Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

Grr graphs like that make me angry, these surveyed tourism experts need to keep pushing the governments... Australia's made it very easy to travel overseas but so many destinations that I want to go back to are still closed, Looking at the top 10 destinations Australians go...

1. New Zealand (They're in 2021, I spent 1/4 of the year last year over there thanks to the bubble but several bubble flights had ~15 people onboard as people were scared of being stuck).
2. Indonesia (specially Bali - requires 7 days quarantine so out of the question for many).
3. Thailand (Complex testing and isolation schemes - requires going back into an isolation hotel for another test several days after arrival)
4. The Philippines (No entry for tourists)
5. Japan (I transited through Haneda a few weeks ago, you could play a football match in the terminal it was that quite).
6. USA (Due to Americans staying at home the cost of things is just nuts, I looked at the West Coast or Hawaii over Xmas and couldn't find reasonable accomodation/rental cars).
7. Singapore (VTL only just reopened, lets hope it stays open!)
8. Fiji (also complex test/isolation - there's an AFF thread about it)
9. India (Has recently reintroduced 7 days isolation upon arrival)
10. UK (Just announced no test! Yay!)

I guess on the other side of things it's crazy that Australia is still closed to tourists. It's crazy that we allow tourists from some countries like Singapore, Japan and Korea but not others, we should open up to all but I think the Singapore/Fiji requirements of mandatory COVID-19 travel insurance should be included.

I completely agree with Henrus here - many countries are still effectively closed or making it very difficult for tourists/visitors. I don't see how travel will recover anytime soon.

As one who has hammered the Australian government on restrictions previously, I'm very happy with what they've done and the direction they are moving, however, they're still not allowing tourists, which is hard on the economy.

Singapore is one of the world's major hubs and is a popular country with people all over the globe - and they made this massive announcement last August about how they would "live with the virus". This has turned out to be utter BS. They have these VTL lanes with only 24 countries and the VTL process isn't exactly easy or cheap. They don't even allow transit if you have two different tickets.

You have Europe, once the most lenient for travel now going back and blocking many countries and making it very hard for others.

I think finally, it is clear that if you're not vaccinated travel is near on impossible for you. I'm fully jabbed and I strongly advocate vaccination, but unfortunately there are millions upon millions who can't get access to a vaccine. Until this is solved, travel will be pushed back even more.

I just don't see how travel can recover anytime soon if I'm honest because there are still many, many, roadblocks everywhere, which don't seem like abating anytime soon.

 

[OATEK]

I completely agree with Henrus here - many countries are still effectively closed or making it very difficult for tourists/visitors. I don't see how travel will recover anytime soon.

As one who has hammered the Australian government on restrictions previously, I'm very happy with what they've done and the direction they are moving, however, they're still not allowing tourists, which is hard on the economy.

Singapore is one of the world's major hubs and is a popular country with people all over the globe - and they made this massive announcement last August about how they would "live with the virus". This has turned out to be utter BS. They have these VTL lanes with only 24 countries and the VTL process isn't exactly easy or cheap. They don't even allow transit if you have two different tickets.

You have Europe, once the most lenient for travel now going back and blocking many countries and making it very hard for others.

I think finally, it is clear that if you're not vaccinated travel is near on impossible for you. I'm fully jabbed and I strongly advocate vaccination, but unfortunately there are millions upon millions who can't get access to a vaccine. Until this is solved, travel will be pushed back even more.

I just don't see how travel can recover anytime soon if I'm honest because there are still many, many, roadblocks everywhere, which don't seem like abating anytime soon.

While your arguments are sound overall, I do wonder how many people who wish to travel overseas can't access a vaccine. Perhaps you are arguing that the people who can't access vaccines are those who receive and provide service to travellers, and that is the barrier?

 

[ketsuzei]

While your arguments are sound overall, I do wonder how many people who wish to travel overseas can't access a vaccine. Perhaps you are arguing that the people who can't access vaccines are those who receive and provide service to travellers, and that is the barrier?

Perhaps you are arguing from an extremely sheltered perspective.

