Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Telemachus]

Yes I am worried about this for Seat Son, who had Indian made AZ in Dubai, where he lives. I would want him to be recognised as vaccinated and not have to do Hotel Quarantine when next he can come home.

Oh yes, I see that Catch 22 is alive and well. If it didn't affect me personally, it would be hilarious.

Seat Son's planned August/September visit, that was cancelled due to cap reduction, was in part to address an issue like that. He had to attend a bank in person to be identified, despite already being a client of that bank, who had previously been identified! Plus he wanted to renew his Australian driving licence, but again had to do that in person because he had previously taken the "not in person" renewal option.

I suppose when Services Australia created that process no priority was given to getting foreign immunisation recognised prior to a person’s return to Australia because vaccination conferred no advantage in terms of mandatory quarantine; and that is still the case today.

We must hope that urgency is being given now to Australian recognition of foreign vaccination so that (say) a UK or EU digital certificate can be loaded into the new VDS-NC app prior to travel, or less directly the foreign vaccination can be entered in the AIR from overseas and an Australian certificate is then available prior to return here.

Naturally there has been much discussion of home quarantine logistics but I think the problem of sorting arrivals into vaccinated (home quarantine) and unvaccinated (hotel quarantine) is just as much a potential show-stopper. Recognition of foreign vaccination is also logically going to be a factor in Australia’s selection of exactly which countries to designate as ‘safe’ enough for arrivals from them to qualify for home quarantine if vaccinated.

Perhaps inbound travel could start without a full technology-enabled solution but that will mean the onus will be on airlines to do initial authentication of hard copy documents pre-departure, followed by time-consuming processing on arrival at an Australian airport.

Overseas practice must have some pointers. I’m unclear how the UK, for instance, is going to handle the same issue from 4 Oct when their recognition of foreign vaccination expands significantly from UK/EU/US only – to include acceptance of Australian & NZ certificates among many others.

There will be a solution and I know there is no mileage in pursuing this sort of thing but if only the communication about essential enablers for international travel wasn't so woeful....

 

[justinbrett]

It will also be limited to countries issuing "approved vaccines". I note that QF hasnt loaded any flights from SCL and Chile is using Chinese vaccines. Will they ever be recognized?

I made a thread about this in the Qantas forum. Lack of widebodies is the other reason for lack of SCL flights (they don't even have enough for BNE-LAX so they are using A330).

Future of QF27/28 travel post covid

So as we start to look at overseas travel again, options between Australia and South America are barely existent compared to where we left off before covid. -Qantas SCL-SYD direct (QF27/28) not scheduled -LATAM no longer in oneworld -LATAM SCL-MEL direct not scheduled -LATAM SCL-SYD still via...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[mviy]

Even if only vaccinations on the AIR are accepted at first for home quarantine that's a big improvement over having no home quarantine at all.

They had to start somewhere with the app with basic functionality. If the app is written well then they should be able to easily extend it to allow certificates from select other countries as well.

Considering the travel ban may remain in place for some weeks or months yet they have a little time to make improvements before restrictions ease.

 

[ayushamity]

I was looking at flight bookings into Sydney and so depressing....hardly anything in November.

I hope it changes after this 'big imminent announcement' from Scomo we keep on getting fed.

At that stage, it looks like its T-90 days instead of T-60 days. depressing

Today has been a pretty bad day mentally for me knowing that end of November flight could be unlikely.

 

[roogirl]

Lots of people don’t want to get back.

I suppose when Services Australia created that process no priority was given to getting foreign immunisation recognised prior to a person’s return to Australia because vaccination conferred no advantage in terms of mandatory quarantine; and that is still the case today.

We must hope that urgency is being given now to Australian recognition of foreign vaccination so that (say) a UK or EU digital certificate can be loaded into the new VDS-NC app prior to travel, or less directly the foreign vaccination can be entered in the AIR from overseas and an Australian certificate is then available prior to return here.

