Project Sunrise: A350 or 777X?

[moa999]

Dixon simply left a massive book.

115 787 firm/options/rights on the 787s through 2025 before the prototype had even flown.
Of the 65 originally firm 51 were cancelled. 11 delivered JQ, 3 converted to -9 to QF, with 8 more options almost delivered and 3 scheduled for 2020.

So there are possibly another 30-40 787 options/rights left from Dixon's time (at good prices)

Qantas has tagged the 787 as a ULR aircraft, though is at least trialling it on the NZ routes over Xmas.. however in Vietnam and Japan it's frequently used in short-haul.
With the 797 at risk could QF use some of the 787 book for ultimate domestic 332 replacement?

While the 321neoLRs are destined for JQ, there's pretty strong smoke signals that some of the 36 321XLRs (10 of which are a new AJ order, the rest again from Dixon) due 2024-202? will end up with QF.

 

[OZDUCK]

The latest press report. Still very uncertain.

Qantas non-stop London, New York flights on track for 2026

The Red Roo’s first ultra-long-range A350 flights are expected to lift off in the back half of 2026.

www.executivetraveller.com

 

[esseeeayeenn]

I hope they do Project Sunrise but only so it attracts everyone willing to pay the 30% premium for an excrutiatingly long flight leaving more capacity and lower fares on the routes with a stopover which I enjoy.

 

[PineappleSkip]

the airline is still not ready to pull the trigger

I am rather sick of this same old hype. We could be hearing this still in 2024.

The manufacturers need to contribute their part, the pilots and the regulators have to contribute their part

And this as well. I’m over this...

Cheers skip

 

[juddles]

Just expressing my humble opinion, but forgetting the current economics and issues, point to point global travel will always be the end game. I dislike many things about QF, and love an equal many. Due to QF's very difficult geographical position, these flights are more important to them than many global carriers. Hence their focus. But this means QF is leading what will be an inevitable charge. If QF are concentrating on this and doing the numbers, learning, extracting deals, etc, this may place them well for the future.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

Just expressing my humble opinion, but forgetting the current economics and issues, point to point global travel will always be the end game. I dislike many things about QF, and love an equal many. Due to QF's very difficult geographical position, these flights are more important to them than many global carriers. Hence their focus. But this means QF is leading what will be an inevitable charge. If QF are concentrating on this and doing the numbers, learning, extracting deals, etc, this may place them well for the future.

Only between some points.
Some pairs of points will simply never have the PAX numbers required.
Sure you might be able to do SYD-CDG and MEL-CDG and even BNE-CDG and PER-CDG but will ADL-CDG ever be viable? CBR-CDG?
Replace CDG with MAD and reiterate. Then replace MAD with LYS and try again. Or NCE.
But you can fill a plane from ADL to DXB or AUH or DOH with PAX who want to fly to CDG, MAD, LYS, NCE etc.
Please don't focus on the examples I chose off the top of my head, focus on the principle.
I am not saying point to point travel doesn't have it's place, but the economics which drove the evolution of the hub and spoke model will maintain it for the foreseeable future.

 

[juddles]

Only between some points.
Some pairs of points will simply never have the PAX numbers required.
Sure you might be able to do SYD-CDG and MEL-CDG and even BNE-CDG and PER-CDG but will ADL-CDG ever be viable? CBR-CDG?
Replace CDG with MAD and reiterate. Then replace MAD with LYS and try again. Or NCE.
I am not saying point to point travel doesn't have it's place, but the economics which drove the evolution of the hub and spoke model will maintain it for the foreseeable future.

I get your view, but I also think that time will change things. Airlines (aircraft) become ever more efficient. Your "foreseeable future" is valid, but will only be so for a certain period. Maybe 5 years? IMHO

It may take 5 years or 20, but eventually travel around the planet will all be point to point. Given the current advances in aircraft it is entirely believable that within twenty years there will be aircraft of sub-200 pax that can do any A to B on the planet. Economically.

 

[juddles]

To give an example of how quickly things change, did anyone here ten years ago remotely expect the rise of drones?

 

[moa999]

It may take 5 years or 20, but eventually travel around the planet will all be point to point.

Think there will always be a need for some connections - not every A to B will have enough passengers to justify a direct connection, but the number of A-B pairs will grow - particularly with the smaller 321LR and 321XLR ranges.

Agree for Qantas it's a big change that improves their position - mainly because it reduces competition.
You've got 20+ carriers on the Kangaroo route, probably 15+ carriers to NY if you include via Asia.
Cant see more than 1 or 2 airlines going direct.

