Project Sunrise: A350 or 777X?

[docjames]

Would a 787-10ER be feasible for Boeing to produce a variant (akin to the 747SP) in the timeline required? Or a 787-9ER? And subsidise the extra fuel cost?

 

[mflyer100]

Just to put it out there, in the last few weeks the question has gone from Boeing vs Airbus to a "YES-NO" (is it financially viable).

It might be a wild thought but perhaps Qantas could argue, if it's not economically right that they'll wait for the next gen aircraft? e.g a350neo (predicted in 2025-2027)

Or maybe qantas is just trying to squeeze every penny out of boeing or airbus before they make a decision as personally I think they will start these routes in the next few years.

 

[levelnine]

It might be a wild thought but perhaps Qantas could argue, if it's not economically right that they'll wait for the next gen aircraft? e.g a350neo (predicted in 2025-2027)

I get the impression from today's reports that Joyce is sowing the seeds for a potential backtrack (ie typical Qantas -- promise first, under-deliver later), claiming neither aircraft is suitable and postponing it for several years.

 

[jakeseven7]

I get the impression from today's reports that Joyce is sowing the seeds for a potential backtrack (ie typical Qantas -- promise first, under-deliver later), claiming neither aircraft is suitable and postponing it for several years.

Umm, sounds like good decision making if it doesn’t stack up financially...

 

[Pleb Status]

I get the impression from today's reports that Joyce is sowing the seeds for a potential backtrack (ie typical Qantas -- promise first, under-deliver later), claiming neither aircraft is suitable and postponing it for several years.

Maybe QF will find a way to blame their favourite whipping boy, PER Airport, for their failure to launch direct ULH flights from SYD!

 

[Daver6]

This is interesting. The proposed Boing stop gap measure.

Boeing to offer Qantas special 777X-9s for its Project Sunrise - Airline Ratings

Boeing is to offer Qantas its larger 777X-9 for delivery in 2021 to launch its Project Sunrise non-stop flights from New York and London to Sydney as an interim solution suggest sources in the US. The US manufacturer has slowed the development of its longer-ranged 777X-8 and will compensate...

www.airlineratings.com

 

[moa999]

It's interesting...
Presumably Boeing will need to offer the 779 at near 778 prices.
Might be great for pax.. 35" pitch in economy for example given they will have ample space to play with.

Then when the 350 gets re-engined (expected late 2020s) Qantas can buy that - it's likely to be the first aircraft that can do the flights without so many compromises,

Then the 779s can be refitted to replace the A380 routes.

 

[juddles]

This is interesting. The proposed Boing stop gap measure.

Boeing to offer Qantas special 777X-9s for its Project Sunrise - Airline Ratings

Boeing is to offer Qantas its larger 777X-9 for delivery in 2021 to launch its Project Sunrise non-stop flights from New York and London to Sydney as an interim solution suggest sources in the US. The US manufacturer has slowed the development of its longer-ranged 777X-8 and will compensate...

www.airlineratings.com

That is EXTREMELY interesting.

Boeing needs some good news (publicity), and Project Sunrise, although tiny in the scheme of things, would be a real boost if they got it, or another very public failure if they lose it.

From the QF side, an interim product, earlier than expected, and at a cost discounted out of Boeings pocket, they may get to give pax a stellar experience to really kick off the whole concept

 

[esseeeayeenn]

One thing I really don't understand is why QF won't put an F cabin on these ultra long haul aircraft.
If the B777-X9 can't fly the routes they are buying it for with a full 400 PAX why not acheive some of the reduction by putting in a few F seats they can sell at a premium, rather than filling the equivalent space with Y seats which will have to remain empty. I am sure the possibility of upgrades to F would also lure more people into paying for J fares on these flights. And surely these UHL routes are exactly where the extra comfort of F would be most sought after?

 

[juddles]

One thing I really don't understand is why QF won't put an F cabin on these ultra long haul aircraft.
If the B777-X9 can't fly the routes they are buying it for with a full 400 PAX why not acheive some of the reduction by putting in a few F seats they can sell at a premium, rather than filling the equivalent space with Y seats which will have to remain empty. I am sure the possibility of upgrades to F would also lure more people into paying for J fares on these flights. And surely these UHL routes are exactly where the extra comfort of F would be most sought after?

s e a n, I understand your point of view. This 777-X9 concept is something that I only learnt about tonight, but one thing I am absolutely sure about is that if such an aircraft is selected for Sunrise, it will NOT be decked out with physical seats (weight) that cannot be used. Weight savings will be paramount.