 

[mviy]

In Australia pretty much anyone can get vaccinated that wants to (and it's free) and there are extremely few that have genuine medical reasons to both not be able to have AZ and not be able to have mRNA (Pfizer/Moderna). For anyone in that position there is Novavax coming next month.

School kids that are 5-11 may find it the most difficult at the moment of the 5+ population, but at this point they're probably not travelling overseas till at least Easter, so plenty of time.

Vaccination is not a barrier for most people in Australia to travel. COVID testing and the possibility of a positive result disrupting travel plans is much more of a problem.

 

[hb13]

While your arguments are sound overall, I do wonder how many people who wish to travel overseas can't access a vaccine.

A lot, particularly in Africa. Thankfully travel is widely available to many people, however, the procurement of vaccines for each country depends on a variety of geopolitical factors, leaving millions without that option.

One of the clearest examples of these is Africa. Many African countries rejected or re-sold AZ vaccines, which left millions there (who may easily be able to travel) without any options.

South Africa in shock after AstraZeneca vaccine rollout halted

A study of the vaccine's efficacy against the South Africa variant shows "disappointing" results.

www.bbc.co.uk

Another issue with Africa is they received vaccines that were expired or about to expire, and this is because no vaccine currently is manufactured in Africa.

Why are African countries destroying covid-19 vaccines?

Bad donations and flawed supply chains are to blame

www.economist.com

We in the Western World (wealthy/poor/middle-class) were able to get jabbed with such ease that we forget how hard it is for others. And yes, sometimes money didn't have to do with it for the general population. On a governmental and bureaucratic level, it is likely that money was a key factor in some instances.

Perhaps you are arguing that the people who can't access vaccines are those who receive and provide service to travellers, and that is the barrier?

This wasn't my main point, but it was another point that ultimately is really slowing travel down.

Post automatically merged: Jan 25, 2022

Vaccination is not a barrier for most people in Australia to travel. COVID testing and the possibility of a positive result disrupting travel plans is much more of a problem.

Spot on. This continues to be a massive barrier for probably most people today.

 

[henrus]

In Australia more people have had a jab then have a passport

Only 60% of the Australian population holds a passport (I suspect expired passports over the last 24 months will make this go down).
Meanwhile 83% of our population has had at least 1 dose.

 

[OATEK]

Perhaps you are arguing from an extremely sheltered perspective.

Perhaps. I have the perspective that if you wished to travel internationally, from any continent to any other continent say (as Australians frequently do), with the significant financial costs involved, you can probably find a way to be vaccinated.

There is no doubt that for full-scale travel similar to pre-covid, many more people need to be vaccinated. I am just not sure the majority of those needing the vaccine are in turn international travellers, as per this thread. Not sure what % of people world-wide travelled internationally each year, but suspect it is well below a majority.

....
Spot on. This continues to be a massive barrier for probably most people today.

Agree completely on this point that the disruption of catching covid is a big issue. I have the luxury of being retired, and an extra week or two away staying with my family in the UK is not a problem. But for people with jobs to come back to it's a big problem.

My biggest concern as I have said earlier is being over 70, with co-morbidities, that I could finish up very unwell, but that is a risk I take for family re-union. It is not a risk I would be taking for general leisure travel until later in the year when I could see whether it was sufficiently safe to have a go. But the need to see close family after 2.5 years apart, knowing that at my age the ability to travel could come to a crashing halt at any time, then we go in a month.

 

[Anna]

Ironic in the context of this thread that not long after Australians started to be allowed out of the country and flights started resuming in greater numbers, some other countries are now thinking about not allowing Australians in due to our covid numbers here.

What does Australia’s removal from the European Council’s travel ‘white list’ mean?

Australia no longer recommended as a country from which travel restrictions should be lifted. What’s behind the decision and what will change?

www.theguardian.com

 

[PineappleSkip]

A lot, particularly in Africa. Thankfully travel is widely available to many people, however, the procurement of vaccines for each country depends on a variety of geopolitical factors, leaving millions without that option.

