Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[mviy]

I hope the new Doherty modelling isn't shifting the goal posts yet again. The targets were already set higher than they should have been.

 

[jrfsp]

I hope the new Doherty modelling isn't shifting the goal posts yet again. The targets were already set higher than they should have been.

sounds like it..

New Doherty modelling advises ‘medium’ Covid restrictions until Australia reaches 80% vaccination

Exclusive: Summary of sensitivity analysis to be presented at national cabinet says pandemic will continue to be ‘a fire fought on multiple fronts’

www.theguardian.com

New modelling by the Doherty Institute being presented to national cabinet warns that maintaining “medium” public health and social measures would be “prudent” until Australia reaches 80% vaccination if caseloads are high – with “medium” measures previously defined as including stay-at-home orders except for work, study and other essential purposes.

 

[Princess Fiona]

sounds like it..

New Doherty modelling advises ‘medium’ Covid restrictions until Australia reaches 80% vaccination

Exclusive: Summary of sensitivity analysis to be presented at national cabinet says pandemic will continue to be ‘a fire fought on multiple fronts’

www.theguardian.com

New modelling by the Doherty Institute being presented to national cabinet warns that maintaining “medium” public health and social measures would be “prudent” until Australia reaches 80% vaccination if caseloads are high – with “medium” measures previously defined as including stay-at-home orders except for work, study and other essential purposes.

It’s The Guardian.
Hopefully the actual updated modeling gets released so we can read it with our own interpretation.

 

[Seat0B]

The fact that every single State/Territory Government has to conduct their own separate trial of an identical system is appalling.

It is appalling, but it is now 100% standard that there is no national approach. There is no Australia any more.

 

[Seat0B]

For those of us who have missed out on once in a lifetime moments overseas the international border closures are one of the biggest policy failures of the pandemic and to not have a home quarantine system up and running by now is pathetic.

I would have put up a bond, done longer than 14 days home quarantine even if testing negative, put up with other onerous restrictions to go last year, but the government wouldn't consider any of those things. This has caused great emotional hurt and pain to many both those stuck here and those stuck abroad.

With the case numbers in VIC and NSW there's no reason they shouldn't be doing home quarantine at scale now. International arrivals of fully vaccinated travellers who test negative prior to departure clearly don't pose a significant health risk when you are having several hundred cases per day of community transmission.

The government shouldn't be solely focused on making things as easy as possible for the hospitals. It should have been balanced against the needs of the rest of society with a reasonable compromise.

@mviy for PM !!!!!!

I am finding a much better choice of candidates here on AFF than I ever see on my ballot paper!

 

[hb13]

I've been as critical of the government as anyone here, and I'm still angry and pretty bitter that as of now I can't come home, however, 7 days of quarantine at home is something I'm more than happy to do if I can see my family. I would make it a 2-3 week holiday and possibly have to do a week of unpaid leave - but I'll take it in a second.

I just hope this 7-day quarantine gets revised down quickly to less for those fully jabbed and is applicable to people coming from anywhere in the world apart from maybe a few really badly affected spots. I think a 5-day option with 2 PCR tests is sufficient - especially for fully vaccinated people.

We really need to be able to travel from Europe/Middle East and need to quarantine only for a few days.

 

[Pushka]

Saw an interview just now about people who had taken part in the first trial in SA. Three I think pulled out because they found the multiple face check in too onerous. A couple because of internet issues. Reckon I can handle that.

 

[levelnine]

This kind of thinking that governments should be able to predict the future is just laughable.

We were still talking about building quarantine facilities a few months ago. Some states still are.

I want borders to open as well, I'm desperate to go overseas - but I'm also living in full lockdown, I don't expect to go from not being able to shop in my next LGA or drink at my pub around the corner to visiting friends in the UK in the space of a week.

I for one are happy that we've landed with some sanity - I never would have dreamed we'd be talking about overseas travel in 2021. The future did not look bright six months ago. You want to criticise NSW fine, has any other state guaranteed they are opening for international travel at 80% yet?

What is laughable is that you have such low standards of government. This was entirely foreseeable once hotel quarantine was started in March 2020. The Victorian Government Hotel Quarantine Inquiry said we had to prepare for home quarantine in November 2020.

We are not talking about you going to visit friends in the UK for a holiday. We are talking about getting home Australian citizens to visit dying relatives. We are talking about getting home Australian citizens who are being forced to illegally reside in another country because their visa has expired. We are talking about getting home Australian citizens who are homeless because their flight back to Australia was cancelled after they sold their house.

There is literally one seat for sale from London into Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth) between now and the end of October.



I am criticising all governments. They have acted appallingly.

Personally, I completely disagree, but that is the joy of living in a relatively free society. My view is that thinking about trials, and apps when much more urgent issues were being confronted is to distort priorities. I have seen a number of leading medicos and researchers in the last few weeks talking about vaccines for children who have said it is so much better for AU that we can see how it is going overseas to inform our responses.

I would have said all the stuff to do with a post-vaccine, post quarantine world will have similarly benefitted from the success and failures of others. Carts and horses spring to mind when people say that 18 months ago we should have been looking past what we were facing instead of concentrating on what was right there in front of us. YMMV.

The idea that government can only do one task at a time is wild. Getting some Apple/Android developers to build an app would distract from scientific researchers developing a vaccine? LOL

 

[justinbrett]

Saw an interview just now about people who had taken part in the first trial in SA. Three I think pulled out because they found the multiple face check in too onerous. A couple because of internet issues. Reckon I can handle that.

I have heard the SA rules are over the top. Not surprised people are pulling out.

Hopefully they relax them as they get more confident.

