Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[RAM]

I have heard that many of the "trapped" Australians are dual citizens,or in India's case holders of an ICO card,and so not really trapped but will feel safer in Australia with the Covid situation where they are situated out of control.Explains why articles usually say that the countries where most are trapped are India and the Phillipines.
Brings up the question of why should we be paying for evacuation flights.Certainly should continue to pay for quarantine.

But likewise I've read many stories of those who are genuinely trapped in places like the UK, one woman posted from Cyprus I think it was who has a teenager family in Victoria and had left Aus in early March and borders in Cyprus were closed in mid March and only just reopened in July but they cant afford a $15000 airfare and their original flights have been cancelled. So there are very much genuine cases out there as well.

Definitely genuine cases out there - & for no real need, just Fed Govt looking at voting blocs....

The problem though is there does not need to be a single one if the Federal Govt actually implemented what has been announced repeatedly - only Australians permitted to return. No mention of non-Australians who are 'close relatives' also allowed & using up a good proportion of the available seat capacity.

To put that in perspective:

1) When an airline that is still prepared to fly to Australia is limited to just 30 passengers on board - the economics do not stack up unless the bulk are paying business class fares. Does anyone think Q has gotten off lightly by refusing to fly unless guaranteed the Fed Govt fully underwrites their international flights? After all the Fed Govt has paid Q $267m from late March to 30 June 2020 in JobKeeper payments, which is more than Q's reported underlying profit....

Also worth noting that Q has called domestic flights 'repatriation flights' - close to 60% of Q's repatriation' flights charged to the Fed Govt were domestic NOT international.

Have not seen one media article pointing out that Q has stopped being an Australian flag carrier (since early June) & people returning mostly relying on Qatar.

2) The 3 flights from Tibet (into Melb) in early June were not Q flights for example, but foreign companies. Made a profit as 100% filled each plane. Highlighted the issue though as I was told (reliably) that 60%+ were neither Aust citizens nor permanent residents but close relatives of one (supposedly although some were believed to be brought in by people smugglers).

3) DFAT reported in early August that there are just 27,000 'Australians' registered with them under the CV register, of whom only 18,800 indicated they would like to return to Australia. DFAT noted that of the 18,800 many were not 'desperate' nor 'under compassionate' reasons to return (not waiting on getting a ticket).

4) Current weekly capacity is sufficient to bring all 18,800 home within 5 weeks if the arriving capacity restrained flights are restricted to solely carrying whoever DFAT calls 'Australians'. If a large chunk of that capacity is bringing in close residents of dual nationals then that is an entirely different picture - and the media are refusing to publicise this. I know as I've emailed the DFAT figures, statements from various Federal depts etc to them & asked if they could look into it & report what they find. Result = silence.

5) Current limits inbound limits AFASIK:

• Sydney - 350/day = 2,450 / week
• Perth - 525 / week
• Brisbane - 500 / week
• Adelaide - 500 / week

So 3,975 people a week.

6) Airlines as you'd expect are selling to whoever will (can afford) pay for the business class fares in preference to economy in an attempt to try to cover costs - Australian citizens, Aust permanent residents & close relatives of either group.

7) DFAT reported that of the 18,800 who wish to return to Australia (some time or urgently), around 70% are currently in (most to least):

• India
• The Philipines
• South Africa
• Vietnam

So for the UK, all of Europe, the US, Canada, South America, rest of the world adds up to below 30%.

Yet the image that is being played out in the media paints a completely different picture.

8) DFAT has organised (to date) 64 repatriation flights - with the majority not flown by Q. Of the 64 flights, 13 were from India or approx 20% ( DFAT reported). I know that 3 were from Tibet (surprised me - roughly same population as Australia!).

__________________________​

All things being equal, if the bulk of people coming into Australia are NOT 'close relatives' then by Sept 11th there should be no Australians who want to return to Australia that were unable to be carried.

For some reason, I don't expect that will be the headline!

 

[trevella]

the media are refusing to publicise this. I know as I've emailed the DFAT figures, statements from various Federal depts etc to them & asked if they could look into it & report what they find. Result = silence.

You might find a more receptive audience if you skipped all the fuzzy handwaving and made your points more succinctly with clearly sourced hard data.

 

[oz_mark]

Also worth noting that Q has called domestic flights 'repatriation flights' - close to 60% of Q's repatriation' flights charged to the Fed Govt were domestic NOT international.

Can you provide any evidence for this claim?

 

[jakeseven7]

Rescue plan to bring home stranded Aussies from overseas

Stranded Australians would be evacuated from overseas and placed into quarantine in remote areas of Australia under a rescue mission being drawn up by the Morrison government.

www.smh.com.au

Interesting that they are looking at quarantine in remote areas. Could this be a test run for how to open the borders early next year?

