Project Sunrise: A350 or 777X?

[Quickstatus]

As for jb747s comments on pilots rest, i wonder whether pilots need to have greater monitoring of sleep and alertness (much like a dead man switch of a train driver).

Some people can better cope with shift work and broken sleep in average places, whereas other need 10hrs in a quiet dark room, whether it's age, stress, genes etc

My VW Golf has a "fatigue detection" system. I dont think it monitors much other than time elapsed. It beeps and a little coffee cup icon appears. I can stop at a Lions club Driver Reviver. At 40,000 feet no amount of monitoring will help. You cant just stop off somewhere. (.....or maybe you can.....now that would be very newsworthy. I dont think it has happened in the commercial aviation world yet)

 

[jpp42]

You cant just stop off somewhere. (.....or maybe you can.....now that would be very newsworthy. I dont think it has happened in the commercial aviation world yet)

What exactly are you claiming has never occurred? Pilots diverting a plane because they were too tired to continue? I'd expect it has happened, but would be covered up with some other explanation.

 

[drron]

Has happened in Tassie

Sleeping pilot overshot destination | The New Daily

thenewdaily.com.au

Then in the US there was the flight when pilots said they were playing on their laptops when most believed they had slept.

Both pilots 'slept' for an HOUR as packed airliner flew on for 600 miles

Aviation chiefs in the US are investigating to see if the pilots of a passenger jet with 144 people on board fell asleep as it prepared to land.

www.dailymail.co.uk

And there are others.

FAA suspends pilots who fell asleep on Hawaii flight, overshooting airport

Pilots slept on Go flight to Hilo; airline fires them, FAA suspends them for careless and reckless operation

www.seattletimes.com

Plane overshoots Mumbai as both pilots go to sleep | India News - Times of India

India News: A major disaster was averted when an Air India Jaipur-Mumbai flight flew well past its destination with both its pilots fatigued and fast asleep in th

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

 

[Quickstatus]

Well, if not enough hours they wont take off, or take off but land somewhere closer to destination where the airline can pick up the passengers. EG DFW-SYD but enough hours to get to BNE but not to SYD so instead of cancelling the flight, fly DFW-BNE then someone else picks up the BNE-SYD.

My comment refer to the "extra fatigue monitoring" of pilots. If even there was such a thing and the monitoring goes off (for want of a better word), what should the response be?

That some aircraft have overshot the destination due to dozy pilots implies that maybe they should have landed earlier (or not taken off in the first place)

Diversions occur and is part of flying and airplane. Diversions are commonly due to weather enroute, weather or issues at destinations, medical reasons, fuel, mandated crew hours, aircraft technical issues. Fatigue? not heard of it. May have been labelled as something else.
Would fatigued pilots declare pan pan due to fatigue and divert somewhere?. I don't think it has ever happened. But thats my point. It would be very newsworthy if pilots declare fatigue and divert an aircraft and would certainly cause the public and regulators to take notice.

Pilots have diverted when one of the flight crew becomes incapacitated due to illness - say become unconscious. Fatigue is not as black and white but it can become evident when mistakes are made or pilots start nodding off while at the seat. Should pilots divert before it becomes worse, or before mistakes are made? Better that than have the finger pointed at them if some error is made..

 

[jb747]

Fatigue. You’ve heard of it lots of times. That word is not generally used though. Pilot error is the preferred term, and it appears in the accident reports. The 737 at Rostov is probably a pretty good example.

QF pilots were involved in a very long study back in the 2000-2005 period. Actual sleep was recorded by log and electronically over a period of months for each of the 450 pilots who took part. It had involvement from the union, the airline, CASA, and was run by one of the universities. It has been buried, as its results were not what was wanted. CASA and co are interested in the science, but only when it supports the conclusion they’ve already made. The intent of the study was not to stymie ULR plans, but to get the science ahead of the actual aircraft, so that their introduction would happen with already established requirements for crewing, crew rest installations, and rostering.

