Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Must...Fly!]

... a flight from SIN with a new covid variant compared to a flight MEL-SYD with a known variant?

If it was a bubble with Singapore and only carried pax originating in Singapore who had been there the last 7/14 days, probably no reason to quarantine.

But surely that assumes no new variant can evolve and emerge in this country (hint: it most certainly can)

 

[mviy]

Quarantine is better than no travel, but we're not going to go back to anything like the way things were pre-COVID as long as it hangs around.

I'd be prepared to do quarantine to travel, but would I prefer no quarantine for fully vaccinated people that test negative, absolutely.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So just to be 100% clear, you are of the opinion that Australia should stay closed to arrivals without quarantine for eternity?

This is despite having a likely vaccination rate of 90%+ for over 12s by the end of this year. The virus itself, without a vaccine, has a realistic mortality rate of below 1%. With vaccines, and regardless of “variant”, the mortality rate is negligible. But closed forever, that’s the plan?

Maybe see if you can have your username changed to MEL_

If the health advice says we need to spend a couple days in home Q I don't see the problem.

Tourists aren't high on my agenda at the moment - not least because I don't even know what the tourist market will be once we are in covid 'normal'. But for Aussies wanting to travel, and for those wanting to come home what's the issue of a couple days home Q if it brings benefits?

This is not about mortality. It's about controlling the spread and making sure our hospitals aren't overwhelmed. (Which they already are.)

Most countries are only just starting to open up. Home Q seems reasonable as a small hurdle to allow Aussies out and back.

 

[N860CR]

But for Aussies wanting to travel, and for those wanting to come home what's the issue of a couple days home Q if it brings benefits?

This is not about mortality. It's about controlling the spread and making sure our hospitals aren't overwhelmed. (Which they already are.)

And what benefits would they be?

No, our hospitals are not overwhelmed. We really need to stop the spread of this medical misinformation.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Quarantine is better than no travel, but we're not going to go back to anything like the way things were pre-COVID as long as it hangs around.

I'd be prepared to do quarantine to travel, but would I prefer no quarantine for fully vaccinated people that test negative, absolutely.

I appreciate your point but I also understand the concerns / apprehension Australian governments have.

From the States/Territories that are willing to open up, they are trying to, amongst other things:
- factor the percentage of vaccinated travellers can carry and transmit the virus - is it 10%, 20%?
- manage allowing Delta (which has an estimated uncontrolled reproductive rate of 5-8) in from NSW, Victoria, ACT and overseas
- need to see how "targeted lockdowns" would work in practice in the current environment of lower levels of compliance with public health orders to dampen the reproductive rate
- take into account that say 10% choosing to be unvaccinated will not be refused medical/hospital treatment and its likely impact on required levels ICU treatment.

So a small Territory like NT would have only say 20 ICU beds to manage 20k unvaccinated 12+ population and to keep the infections in this unvaccinated cohort say below 1000 active cases so that the 20 ICU beds don't get overwhelmed. What targeted lockdowns would work to keep unvaccinated positives low? For example, locking out unvaccinated when there is an outbreak.

I'm guessing Tasmania (may be SA to a lesser extent) is also going through its thinking on these issues going from covid zero to allowing cases in.

I think its a process the small covid zero jurisdictions need to go through - even if at a minimum to see what works, but places like Sydney and Melbourne, its less of an issue. That process takes time as it did in other overseas jurisdictions. I do hope it doesn't take more than say less than 3 months to work through to reach a point of say no quarantine for vaccinated international/interstate arrivals.

 

[N860CR]

I appreciate your point but I also understand the concerns / apprehension Australian governments have.

From the States/Territories that are willing to open up, they are trying to, amongst other things:
- factor the percentage of vaccinated travellers can carry and transmit the virus - is it 10%, 20%?
- manage allowing Delta (which has an estimated uncontrolled reproductive rate of 5-8) in from NSW, Victoria, ACT and overseas
- need to see how "targeted lockdowns" would work in practice in the current environment of lower levels of compliance with public health orders to dampen the reproductive rate
- take into account that say 10% choosing to be unvaccinated will not be refused medical/hospital treatment and its likely impact on required levels ICU treatment.

So a small Territory like NT would have only say 20 ICU beds to manage 20k unvaccinated 12+ population and to keep the infections in this unvaccinated cohort say below 1000 active cases so that the 20 ICU beds don't get overwhelmed. What targeted lockdowns would work to keep unvaccinated positives low? For example, locking out unvaccinated when there is an outbreak.

I'm guessing Tasmania (may be SA to a lesser extent) is also going through its thinking on these issues going from covid zero to allowing cases in.

I think its a process the small covid zero jurisdictions need to go through - even if at a minimum to see what works, but places like Sydney and Melbourne, its less of an issue. That process takes time as it did in other overseas jurisdictions. I do hope it doesn't take more than say less than 3 months to work through to reach a point of say no quarantine for vaccinated international/interstate arrivals.

All valid questions. But it doesn’t address the root issue. With thousands and thousands of daily positive test results within Australia, what would the difference be if somebody arrived in the country from overseas with a positive test result?