Wow what a surprise.... I remember posting this several times months ago and got screeched down by a few on here that will remain nameless saying this would never ever happen

 

[Himeno]

All things being equal, if the bulk of people coming into Australia are NOT 'close relatives' then by Sept 11th there should be no Australians who want to return to Australia that were unable to be carried.

Why do you assume that the people who chose to register with DFAT are the only Australians overseas?

 

[dajop]

Why do you assume that the people who chose to register with DFAT are the only Australians overseas?

Most people actually living overseas (vs travelling/visiting overseas temporarily) probably has not registered with DFAT. It's not something you even think about. Having said that, it seems that those who are overseas who want to get back and can't find a way to have registered.

 

[dajop]

Just a little trivia, can't buy a seat from Singapore into Australia until after the caps lifted, in late October, so if people can't back from Singapore, what hope have people getting to Australia from more obscure destinations.

 

[Toula92122]

Well we have lived overseas for 22 years in 3 different countries and have never registered our presence with the local Oz Embassy. We have zero interaction/contact except when we do a passport renewal and do not follow whatever social media accounts they might have. When we were considering returning to Australia we didn't even both looking to DFAT or the Embassy for advice because most of us can work it out on our own. Even now we are discussing whether we should return to Oz and we are certainly not waiting for any guidance from the government.

 

[cove]

With the mess in the US with the pandemic we think it is unlikely that we will be travelling there in the near future.

 

[Toula92122]

With the mess in the US with the pandemic we think it is unlikely that we will be travelling there in the near future.

You are right it, the numbers indicate it is a proper mess here and it has forced us to live a much smaller life. Here in SD the numbers have been depressing, over 36k+ cases and 600+ deaths but you know on a day to day basis you just get on with life and don't think about it. It's annoying to have to wear masks everywhere but it's been that way for 4 months. I hate lining up to get into TJs but I've gotten wiser on timing my visits. We are now seeing the reality of the financial impact starting to hit with a couple of businesses at the local strip mall going bust this past week. I'm beyond excited that hairdressers are reopening next week as since March they have only been open for approx 4 weeks before being shut down for a second time.

 

[drron]

We have come to accept the fact that we will probably never return to the USA,
However only partially related to Covid.I worry a bit more about the breakdown in law and order.I just don't see it settling soon.

But the major reason we have already been to all 50 States-and that means sleeping in all 50 States.On top of that Covid is going to take out 2 years of what we hoped was going to be busy travelling years in 2020/21.Possibly only another 2 years left after that so we have a lot of other things we would like to do that we haven't yet done.

My retirement plan has always been December 2021/January 2022.See no reason to change that as I hit 75 in December 2021.

 

[RAM]

Can you provide any evidence for this claim?

Sure can.

I do not believe in making up anything - much better to produce the facts & figures to counter the smoke & mirrors put about!

DFAT release stated since the beginning a total of 64 repatriation flights organised. Much more than majority not flown by Australian airlines (Q or VA).

AJ media release - over 100 repatriation flights claimed.

"...The remainder of the $515 million went to run repatriation flights on behalf of government, which included more than 100 international services as well as domestic flights, meaning the net benefit to Qantas from government support was $15 million."

So DFAT states there have been 64 official 'repatriation flights' spread across around 20 companies makes it hard for Q to have operated around 100 of them - no?

What AJ claims as 'repatriation flights' is not the official definition.

"As the national carrier, we’ll operate a small number of international services between Australia, Los Angeles, London, Hong Kong and Auckland to support the Federal Government in bringing Australians home and maintain crucial freight links."

If you wanted to use AJ's logic then Qatar Airways has operated close to 1,000 Australian repatriation flights, Singapore Airlines over 100, CHina Airlines (Taiwan) around 150, United Airlines approaching 200. Did not realise they were Australia's 'National carriers' as well!

AJ counted the Fed Gov subsidy of regular scheduled commercial flights that anyone could buy a ticket for that lasted through until June 8th to get to the 100 figure. These were not listed as 'Repatriation' flights by DFAT nor any Fed Govt dept.

"The airline has since grounded 220 planes and halted all international flying with the exception of government repatriation charters and cargo flights."

Whereas DFAT specifically listed the repatriation flights - such as the ones from Chennai in early May ($2,000 for an economy seat [yes plane had to fly to get there] seems like a very good money spinner for a full B787 on a 13 to 14 hour flight vs the then scheduled Q flights available from the US at that time @ $710 one way.)