Now if course in 10 years Elon Musk might be really turning travel on its head.

 

[Brettmcg]

QANTAS UPDATE ON PROJECT SUNRISE

• Airbus A350 selected as preferred aircraft (no order placed)
• Deadline for confirming delivery slots extended by one month
• Regulatory support for ultra long haul routes, pending formal application
• Discussions with pilots ongoing

QANTAS UPDATE ON PROJECT SUNRISE

Keep up to date with Qantas' latest news and information, media releases, articles, images and more with the Qantas News Room.

www.qantasnewsroom.com.au

 

[SeatBackForward]

QANTAS UPDATE ON PROJECT SUNRISE

• Airbus A350 selected as preferred aircraft (no order placed)
• Deadline for confirming delivery slots extended by one month
• Regulatory support for ultra long haul routes, pending formal application
• Discussions with pilots ongoing

QANTAS UPDATE ON PROJECT SUNRISE

Keep up to date with Qantas' latest news and information, media releases, articles, images and more with the Qantas News Room.

www.qantasnewsroom.com.au

A350 it is then.

 

[defurax]

QANTAS UPDATE ON PROJECT SUNRISE

• Airbus A350 selected as preferred aircraft (no order placed)
• Deadline for confirming delivery slots extended by one month
• Regulatory support for ultra long haul routes, pending formal application
• Discussions with pilots ongoing

QANTAS UPDATE ON PROJECT SUNRISE

Keep up to date with Qantas' latest news and information, media releases, articles, images and more with the Qantas News Room.

www.qantasnewsroom.com.au

I read that Airbus is offering A350 configs with 10 seats abreast in Y, so now Alan can order some A350

 

[sevenfourtyseven]

We'll never see a QF 777 then.

 

[flyer89]

Now let’s see if they order them....

 

[rock86]

CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE

Design of the customer experience for flights up to 21 hours continues, including new cabins across First Class, Business, Premium Economy and Economy. Research flights have underscored the importance of dedicated space for stretching and movement for Economy passengers in particular, as well as the potential benefits from re-designing the service on board to actively shift people to their destination timezone.

So I'm guessing their research has indicated that the ergonomics of 10 abreast in Y for these ultra longhaul routes doesn't cut it, however finance will say (and rightly so, as I say in our company finance is always right ) no 10 abreast and the overall economics don't provide the required return so no ultra longhaul, find another way without impacting this - which looks to be 'dedicated stretching spaces'.

 

[SeatBackForward]

This whole project sunrise thing..want to make a 20hr flight comfortable and attractive - just give us a little bit more room in the seats. Maybe the economics of such long flights (Like SQ did) will mean they'll be premium only cabins, PE>J>F ?

 

[moa999]

Maybe the economics of such long flights (Like SQ did) will mean they'll be premium only cabins, PE>J>F ?

They already said it will be 4-class but premium heavy
Just not sufficient daily demand for all premium cabins.

 

[jb747]

The 350 has been the only realistic aircraft for quite some time. All this announcement does is affirm what was pretty obvious to those who fly them.

But, it is not an order. I expect that they’ll now be using this in the EBA ”negotiations” in an attempt to force through their wish list. And, in three months, when no order eventuates, it will be the fault of the staff.

I wonder how long these flights, assuming they eventuate, would remain monopolies? Presumably, if they are viable, they are also viable for BA, AF, and the myriad US airlines. With any competition at all I’d have to doubt their viability, which I understand is quite marginal anyway.

 

[moa999]

Agree it doesn't tell us much.
Also suggestion on other forums based on a Boeing release that the EK 777-8 order has been removed, which probably means Boeing doesn't actually have an aircraft to offer anyway, ignoring the likely delivery window.

I think the advantage for QF is that it has multiple routes it could operate with the aircraft - the US or Euro airlines really only have SYD and MEL so you're looking at an even smaller fleet and all the issues with that.

While this aircraft may be marginal for the routes, I think its a stepping stone.
I'd see a followup order for the 350neo-1000 when its released in the late 2020s which will have less comprimises, with the original 350s shifted to Asia as 333 replacements.
And then you've probably got another contest between a likely 350neo-1100/2000 vs the 777-9 for A380 replacements around the same time - obviously with an advantage to Airbus given coughpit compatability.

 

[smeacs]

Has anyone got any good public information regarding the EBA negotiations? or history, as lots of articles suggest 2015 wasnt so good for ht pilots? It is really hard understanding any company's EBA from an outsiders perspective and to genuinely appreciate both sides needs.

Currently fatigue is the publicly sprouted message but how to actually manage that, I have no idea.