Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[VPS]

Well this is going to throw a huge spanner in the works as far as travel goes.

Researchers announce 'world's first' confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection

Researchers analysed the genome sequence to confirm that the 33-year-old IT worker had been infected by two different strains of coronavirus.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

So an IT worker from hong kong was infected in the first wave in April.re infected in August and the genomics confirm different strains.
So infection doesn't prevent reinfection with a different strain and also must throw doubt as to how effective a vaccine may be.

But didn't have any symptoms second time around but I suppose he was still contagious

 

[clod]

The Oxford vaccine is using the corona virus spike protein (inactivated) to condition the immune system into recognizing the virus. If the spike protein is the same between the various strains it should work against all of them - fingers crossed.

 

[Pushka]

The Oxford vaccine is using the corona virus spike protein (inactivated) to condition the immune system into recognizing the virus. If the spike protein is the same between the various strains it should work against all of them - fingers crossed.

I heard this explanation on the media this morning.

 

[Seat0B]

The Oxford vaccine is using the corona virus spike protein (inactivated) to condition the immune system into recognizing the virus. If the spike protein is the same between the various strains it should work against all of them - fingers crossed.

Well I certainly hope that is right, otherwise, no travel for a very long time . Maybe the UQ molecular clamp approach might work in this circumstance?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well this is going to throw a huge spanner in the works as far as travel goes.

Researchers announce 'world's first' confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection

Researchers analysed the genome sequence to confirm that the 33-year-old IT worker had been infected by two different strains of coronavirus.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

So an IT worker from hong kong was infected in the first wave in April.re infected in August and the genomics confirm different strains.
So infection doesn't prevent reinfection with a different strain and also must throw doubt as to how effective a vaccine may be.

142 days between bouts.

This seems in line with various studies which suggested that the antibody response from catching CV19 did not last long. While some were hopeful that this would make the symptoms from a second infection less severe, including hopefully a reduced viral load so that also hopefully that further transmission would be less likely.


As I understand it different vaccines work in different ways, and so hopefully one or more of the candidates may still work.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well this is going to throw a huge spanner in the works as far as travel goes.

Researchers announce 'world's first' confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection

Researchers analysed the genome sequence to confirm that the 33-year-old IT worker had been infected by two different strains of coronavirus.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

So an IT worker from hong kong was infected in the first wave in April.re infected in August and the genomics confirm different strains.
So infection doesn't prevent reinfection with a different strain and also must throw doubt as to how effective a vaccine may be.

And further to the HK man, reports from both Belgium and The Netherlands of catching CV19 a second time.



Two cases of COVID_19 infection in patients that had previously had the virus have been reported in Europe.

It follows the first confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection in a man in Hong Kong, who tested positive twice for the disease.
Researchers from the University of Hong Kong said the man was reinfected four-and-a-half months after he first caught the virus, which suggested the pandemic can infect multiple times.

The man had mild symptoms the first time and none the second time; his more recent infection was detected through screening and testing at the Hong Kong airport.

The latest cases - confirmed in Belgium and the Netherlands - will fuel concern about the effectiveness of patient's immunity.
Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst said the country's case was a woman who had contracted COVID-19 for the first time in March and then again in June, Reuters reports.

The National Institute for Public Health in the Netherlands said it had also observed a case of re-infection in an older person, Dutch media reports.

Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Michael Kidd told Today cases of reinfection should be expected as the pandemic develops.
He confirmed there were "different strains" of the virus.
"It's not surprising that we're seeing someone who has been infected a second time.
"We do know from other coronaviruses, particularly those that cause symptoms of the common cold, that people develop immunity which can then reduce quite rapidly over time."

More research needs to be completed on reports people are becoming reinfected, Monash University Associate Professor Julian Elliott said.
"We really need to understand how common that is actually and particularly what is the clinical course of someone who's reinfected … there's a lot more to learn."

He confirmed there were "different strains" of the virus.

Whether people who have had COVID-19 are immune to new infections and for how long are key questions that have implications for vaccine development and decisions about returning to work, school and social activities.

Even if someone can be infected a second time, it's not known if they have some protection against serious illness, because the immune system generally remembers how to make antibodies against a virus it's seen before.

Expect COVID-19 reinfections, warns top doctor

Two cases of COVID-19 infection in patients that had previously had the virus have been reported in Europe.

www.9news.com.au

 

[RAM]

That’s my understanding as well. There are differences in the process and CSL needs a bigger investment in equipment/facilities to produce it as well as coping with the number of units to be produced.

Fun fact - CSL uses 1/3rd of all chicken eggs produced in Australia each year, and not free range ones....

Anyone able to guess what they get used for?