 

[Happy Trails]

Qantas non-stop London, New York flights on track for 2026

The Red Roo’s first ultra-long-range A350 flights are expected to lift off in the back half of 2026.

www.executivetraveller.com

"Joyce confirmed that current thinking will see a first class cabin on the globe-striding jets, although he wouldn’t drawn on the size of that cabin – if it would be a modest four suites or represent a more sizeable slice of the pointy end."

 

[Himeno]

One thing I really don't understand is why QF won't put an F cabin on these ultra long haul aircraft.
If the B777-X9 can't fly the routes they are buying it for with a full 400 PAX why not acheive some of the reduction by putting in a few F seats they can sell at a premium, rather than filling the equivalent space with Y seats which will have to remain empty. I am sure the possibility of upgrades to F would also lure more people into paying for J fares on these flights. And surely these UHL routes are exactly where the extra comfort of F would be most sought after?

Where did you get that idea from?
Qantas has always said 300 pax over 4 classes for project sunrise.

 

[jetset]

This is interesting. The proposed Boing stop gap measure.

Boeing to offer Qantas special 777X-9s for its Project Sunrise - Airline Ratings

Boeing is to offer Qantas its larger 777X-9 for delivery in 2021 to launch its Project Sunrise non-stop flights from New York and London to Sydney as an interim solution suggest sources in the US. The US manufacturer has slowed the development of its longer-ranged 777X-8 and will compensate...

www.airlineratings.com

That is very interesting. From the article it seems that Boeing is proposing a weight restricted 777-9 with palletized auxiliary fuel tanks as some sort of 'loaner' with compensation for lost payload before the 777-8 becomes available. It sounds like a somewhat desperate proposal and sits in contrast to Qantas's requirements for financial viability.

 

[levelnine]

Umm, sounds like good decision making if it doesn’t stack up financially...

Probably shouldn't have gone around making big promises before doing the sums. Doesn't sound like prudent long-term management to me.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

Where did you get that idea from?
Qantas has always said 300 pax over 4 classes for project sunrise.

From the fact that there is no F cabin on the 787s flying PER <=> LHR.
Looking at their actions not their words.
Joyce's comments about an F cabin on project sunrise were made at the same time as his comments about gyms and bars and dormitories below decks.
And how long did that fantasy last?
However I will be very happy if I am proved wrong.

 

[DavidFlynn]

One thing I really don't understand is why QF won't put an F cabin on these ultra long haul aircraft.

Qantas has several times said the Sunrise jets will have first class, I've specifically raised this a few times at pressers with Alan Joyce, and indeed at yesterday's financials he mentioned they have 'high level designs' of what the new cabins will look like and later cited first as part of that. Personally I'm not expecting a large F cabin but I doubt QF would consider Sunrise sans first, as we are talking about premium ex-SYD routes to London and New York for starters, plus the fact that Sunrise jets will also need to fit into the regular network such as SYD-LAX.

 

[moa999]

From the fact that there is no F cabin on the 787s flying PER <=> LHR.

The 787 is a smaller aircraft.

 

[Himeno]

From the fact that there is no F cabin on the 787s flying PER <=> LHR.
Looking at their actions not their words.
Joyce's comments about an F cabin on project sunrise were made at the same time as his comments about gyms and bars and dormitories below decks.
And how long did that fantasy last?
However I will be very happy if I am proved wrong.

The 787 is essentially a 767 replacement with longer range. How many airlines put long haul F on their 767s?
The 777X is a 747 replacement.

You'd be better of questioning why Premium Economy on the 787s and not the A330s then claiming they'd put no F on a new long range, 747 size aircraft when they've said repeatedly for almost 2 years that they will.
I doubt a sunrise aircraft will have 14 seat F cabins like they used to have on the 747s and currently have on the A380s, but they will have an F cabin of between 4 and 10 seats.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

I am not going to rubbish people such as @Himeno or @DavidFlynn who choose to believe what Alan Joyce says at pressers.
Although I wonder if they still expect a dormitory under the decks on the project sunrise aircraft.
But I don't think it is entirely unreasonable of me to be cynical given the B789 layout.
Yes as @moa999 points out the B789 is smaller than the B777X.
But airlines such as Etihad have had F cabins on smaller aircraft.
With Qantas' record of over promising and under delivering, I won't believe it until it happens.

 

[DC3]

…..

I am not going to rubbish people such as @Himeno or @DavidFlynn who choose to believe what Alan Joyce says at pressers ..

But then you do. Yes?

… Although I wonder if they still expect a dormitory under the decks on the project sunrise aircraft ...