is there for a coherent strategy on international borders!

There's a big difference from the AU point of view.

Only one gov to sort out international. 9 different ones with their fingers in the pie for the state borders.

 

[CityRail]

Actually scrap that.
180k cases in the last 24hrs

Very likely the government would need to see the curve of the world flattening before we can travel overseas again.

I don't even know when we will be able to go back to Hong Kong to see my parents

 

[auriga]

Malaysia seeks to open its borders to six 'green' countries, says Dr Noor Hisham

PUTRAJAYA: Malaysia has begun discussions with six “green” countries that it would like to open its borders to post-Covid-19.

www.thestar.com.my

...
PUTRAJAYA: Malaysia has begun discussions with six “green” countries that it would like to open its borders to post-Covid-19.

Health director-general Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said the six countries were Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.
......

Wishful thinking???

 

[tgh]

its borders to post-Covid-19

This is a very common and quite fallacious concept , it is published everywhere and is quite delusional.
There is no post Covid-19. (imo of course ymmv)
There may be a time when humans can be vaccinated to mitigate its presence.. but thats it.

 

[Dr Ralph]

Very likely the government would need to see the curve of the world flattening before we can travel overseas again.

So you're saying never then.

 

[drron]

its borders to post-Covid-19

This is a very common and quite fallacious concept , it is published everywhere and is quite delusional.
There is no post Covid-19. (imo of course ymmv)
There may be a time when humans can be vaccinated to mitigate its presence.. but thats it.

Of course there is post Covid 19.There has been a post Black Death period so why not post Covid 19.
The plague originated in China and took some 7 years to reach Europe as it travelled by ship and trade routes.Covid probably only took days and no more than a few weeks to spread around the globe.Quarantine comes from the time of the plague-Italian for 40 days the time they kept people on ships before letting them on shore.

Even though it died out there have been periodic periods of resurgence and even today it is extimated there are 1-3000 cases per year.

There is even a post H1N1 flu period-it is the sub type of flu which caused the spanish Flu and also the Swine flu epidemic in 2009 -despite flu vaccines and successful antiviral agents.It is still around.In 2017 Australia had a bad flu season then with over 250000 cases and 1255 deaths.One of the problems was the vaccine that year was only 10% effective against the Influenza A H3N2 strain which caused most of the severe cases and deaths.But the H1N1 strain was also present and caused some deaths.Major mortality was in aged care and Tasmania had the highest incidence.So that year more cases and deaths than Covid but no one even thought of closing state borders or not swanning off on OS jaunts and cruises.

So a little bit of advice tgh.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Never say never. It was only 325 years or so before the black death stopped circulating continuously through Europe.

 

[shamatam]

2021 before we get out of here.