Why is it ok to pass it around at David Jones Market St, yet not on Rodeo Drive?

It’s purely an issue of conditioning. The last 18 months has told the great uneducated that overseas = bad. It’s time for that mentality to change. I do respect that it will take some people a lot longer to do that.

 

[Batterytraveller]

It’s purely an issue of conditioning. The last 18 months has told the great uneducated that overseas = bad. It’s time for that mentality to change. I do respect that it will take some people a lot longer to do that.

This may be true but there’s the small matter of an election to get through. An election that has to be won in WA and QLD. I can’t believe there won’t be some restrictions on travel, we to appease exactly the mentality you describe.

Also never underestimate the capability of this mob to be massively discriminatory, even racist. We saw this with the bans and threats of fines for citizens attempting to come home from India, back when the delta variant was the Indian variant. We’re seeing it already, with noises that only the ‘good’ (western) vaccines will be accepted and not the ‘bad’ (Chinese and russian) vaccines. Tourism aside, it’s going to make it very hard for students, workers and business people from many places, if we persist in choosing which WHO approved vaccines are ‘acceptable’.

I’m assuming there will be some form of inbound quarantine, not necessarily for everyone till at least the middle of next year.

 

[OATEK]

If the health advice says we need to spend a couple days in home Q I don't see the problem.

Tourists aren't high on my agenda at the moment - not least because I don't even know what the tourist market will be once we are in covid 'normal'. But for Aussies wanting to travel, and for those wanting to come home what's the issue of a couple days home Q if it brings benefits?

This is not about mortality. It's about controlling the spread and making sure our hospitals aren't overwhelmed. (Which they already are.)

Most countries are only just starting to open up. Home Q seems reasonable as a small hurdle to allow Aussies out and back.

You don't seem to consider the impact on Australians who work, and are invested in, the tourism industry. They are on their knees despite what AP says, and not just in QLD.

When the UK said test on arrival and isolate until negative result received, I was ready to go. Anything more than that will impoverish tourism, and lead to the sights we saw in Spain, Portugal and Greece after the GFC with half-finished or abandoned tourist facilities dotted all around.

 

[drron]

... a flight from SIN with a new covid variant compared to a flight MEL-SYD with a known variant?

If it was a bubble with Singapore and only carried pax originating in Singapore who had been there the last 7/14 days, probably no reason to quarantine.

Sorry but a new variant can occur anywhere in the world that is having covid cases.There is a possibility the next variant could arise in Sydney or Melbourne.It is a very low risk but so are your scenarios.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Sorry but a new variant can occur anywhere in the world that is having covid cases.There is a possibility the next variant could arise in Sydney or Melbourne.It is a very low risk but so are your scenarios.

That's a possibility. But if one does develop overseas, why would we not have the infrastructure in place for home Q if it is needed? 'Test on arrival and isolate until negative result' is still a form of quarantine. It's still a mechanism to control spread, if needed. People wanted home Q. We get home Q and before it's even been rolled out people want to scrap that too?

You don't seem to consider the impact on Australians who work, and are invested in, the tourism industry. They are on their knees despite what AP says, and not just in QLD.

When the UK said test on arrival and isolate until negative result received, I was ready to go. Anything more than that will impoverish tourism, and lead to the sights we saw in Spain, Portugal and Greece after the GFC with half-finished or abandoned tourist facilities dotted all around.

Just because we open with no quarantine doesn't mean the tourist market will be back. I think it's an issue outside of covid and scrapping of any form of quarantine probably won't fix it or make a difference

 

[drron]

That's a possibility. But if one does develop overseas, why would we not have the infrastructure in place for home Q if it is needed? 'Test on arrival and isolate until negative result' is still a form of quarantine. It's still a mechanism to control spread, if needed. People wanted home Q. We get home Q and before it's even been rolled out people want to scrap that too?

As I have said before the next variant may be more infective but results in less severe disease so why then would you need extra quarantine.Wouldn't we be better off if it replaced delta as the predominant variant?

 

[ayushamity]

There's an interesting discussion happening that as the Reff number is dropping in NSW and cases are dropping - If by some miracle we get down to Covid 0 again in NSW, they might backflip again as they will go back to the mentality of 'do not want to let Covid in again'.

Personally, I think that it is unlikely for NSW to backflip as Gladys was on record saying back in may (when we have Covid 0) that once you reach 80% DD, we need to re engage with the rest of the world.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

New variant conversations are statistically IRRELEVANT, it has always been a weak argument and now its the only one left on the table, it should be discarded

 

[MEL_Traveller]

As I have said before the next variant may be more infective but results in less severe disease so why then would you need extra quarantine.Wouldn't we be better off if it replaced delta as the predominant variant?

And if it's not? Why not have the home Q infrastructure in place and tested? If we get a variant that is more dangerous and we don't want in the community, are we happy to say we didn't need even the simplest of risk mitigation (ie a couple of day's isolate and test at home)?

