Qantas A380 reliability issues creeping up again?

[RealtimeY]

It looks like VH-OQL is still parked at AUH and has been since March(?). Is it normal for refurbishing to take this long?

 

[evanb]

It looks like VH-OQL is still parked at AUH and has been since March(?). Is it normal for refurbishing to take this long?

D-check, wing spar checks plus refurbishment. A380 D-check alone are taking 5 to 6 months.

 

[markis10]

It looks like VH-OQL is still parked at AUH and has been since March(?). Is it normal for refurbishing to take this long?

There are limited slots for all sorts of maintenance worldwide, especially A380s, Qantas need to fit in where there are holes.

 

[RSD]

There are limited slots for all sorts of maintenance worldwide, especially A380s, Qantas need to fit in where there are holes.

Or develop their own inhouse capability...

 

[markis10]

Or develop their own inhouse capability...

Not going to happen, their fleet is too small and location does not suit MRO work, which is why AVV and SYD closed up shop.

 

[evanb]

Not going to happen, their fleet is too small and location does not suit MRO work, which is why AVV and SYD closed up shop.

Easy to under appreciate how important scale is in contemporary MRO work, and sometimes fleet specific. A huge chunk of A380 heavy maintenance is being done at a handful of spots globally, AUH, MNL, DRS, XMN, etc. Even KE, who have a massive MRO business themselves, are sending their A380s to MNL for D-checks.

@markis10 rightly points out the small fleet, so QF would need to bring in a ton of outside work to generate sufficient economies of scale to compete with MNL and XMN (who are the biggest A380 players). However, it's not going to be able to compete for that given wages in places like MNL and XMN.

 

[muppet]

Not going to happen, their fleet is too small and location does not suit MRO work, which is why AVV and SYD closed up shop.

An A380 brings in what … $300-400m a year in revenue … having a bunch of them sitting in the desert during the largest expansion in demand for long-haul travel in 50 years seems like a profitable option.

But QF is QF so you’re right, will never happen.

 

[elanshin]

An A380 brings in what … $300-400m a year in revenue … having a bunch of them sitting in the desert during the largest expansion in demand for long-haul travel in 50 years seems like a profitable option.

But QF is QF so you’re right, will never happen.

There's all sorts of other logistical challenges with setting up an a380 shop in Australia without even factoring cost. We're at the cough end of the world so parts would also take longer and cost more to reach us.

Iirc QF does have a330 shop and 737 shop for moderate work in Australia. Although some work is also sent overseas.

 

[evanb]

An A380 brings in what … $300-400m a year in revenue … having a bunch of them sitting in the desert during the largest expansion in demand for long-haul travel in 50 years seems like a profitable option.

But QF is QF so you’re right, will never happen.

Firstly, they aren't any just sitting in the desert. For some reason people have this idea that the aircraft that have been going to AUH for maintenance have been there the whole time. OQL, the aircraft in question returned to service from storage in March 2023 and operated on revenue services for a year before its D-check came due. C and D-checks intervals are fixed - it's due when it's due! Other heavy maintenance checks like the wing spar checks are also required within regulatory intervals. Do you really think that airlines can just skip these checks?

Other than OQC which has known problems and might never return to service, almost all others have gone to AUH from revenue service. A/B didn't as they'd already had their D-checks, but G through L have all flown for a year or two after coming back from storage before they went to AUH.

 

[moa999]

a bunch

Don't think two is a bunch.
You might also want to check how many A380s EK has yet to return to service.

 

[evanb]

Don't think two is a bunch.
You might also want to check how many A380s EK has yet to return to service.

FWIW, Qantas have returned 9 of 10 (or 12 if you include the retired birds). Lufthansa: 7 of 8 (or 14). EK have 22x A380s parked ...

BA and Qatar got lucky as their fleet is younger and hasn't come through their 2nd D-checks yet, but they're coming. That's going to be be carnage, especially for BA given their lack of available redundancy. Word on the street is that they're begging AA to pick up trans Atlantic capacity for them!! 1st aircraft went to MNL at the end of November, and they'll have 4 more go in for D-checks in the next year. Will be down 3x A380 at once at one point! Already had to cut DFW to cover, more to come!

 

[Sprucegoose]

Or develop their own inhouse capability...

Well, there's an interesting thought Ms Hudson..........

 

[evanb]

Well, there's an interesting thought Ms Hudson..........

Please explain the economics of A380 D-checks in Australia. For a 50,000 man hour 12 year D-check ...

 

[Sprucegoose]

Not going to happen, their fleet is too small and location does not suit MRO work, which is why AVV and SYD closed up shop.

I would like to see a business case before accepting your conclusion. Prima facie, there are a few 380s that fly to Australia, and the consensus is that there is a global shortage of skilled technicians. There would be a queue that would move from the ME and MNL for the right package.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Please explain the economics of A380 D-checks in Australia. For a 50,000 man hour 12 year D-check ...

See my last post. It's more than a QF in-house deal. There could well be a case where you could build a local capability, service QF, and supplement capacity with a few others. It may be the cost of not doing it rather than vice versa.

 

[jase05]

See my last post. It's more than a QF in-house deal. There could well be a case where you could build a local capability, service QF, and supplement capacity with a few others. It may be the cost of not doing it rather than vice versa.

With the high cost of wages in Australia I’d say zero chance of offering a competitive price

 

[RSD]

See my last post. It's more than a QF in-house deal. There could well be a case where you could build a local capability, service QF, and supplement capacity with a few others. It may be the cost of not doing it rather than vice versa.

And given that there is almost always a QF A380 in AUH these days it would seem that there would be about enough QF A380 work to keep a small crew busy here.

 

[Sprucegoose]

And given that there is almost always a QF A380 in AUH these days it would seem that there would be about enough QF A380 work to keep a small crew busy here.

Additionally, keeping in-house capability becomes more strategically important if there are global or regional conflicts.

 

[Sprucegoose]

With the high cost of wages in Australia I’d say zero chance of offering a competitive price

That's only one aspect of the cost base (and only a minor part of the value proposition). Our direct labour costs would be on a par with the States', I would say, in any case.

 

[RSD]

That's only one aspect of the cost base (and only a minor part of the value proposition). Our direct labour costs would be on a par with the States', I would say, in any case.

For QF the fuel savings for a return empty trip to AUH would amount to quite a bit - and it is two extra days saved.