Flights to Australia - Factsheet

and then DFAT organised these:

"The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has organised four flights to depart India between May 14 and 20.
There are 207 passengers who are expected to land in the ACT on one of the repatriation flights.

All those passengers will have to undertake mandatory 14-day quarantine in a Canberra hotel.
The flight from Delhi will arrive in Canberra on Friday morning, while another flight will be landing in Brisbane on the same day.

Many passengers on the flight have reportedly been quarantining in India prior to their departure on the chartered flight.

A Qantas flight to bring home Australians stranded in India will land in Canberra on Friday morning.

Ongoing monitoring and mental health and wellbeing support will be provided to passengers by ACT Health, including daily check-ins.
All passengers will have to undergo health screening before boarding the flight, and again on arrival at Canberra Airport.
Repatriation flights from India will also land in Melbourne on Tuesday and Sydney on Wednesday.
Regular international flights from Singapore and Qatar airlines have stopped leaving Canberra and the domestic service is pared down."

Most, including a number of regular AFFers seem to have forgotten that AJ unilaterally decided to cease all international flights in March. This then forced the Federal Govt's hand & the underwriting of scheduled services began.

Qantas has announced it will ground all its international flights and temporarily stand down two-thirds of its 30,000 staff until the end of May.

The cutbacks, announced on March 19, come as Australia’s biggest airline reels from a massive downturn in travel due to coronavirus.
Qantas international flights will be suspended from the end of March until May.
“With the Federal Government now recommending against all overseas travel from Australia, regularly scheduled international flights will continue until late March to assist with repatriation and will then be suspended until at least the end of May 2020,” Qantas said in a statement.
All bookings on cancelled flights will be converted to a travel credit. << AGAINST THE LAW BTW >>
Affected customers will be contacted directly from Monday.

What to do if you’re overseas and need to get home to Australia

Qantas has announced it will ground all its international flights and temporarily stand down two-thirds of its 30,000 staff until the end of May.

www.escape.com.au

AJ early in the piece described its a 'Qantas helping to repatriate Australians stranded overseas'. As time went on AJ went on to label them 'repatriation flights'. Some of the media also labelled them 'repatriation flights' before AJ made it common practice.

Qantas ends repatriation flights to London, Los Angeles
www.executivetraveller.com › news › qantas-ends-coro...

Jun 8, 2020 - Qantas has ended its special government-underwritten repatriation flights to London and the USA, with the last of the subsidised international flights landed this morning from Los Angeles.

 

[RAM]

Why do you assume that the people who chose to register with DFAT are the only Australians overseas?

You may have misread what I posted.

At current weekly arrival caps then all the Australians (18,800) who have contacted DFAT to say they either need to or want to return to Australia (in the next 6 months note!) should be able to be dealt with in under 5 weeks given the 3,975 weekly cap.

DFAT provided the figures & the break up that 70% of those wishing to return are located in India, The Phillipines, South Africa & Vietnam. It is worth noting that the DFAT figure was from early August - so now 4 weeks later there have been an additional 15,900 arrivals into Australia (weekly cap 4 x 3,975).

Again, I am not assuming anything, merely relying on publicly available hard data.

Certainly there are people overseas who have not registered with DFAT, no doubt. However, I think it would be safe to assume that if someone was facing an urgent or dire situation in needing to get back to Australia then they would contact Australian embassies, consulates, DFAT etc?

If they're not 'Australian' then they do not qualify to be registered with DFAT which is what seems to be swelling the demand. I do not recall a single media article that did not mention that the subjects had contacted DFAT. If the Federal Govt did wish to resolve this then with a single stroke of the pen they could by stating that only those registered with DFAT would be allowed entry.

There seems to be a major logic gap here. Either the Federal Govt is controlling the Australian border or it is not? If it is then wouldn't you expect it to require (similar to the US) that any intending traveller has to present evidence prior to being allowed to check-in to an Australian bound flight? The US Govt tracks every flight PRIOR to even check in. As soon as you're ticketed for a flight the US Govt knows about you.

Late September = no more of the 18,800 standed Australians (end July figure) registered with DFAT.

There have been a few AFFers who've posted about their European summer holidays in July/August - flying out from Australia & returning back to Australia a couple of weeks later. If you know how to work the system....

Meanwhile a number of "Australia's national carriers" are saying that they have bookings for over 100,000 people wanting to fly into Australia.