Someone suggested it didn't make sense that we would need home Q anymore. I think there at least a couple reasons why health authorities might still want to go down that path, even if short term.

 

[mviy]

There's an interesting discussion happening that as the Reff number is dropping in NSW and cases are dropping - If by some miracle we get down to Covid 0 again in NSW, they might backflip again as they will go back to the mentality of 'do not want to let Covid in again'.

Personally, I think that it is unlikely for NSW to backflip as Gladys was on record saying back in may (when we have Covid 0) that once you reach 80% DD, we need to re engage with the rest of the world.

The Feds will cut off special support pretty much completely within weeks of 80% being reached. So I think the Feds resolve would have to break to go back to COVID zero as well.

International students, business travel etc. would be beneficial for NSW standing on its own two feet again.

International travel restrictions may not ease significantly till December, but it needs to happen.

 

[drron]

And if it's not? Why not have the home Q infrastructure in place and tested? If we get a variant that is more dangerous and we don't want in the community, are we happy to say we didn't need even the simplest of risk mitigation (ie a couple of day's isolate and test at home)?

Someone suggested it didn't make sense that we would need home Q anymore. I think there at least a couple reasons why health authorities might still want to go down that path, even if short term.

Because by then even WA will have reached 80% fully vaxxed and a lot of the country will hopefully be .90% fully vaxxed.You just can't keep the country loccked down then or we will have an economic depression maybe even worse than 2008.Our currency may then be nearly worthless and most of us will not be able to travel OS again as too expensive.
Although I don't think this scenario is likely it is more likely than your scenario.Your strategy is a recipe for disaster.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Because by then even WA will have reached 80% fully vaxxed and a lot of the country will hopefully be .90% fully vaxxed.You just can't keep the country loccked down then or we will have an economic depression maybe even worse than 2008.Our currency may then be nearly worthless and most of us will not be able to travel OS again as too expensive.
Although I don't think this scenario is likely it is more likely than your scenario.Your strategy is a recipe for disaster.

Home Q with test on day two and isolate until negative is a recipe for disaster? I can see a lot of people coming home from holidays on a Friday, getting tested on the Sunday, and be at work on Monday.

It might turn out that all new variants are going to be covered by the current vaccines and boosters. But I'd prefer to err on the side of caution and have home Q set up and ready to go, and people willing to enter, so that if it is needed it can be instigated at short notice without massive travel disruption.

 

[drron]

Home Q with test on day two and isolate until negative is a recipe for disaster? I can see a lot of people coming home from holidays on a Friday, getting tested on the Sunday, and be at work on Monday.

It might turn out that all new variants are going to be covered by the current vaccines and boosters. But I'd prefer to err on the side of caution and have home Q set up and ready to go, and people willing to enter, so that if it is needed it can be instigated at short notice without massive travel disruption.

Yes to our tourist industry.See what the USA is prposing to happen in November when we probably will have higher vaccination numbers.No Quarantine.

It's A Big Day: United States Ends Travel Bans, Requires Vaccination

The United States has ended its travel bans as of November 8, 2021, replacing them with a vaccination requirement. Here are all the details.

onemileatatime.com

Most countries will be similiar.Virtually no international tourists would consider Australia.

 

[guiguioz]

Services Australia has revealed that technology to allow Australians to travel overseas with proof of vaccination will be ready within weeks.

The so-called visible digital seal (VDS) project will allow Australians to verify their vaccination status with Home Affairs, who will create a “highly authenticated” digital record for travel and for use by third parties, such as airlines and other countries.

Services Australia said at the request of an individual, the department would send a person’s vaccination status to the passport office.

“What they will then do is take that data, make sure it’s all correct, and then they will put what they call a visible digital seal onto a certificate that they will then send back to us,” the department’s Charles McHardie said.

“And that certificate will then appear straightaway in your Medicare Express Plus app, and then you can download it to your phone.”

“That can be used at, you know departure gates, etcetera, wherever it may be utilized as as the borders start to open up.”

The VDS technology is internationally recognised and was developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization.

Chief executive Rebecca Skinner said she expected the technology to be ready within three weeks.

“We are confident that the technology will all be in place within the next sort of two to three weeks, well before the end of October,” Skinner said.

“Our plan is to have all of the technology in place so that it is settled and tested situation before the policy decisions need to be made.

“We don’t want to be in a situation where policy decisions can’t be taken because the technology isn’t ready.”

 

[N860CR]

And if it's not? Why not have the home Q infrastructure in place and tested? If we get a variant that is more dangerous and we don't want in the community, are we happy to say we didn't need even the simplest of risk mitigation (ie a couple of day's isolate and test at home)?

Someone suggested it didn't make sense that we would need home Q anymore. I think there at least a couple reasons why health authorities might still want to go down that path, even if short term.

you’re still not answering the question.

What’s the plan moving forward? Do you advocate for permanent quarantine for the rest of our lives because of this fear of a “new variant”.

We have new variants of influenza enter the country every year, but we’ve certainly managed to live with that. And that’s with less effective vaccines that aren’t as widely distributed.