Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[justinbrett]

bruised egos

Fixed grammar in original post.

You missed one.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

The interview with the chairwoman can be seen here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-59426277?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=61a10144531c2c473335f176%26Watch%3A%20SA%20medical%20chief%20criticises%20%27storm%20in%20a%20tea%20cup%27%262021-11-26T15%3A52%3A12.099Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:1f514127-0993-453d-849a-2ba6d6e6e907&pinned_post_asset_id=61a10144531c2c473335f176&pinned_post_type=share

 

[N860CR]

“The two positive cases, who were asymptomatic, are in isolation in the Special Health Accommodation. Both people are fully vaccinated.”

And that says it all. They’re not “cases”, they’re “positive test results”. And the vaccine is doing it’s job.

Move on, nothing to see here.

As I said earlier, has this been identified in Boston and not Botswana, this would be a non-event.

 

[mviy]

FFS:

Victoria mulls extending quarantine for all international travellers as first Omicron cases emerge

A 72-hour quarantine period for all arrivals could be extended as soon as Monday to guard against the new variant, with a return to 14 days’ quarantine on the table.

www.theage.com.au

If they do that QF may well cancel flights. I am prepared to do 2 weeks quarantine at home on return, but many wouldn't be.

I just hope my flight this week goes ahead as scheduled to leave the country. I can deal with any issues that arise for coming home.

 

[Quickstatus]

And that says it all

Just because there are , what, 32 mutations? does not maketh the virus. Generally the more mutations the more "damaged" the virus. So instead of becoming more virulent it could be less.

International travel?. Too many trigger happy politicians shutting down borders at the slightest sneeze. I'll keep the Aussie dollar in town.

 

[jakeseven7]

I know of a few people who have caught Covid and the general story from everyone I have heard from is it takes months to get over even once no longer infectious.

I ma not interested in going OS until it is a little more stable with all the covid stuff and don't want to spend 2 weeks in ISO after or half way thru a trip... Bit of a budget/time killer

I personally know about 15 colleagues (in Aus) and 4 family members in UK who have had it.

All were vaccinated with either AZ or Pfizer and all were fine and still are fine.

(All were in good health and fitness / no underlyings. If you are overweight and unhealthy or have underlyings you are probably going to have a rougher ride of course)

 

[mviy]

A less virulent, but extremely contagious strain is what brought the Spanish flu pandemic to an end.

Vaccination isn't enough to get herd immunity, but it sure does help.

If Omicron is less virulent then trying to stop it spreading with renewed international travel restrictions could delay ending the pandemic.

 

[Pushka]

A less virulent, but extremely contagious strain is what brought the Spanish flu pandemic to an end.

Vaccination isn't enough to get herd immunity, but it sure does help.

If Omicron is less virulent then trying to stop it spreading with renewed international travel restrictions could delay ending the pandemic.

It's almost like trying to stop nature do its natural healing. But that's what we humans like to do.

 

[N860CR]

I personally know about 15 colleagues (in Aus) and 4 family members in UK who have had it.

All were vaccinated with either AZ or Pfizer and all were fine and still are fine.

(All were in good health and fitness / no underlyings. If you are overweight and unhealthy or have underlyings you are probably going to have a rougher ride of course)

Yep. I went to dinner with ten doctors in the UK 2 weeks ago. Quite the novelty having an Aussie there and it was probably the first time they’d spoken about covid socially for a while.

All ten had it at some point, general conversation was “oh it was annoying I couldn’t taste that wine!”, “oh I had it before any vaccinations haha”, “I didn’t even know. Why did I do that test!” Etc etc.

Not taking away from the severity that some people feel from it, but they remain in the minority. Add in vaccinations…..

 

[Quickstatus]

I have not seen any good studies looking at the spread of covid19 within the aircraft enviromnent
Anyone seen one please point me to it.
I believe most modern commercial aircraft use HEPA filters - the type used in operating theatres. The air filtration is therefore actually quite good and is better than a train/bus/enclosed public places such as restaurants.

My sense is it is lower than expected but higher than maybe what the airlines would like. Intra-aircraft infection transmissions have always been lower than other modes of transportation.

I'm not sure that the boarding gate has the same air quality.
Does the boarding and deplaning process contributes to infectivity?.

 

[Quickstatus]

but they remain in the minority

it remains true that the majority of people who are Covid positive - either dont know it, or know it but are asymptomatic or have a mild illness.
This perspective was lost many months ago....

2 or more VaxJab? Not such a big deal if you catch the Rona while fully jabbed....Might turboboost your B and T cells.
Maybe its time to say "Let it rip" and open the borders.....

 

[PineappleSkip]

FFS:

Victoria mulls extending quarantine for all international travellers as first Omicron cases emerge

A 72-hour quarantine period for all arrivals could be extended as soon as Monday to guard against the new variant, with a return to 14 days’ quarantine on the table.

www.theage.com.au

Big worry. FFS indeed.

I just flew into SYD tonight, was advised by NSW Health no next day flight permissible, so booked into Rydges for extra nights and cancelled and rebooked my onward flight.