You are absolutely correct in what you say about vaccination rates in Africa, and other third world countries, and the global inequities that have ensued. The Africa bans in the knee jerk response to omicron served to highlight some of these inequities. Another I have contributed to is the insatiable demand for PCR tests, which sucks so much out of the third world’s meagre testing capacity. A third is the lack of access to migration and to travel for work that travel bans create.

However, I don’t think this answers @OATEK‘s question about whether lack of access to vaccines prevents people who want to travel from doing so. If you wish to travel internationally in Africa and have the means to do so, getting a jab is unlikely to be an issue. You don’t actually need the jab itself, you need the certificate to say you have the jab. That’s a whole other thing. The vax requirement likely has some impact, but it’s marginal on top of all the other covid impediments to travel. BTW there was much early concern that covid would sap the foreign remittances which are the third world’s lifeblood, but that didn’t happen.

In the third world, travel is the domain of the privileged few with means, access and connections. So too with vaccinations where the privileged, as usual, are first in line. I still marvel that my Somali colleagues got the jab long before I was eligible. They had the connections that were needed.

Lots of talk here of holiday travel. Most of those who fly out in the third world are on a plane for work, and many more travel to get health care they can’t at home. Holiday travel is very rare indeed, as is the very idea of going overseas for a holiday. It’s a quite common view over to our west that a holiday is another of those strange behaviours that only those wierd white people engage in. We’re all sheltered by our perspectives.

cheers skip

 

[henrus]

Ironic in the context of this thread that not long after Australians started to be allowed out of the country and flights started resuming in greater numbers, some other countries are now thinking about not allowing Australians in due to our covid numbers here.

I've seen a few stories about this and it really shows how dumb the media is. The EU has a "non-binding" list of "safe countries" that they tell EU countries to allow in regardless of vaccine status, these are third countries with low covid case numbers, obviously now with Australia's high case numbers we have been removed from most EU countries safe list.

The key thing that basically all EU countries are letting everyone in regardless of the list provided they're vaccinated and given all Australians leaving the country basically need to be vaccinated this isn't a problem to the Australian traveller. It does however make for a great click bait headline that "Australians could be banned from Europe".

 

[Anna]

I guess time will tell whether it is 'clickbait' or 'a developing issue that Australians should keep an eye on when considering making bookings'.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I guess time will tell whether it is 'clickbait' or 'a developing issue that Australians should keep an eye on when considering making bookings'.

Americans haven't faced much trouble, what on earth makes you think we will...

 

[scaredeycat]

Contemplating visiting the UK, Spain and/or Portugal in September.
Interested in whether this is a sensible plan or whether I am delusional.
Obviously none of us have a crystal ball. The main risk I see is that of being infected just prior to travelling or during the trip.
Considering booking flights with QF. I think they are extremely unlikely to go out of business this year.
I doubt borders will slam shut as we have seen previously.
Am I missing something that should make me seriously reconsider?

 

[henrus]

Contemplating visiting the UK, Spain and/or Portugal in September.
Interested in whether this is a sensible plan or whether I am delusional.

Nope I'd say it's all possible (even right now).

The UK has hinted that they've properly ended restrictions (and even their omicron restrictions were very mild/didn't last long), you don't require a test to enter and soon you won't require a test upon arrival.

Spain is similar, just an extra online form and you're good to enter, no tests or other cough required.

Portugal on the other hand has been slightly more annoying, the rules keep changing and different rules apply depending on how you enter (flying vs driving across the border) but I'd assume by September things will be better as the EU seems to be moving forward at a very quick pace.

The main risk I see is that of being infected just prior to travelling or during the trip.

Having just come back from Europe my logic was it's possible to get infected in Australia so it's not that much different. Obviously you'd be silly not to buy travel insurance (AFF has a great article on options that cover covid because not all do).

Technically you could fly to the UK/Spain without even getting tested so might not even know if you have it prior to traveling, medical care in all those countries is of a excellent standard and if you happen to test positive but aren't super sick the worst is extending your trip by 7 days (good travel insurance will actually pay for these extra 7 days + flight changes).

