Project Sunrise: A350 or 777X?

[Quickstatus]

it’s getting away from the premise that an early write off might be financially beneficial.
Then As a customer I care not about their RSK or EBITDA.

As a shareholder (possibly via super) I don’t care about granular costs like this. The shareholder pays AJ the big bucks to look after that.

 

[mflyer100]

Another thing to note is given an order of up to 12 aircraft I assume this really only leaves qantas with the ability to select one destination other than LHR and JFK.

Assuming flights from both SYD + MEL, each route would require two planes daily meaning that only one of Chicago/Paris/Frankfurt would be selected. Unless they decide to have less than daily services e.g 4x weekly to Paris and 3x weekly to Frankfurt which I don't really see them doing.

Final option would be maybe to have seperate routes e.g Sydney to Paris, Melbourne to Frankfurt but not sure if this would be ideal either.

 

[Quickstatus]

PSunrise is a very hypothetical exercise ATM. So any derivatives from that exercise is likely even more inaccurate.

There has never been any discussion about MEL-JFK and that flight duration would be +1-1.2 hours on top of a SYD-JFK,which is already a stretch. BTW a MEL-JFK is about 100 shorter than SYD-LHR

MEL-LHR is about the same distance as SYD-LHR but would cannibalise QF9

Likely it would replace the 747 on the QF63/64 and QF27/28 routes and over time replace QF7/8
But who knows. Likely if we wait 5-10 years we will have a better idea as the 747 and likely A380 would be retired or on the way out.

 

[oz_mark]

No. Quite the opposite. As AJ has been quoted as saying, it would be cheaper to send two 787s across the Pacific, nose to tail, than the one 380. The airline will get out of very large aircraft entirely. It was a bet by Airbus (and stupidly followed by Boeing with the 747-8) that bigger was better. As has been proven, that’s only the case in a very small basket of circumstances, with the entire market moving back to mid sized aircraft. Joyce hasn’t cared about market share thus far, and if they manage to keep control of a reasonable part of the premium market with ULR flights, he won’t be running hugely expensive aircraft loaded with discount travellers.

Slot constraints didn't end up being as big a problem as many were expecting either.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

PSunrise is a very hypothetical exercise ATM. So any derivatives from that exercise is likely even more inaccurate.

There has never been any discussion about MEL-JFK and that flight duration would be +1-1.2 hours on top of a SYD-JFK,which is already a stretch.

MEL-LHR is about the same distance as SYD-LHR but would cannibalise QF9

Likely it would replace the 747 on the QF63/64 and QF27/28 routes and over time replace QF7/8
But who knows. Likely if we wait 5-10 years we will have a better idea as the 747 and likely A380 would be retired or on the way out.

Aren't they going to have problems replacing the 747s with 2 engine aircraft on those routes?

 

[Quickstatus]

Aren't they going to have problems replacing the 747s with 2 engine aircraft on those routes?

I believe it requires 370 min ETOPS or at least 330min. (Or is it EDTO).
Media reports suggests the airframe-engine combo has been granted that by FAA. But it will also require same from CASA as the airline is AUS registered.

 

[Danger]

Interesting that a couple of the blogs are calling out Qantas's marketing ploy.

To make a long story slightly shorter, you can keep your wallet in your pocket, at least for now. If, and that’s a big “if” Qantas ever goes through with the project, it’s still years off. If we see a publicly avail Qantas Project Sunrise flight take flight before the end of 2022, I’ll donate $1000 to the charity of Alan Joyce’s choice, assuming he’s still there in two years. Things just change so fast these days.

Stop Hyping The Qantas A350 "Project Sunrise" Announcement...

The news here is that they’ve deferred a decision, not that they are doing anything. And the word that they’ve selected the aircraft only means they’ve tentatively decided not to order the Boeing 777X. It doesn’t mean they’ve ordered ultra long haul planes. And it doesn’t mean they’re going to fly these routes. In fact they’ve said they won’t make any decision until March.

Don't Fall For The Hype: Qantas Hasn't Pulled The Trigger On "Project Sunrise" - View from the Wing

 

[moa999]

I don't think Qantas really hyped much this time. They put out a 1pg release - it's the media that's done the hyping, because anything with Qantas in the headlines has high click thru

 

[Quickstatus]

It’s just AJ playing the negotiation game with the manufacturers and pilots

 

[p--and--t]

I doubt anybody knows if/when this will happen including AJ and QF management generally. There are a lot of parts to this puzzle that need to be put in place.

