Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pom-DownUnder]

Oh dear, surely not Anna

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[jakeseven7]

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This will probably mean home quarantine at great scale in NSW as soon as late Oct

The pm just announced in Washington they will be ‘facilitating’ more international commercial flights into Australia (previously indicated that QF will be underwritten as they start up international…)…. So will be interesting to see if this actually materialises…

 

[dajop]

The PM just announced in Washington they will be ‘facilitating’ more international commercial flights into Australia (previously indicated that QF will be underwritten as they start up international…)…. So will be interesting to see if this actually materialises…

Still don’t get it. Just let some of the current flights fill their seats. the capacity is at least 10,000 seats a week into Sydney alone. That’s equivalent to an extra 42 facilitated QF 787 flights a week …

 

[mviy]

The PM talking up international travel, however still not giving any firm dates to enable airlines to prepare:

 

[Pushka]

The PM talking up international travel, however still not giving any firm dates to enable airlines to prepare:

Hopefully that's all happening behind the scenes and just not ready for public consumption yet. Qantas seems very bullish.

 

[mviy]

The thing is though for outbound travel most people can’t apply for leave at a moment’s notice. So passengers need time to prepare and confidence to book from firm dates, no ifs, no buts, that the government will stick to.

 

[OATEK]

The thing is though for outbound travel most people can’t apply for leave at a moment’s notice. So passengers need time to prepare and confidence to book from firm dates, no ifs, no buts, that the government will stick to.

While I don't disagree with your broad statement, that many people are looking for certainty, but many people booking may not have to worry about leave or other similar considerations. I can only speak for the few people I know who are ready to go, many that run their own business, are semi-retired etc who will be out of here at the drop of a hat.

 

[dvt]

The PM talking up international travel, however still not giving any firm dates to enable airlines to prepare:

Almost feels as if the 70% target to increase caps for returning Aussies has been abandoned. Haven't heard much about that phase recently

 

[OATEK]

Almost feels as if the 70% target to increase caps for returning Aussies has been abandoned. Haven't heard much about that phase recently

The caps are largely state driven though, and getting them all to agree lifting them would probably be impossible even at 70%. We will have to hope that some states break away (eg NSW) and that this lifts caps by virtue of the numbers who can come through SYD.

 

[robbo135]

The thing is though for outbound travel most people can’t apply for leave at a moment’s notice. So passengers need time to prepare and confidence to book from firm dates, no ifs, no buts, that the government will stick to.

People applying for leave is a minor piece in this partcularly around Dec/Jan when people would be taking time off anyway, there are massive leave balances being accrued atm particularly in NSW/VIC where lockdowns has meant lower levels of leave taken so businesses will be happy for people to take leave.

The biggest issue is actually airlines putting on capacity, you can't actually just schedule additional flights on a whim.

 

[dajop]

The biggest issue is actually airlines putting on capacity, you can't actually just schedule additional flights on a whim.

No this is not a huge issue.

Take Sydney, on the current schedule, in which airlines are permitted to only carry 750 passengers a week into Sydney there are about 18,500 seats on scheduled flights that are operating - so by simply being allowed to sell all of those seats, there's an extra 18,000 seats (or 2,500/day) without a single extra flight needing to be scheduled. Yes, they would need to ramp up catering etc, but I am sure most of the airlines flying into Sydney could do that, and within a few weeks schedule extra flights if the demand was there..

For Qantas of course this will be more of a challenge, as they have no scheduled flights at the moment.

 

[hb13]

Hopefully that's all happening behind the scenes and just not ready for public consumption yet. Qantas seems very bullish.

There could be the issue - I hope not, but it seems very likely now. QF clearly have been talking to the government and are bullish because they seem to know things many other airlines don't. Other airlines haven't effectively cancelled all flights till Q1 next year for no reason.

If this is indeed true (that QF is in the know and other airlines are not), this bodes badly for any of us wanting to fly to Aus on other airlines. What I read from this is that the government is planning to relax travel rules and quarantine restrictions for people coming from a handful of countries, that will arrive into Aus on QF (direct flight) only.

This rules out many thousands of Aussies from being able to come home anytime soon, and all the other airlines, I imagine will react furiously to this because of what they've done for Australia in the past 18 months.

 

[Pushka]

There could lie the issue - I hope not, but it seems very likely now. QF clearly have been talking to the government and are bullish because they seem to know things many other airlines don't. Other airlines haven't effectively cancelled all flights till Q1 next year for no reason.

If this is indeed true (that QF is in the know and other airlines are not), this bodes badly for any of us wanting to fly to Aus on other airlines. What I read from this is that the government is planning to relax travel rules and quarantine restrictions for people coming from a handful of countries, that will arrive into Aus on QF (direct flight) only.

This rules out many thousands of Aussies from being able to come home anytime soon, and all the other airlines, I imagine will react furiously to this because of what they've done for Australia in the past 18 months.

In reality Qantas is the only truly major airline that suspended overseas flights. EK QR CX and SQ continued to fly into all cities so their infrastructure still exists, admittedly in skeleton format now.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

For what its worth I have a seat on a SIN->MEL around the 12th of Jan, when i arranged it about 4 weeks ago i was offered SIN>MEL or SIN>SYD both with seats avail in Business on QF.

I tried to change from the one going to MEL to the one going to SYD at the end of last week and was told that now both flights are still there but are fully booked.