Global Newsroom | CSL

www.csl.com

This was a retrospective cohort study with the objective of determining the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of cell-based quadrivalent, inactive influenza vaccine (QIVc) compared to that of egg-based, quadrivalent, inactive influenza vaccine (QIVe). The endpoint assessed was influenza-like illness (ILI), as defined by CDC, which is a widely used set of symptoms that serves as an indicator for people who have influenza infection and reflects exposure and outcome experiences during routine clinical practice.

The analysis included data from people 4 years and older in primary care setting, 92,192 who received QIVc and 1,255,983 who received a QIVe. Exposures were derived from recorded immunizations in individual patients EMRs.

I am led to believe that the 92k doses represented the entire production for the flu season (after capacity had been expanded) - but I have not confirmed that. In Australia the ratio of eggs used to doses produced implies that multiple eggs are used be vaccine dose - again unconfirmed as yet.

1. CSL has neither the equipment nor facilities nor staff (yet) to produce the Oxford vaccine for any but a 0.X% fraction of the numbers that Scott Morrison is implying. I am not certain but I believe that facility is in the US btw. Unfortunately attrociously more spin than substance.
2. If an egg-based vaccine for CV is found then for CSL to produce vaccines for say just 20 million single doses (ASSUMPTION = same process efficacy as Flu Quad vaccine) - would require the other 2/3rds of battery hen laid eggs for the next 8 years (optimistic time frame). So virtually no baked products etc for Australia over that time frame nor other medicinal uses for eggs (you'd be surprised!).
3. Global shortage for the one use glass ampoules/syringe (that any vaccine is normally packaged in) around 5 billion or so if a one-dose vaccine for CV developed - much more easily fixed but needs to be fixed. Perhaps a few AFFers could email their Federal MPs & ask if we have any capacity in Australia to produce them (MAJOR hint.....). Very easy to send off a few emails to all sides of politics.

... and this is worth reading, another Australian first - but this time NOT sold off for a song...

WEHI History: 1936 Burnet Pioneers Influenza Growth in Chick Eggs | WEHI

Burnet pioneers influenza growth in chick eggs at WEHI in 1936.

discovery.wehi.edu.au

Perhaps I had better list the suitcases after all

 

[RAM]

And further to the HK man, reports from both Belgium and The Netherlands of catching CV19 a second time.



Two cases of COVID_19 infection in patients that had previously had the virus have been reported in Europe.

It follows the first confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection in a man in Hong Kong, who tested positive twice for the disease.
Researchers from the University of Hong Kong said the man was reinfected four-and-a-half months after he first caught the virus, which suggested the pandemic can infect multiple times.

The man had mild symptoms the first time and none the second time; his more recent infection was detected through screening and testing at the Hong Kong airport.

The latest cases - confirmed in Belgium and the Netherlands - will fuel concern about the effectiveness of patient's immunity.
Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst said the country's case was a woman who had contracted COVID-19 for the first time in March and then again in June, Reuters reports.

The National Institute for Public Health in the Netherlands said it had also observed a case of re-infection in an older person, Dutch media reports.

Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Michael Kidd told Today cases of reinfection should be expected as the pandemic develops.
He confirmed there were "different strains" of the virus.
"It's not surprising that we're seeing someone who has been infected a second time.
"We do know from other coronaviruses, particularly those that cause symptoms of the common cold, that people develop immunity which can then reduce quite rapidly over time."

More research needs to be completed on reports people are becoming reinfected, Monash University Associate Professor Julian Elliott said.
"We really need to understand how common that is actually and particularly what is the clinical course of someone who's reinfected … there's a lot more to learn."

He confirmed there were "different strains" of the virus.

Whether people who have had COVID-19 are immune to new infections and for how long are key questions that have implications for vaccine development and decisions about returning to work, school and social activities.

Even if someone can be infected a second time, it's not known if they have some protection against serious illness, because the immune system generally remembers how to make antibodies against a virus it's seen before.

Expect COVID-19 reinfections, warns top doctor

Two cases of COVID-19 infection in patients that had previously had the virus have been reported in Europe.

www.9news.com.au

and last week from Australia but with a slight spin.

Australian man tested +ve in the US around July 4th. Self-isolated. Then returned to Australia in early August, tested negative. Now has tested positive again.

So perhaps it was a false positive the first time around (we hope)!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

A very positive interview last night with (another) leading medico on ACA.

Agreed we haven’t had a vaccine for earlier coronaviruses, but said this time is different, both in the new technology, and the world-wide nature of the pandemic (SARS pretty much died out, halting research).

Said the new strains of covid-19 are less lethal, but this is to be expected (the strongest strains also kill their host, so less virulent strains end up surviving, and these have a much lower mortality).

All up there were sensible answers to every one of the ‘doom and gloom’ brigade’s concerns.

Also mentioned that we aren’t placing all hopes on a vaccine, but also looking at treatments.

