Project Sunrise: A350 or 777X?

[dajop]

I have a friend who flies the PER -LHR on a regular basis in J. He loves the direct flight and thinks Sunrise is the way to go whilst I think it sounds like a special kind of hell devised by a mathematical bean counter. Then again I miss the days of the stop over in HNL which was often an excuse for a day at the beach.

Of course the great irony is that his trip usually always starts in SYD and is often SYD -MEL - PER - LHR (and sometimes SYD -PER-LHR). He swears its a direct flight to LHR. Go figure. I'd prefer a shower in SIN.

I dunno about starting from SYD and doing that route via MEL, maybe SYD-PER-LHR would make more sense.

I think these long haul flights (from a passenger perspective) are more beneficial to those who struggle to get to sleep on planes than those who can fall asleep anywhere any time. In business class (SIN-EWR-SIN), I've found them extremely good from a rest perspective, you don't have to try to force yourself to sleep at a specific time dictated by when you will transit another airport. I sometimes struggle falling asleep on planes, even with lie flat seats, and hate just falling asleep and being woken an hour or two later for that transit point, and then taking ages to fall asleep again after taking off again. Even in Y+ (SIN-LAX-SIN), found it better than transitting NRT or ICN or the like.

For SYD-LHR route, I can see the non stop being superior to flights where you have a relatively short hop before a 6am arrival (such as SYD-DXB-LHR or LHR-SIN-SYD, but less advantageous compared to the sectors where you have a long hop before the 6am arrival (SYD-SIN-LHR, LHR-DXB-SYD). YMMV.

 

[levelnine]

These long flights are perfectly manageable in J. The real test is in Y, where the majority of people are on any flight.

 

[marki]

I have done all the classes to LHR including Y. You can manage everything but it is way more comfortable to be lying down

 

[juddles]

QF will fly the 737MAX (or whatever Boeing renames it) in the future. Expect a big order a few months after it begins flying again.

Can i hold you to a simple wager for that? Let's make it simple. If Qantas makes an order for the 737 MAX in the next two years, I will transfer you 20k QF points as you are my cousin. If they don't, you will do likewise.

And to get past renaming and similar scams, I am talking the airframes, not the software or naming.

 

[juddles]

These long flights are perfectly manageable in J. The real test is in Y, where the majority of people are on any flight.

But I think I read that they are getting 94% load factors on those PER-LHR flights. This is a spectacular figure. And includes Y.

 

[Pleb Status]

Can i hold you to a simple wager for that? Let's make it simple. If Qantas makes an order for the 737 MAX in the next two years, I will transfer you 20k QF points as you are my cousin. If they don't, you will do likewise.

And to get past renaming and similar scams, I am talking the airframes, not the software or naming.

I am confident, but not confident enough (or actually care enough) to put any cash towards it.

Let it be a moral victory to the winner however...

 

[henleybeach]

For a flight time of, say, 18:30 hours, you'll have another hour before, and 30 minutes after. So, the actual tour of duty would be 20 hours. Everybody is 'on' for the hour before, and the first hour of the flight. Then all on again for the last hour, plus that 30 minutes.

So...the total duty time is (20*2) + (3:30*2) = 47 hours.

Looking at it another way. 18:30 flight time - 2 hours (all on time) = 16:30. Divide that by two, and you get the potential bunk time per seat. So, 8:15 off duty, and 11:45 on.

It all depends upon the design of the crew rest, and whether crew actually get any sleep in it or not. A quote from a management person (some years ago, and referring to another aircraft), when there were complaints about that aircraft's crew rest...."CASA says we have to give you a crew rest. Nothing says you have to be able to sleep in it". I thought he was pretty harsh at the time, but he's probably a coughcat compared to the new breeds of management.

Sounds like management in rail, they make statements like that all the time. They are annoyed that regulators make them conform to legislation and rules and do the bare minimum. In our industry we need a break between the 3rd and 5th hour so they rostered our first break on this one particular shift after 4:59 min and that’s after starting at 230am in the morning . Their response is
“ it’s within the guidelines and a standards”
I would hate to see what these companies did without having these standards to abide to.

 

[levelnine]

But I think I read that they are getting 94% load factors on those PER-LHR flights. This is a spectacular figure. And includes Y.

Qantas regularly prices its MEL-PER-LHR price lower (by $10-100) than the MEL-SIN-LHR price.

Therefore:

1. Even Qantas know that people prefer to travel via SIN and set a premium! If the PER-LHR route were so popular, it would be priced higher than the SIN alternative.