 

[Jousams]

There could be the issue - I hope not, but it seems very likely now. QF clearly have been talking to the government and are bullish because they seem to know things many other airlines don't. Other airlines haven't effectively cancelled all flights till Q1 next year for no reason.

If this is indeed true (that QF is in the know and other airlines are not), this bodes badly for any of us wanting to fly to Aus on other airlines. What I read from this is that the government is planning to relax travel rules and quarantine restrictions for people coming from a handful of countries, that will arrive into Aus on QF (direct flight) only.

This rules out many thousands of Aussies from being able to come home anytime soon, and all the other airlines, I imagine will react furiously to this because of what they've done for Australia in the past 18 months.

If this is true it’s incredibly cruel. A 17/18 December opening up would not give sufficient time for people to leave and come back.

 

[jakeseven7]

There could be the issue - I hope not, but it seems very likely now. QF clearly have been talking to the government and are bullish because they seem to know things many other airlines don't. Other airlines haven't effectively cancelled all flights till Q1 next year for no reason.

If this is indeed true (that QF is in the know and other airlines are not), this bodes badly for any of us wanting to fly to Aus on other airlines. What I read from this is that the government is planning to relax travel rules and quarantine restrictions for people coming from a handful of countries, that will arrive into Aus on QF (direct flight) only.

This rules out many thousands of Aussies from being able to come home anytime soon, and all the other airlines, I imagine will react furiously to this because of what they've done for Australia in the past 18 months.

I don’t think any of this is in any way accurate…. The other overseas airlines have been flying consistently because they have been flying elsewhere other than Australia consistently because other markets are open. Australia is just another destination.

It will be very very easy for them to throw another few flights on if the will and demand is there as they are already up and running. I’m not concerned about this at all.

As discussed ad nauseous (pun intended) QFi has been disproportionately disadvantaged because they are an end of line carrier with a Federal Govenrment that has no real power anymore and a bunch of unpredictable hick premiers who struggle with basic English running the show.

I honestly feel desperately sorry for them (and the ashes of VAi) having to try and manage all of this.

 

[dajop]

Other airlines haven't effectively cancelled all flights till Q1 next year for no reason.

That’s a common misconception. You need to look at flights departing (not those arriving) to understand what aircraft other airlines are flying. SQ for one is still operating double daily flights from MEL, SYD, BNE and PER to SIN (that’s 40% of 2019 levels) with Scoot operating daily from PER and MEL. UA and DL are both selling daily flights from SYD to LAX. CX into HKG are selling 10/week from SYD and 7/week from MEL.

The ME3 on the other hand seem too be operating a skeleton schedule and have cancelled many flights - in both directions - that they were originally planning to operate.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

There could be the issue - I hope not, but it seems very likely now. QF clearly have been talking to the government and are bullish because they seem to know things many other airlines don't. Other airlines haven't effectively cancelled all flights till Q1 next year for no reason.

If this is indeed true (that QF is in the know and other airlines are not), this bodes badly for any of us wanting to fly to Aus on other airlines. What I read from this is that the government is planning to relax travel rules and quarantine restrictions for people coming from a handful of countries, that will arrive into Aus on QF (direct flight) only.

This rules out many thousands of Aussies from being able to come home anytime soon, and all the other airlines, I imagine will react furiously to this because of what they've done for Australia in the past 18 months.

I think there will be a problem if it's 'direct QF flights only'. Many people can't afford the cost of hotel quarantine as it is and insisting on 'QF only' would simply be replacing the cost of HQ with the cost of a QF airfare (unless QF does a 180 and actually makes their fares remotely reasonable).

 

[Telemachus]

For what its worth I have a seat on a SIN->MEL around the 12th of Jan, when i arranged it about 4 weeks ago i was offered SIN>MEL or SIN>SYD both with seats avail in Business on QF.

I tried to change from the one going to MEL to the one going to SYD at the end of last week and was told that now both flights are still there but are fully booked.

Interesting but unsurprising that you couldn’t snare a seat on the SIN-SYD flight. You will no doubt look at your options again when we have ‘certainty’ about various dependencies and other carriers then release more inbound seats (and flights) for sale.

It looks like you are booked to do the same as me i.e. out on EK via DXB and back on QF via SIN. In looking for something else in this thread I happened on your post #9664 of 2 Sep, commenting after what must have been a buttock-clenching moment when the outbound ban was rolled over to 17 Dec: while that date is not actually an indicator of anything much, are you still sitting on your original 8 Dec outbound booking or did you change it? Given the NC-endorsed plan and vax trajectory towards 80%, you ought to be fine staying with 8 Dec in any logical, sane world: such a pity we’re not in one.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Interesting but unsurprising that you couldn’t snare a seat on the SIN-SYD flight. You will no doubt look at your options again when we have ‘certainty’ about various dependencies and other carriers then release more inbound seats (and flights) for sale.

It looks like you are booked to do the same as me i.e. out on EK via DXB and back on QF via SIN. In looking for something else in this thread I happened on your post #9664 of 2 Sep, commenting after what must have been a buttock-clenching moment when the outbound ban was rolled over to 17 Dec: while that date is not actually an indicator of anything much, are you still sitting on your original 8 Dec outbound booking or did you change it? Given the NC-endorsed plan and vax trajectory towards 80%, you ought to be fine staying with 8 Dec in any logical, sane world: such a pity we’re not in one.

yes indeed, fingers crossed, i'm 'quite' confident currently