At the airport I got a new fact sheet dated 27 Nov from NSW Health which says

Further advice will be provided by NSW Health within three days of your arrival into NSW to provide you with an update on your self-isolation requirements.

This kind of hints at a Bunnings quarantine: three days is only the beginning, consistent with the Age article.

However, the yesterday fact sheet is different to this one, dated 28 Nov, uploaded a few hours ago (and 20 hours after the new rules commenced). 72 hours is now minimum of three days. There is a lot of detail about onward transport. Looks like hire car might be doable if you get it direct from the airport. The new orders are here.

The new order talks about hotels keeping registers of quarantined people. You’d think they’d tell the hotels, hey. But Rydges at SYD international, about the first place I’d advise, told me they’ve been told nothing.

cheers skip

PS In Baku and Frankfurt, airport life was proceeding as normal, just masks. In Singapore I came off the flight, which was not a VTL one, and walked straight into the terminal and up to the lounge. In SYD we were greeted by a long delay before deplaning while they played a covid announcement full of dire warnings. NSW Health people in full PPE everywhere. Australia stands out as a land of COVID LOTFAP.. This. Is. Just. Madness.

 

[N860CR]

Big worry. FFS indeed.

I just flew into SYD tonight, was advised by NSW Health no next day flight permissible, so booked into Rydges for extra nights and cancelled and rebooked my onward flight.

At the airport I got a new fact sheet dated 27 Nov from NSW Health which says


This kind of hints at a Bunnings quarantine: three days is only the beginning, consistent with the Age article.

However, the yesterday fact sheet is different to this one, dated 28 Nov, uploaded a few hours ago (and 20 hours after the new rules commenced). 72 hours is now minimum of three days. There is a lot of detail about onward transport. Looks like hire car might be doable if you get it direct from the airport. The new orders are here.

The new order talks about hotels keeping registers of quarantined people. You’d think they’d tell the hotels, hey. But Rydges at SYD international, about the first place I’d advise, told me they’ve been told nothing.

cheers skip

PS In Baku and Frankfurt, airport life was proceeding as normal, just masks. In Singapore I came off the flight, which was not a VTL one, and walked straight into the terminal and up to the lounge. In SYD we were greeted by a long delay before deplaning while they played a covid announcement full of dire warnings. NSW Health people in full PPE everywhere. Australia stands out as a land of COVID LOTFAP.. This. Is. Just. Madness.

Yep. Over a week after arriving home I finally got a txt today telling me I needed to get tested . We're just all over the place. Nobody seems to know what they're doing as it's all media fuelled hysteria and policy seems to be based on that.

As one saving grace, not a single person at the drive through covid test this afternoon.

 

[Thibault]

That was quick - my EY codeshare on VA on the 8th of December BNE SYD has been canceled.
I was reprotected on the earlier VA flight at 10.05 instead of the booked 14.05 one.

But the VA website is not showing any bookable seat the 8th to SYD and the 10.05 flight has been zeroed-out on Expert Flyer.

Can't rebook the same itinerary via MEL either as sold out on the EY website.
I will wait to see what they will offer me but this is already quite disappointing and adding unnecessary stress.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

All this global knee jerk for something with NO sign of being more dangerous, i'm 9 days from seeing my family again.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Remember when Delta emerged in Dec 2020 it was before vaccines.

Since then 7.9 billion doses.

Put this reaction in to that context to make it look even more absurd.

 

[N860CR]

Remember when Delta emerged in Dec 2020 it was before vaccines.

Since then 7.9 billion doses.

Put this reaction in to that context to make it look even more absurd.

Yep. I've been speaking with some very frustrated people in South Africa tonight. It's largely being seen there as a massive racist attack. For one, it didn't actually even originate in South Africa, they simply discovered it which isn't surprising given the level of research and development that goes on there. Yet it's been labeled as a South African variant and in most cases implied that it began in the country.

General consensus is that it would have been ignored had it been picked up in the UK in a UK local. Some very upset people that a country with
"tens of thousands of cases a day" literally threw SA under the bus when it was having barely a few hundred.

Very sad state of affairs. Just as some normality was returning. The problem with these reactions is that they're very quick to implement, but not the same in reversing.

 

[Tropic]

Interested in what specific knowledge about this variant informed Israel's decision to close its borders ..

 

[jakeseven7]

Also in relation to international flights apparently the exemption rubber stamping staff are completely overloaded, so people are not getting their exemptions in time, having to cancel and rebook flights at last minute…..

Anyone not managed to get an exemption?

 

[drron]

Israel has closed border to all foreigners and returning citizens to quarantine for 14 days.

Israel closes borders to all foreigners over Omicron

Israel is to close its borders to all foreigners later on Sunday in a bid to stem the spread of the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus, authorities said.

www.africaninsider.com

If you read the link from @Pom-DownUnder there was a statement by the head of SAMA that daily cases were rising.The official data is now confirming this with daily cases rising from ~300 to over 3000 a day in the last few days.
.

Here's hoping we will look back at this time realising it was the beginning of the end for the pandemic with Omicron being more transmissable than delta but much milder. Pandemics can end this way. But I am an optimist.