 

[Happy Trails]

Slightly old news, but some interesting detail and photos here:

Boeing 777X’s fuselage split dramatically during September stress test

When Boeing's new 777X suffered a ground test failure in early September, the damage was much more alarming than previously reported. It wasn't a cargo door blowout. It was worse.

www.seattletimes.com

Boeing has kept the details secret, but photos obtained by the Seattle Times show that the extent of the damage was greater than previously disclosed and earlier reports were wrong about crucial details.

The test plane is a complete write-off, its fuselage skin ripped wide open just behind the wing. A passenger door that blew out and fell to the factory floor was a secondary impact of the initial rupture, which was located far below the door.

 

[jb747]

Aircraft have a monitoring system, that sets off components of the master alarm system. Basically it looks for any activity in the coughpit. Basically pressing any button will cause the timer to restart. 20 minutes rings a bell.

But, this is not really the issue. As people become more and more tired, their reaction times increase, and the likelihood of incorrect responses increases. The only way to fix this is to get some sleep. That’s one reason why a single pilot aircraft will never work. If you only need him when things are already going wrong, your chances of getting any sort of viable response would have to be minimal.

 

[SeatBackForward]

Aircraft have a monitoring system, that sets off components of the master alarm system. Basically it looks for any activity in the coughpit. Basically pressing any button will cause the timer to restart. 20 minutes rings a bell.

Also known as the "Dead man's Switch"

 

[stm1sydney]

Good coverage here of that research into pilot fatigue conducted years ago:

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

A former Qantas pilot has warned his colleagues of the potential health effects of ultra-long range flying but predicted they will still agree to do the airline’s Project Sunrise flights.

After almost 33 years with Qantas including 11 years as an A380 captain, Richard Woodward officially retired this month, closing the curtains on a stellar career.

But his departure came with a warning to colleagues currently in negotiations with Qantas to operate ultra-long range services from Australia’s east coast to cities like New York and London.

He said detailed research undertaken by the airline in co-operation with the pilots’ association, universities and the Civil Aviation Safety Authority some years ago identified the disturbing effects of fatigue on a pilot’s performance.

“We found if the captain got less than five hours of sleep over an extended period of time, the crew’s ability to make, manage and maintain a plan of action was severely degraded,” said Mr Woodward.

“Similarly if the first officer got less than five hours of sleep then the crew’s ability to reflect on that plan and maybe alter outcomes was severely degraded because it’s the first officer’s job to monitor what the captain wants to do.”

He said if the crew was fatigued to that level, the consequential error rate doubled.

“A consequential error is an error that if left unchecked will have safety outcomes for the aeroplane,” Mr Woodward said.

.....

 

[OATEK]

Slightly old news, but some interesting detail and photos here:

Boeing 777X’s fuselage split dramatically during September stress test

When Boeing's new 777X suffered a ground test failure in early September, the damage was much more alarming than previously reported. It wasn't a cargo door blowout. It was worse.

www.seattletimes.com

Boeing has kept the details secret, but photos obtained by the Seattle Times show that the extent of the damage was greater than previously disclosed and earlier reports were wrong about crucial details.

The test plane is a complete write-off, its fuselage skin ripped wide open just behind the wing. A passenger door that blew out and fell to the factory floor was a secondary impact of the initial rupture, which was located far below the door.

Looks to be a nice big hole in the 777X - and of course no need to test again because it was so far beyond normal parameters??!!

 

[Inlander]

Common type will be a compelling factor in the choice. Qantas is dominate with Airbus in its international fleet so min cost to upgrade pilots to A350

 

[justinbrett]

Common type will be a compelling factor in the choice. Qantas is dominate with Airbus in its international fleet so min cost to upgrade pilots to A350

I’m not sure that’s a valid statement. They’ve got a sizeable B787 fleet which is growing, and they’ve got B747 pilots looking for new aircraft to fly. The A330 fleet is static so it’s not like those pilots are going to get moved to new aircraft.

I think QF has a foot in both camps and could go with either.

 

[DC3]

Common type will be a compelling factor in the choice. Qantas is dominate with Airbus in its international fleet so min cost to upgrade pilots to A350

I read an article which mentioned that the average age of the QF A380s and A330s is about 10 years and 12 years (could be higher, though), respectively. So beyond the next 10 years, or so, Airbus/Boeing ratio/numbers may well change.