Naturally there has been much discussion of home quarantine logistics but I think the problem of sorting arrivals into vaccinated (home quarantine) and unvaccinated (hotel quarantine) is just as much a potential show-stopper. Recognition of foreign vaccination is also logically going to be a factor in Australia’s selection of exactly which countries to designate as ‘safe’ enough for arrivals from them to qualify for home quarantine if vaccinated.

Perhaps inbound travel could start without a full technology-enabled solution but that will mean the onus will be on airlines to do initial authentication of hard copy documents pre-departure, followed by time-consuming processing on arrival at an Australian airport.

Overseas practice must have some pointers. I’m unclear how the UK, for instance, is going to handle the same issue from 4 Oct when their recognition of foreign vaccination expands significantly from UK/EU/US only – to include acceptance of Australian & NZ certificates among many others.

There will be a solution and I know there is no mileage in pursuing this sort of thing but if only the communication about essential enablers for international travel wasn't so woeful....

the U.K. isn’t using a tech solution though. You show your covid pass to the border force, I don’t think they verify it against an electronic register (at least no one ever has for me). And Americans just have hard copy cards.

At the end of the day the northern hemisphere has been much less worried about people faking tests, status etc than australia will inevitably be. There will be OUTRAGE if vaccinated foreign resident citizens are funnelled into hotel Q though, so would be amazed if they tried to pull that one.

 

[oznflfan]

2 days (or awaiting test results) might work out fine for some.

7 days not so much, except backpackers here for a year.

And add to that having to potentially quarantine for another 14 days when they move to another state!

 

[hb13]

2 days (or awaiting test results) might work out fine for some.

7 days not so much, except backpackers here for a year.

Well is it two days, three days or waiting test results? They're all different. For example, in the UK, we initially had a test-to-release-early scheme which was said to be 5 days, but in actual fact it was more like 7 or 8 days.

The reason for this is the day you arrive was "Day 0", which meant Day 5 was actually 6 days. Secondly, you would test on Day 6, then you're free to go only after your result, which at a minimum was 24 hours, therefore, it was 7 or 8 days.

In Singapore, my understanding is you do a test on arrival and are "released" as soon as the result is in 12 - 36 hours later - I think this may be ok for some (very small amount) tourists. But definitely not ok for the majority of tourists because of the risks of testing positive. Especially when plenty of other countries (look at Europe) don't even require a test if you're fully jabbed.

If there are any quarantine requirements, Australia isn't getting tourists unless people really need to go and are planning to stay 3 - 4 weeks.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just a question: why is there such a pushback against an apparent need for some level of quarantine? Its already clear there will be more restrictions and limitations the list is growing - pre-flight test (test positive and you are put on the next flight after being cleared of covid or you have to cancel), arrival test (test positive and you might be put into more closely monitored isolation), vaccination status, etc.

 

[mviy]

Just a question: why is there such a pushback against an apparent need for some level of quarantine? Its already clear there will be more restrictions and limitations the list is growing - pre-flight test (test positive and you are put on the next flight after being cleared of covid or you have to cancel), arrival test (test positive and you might be put into more closely monitored isolation), vaccination status, etc.

It's not needed in much of the rest of the world. To truly scale up travel to close to pre-pandemic levels we need to get back to as close as possible to pre-covid conditions. If you're a tourist that gets two weeks holidays a year, a week in quarantine is half your total leave for the year. You'll go somewhere else that's being reasonable.

We need to start treating COVID pretty similarly to how we treat the flu, which means encouraging everyone to get vaccinated but ultimately letting people take responsibility for their own actions and choose how to look after their own health and that of the community for themselves.

I'm fully vaccinated (well only a few days since the second jab). If I come into contact with an international arrival that's infected, hopefully the vaccine will stop me from getting seriously ill. Practically everyone 18+ has had about 3 months at least to get vaccinated, more than enough time to take two AZ or certainly have at least one dose. Come Christmas you're looking at practically everyone 18+ having had close to half a year to get vaccinated. If people won't protect themselves they should be allowed to face the consequences. If not then, when will we let international travel go back to close to pre-covid normal?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It's not needed in much of the rest of the world. To truly scale up travel to close to pre-pandemic levels we need to get back to as close as possible to pre-covid conditions. If you're a tourist that gets two weeks holidays a year, a week in quarantine is half your total leave for the year. You'll go somewhere else that's being reasonable.