When I went over to Europe less than a month ago, I waited until actually arriving to organise the accommodation that couldn't be easily cancelled and airlines are becoming more and more flexible. Countries are constantly changing the isolation requirements and hopefully be September things will be even better, in Singapore now it's just 72 hours provided you don't have symptoms.

I doubt borders will slam shut as we have seen previously.

Both Europe and Australia seem rather committed to open borders, hopefully by then transits in Asia (such as a Singapore stop over) will be easier and require less paperwork/testing.

Entry into Australia is now the easiest it's been in the last ~22 months, one online form (which is replacing the arrival card anyway), proof of vaccination and a RAT test done less than 24 hours prior to departure for ~$30-40.

 

[mviy]

Contemplating visiting the UK, Spain and/or Portugal in September.
Interested in whether this is a sensible plan or whether I am delusional.
Obviously none of us have a crystal ball. The main risk I see is that of being infected just prior to travelling or during the trip.
Considering booking flights with QF. I think they are extremely unlikely to go out of business this year.
I doubt borders will slam shut as we have seen previously.
Am I missing something that should make me seriously reconsider?

I would book it but be prepared that things are hard to predict and the trip may not happen.

Alan Joyce is shrewd. QF should stay in business. They could try and raise capital again if they need to.

Worst case they could do what Virgin did and go into Voluntary Administration and come out of it a restructured smaller airline with new ownership.

 

[N860CR]

I went to the UK and Portugal in November. Completely easy and a total non-event in terms of covid. It’s hard to fathom in Australia, but a lot of the world has moved on. I’d be inclined to book fairly reliable airlines that transit countries without any real dramas.

JL was a good option. Zero testing required for transit or arrival in the UK. Looks like the day 2 test is a thing of the past now as well.

 

[Pushka]

UK have already announced that vaccinated travellers no longer have to test on arrival from Feb 11. Received their email alert earlier this week. It's worth subscribing to as it's official UK Govt updates.

And Europe - in summer things will shift dramatically.

Fly with Qatar as their rules follow the country of your final destination.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Contemplating visiting the UK, Spain and/or Portugal in September.
Interested in whether this is a sensible plan or whether I am delusional.

Agree with all the above comments, but September! That's a COVID variant lifetime away!

If you book late, you have a better knowledge of what's likely what at time of travel. But prices may be higher. Then again, they may not. You have kept your money risk-free longer. Change restrictions might be less generous than now.

If you book early, who knows what's what later. You know what the change/cancel rules are, and they're as good as they ever have been. Your cash has flowed, but you've sort of locked something in.

Two years of chaos and disarray have burned us all and created these sorts of thought processes. On your actual question, I'd say your plan is sensible. I don't recall anyone worrying in 2019 about whether to book travel because it might be a bad year for flu coming up. But if you have Hanrahan tendencies, remember that 1665 was a really bad year for plague.


cheers skip

 

[Anna]

Am I missing something that should make me seriously reconsider?

No, you're making a sensible assessment of your personal risk appetite. Everyone has a different level of interest in travelling right now. Some people's risk appetite is calibrated lower, eg being happy to travel in full knowledge that on return to Australia they wouldn't be allowed into their home state for 2 weeks, or eg having compelling family reasons to travel that in the person's eyes outweigh the risks. Other people's risk appetite is calibrated higher. Everyone is entitled to consider their own personal level of comfort in making a booking and getting on a plane without being derided. Nobody has a crystal ball and can reliably tell you what the situation will be in a few months time or whether it will be better or worse than now. Whether you or I feel comfortable making a booking is completely up to us, regardless of what anyone else's risk appetite might be.

 

[sydneyboi]

UK have already announced that vaccinated travellers no longer have to test on arrival from Feb 11. Received their email alert earlier this week. It's worth subscribing to as it's official UK Govt updates.

And Europe - in summer things will shift dramatically.

Fly with Qatar as their rules follow the country of your final destination.

where did you see that Qatar has this rule ? thank you