 

[moa999]

I read an article which mentioned that the average age of the QF A380s and A330s is about 10 years and 12 years (could be higher, though), respectively.

More specifically the 10 333s are all 2003-05 deliveries
Also 4 older 332s, but I suspect the 321XLRs which the QF group has on order from 2025 will replace these.

 

[oz_mark]

More specifically the 10 333s are all 2003-05 deliveries
Also 4 older 332s, but I suspect the 321XLRs which the QF group has on order from 2025 will replace these.

I think it more likely the 321s will go to JQ, and the 787s will be handed down to QF....

 

[jb747]

I’m not sure that’s a valid statement. They’ve got a sizeable B787 fleet which is growing, and they’ve got B747 pilots looking for new aircraft to fly. The A330 fleet is static so it’s not like those pilots are going to get moved to new aircraft.

It’s certainly possible that some from the 330 and the 787 camps could be moved when the 747 retires. The 787 in particular is a relatively junior aircraft, and many of the 747 pilots are quite senior, and will have the contractural right to displace pilots junior to them. Even some on the 380 wouldn’t be safe.

I think QF has a foot in both camps and could go with either.

Type training really isn’t an issue. At this point probably something in the order of 70% of the pilots have flown types from both A and B. It’s only the first move that’s mind bending, after that it’s straightforward.

 

[OZDUCK]

With all the usual caveats about this particular source, I don't think a delay in any announcement or even a complete halt in the project would be a real surprise to anyone.

Is Qantas' Project Sunrise fading into the sunset? - Airline Ratings

Qantas’ Project Sunrise appears to be fading into the sunset with no decision now expected till at least February and indications that the business case doesn’t stack up at the moment. Project Sunrise calls for a 300 passenger aircraft operating non-stop between Sydney/Melbourne to London and...

www.airlineratings.com

 

[Altair]

Looks to be a nice big hole in the 777X - and of course no need to test again because it was so far beyond normal parameters??!!

This was to be the final static test on an airframe that was never going to fly.
Normally the test usually goes to the point of destruction so they do not need to do another test for later larger/heavier variants, the original 777 is a case in point. Interestingly Boeing did not test the 787 to destruction after it achieved the 150% pass mark.
If you look at how the aircraft is tested with weights, pulleys and the cabin pressurized (IIRC 10 times normal) you understand that this is not a normal operating parameter.
Because the test failed so close to the mark they do not need to redesign and test. The certification will be given after reinforcement of the failure points. This is what happened when the A380 also failed its test at 148% or 149% mark.

 

[oz_mark]

With all the usual caveats about this particular source, I don't think a delay in any announcement or even a complete halt in the project would be a real surprise to anyone.

Is Qantas' Project Sunrise fading into the sunset? - Airline Ratings

Qantas’ Project Sunrise appears to be fading into the sunset with no decision now expected till at least February and indications that the business case doesn’t stack up at the moment. Project Sunrise calls for a 300 passenger aircraft operating non-stop between Sydney/Melbourne to London and...

www.airlineratings.com

I do start to wonder if they would be better off waiting a few years for whatever innovations are up next.

 

[jb747]

I’ll eat my hat if it happens any time soon. AJ hasn’t ordered one aircraft for mainline yet, and I can’t see him changing now. The next CEO will have an enormous equipment replacement problem. The order books for the 320 are pretty well full, and supposedly those already ordered are for J. I’m sure Boeing would love to tie some deals to the MAX, but that’s an aircraft that I, personally, will be keeping well clear of. The proposed 797 appears to now be dead, and Boeing are now looking at some form of 767 update instead. Their lack of a new design in the smaller end of the market, coupled with the MCAS issues, have largely handed the market to Airbus with the various forms of 320.

Dixon was going for 787s for just about everything, with the 380s for their (niche) market. Joyce gave many of those 787s to J. Dixons plan doesn’t look all that bad now, as it would have had one aircraft type spread across both domestic and international, with just a few larger aircraft at the top end. There was a lot of flexibility in that. Now, the 380 fleet is too small, and there aren’t enough 787s. At this stage, committing to a plan, any plan would be nice. As it is we just get thought bubbles.