We need to start treating COVID pretty similarly to how we treat the flu, which means encouraging everyone to get vaccinated but ultimately letting people take responsibility for their own actions and choose how to look after their own health and that of the community for themselves.

I'm fully vaccinated (well only a few days since the second jab). If I come into contact with an international arrival that's infected, hopefully the vaccine will stop me from getting seriously ill. Practically everyone 18+ has had about 3 months at least to get vaccinated, more than enough time to take two AZ or certainly have at least one dose. Come Christmas you're looking at practically everyone 18+ having had close to half a year to get vaccinated. If people won't protect themselves they should be allowed to face the consequences. If not then, when will we let international travel go back to close to pre-covid normal?

Maybe some sort of home Q is a way to discourage tourists? Do we really want a tourist with a new variant coming in, staying in hotels, eating out at restaurants and starting a super-spreading event of the new variant? Or alternatively, if a new variant emerges overseas that is more infectious and more harmful do we close the borders to those who can't home Q? The latter isn't a great encouragement for tourism either. I think the strategic question is what is the tourism market for Australia actually going to be in the new covid world?

 

[hb13]

Maybe some sort of home Q is a way to discourage tourists? Do we really want a tourist with a new variant coming in, staying in hotels, eating out at restaurants and starting a super-spreading event of the new variant? Or alternatively, if a new variant emerges overseas that is more infectious and more harmful do we close the borders to those who can't home Q? The latter isn't a great encouragement for tourism either. I think the strategic question is what is the tourism market for Australia actually going to be in the new covid world?

Covid isn't going anywhere. The danger of a new variant will be here for the foreseeable future.

By your logic, we should shut the country down forever. It seems like you're saying the best path is to never open up to tourists, sporting events (i.e. players/athletes coming without quarantine) and businesspeople needing to travel to Oz for 2 - 3 days only - is that what you are saying?

 

[Kimpos]

Maybe some sort of home Q is a way to discourage tourists? Do we really want a tourist with a new variant coming in, staying in hotels, eating out at restaurants and starting a super-spreading event of the new variant? Or alternatively, if a new variant emerges overseas that is more infectious and more harmful do we close the borders to those who can't home Q? The latter isn't a great encouragement for tourism either. I think the strategic question is what is the tourism market for Australia actually going to be in the new covid world?

You could have a new variant arise from the current virus floating around domestically.
Your views only reinforce what many Americans I know currently think about a trip "downunder"- it was high on their bucket list, now they are horrified at how Australia has reacted to covid and are less interested in making the trip

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Just a question: why is there such a pushback against an apparent need for some level of quarantine? Its already clear there will be more restrictions and limitations the list is growing - pre-flight test (test positive and you are put on the next flight after being cleared of covid or you have to cancel), arrival test (test positive and you might be put into more closely monitored isolation), vaccination status, etc.

As I said earlier:

a flight from Singapore with little covid into SYD would send someone to home for 7 days where a flight from MEL to SYD with arguably more covid in MEL than SIN would be out and partying that night?


Just dont see the logic.

 

[antycbr]

You could have a new variant arise from the current virus floating around domestically.
Your views only reinforce what many Americans I know currently think about a trip "downunder"- it was high on their bucket list, now they are horrified at how Australia has reacted to covid and are less interested in making the trip

Plus anyone with a dual passport will sell up and move out if this continues much longer.

Two mates looking at doing that right now.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Plus anyone with a dual passport will sell up and move out if this continues much longer.

Two mates looking at doing that right now.

I know of people actively exploring this as well.

