Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Princess Fiona]

Hopefully in a few weeks or so the evidence will indicate that the new variant isn't something to be overly concerned about, but at this point we don't know and it's understandable that many nations are taking a cautious approach to this.

Worst case is we're back to square one and the vaccine manufacturers need to quickly develop a new version of the vaccine to target the new variant, and major restrictions on international travel come back.

I think the initial response will be mandatory hotel quarantine for returning travellers from Southern Africa and a “Do not travel” for outbound.

 

[JessicaTam]

It’s happening
Changes to be announced for quarantine for South Africa arrivals

Presser at 12.30.

Pushed back to 1300.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Lunatic stuff. Remember when two years ago there's was basically nothing stopping you travelling to and from a country with identified ebola.

This will all be forgotten in a week. Sideshow

 

[N860CR]

Lunatic stuff. Remember when two years ago there's was basically nothing stopping you travelling to and from a country with identified ebola.

This will all be forgotten in a week. Sideshow

Can only hope. Sets a bad precedent for future “variants”. One sneeze and the world goes crazy. Will do nothing for travel confidence.

I do wonder how different the response would have been had this been identified in Boston rather than Botswana

 

[Must...Fly!]

Can only hope. Sets a bad precedent for future “variants”. One sneeze and the world goes crazy. Will do nothing for travel confidence.

I do wonder how different the response would have been had this been identified in Boston rather than Botswana

Travel confidence? Try economic. Look at the markets. Probably the only thing that will convince governments to be sensible

 

[N860CR]

Travel confidence? Try economic. Look at the markets. Probably the only thing that will convince governments to be sensible

Can only hope. Most countries oddly seem happy to throw themselves into massive debt at the moment.

 

[jase05]

Wasn’t aware that there was any flights from Southern Africa arriving here currently

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464418889329090561

 

[Pushka]

Wasn’t aware that there was any flights from Southern Africa arriving here currently

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464418889329090561

Lots of indirect arrivals through Doha I'd suggest.

 

[N860CR]

Wasn’t aware that there was any flights from Southern Africa arriving here currently

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464418889329090561

There aren’t. Other than the occasional qantas repat.

Good to see ABC has dragged Mary-Louise McLockdown out again who’s basically said it’s found across the world and restricting travel from Southern Africa isn’t enough

Seriously, when does this end!

 

[jrfsp]

It does feel a bit like March 2020 watching this unfold

 

[NM]

Lots of indirect arrivals through Doha I'd suggest.

And Singapore, no doubt.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I don't have a problem with measures to restrict the entry of a new variant that sounds particularly bad.

I just wonder why measures are not stronger, and took so long?

So what if in two weeks they discover it's not so bad, and the current vaccines work. Not much lost. But if it is of concern, a potential gain by taking action early.

 

[DC3]

It’s happening
Changes to be announced for quarantine for South Africa arrivals

Presser at 12.30.

Another announcement?

 

[N860CR]

I don't have a problem with measures to restrict the entry of a new variant that sounds particularly bad.

I just wonder why measures are not stronger, and took so long?

So what if in two weeks they discover it's not so bad, and the current vaccines work. Not much lost. But if it is of concern, a potential gain by taking action early.

So this is the plan forever now? Mass panic when there’s a new “variant”. Certainly doesn’t sound “particularly bad”. Thus far, no “variant” has been anymore severe (and it couldn’t get much less severe if it tried).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So this is the plan forever now? Mass panic when there’s a new “variant”. Certainly doesn’t sound “particularly bad”. Thus far, no “variant” has been anymore severe (and it couldn’t get much less severe if it tried).

From what I've read this variant seems to have mutated far more than others. And we can't let outcome bias cloud decisions. 'Just because' previous variants haven't proved overly dangerous doesn't mean this one won't be.

 

[N860CR]

From what I've read this variant seems to have mutated far more than others. And we can't let outcome bias cloud decisions. 'Just because' previous variants haven't proved overly dangerous doesn't mean this one won't be.

Based on how mild the virus is overall, it’s highly unlikely that there will be any significant increase in severity.

We did.not have these measures for Ebola or African Swine Flu. Your position is that this “variant” is worse than those?

Roughly 6% of the African continent is vaccinated. South Africa had all but eradicated the delta variant. There are not corpses piling up in the street.

 

[jase05]

Based on how mild the virus is overall, it’s highly unlikely that there will be any significant increase in severity.

We did.not have these measures for Ebola or African Swine Flu. Your position is that this “variant” is worse than those?

Roughly 6% of the African continent is vaccinated. South Africa had all but eradicated the delta variant. There are not corpses piling up in the street.

Albanese is calling for immediate border closures to the 9 African countries which is even harsher than what Morrison has currently in place.
I think we will see many nations jump and react quickly to new strains for some time be that rightly or wrongly

 

[N860CR]

Albanese is calling for immediate border closures to the 9 African countries which is even harsher than what Morrison has currently in place.
I think we will see many nations jump and react quickly to new strains for some time be that rightly or wrongly

Not surprising to be honest. Plays to his audience. I believe he was adamantly opposed to the Indian closure? Politics is predictable

No doubt we’ll see this panic (wrongly) for quite a while. The question is how long can we sustain it.

 

[drron]

From what I've read this variant seems to have mutated far more than others. And we can't let outcome bias cloud decisions. 'Just because' previous variants haven't proved overly dangerous doesn't mean this one won't be.

And just because there are more mutations it doesn't mean it is more dangerous or infective. Mutations can have negative effects on the virus. It will take a while to see what happens out in the real world.

 

[Pushka]

Until they know more about the seriousness of the variant, the demographics of the population experiencing severity and effectiveness of vaccines, a ban on flights where it's running is a good thing.