Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[oznflfan]

International travel will never restart to any degree, if the politicians are going to panic every time a child in Botswana coughs.

Politically, panic seems to be the main response to anything that happens at the moment. Must be part of the job description to be one of our ‘leaders’.

None of them want to be blamed for killing Nanna on their watch. A bad look.

 

[dajop]

Some interesting observations about international travel requirements. When we made our journey to Australia the wording around pre-departure testing was thus (I checked the wayback machine):

Passengers travelling to Australia must be tested for COVID-19 72 hours or less prior to the scheduled flight departure, and display evidence of a negative test result at the time of check-in. COVID-19 PCR testing is required.

Clear and unambiguous.

New wording:

You must present evidence of a negative COVID-19 PCR test taken within 3 days of your flight’s scheduled departure to your airline when you check-in for your flight.

What exactly does this mean? Is it still 72 hours, if so, why the change? Is it depart Friday, you can get a test from Tuesday onwards (irrespective of whether you are departing at 00:05 or 23:55 or sometime in between)? Or is that anytime from Wednesday onwards? Aaaah .....

 

[jase05]

No real surprise but puts a dent in plans for many unfortunately

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465242252079337472

 

[ethernet]

No real surprise but puts a dent in plans for many unfortunately

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465242252079337472

A measly pause of two weeks or so. But devastating if you have planned well. I am not sure how LCC's like Scoot, Air Cebu and even Jetstar fare. Then there is the wildcard of other countries.

 

[JB expat]

I have been off this thread for some time as it was looking fairly simple - meaning, no need to make further predictions because international flights were resuming.

Early last week I finally booked a trip to the USA to see my family - late Feb departure. Added a whole bunch of separate internal flights to visit friends etc (and use a large American Air credit from the start of this debacle).

I don't know whether I am being naïve or acting like a stubborn 2 year old but I refuse to believe the government will revert to how things were. We were promised the ability to travel if we did the right thing (achieve the vaccine %%, get boosters, test before flying etc. etc.). If the government back peddles due to fear mongering or politics, I may march in the CBD (prob not, but you get my point). The only reason they should even consider going back to hotel quarantine or selective international border closures if there is actual data showing that the vaccines do not prevent severe COVID in a meaningful % of the population. The vaccine prevents hospitalizations, and is not a means to a COVID free society. If the vaccine does prove to be effective in preventing hospitalizations of Omicron infected individuals, nothing should change even if it does mean a spike in actual COVID cases.

 

[Tiki]

None of them want to be blamed for killing Nanna on their watch. A bad look.

Looks to me like all the nannas are vaccinated! Or at least the vast majority

 

[PineappleSkip]

The major risk is someone on your flight testing positive for the strain and everyone on the flight needing to quarantine for 14 days. Case in point:

NSW confirms two more Omicron cases in travellers from southern Africa

Genomic testing confirms another two cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant from passengers who arrived in Sydney from southern Africa last night.

www.abc.net.au

The text below that noone ever wants to get. Of course I read about it on AFF before I got the message.

Getting one of these is still a big risk with international travel and I have 100% strike rate for being a close contact on flights back to Oz, but it was academic when you were doing 14 days solitary confinement anyway.

Dear PINEAPPLE SKIP This is a message from NSW Health. You have been exposed to a COVID-19 variant of concern on Flight SQ211 on 28 November and are a CLOSE CONTACT. You may have COVID-19 and could give it to others. You must immediately get tested and self-isolate. When you go for your COVID-19 test, show this message and ask that your test is marked URGENT. Self-isolation means you may only leave or let others into your house in an emergency or to get tested. You must self-isolate for 14 days from 28 November, regardless of vaccination status. Close contacts need to have additional tests including a negative test prior to ending isolation. You are required to get tested on immediately, Day 6 and Day 12. It is important that you read the information about isolation and testing on the NSW health website: COVID-19 (coronavirus). We thank you for keeping your family and friends safe.

I might add NSW Health rang me up earlier, but didn't tell me about 14 days Quaro over the phone. They did tell me I was in J and the positive cases were a way back in Y. I already have my day 1 test and negative result.

Rydges hit the panic button when I called and asked for a quote; they had no idea about what to do. Someone else had rung and told them that NSW Health was transferring them elsewhere. Not sure why. So I have no idea if I will be transferred elsewhere too.

cheers skip

update: NSW Health told me that everyone on a flight with Omicron is currently being treated as a close contact.

 

[Flashback]

I have great sympathy for all those scrambling to get home for Christmas and/or trying to get relatives here after 2 years forced absence. However, I have two comments.

How are people testing positive on arrival (or very soon after) if they need to be fully vaccinated to fly and also show proof of a PCR test within 72 hours of departure? When I returned in September, I could not have boarded my inbound without providing the PCR test information on an officially acceptable form. A find it really strange that 10% of two flights into AMS from Africa over the weekend tested positive on arrival when they need to show a negative test before boarding. Are forged certificates that common?