BUT, if it does happen, a truck load of naysayers and armchair experts are going to be eating humble pie.

 

[oz_mark]

It’s just AJ playing the negotiation game with the manufacturers and pilots

Although you have to wonder how many are just playing along with his theatrics.
There may be some continuity problems in the production though - he managed to go from 'bids are not good enough - try again' to 'we;ve selected Airbus and got an extension' in 3 days.
My view - come hell or high water he will get this through. Even if he has to find a way around the pilots. It;s an ego thing

 

[oz_mark]

and from the SMH

S&P director of corporate ratings Graeme Ferguson said the business case for Project Sunrise probably never stacked up, and that Qantas was now trying to blame its pilots for it falling over.

"Management successfully juiced two and a half years’ worth of PR gimmicks that distracted from Qantas’ chronic fleet underinvestment," he said. "Now pilots will be cast as villains. You have got to admire the gall.”

Pilots push back on Qantas' pressure over ultra-long haul flight deal

It comes as the airline settled on Airbus' A350-1000 as its preferred aircraft to operate non-stop flights to London and New York.

www.smh.com.au

 

[TomVexille]

Even BA tried to crunch the numbers for some 2nd hand A380 but could not make the numbers work. And AF have accelerated the retirement of all their A380 - well before the 20yr mark.

The XWB is also slightly wider than the 787. Not by much but likely to give the poor Y passengers maybe an extra 10-15mm seat width. I don’t think wide enough for 10 across

If the A350 XWB comes into play, how would the 787-9 fit into the overall operations?

Airbus has been pushing the 10 abreast A350 idea. Primarily to LCCs, but it's an option

 

[defurax]

Airbus has been pushing the 10 abreast A350 idea. Primarily to LCCs, but it's an option

Air Caraïbes is already flying 10 seats abreast config, but apparently even QR is considering it!!!

Air Caraïbes uses A350 to squeeze out route returns | Aviation Week Network

While all operators to date have adopted the standard nine-abreast arrangement initially detailed by the carrier in its catalogue, Air Caraïbes has selected a dense ten-abreast configuration with a seat width of just below 17 inches, enabling it squeeze more returns out of the aircraft. This...

www.routesonline.com

 

[moa999]

Air Caraïbes is already flying 10 seats abreast config, but apparently even QR is considering it!!!

Sounds like a similar width to the 9 abreast A330s, that I think is LCC only - AirAsiaX and Cebu Pacific in particular. (The 330 being narrower than the 787)

 

[jb747]

Airbus has been pushing the 10 abreast A350 idea. Primarily to LCCs, but it's an option

Sunrise, if it happens, will be all about weight. Take the aircraft at MTOW. Subtract the fuel burn required for the sector, plus the reserves. Subtract the empty weight from that. The remainder is what you can use for passengers, cargo, water, and catering.

At this point, my bet is that it won't happen, but management will claim they were all set to go. If only the crew would have flown them for way less than the 787 contract (which itself is much worse than the 330/747/380). Oh, those horrid people. It's all their fault.

I have a hat, which I'm prepared to eat. But I think it's a pretty safe hat.

 

[flyer89]

At this point, my bet is that it won't happen, but management will claim they were all set to go. If only the crew would have flown them for way less than the 787 contract (which itself is much worse than the 330/747/380). Oh, those horrid people. It's all their fault.

You seem to be suggesting that an airline requires aircraft. Where did you get crazy idea from?

 

[drron]

And the latest junket has taken off.
.
QF7879 has just taken off on its nonstopProject sunrise research flight from JFK to SYD. The flight is commanded by Capt Brad Hodson. We'll be doing live updates from the coughpit. Follow our journey.
flight radar24

 

[DC3]

And the latest junket has taken off.



QF7879 has just taken off on its nonstopProject sunrise research flight from JFK to SYD. The flight is commanded by Capt Brad Hodson. We'll be doing live updates from the coughpit. Follow our journey.
flight radar24

I’d like to see “Captain Wayne” from Jitconnict do something with this flight.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

Interesting that they don't seem to have any of the particularly photogenic crew from the promotions team there.