For those concerned about mental health implications of covid, this is the sort of news we need to have, more often.

 

[drron]

And more interesting news on the HK fellow who was reinfected.When serology tests were done on the first occasion they were negative but possibly because they were done too early.Again negative serology when he presented with the second episode-ie no antibodies detected to Covid 19.So possibly not a less severe case due to the previous infection.However the serology became positive after a few more days.

Case report of COVID-19 re-infection by a phylogenetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 strain

A case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) re-infection by a phylogenetically distinct severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strain was described in Clinical Infectious Diseases. “Epidemiological, clinical, serological and genomic analyses confirmed that the patient had...

dgalerts.docguide.com

And an explanation of why serology tests are useless in diagnosing acute infection.often not positive until 2 weeks or more after the infection.

Welcome to Precision Vaccinations News

Precision Vaccinations News publishes vaccine news patients can trust to make informed immunization decisions in partnership with doctors, nurses, and pharmacists.

www.coronavirustoday.com

 

[gethsemene]

Biggest problem with the Oxford vaccine is it needs to be stored at -70... Try getting that to subsaharan Africa safely and cost effectively! It will be difficult to distribute in Australia!

Back to the purpose of the thread, I am hoping strongly for April, it’s my brothers wedding in the UK. Even happy to pay the Aussie government 2K to sit in a hotel for 2 weeks on the way home.

 

[get me outta here]

But, will we be able to get travel insurance.

 

[Flashback]

But, will we be able to get travel insurance.

For the UK at least there is reciprocal health measures that could be used, I suppose.

I'm fortunate that my current Travel Insurance (UK based) covers me, even for trips that I've booked since the pandemic.

 

[get me outta here]

That is a positive, as long as there are no stops en route whether by choice or accident.

For the UK at least there is reciprocal health measures that could be used, I suppose.

I'm fortunate that my current Travel Insurance (UK based) covers me, even for trips that I've booked since the pandemic.

 

[fn0]

Hey everyone

Seeing it’s April Fools day, I thought it might be fun to set up a thread to cater for a kind of guess the “lollies in the jar” kinda competition



In this case,

The idea is to pick a region and take a guess at predicting a month & year for when regular scheduled flights might resume to the different world regions


Asia
America
Europe
Middle East
Pacific

So feel free to make a guess / prediction for one or more regions.

For each guess, a month / year (date, in case of need of tiebreaker) please

And thank you

 

[dvt]

Rescue plan to bring home stranded Aussies from overseas

Stranded Australians would be evacuated from overseas and placed into quarantine in remote areas of Australia under a rescue mission being drawn up by the Morrison government.

www.smh.com.au

Interesting that they are looking at quarantine in remote areas. Could this be a test run for how to open the borders early next year?

 

[p--and--t]

Rescue plan to bring home stranded Aussies from overseas

Stranded Australians would be evacuated from overseas and placed into quarantine in remote areas of Australia under a rescue mission being drawn up by the Morrison government.

www.smh.com.au

Interesting that they are looking at quarantine in remote areas. Could this be a test run for how to open the borders early next year?

I wonder where that is?

Justification for the millions being spent on Christmas Island?

Can't imagine coming to an agreement to reuse the mining camp unless there are back room deals to get the NT out of their budget problems.

 

[drron]

I have heard that many of the "trapped" Australians are dual citizens,or in India's case holders of an ICO card,and so not really trapped but will feel safer in Australia with the Covid situation where they are situated out of control.Explains why articles usually say that the countries where most are trapped are India and the Phillipines.
Brings up the question of why should we be paying for evacuation flights.Certainly should continue to pay for quarantine.

 

[Pushka]

I have heard that many of the "trapped" Australians are dual citizens,or in India's case holders of an ICO card,and so not really trapped but will feel safer in Australia with the Covid situation where they are situated out of control.Explains why articles usually say that the countries where most are trapped are India and the Phillipines.
Brings up the question of why should we be paying for evacuation flights.Certainly should continue to pay for quarantine.

But likewise I've read many stories of those who are genuinely trapped in places like the UK, one woman posted from Cyprus I think it was who has a teenager family in Victoria and had left Aus in early March and borders in Cyprus were closed in mid March and only just reopened in July but they cant afford a $15000 airfare and their original flights have been cancelled. So there are very much genuine cases out there as well.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I have heard that many of the "trapped" Australians are dual citizens,or in India's case holders of an ICO card,and so not really trapped but will feel safer in Australia with the Covid situation where they are situated out of control.Explains why articles usually say that the countries where most are trapped are India and the Phillipines.
Brings up the question of why should we be paying for evacuation flights.Certainly should continue to pay for quarantine.

Yep. Right to reside and work in two countries. Many places have this. Where to draw the line is always an issue.