 

[oznflfan]

Maybe some sort of home Q is a way to discourage tourists? Do we really want a tourist with a new variant coming in, staying in hotels, eating out at restaurants and starting a super-spreading event of the new variant? Or alternatively, if a new variant emerges overseas that is more infectious and more harmful do we close the borders to those who can't home Q? The latter isn't a great encouragement for tourism either. I think the strategic question is what is the tourism market for Australia actually going to be in the new covid world?

Hell yes we do

 

[MEL_Traveller]

As I said earlier:

a flight from Singapore with little covid into SYD would send someone to home for 7 days where a flight from MEL to SYD with arguably more covid in MEL than SIN would be out and partying that night?


Just dont see the logic.

... a flight from SIN with a new covid variant compared to a flight MEL-SYD with a known variant?

If it was a bubble with Singapore and only carried pax originating in Singapore who had been there the last 7/14 days, probably no reason to quarantine.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It's not needed in much of the rest of the world. To truly scale up travel to close to pre-pandemic levels we need to get back to as close as possible to pre-covid conditions. If you're a tourist that gets two weeks holidays a year, a week in quarantine is half your total leave for the year. You'll go somewhere else that's being reasonable.

We need to start treating COVID pretty similarly to how we treat the flu, which means encouraging everyone to get vaccinated but ultimately letting people take responsibility for their own actions and choose how to look after their own health and that of the community for themselves.

I'm fully vaccinated (well only a few days since the second jab). If I come into contact with an international arrival that's infected, hopefully the vaccine will stop me from getting seriously ill. Practically everyone 18+ has had about 3 months at least to get vaccinated, more than enough time to take two AZ or certainly have at least one dose. Come Christmas you're looking at practically everyone 18+ having had close to half a year to get vaccinated. If people won't protect themselves they should be allowed to face the consequences. If not then, when will we let international travel go back to close to pre-covid normal?

Thanks. Interesting that many seem to be in a rush.

A lot of other countries did some level of quarantine (many on a voluntary basis) and a lot of those countries had a certain level of pre-existing antibodies (from recent infections). And over a short period of time their systems have evolved to no quarantine for say amber countries and banning red countries. Some countries have reverted from green flights to some quarantine.

But I guess people don't want Australia finds a way (which may be differentiated) that suits Sydney, Melbourne, regional NSW, regional Vic, South Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory and ACT (leaving out Qld and WA for the moment) where their government are willing to open but more on their terms with their known risk with hospitals capacity risks etc.

 

[N860CR]

... a flight from SIN with a new covid variant compared to a flight MEL-SYD with a known variant?

If it was a bubble with Singapore and only carried pax originating in Singapore who had been there the last 7/14 days, probably no reason to quarantine.

So just to be 100% clear, you are of the opinion that Australia should stay closed to arrivals without quarantine for eternity?

This is despite having a likely vaccination rate of 90%+ for over 12s by the end of this year. The virus itself, without a vaccine, has a realistic mortality rate of below 1%. With vaccines, and regardless of “variant”, the mortality rate is negligible. But closed forever, that’s the plan?

Maybe see if you can have your username changed to MEL_

 

[N860CR]

Thanks. Interesting that many seem to be in a rush.

A lot of other countries did some level of quarantine (many on a voluntary basis) and a lot of those countries had a certain level of pre-existing antibodies (from recent infections). And over a short period of time their systems have evolved to no quarantine for say amber countries and banning red countries. Some countries have reverted from green flights to some quarantine.

But I guess people don't want Australia finds a way (which may be differentiated) that suits Sydney, Melbourne, regional NSW, regional Vic, South Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory and ACT (leaving out Qld and WA for the moment) where their government are willing to open but more on their terms with their known risk with hospitals capacity risks etc.

Just because there’s no rush for you doesn’t mean the same applies to others.

Come the end of the year, we’ll have amongst the highest vaccination rate in the world. Explain what benefit a further delay would cause?

In 2 weeks, NSW will be seeing thousands and thousands of positive test results a day. A few overseas arrivals would mean very little.