Airlines warn flying back 100,000 stranded Australians will take six months unless travel caps eased

Airlines say they have been forced to prioritise customers who pay more for tickets, with one flight carrying as few as four economy passengers

www.theguardian.com

"On Friday, the Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (Bara) – of which Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways and Singapore Airlines are members – questioned the figure of 18,800 Australians who had registered their intent to return home with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Barry Abrams, executive director of Bara, said “the current backlog of passengers for international airlines” suggests “more than 100,000 Australians could be seeking to return home” and that “it would take some six months” to fly them all.

____________________________________​

BTW 38 airlines operated international flights into Australia in the month of June 2020 carrying over 64,000 passengers.

International Airline Activity—Monthly Publications

These reports cover monthly international aircraft, passenger, freight and mail movements, flights, available seats, seat load factors and airline market shares. Details are provided for airline, country, city pair and airport.

www.bitre.gov.au

 

[Flashback]

There have been a few AFFers who've posted about their European summer holidays in July/August - flying out from Australia & returning back to Australia a couple of weeks later. If you know how to work the system....

Who, out of interest? If it's me ...... well, I live in London, so ....

 

[Flashback]

It seems like the caps aren't being hit each week anyway, so more than enough opportunity for people to come back if they want (to pay the quarantine).

Quarantine system for returned travellers running below capacity

The hotel quarantine system for returned travellers is running below its stated capacity, with significantly fewer than 4000 Australians are actually arriving home from overseas each week.

www.smh.com.au

 

[dajop]

It seems like the caps aren't being hit each week anyway, so more than enough opportunity for people to come back if they want (to pay the quarantine).

Quarantine system for returned travellers running below capacity

The hotel quarantine system for returned travellers is running below its stated capacity, with significantly fewer than 4000 Australians are actually arriving home from overseas each week.

www.smh.com.au

It may be a case of some airlines not filling their allocations and others being oversubscribed. I know I looked on SQ on expert flyer and it is not showing availability - in any class, to any city, until Oct 25 I think. Scoot on the other hand have some seats into PER tomorrow and again in one months time.

 

[love_the_life]

It seems like the caps aren't being hit each week anyway, so more than enough opportunity for people to come back if they want (to pay the quarantine).

Quarantine system for returned travellers running below capacity

The hotel quarantine system for returned travellers is running below its stated capacity, with significantly fewer than 4000 Australians are actually arriving home from overseas each week.

www.smh.com.au

My brother in Ireland had the (not so) bight idea that he might come back to Australia to become our mother's carer (instead of her paying to go into resi care as she is now). After a bit of research, that option disappeared thank goodness, A combination of not being able to get a flight, having to pay J fare for the best shot and then paying for quarantine helped him to see sense. Not only that but his wife would be staying in Ireland looking after their greyhounds, As he is almost 80, I can't see him managing full time caring either.

 

[Toula92122]

I checked on United for flights going direct from SFO to Sydney as think they are the only game in town from the US. Next available seat for purchase is 3 October and they are not selling economy seats on direct flights, it's business class fares only for $5,900 US.

 

[Melburnian1]

Mattg has written a lengthy and fact-filled article on when Australians will be allowed to go overseas without a 'ban' in place, but left out how the Victorian government is the only one in Australia that has significantly made huge errors in its hotel quarantine program. 99 per cent of community transmission came from these errors.

This is a major reason why the Feds are reluctant to give us a timetable as to when specific routes may 'open up' (bearing in mind while Aus Border Force may now be processing applications for exemption more quickly as Mattg indicates, none of us can go overseas for purely leisure even if we perceived a country (like Japan) was 'safe' and we said we'd pay for hotel quarantine upon our return or even indicated we'd be prepared to wear an ankle bracelet at home for a fortnight.

 

[aggie57]

You are right it, the numbers indicate it is a proper mess here and it has forced us to live a much smaller life. Here in SD the numbers have been depressing, over 36k+ cases and 600+ deaths but you know on a day to day basis you just get on with life and don't think about it. It's annoying to have to wear masks everywhere but it's been that way for 4 months. I hate lining up to get into TJs but I've gotten wiser on timing my visits. We are now seeing the reality of the financial impact starting to hit with a couple of businesses at the local strip mall going bust this past week. I'm beyond excited that hairdressers are reopening next week as since March they have only been open for approx 4 weeks before being shut down for a second time.

Pretty much mirrors our experience; we're Melburnians living in Newport Beach so just up the road from you. It's a bit surreal watching the case numbers around here and comparing them to Australia and New Zealand (where I am originally from) but at the same time going about our lives here in a semi-normal way. Your description as a 'smaller life is a good way to describe it.

But I don't see how the Australian Govt. can keep the borders locked down like they are indefinitely. Other countries and other economies are trying to find ways to deal with this until a vaccine is available and I really think Australia needs to as well.