 

[mviy]

Well if too high a rate opt out then hotel quarantine capacity will continue to be an issue.

Home quarantine needs to scale up to large numbers.

 

[OATEK]

Well if too high a rate opt out then hotel quarantine capacity will continue to be an issue.

Home quarantine needs to scale up to large numbers.

Home quarantine is already at huge numbers.

 

[hb13]

Home quarantine is already at huge numbers.

What are the numbers? And is this for domestic travel or intl travel?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It’s The Guardian.
Hopefully the actual updated modeling gets released so we can read it with our own interpretation.

This webpage contains multiple links, including the Doherty interim report to National Cabinet 17 September

https://www.pmc.gov.au/national-plan-transition-australias-national-covid-response

 

[dajop]

What are the numbers? And is this for domestic travel or intl travel?

Nothing to do with travel. In Victoria at least home quarantine is for those who have attended Tier 1 exposure sites, or have tested positive for Covid. Some go into other facilities if they can’t quarantine at home. I assume the protocols are similar in NSW. The numbers are well into the tens of thousands.

For some reason we can’t trust international arrivals though to do the same.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

This webpage contains multiple links, including the Doherty interim report to National Cabinet 17 September

https://www.pmc.gov.au/national-plan-transition-australias-national-covid-response

Seems massive leaps between medium and low public health social measures. both in impact and in freedoms.

 

[ayushamity]

Details about 80% vaccination Covid roadmap are revealed in NSW

NSW to phase out quarantine all together next year

Mr Perrottet said hotel quarantine will be replaced by home isolation this year and then removed altogether for the fully vaccinated next year.

'My expectation is that we will get through this trial and if it's successful we will shift from hotel quarantine to home quarantine and the next step after that is just logical,' he said.

If somebody is fully vaccinated, coming from overseas, they shouldn't be treated any differently from people who are vaccinated who are living here. As we rejoin the world, it will make no sense for people [to quarantine].

'And Australians as well, if we're going to be travelling overseas we don't want to do seven days or 14 days quarantine either. That's just not going to work.

 

[andye]

Australian-made vaccines will be accepted in UK-no quarantine and a Day 2 lateral flow test (assuming we stay Green)

New travel rules published - what has changed?

The Government has published its travel review. The Amber List is scrapped, Fit To Fly and PCR tests are scrapped for the vaccinated and the Red List is reduced by eight.

www.headforpoints.com

 

[sydneyboi]

Australian-made vaccines will be accepted in UK-no quarantine and a Day 2 lateral flow test (assuming we stay Green)

New travel rules published - what has changed?

The Government has published its travel review. The Amber List is scrapped, Fit To Fly and PCR tests are scrapped for the vaccinated and the Red List is reduced by eight.

www.headforpoints.com

This is very good news indeed, the thought of having to get a PCR test in Europe before heading in and out of London seemed all too hard....

 

[hb13]

Details about 80% vaccination Covid roadmap are revealed in NSW

NSW to phase out quarantine all together next year

Mr Perrottet said hotel quarantine will be replaced by home isolation this year and then removed altogether for the fully vaccinated next year.

'My expectation is that we will get through this trial and if it's successful we will shift from hotel quarantine to home quarantine and the next step after that is just logical,' he said.

If somebody is fully vaccinated, coming from overseas, they shouldn't be treated any differently from people who are vaccinated who are living here. As we rejoin the world, it will make no sense for people [to quarantine].

'And Australians as well, if we're going to be travelling overseas we don't want to do seven days or 14 days quarantine either. That's just not going to work.

I see no reason why this doesn't begin in Jan or Feb 2022. If NSW hits 80% in late October - they can begin taking in overseas arrivals in home quarantine from November and that gives them two months to assess how many fully jabbed arrivals test positive - but if you hit 80 or 85% fully jabbed - then what are you waiting for?

 

[Telemachus]

Australian-made vaccines will be accepted in UK-no quarantine and a Day 2 lateral flow test (assuming we stay Green)

New travel rules published - what has changed?

The Government has published its travel review. The Amber List is scrapped, Fit To Fly and PCR tests are scrapped for the vaccinated and the Red List is reduced by eight.

www.headforpoints.com

This is excellent news. The two most significant changes will work in combination from the point of view of a prospective fully vaccinated Australian traveller:

• Extension of UK recognition of foreign vaccination programmes, including Australia & NZ. So no quarantine required on arrival, hotel or home, from 4 Oct;
• Fusion of Amber & Green categories. So we can now fly through transit hubs currently classed as Amber, viz AUH, DXB, DOH, without the current risk of being directed into home quarantine on UK arrival. Now these will all be ‘Rest of World’ (i.e. not Red) and thus in the same category as SIN & HKG. That should also provide more of a level playing field for Australian travellers and for the international carriers looking at scheduling additional services to/from Australia after the end of the outbound ban.

Those of us with UK-bound travel plans can now remove a major outstanding issue from our still quite long list of risks. For people travelling to the UK in the next month or so before the Australian govt’s international vax certificate is available, one hopes the existing domestic certificate will suffice as proof for UK immigration – thinking of you louie-m.

The changes to the testing regime are welcome too. This is the aspect that will attract most attention in the UK since it will allow Brits to exercise their constitutional right to take a cheap Spanish holiday at October half-term and to remedy an appalling injustice where the PCR tests have been costing more than the flight. It’s a different world over there.

Edit: I just checked the full official version of HMG's 4 Oct changes. The criteria for validating a foreign vaccination certificate suggest to me that the existing Australian ‘domestic’ MyGov/Medicare certificate that we all have will qualify. See here.