2. They are filling the seats with budget-conscious Y travellers who are welded onto QF (ie people who are chasing/holding on to QF status but want to pay as little as possible).

 

[tdimdad]

These long flights are perfectly manageable in J. The real test is in Y, where the majority of people are on any flight.

Having done all my long-hauls in Y, I would detest 20 h flights and would simply not do it. Whichever re-routing is required, I'd book the trip with a stopover. Though, anecdotal evidence here suggests now that the long flights might be doable in J. I wonder who'd still be gullible enough to fall for a puppy-face-begpacker-pretty-please-'cause-I-want appeals...

 

[defurax]

My initial guess was that the 777X would win simply because QF could put 10 seats abreast in Y compared to 9 in the A350.

 

[Himeno]

Likely posted when it was first uploaded, but it's on topic.

 

[Happy Trails]

My initial guess was that the 777X would win simply because QF could put 10 seats abreast in Y compared to 9 in the A350.

Or, in a similar vein, whichever has the fewest toilets.

 

[jeremyaus]

It's direct if you live in Perth. If you live in Melbourne, why wouldn't you go any other way?

Yeah a bit strange to do that???
Maybe the status points??

 

[sevenfourtyseven]

A few interesting points in Alan Joyce's FY19 results address.

"We know that Boeing and Airbus have aircraft that can do the job, and we have their best-and-final offers on the table - including a compelling offer from Boeing to deal with any delay to the 777X."

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190822/pdf/447qcglk7jlr7x.pdf

 

[TomVexille]

A few interesting points in Alan Joyce's FY19 results address.

"We know that Boeing and Airbus have aircraft that can do the job, and we have their best-and-final offers on the table - including a compelling offer from Boeing to deal with any delay to the 777X."

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190822/pdf/447qcglk7jlr7x.pdf

Free 737-(whatever the new name is)

 

[jetset]

A few interesting points in Alan Joyce's FY19 results address.

"We know that Boeing and Airbus have aircraft that can do the job, and we have their best-and-final offers on the table - including a compelling offer from Boeing to deal with any delay to the 777X."

It is very interesting that Qantas specifies this. Joyce seem to be trying to emphasise that Boeing is still a contender even though we all know that Boeing is not currently developing the 777-8 and the entire 777X series remain paper planes.

I wonder, what compelling offer from Boeing has the 17,000km range required? The 777-200LR has the longest range but it is still 1200km short. Perhaps if it was severely weight restricted? I'm a bit dubious.

 

[docjames]

It is very interesting that Qantas specifies this. Joyce seem to be trying to emphasise that Boeing is still a contender even though we all know that Boeing is not currently developing the 777-8 and the entire 777X series remain paper planes.

I wonder, what compelling offer from Boeing has the 17,000km range required? The 777-200LR has the longest range but it is still 1200km short. Perhaps if it was severely weight restricted? I'm a bit dubious.

747-8i in low density config with revenue/cost subsidies......

 

[mel-world]

A quote from The Age story on Joyce's address:

"The airline is also in negotiations with pilots to achieve "productivity gains" it says are needed for the project to stack up financially."

I wonder what 'productivity gains' will be necessary to entice pilots (and the rest of the crew) to be on duty for 24 hours; up from the 18 hours flying time presently the maximum allowed by CASA?

Joyce is also quoted as saying: "I will only do it if it’s good for our shareholders and we think we’ll get there".

Passengers can fly in any class they like and are willing to pay for the convenience. They will not normally do the flight more than a few times a year, even on business. Crews will likely do the journey multiple times a year.

It will be interesting to see the results of the 'research flights' they plan to do during the delivery of the 787-900 aircraft. Can anyone tell me what is a 'electroencephalogram monitor' they plan to use to measure the pilot's reactions and brain functions during the flight?

 

[jb747]

My initial guess was that the 777X would win simply because QF could put 10 seats abreast in Y compared to 9 in the A350.

"The airline is also in negotiations with pilots to achieve "productivity gains" it says are needed for the project to stack up financially."

You could get a bigger productivity gain out of AJ than the entire body of long haul pilots.

It will be interesting to see the results of the 'research flights' they plan to do during the delivery of the 787-900 aircraft. Can anyone tell me what is a 'electroencephalogram monitor' they plan to use to measure the pilot's reactions and brain functions during the flight?

It will be some tame management pilots. The time of day will be chosen to minimise any issues. The entire aircraft will be available to have a sleep.

In other words it will be totally rigged, and a waste of very large amount of fuel.

 

[Pleb Status]

The 'compelling offer' from Boeing is just to keep Airbus honest now they are the only one with an aircraft which can do the job...