A bit political but, its a pity the first world did not think about the third world while rushing to fully vaccinate this past 12 months (and now moving to a third dose). Maybe more co-ordination on the worldwide distribution would have been useful, especially here when many doses have been destroyed when past their use-by date.

As mentioned by others, infection can occur any time after the sample is taken for the pre-departure test. Being vaccinated does not exclude you from contracting the virus, either. Having flown from several African countries this year though, I have some first hand experience of how fluid testing and certificates can be.

You missed "cough* off, we're full"

No, I think that is something bogans sprout, not COVID. Commonly found on bumper bars on Holden/Fords.

If it's mild then the quicker omicron gets in somewhere non African in big numbers the better so the real truth can be accepted

Not being discriminatory but it's pretty obvious by now that most "western" countries only trust their own data despite the capabilities of other nations

Numbers here are rising already, but as you might expect, Delta numbers are decreasing.

 

[andye]

Due to arrive in LHR next week. Had hoped to take a 3h express PCR but will land too late for appointments. Ok then, overnight hotel and 3h test in the morning. Then this...

Hopefully will change as only in UK for 5 days but currently look like isolating until up to 10pm next day

 

[Pushka]

Due to arrive in LHR next week. Had hoped to take a 3h express PCR but will land too late for appointments. Ok then, overnight hotel and 3h test in the morning. Then this...
View attachment 266182
Hopefully will change as only in UK for 5 days but currently look like isolating until up to 10pm next day

Best wishes. Family is due to fly out to UK in two weeks time. They can deal with the iso at their end ok. Are you concerned about getting back to Australia now? They are but hope they can continue. Told them not to cancel anything yet but sit tight.

 

[andye]

Best wishes. Family is due to fly out to UK in two weeks time. They can deal with the iso at their end ok. Are you concerned about getting back to Australia now? They are but hope they can continue. Told them not to cancel anything yet but sit tight.

A bit twitchy (mrsandye moreso) but should only have contact with large numbers of people at the wedding the day before we return
Still trying to work out how to handle 3 day NSW iso as incorporates childrens' (who are staying here) last 2 days of term
Complicated..

 

[MEL_Traveller]

International travel will never restart to any degree, if the politicians are going to panic every time a child in Botswana coughs.

Politically, panic seems to be the main response to anything that happens at the moment. Must be part of the job description to be one of our ‘leaders’.

Is it 'every time', or just 'variants of concern'? I dunno... are there other variants which are not 'of concern' and about which we hear nothing?

I don't see this as panic, but a reasonable response to a variant of concern. Measures introduced while they work out how bad it is, or not. The alternative is to do nothing, which seems irresponsible, even negligent.

 

[Lynda2475]

We have been reporting on variants of concerns in NSW since they became a thing last November.

There wasnt any increased panic or reporting about Beta, Gamma or Kappa due to mostly being in HQ only, only 1 community case of Beta and 6 of Alpha since the reporting began.



Due to the 2 week lag on this detailed reporting we wont start seeing Omicron in the reports until Mid December.

Not sure if other states provide this detail.

 

[PineappleSkip]

IIRC Omicron got a double upgrade, bypassing 'variant of interest'.

Seems the panic button gets hit 'every time' there is a 'variant of concern'. My cynical view of the rear view mirror. May not accord with objective reality.

cheers skip

 

[arrow]

Is it 'every time', or just 'variants of concern'? I dunno... are there other variants which are not 'of concern' and about which we hear nothing?

I don't see this as panic, but a reasonable response to a variant of concern. Measures introduced while they work out how bad it is, or not. The alternative is to do nothing, which seems irresponsible, even negligent.

We are going to have to live with this virus (and the variants / mutations that follow), given we have (certainly in NSW / Vic) abandoned the elimination (and indeed the suppression) strategy I don't see why we should continue to destabilise with the tourism / travel industry with rolling closures & quarantine.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The Victorian reaction to any community spread of the "new variant" is going to be very telling, regardless of if that spread is within NSW or VIC

 

[Princess Fiona]

The Victorian reaction to any community spread of the "new variant" is going to be very telling, regardless of if that spread is within NSW or VIC

We won’t have long to wait then as there is a case who has been active in the community in NSW now
ABC news

 

[bogusidiot]

International travel will never restart to any degree, if the politicians are going to panic every time a child in Botswana coughs.

Politically, panic seems to be the main response to anything that happens at the moment. Must be part of the job description to be one of our ‘leaders’.

That's because an election is coming up. People aren't acting in good faith - ie they're trying to piggyback on the panic and uncertainty of this to try and screw-over Scomo/LNP...

 

[Silvia]

I hope that we won't see another internal state border closure as a result of community exposure.
There is already vast evidence that it's a bit too late to close - Omicron is already here, it's all about how quickly it will progress.

 

[Rebus]

I hope that we won't see another internal state border closure as a result of community exposure.
There is already vast evidence that it's a bit too late to close - Omicron is already here, it's all about how quickly it will progress.

I can't see NSW, VIC or ACT going down that pathway. As for the others, nothing would surprise me. I'm waiting for AP to denounce it as the unicorn variant.