Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

Since this is a prediction thread, anyone want to predict when Australia will stop requiring PCR test to board a flight home?

This - is basically the only reason I haven't booked more international travel.

I will make my own personal risk choices in regards to where I go and my likeliness to get covid etc etc but until this stupid requirement is gone, I'm not going anywhere where I don't feel confident in getting the right test answer back.

 

[mviy]

I don’t think the PCR requirement will go away anytime soon. It would be very surprising if it was removed before the Federal election. Overseas testing pre-departure for flights to Australia has no/negligible impact on the ability to do testing here.

The fact that arrivals to Australia have tested negative on PCR pre-departure (or have a medical certificate proving they have recovered from a recent past infection) is probably part of the reason they are happy for people to do a RAT post arrival with an honour system to trust that people will report a positive result.

Only a small percentage of those who test negative pre-departure on PCR will test positive on the day one RAT post arrival.

I think if another new variant hasn’t emerged maybe shortly after the election or after winter they might change the pre-departure PCR to a RAT test.

 

[Pushka]

I don’t think the PCR requirement will go away anytime soon. It would be very surprising if it was removed before the Federal election. Overseas testing pre-departure for flights to Australia has no/negligible impact on the ability to do testing here.

The fact that arrivals to Australia have tested negative on PCR pre-departure (or have a medical certificate proving they have recovered from a recent past infection) is probably part of the reason they are happy for people to do a RAT post arrival with an honour system to trust that people will report a positive result.

Only a small percentage of those who test negative pre-departure on PCR will test positive on the day one RAT post arrival.

I think if another new variant hasn’t emerged maybe shortly after the election or after winter they might change the pre-departure PCR to a RAT test.

My experience - two out of three! Lucky they didn't do a last minute test at the departure airport maybe.

 

[N860CR]

I don’t think the PCR requirement will go away anytime soon. It would be very surprising if it was removed before the Federal election. Overseas testing pre-departure for flights to Australia has no/negligible impact on the ability to do testing here.

The fact that arrivals to Australia have tested negative on PCR pre-departure (or have a medical certificate proving they have recovered from a recent past infection) is probably part of the reason they are happy for people to do a RAT post arrival with an honour system to trust that people will report a positive result.

Only a small percentage of those who test negative pre-departure on PCR will test positive on the day one RAT post arrival.

I think if another new variant hasn’t emerged maybe shortly after the election or after winter they might change the pre-departure PCR to a RAT test.

I do tend to agree. I can’t see it changing pre-election. In its current form, with our current transmission rate, it’s not serving any purpose but it’s also impacting so few people that it won’t even be on the radar.

 

[Flashback]

Meanwhile over in the UK .. have trips booked for every month for the next 6, including long haul. Australia is a bit behind the curve and WA more so, hopefully will catch up by mid year.

 

[N860CR]

Meanwhile over in the UK .. have trips booked for every month for the next 6, including long haul. Australia is a bit behind the curve and WA more so, hopefully will catch up by mid year.

The Brits really are leading the way. We seems to be doing a good job of wasting the benefit of our high vaccination rate with this testing obsession.

Having spent the day hearing horror stories of citizens trapped abroad because they picked the little virus up on their trip away, I do wonder how many other countries are allowing citizens to travel but then locking them out?

 

[mviy]

Personally I'm more concerned about pre-departure testing before leaving Australia. I wouldn't mind having to spend a few more weeks in the UK on a visit, but being stuck in Australia would be more of a concern. Myself and three friends visited the UK recently and none of us got COVID. Though those without a family reason to visit overseas may be more concerned about taking a trip overseas if they may be stuck there for a few weeks longer than planned.

 

[NM]

In an unexpected quarantine moment, thanks to Queensland:

NEW: All passengers and crew who were on an Air Calin flight from Tokyo to Noumea have been placed in hotel quarantine in Brisbane after their plane had to be diverted due to the ash cloud from the eruption of an underwater volcano off Tonga on the weekend

https://twitter.com/x/status/1482921414479220736

Surprised they didn't send them all off to Wellcamp to justify the investment in quarantine facilities there ...

 

[Pushka]

Personally I'm more concerned about pre-departure testing before leaving Australia. I wouldn't mind having to spend a few more weeks in the UK on a visit, but being stuck in Australia would be more of a concern. Myself and three friends visited the UK recently and none of us got COVID. Though those without a family reason to visit overseas may be more concerned about taking a trip overseas if they may be stuck there for a few weeks longer than planned.

UK doesn't require this any more. A great relief.

 

[Flashback]

UK doesn't require this any more. A great relief.

And they're about to remove testing on arrival for vaccinated people.

 

[Pushka]

And they're about to remove testing on arrival for vaccinated people.

UK got some things really right, and some things really wrong. They are embracing their 'live with covid' well. In Australia it's lip service.

 

[N860CR]

UK got some things really right, and some things really wrong. They are embracing their 'live with covid' well. In Australia it's lip service.

I don’t know if anywhere can say they got it totally right. The goal now needs to be “let’s move on” rather than living in the past. This seems like something the Australian public isn’t really ready to grasp.

 

[Must...Fly!]

At least a transition from PCR to RAT would be a start. I'm umming and arring about my trip in March still, the PCR requirement is what's really holding me back.

 

[N860CR]

At least a transition from PCR to RAT would be a start. I'm umming and arring about my trip in March still, the PCR requirement is what's really holding me back.

That would be logical. PCR tests are really not a great tool in a population that’s had such high exposure. At least a RAT is more likely to differentiate between somebody who is actually “sick” (I use that term loosely) and somebody who was weeks ago.

 

[Mattg]

As of today, the TGA now recognises the Sputnik V vaccine for the purpose of travel to Australia.

Sinopharm now only accepted for people under 60 years old.

International COVID-19 vaccines recognised by Australia

Find information on COVID-19 vaccines that are used in other countries that we recognise in Australia.

www.tga.gov.au

 

[Must...Fly!]

That would be logical. PCR tests are really not a great tool in a population that’s had such high exposure. At least a RAT is more likely to differentiate between somebody who is actually “sick” (I use that term loosely) and somebody who was weeks ago.

Media turning their attention to the 14 day issue today.

‘Insane catch-22’ rule turns Fiji holiday into a nightmare

Melbourne mother Martina Cullen has been left marooned and thousands of dollars out of pocket due to an Australian government rule on travellers that have tested positive to COVID-19.

www.theage.com.au

 

[IrishPete]

Media turning their attention to the 14 day issue today.

‘Insane catch-22’ rule turns Fiji holiday into a nightmare

Melbourne mother Martina Cullen has been left marooned and thousands of dollars out of pocket due to an Australian government rule on travellers that have tested positive to COVID-19.

www.theage.com.au

Can you be more specific, which media, please?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Can you be more specific, which media, please?

Er. The Age. As per the linked article

 

[CaptJCool]

International departures are barely a blimp on the recent track record

International travel increases as restrictions ease

www.abs.gov.au

pushed up to 229,000 overseas departures from Australia in December 2021, the highest volumes since international travel restrictions were introduced in March 2020 and a far cry from the 2,260,000 in January 2020

 

[Kendall Roy]

COVID-19: Council removes Argentina, Australia and Canada from the list of countries for which travel restrictions should be lifted

Following a review under the recommendation on the gradual lifting of the temporary restrictions on non-essential travel into the EU, the Council removed three countries from the list of countries for which travel restrictions should be lifted.

www.consilium.europa.eu

For the first time since EU advisories were published, Australia is no longer a Covid-safe country and travel restrictions are likely to be applied across some EU members.

Indonesia remains on the list.