Qantas A380 reliability issues creeping up again?

[Sprucegoose]

100% they'd still be sitting awaiting their D-check. Even LH and EK are running well behind on A380 D-checks. No idea how people expect QF to somehow jump the queue.

Does QF do any D checks in LAX? I know they use Abu Dhabi

 

[evanb]

Yes, I read your article and agree that the pandemic caused significant disruptions for Qantas. It drastically reduced its long-haul fleet, and its various challenges in returning aircraft to service have impacted its capacity. On top of that, the need for heavy maintenance and refurbishments (a 380 D check takes 100 days) has further complicated this process, impacting the airline's capacity to meet surging demand. However, as these cycles are completed, fleet availability is expected to stabilise, highlighting the importance of strategic planning and flexibility in fleet management.

This position is expected to improve as more aircraft are returned to service and new deliveries are added to operations.

What is the textbook's response to a Black Swan event, and how do you predict demand/growth?

Thanks for reading

Yeah, it certainly was a Black Swan event but there's a strong argument to be made that QF took an unnecessarily conservative approach. That certainly affected their recovery. But we're well beyond the recovery and beyond them being unlucky in terms of some D-check timings.

But counterfactuals are important. Imagine they didn't place A380s in storage and instead prioritise D-checks during COVID. What we'd have seen was a dramatic over capacity in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic and would have bled cash. That could have taken them down. They bled money not flying, but imagine how much worse it would have been flying half empty A380s.

Similarly, had they gone and picked up more B787s they'd have been faced with significant cash outflows in the face of a poor financing environment. Had the poor environment persisted a year longer that could have been catastrophic.

 

[Sprucegoose]

No idea how people expect QF to somehow jump the queue.

Maintenance contracts would be subject to negotiation and renegotiation. COVID significantly disrupted these processes, leading to a backlog in maintenance schedules and creating a “queue” for these essential services. and symptomatic of the COVID-19 supply chain issues.

 

[evanb]

I think one thing you didn't take into account when purely looking at the a330-200 was how many of these were not meant to be in international service and have now been pushed into Int'l service. (The so called domestic planes).

That's how they've managed to reasonably keep the capacity in line from losing the capacity. They've pulled a lot more a330 off transcon to service the Int'l routes. The a330s are also regularly having problems and we watch them pull a plane that was going to PER over to cover.

Also whilst the fleet in a380 has only officially declined by 2, in practice we've never had more than 8 frames active post covid. At its worst it was 6 for quite a long period of time.

This may have been why there's a discrepancy between your analytics and what people's anecdotes feel like.

The analysis I posted counts the fleet availability on a day by day basis. Measured number of days per fleet type by month versus maximum.

I'm not sure the A330s have been pulled from Transcon that much. We've seen a lot less Trans Tasman though, but the point that I was making is should they have been on those routes to begin with? There's some evidence to suggest that it their utilisation on these routes before the pandemic were somewhat contrived. How Qantas is getting more long haul flying out of the A330-200s

Point being, things aren't static. Just because they did use them in some way, doesn't mean that it should maintain that way.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Thanks for reading

Yeah, it certainly was a Black Swan event but there's a strong argument to be made that QF took an unnecessarily conservative approach. That certainly affected their recovery. But we're well beyond the recovery and beyond them being unlucky in terms of some D-check timings.

But counterfactuals are important. Imagine they didn't place A380s in storage and instead prioritise D-checks during COVID. What we'd have seen was a dramatic over capacity in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic and would have bled cash. That could have taken them down. They bled money not flying, but imagine how much worse it would have been flying half empty A380s.

Similarly, had they gone and picked up more B787s they'd have been faced with significant cash outflows in the face of a poor financing environment. Had the poor environment persisted a year longer that could have been catastrophic.

Yes, those are very good points. They underscore the skills required to survive and prosper in the airline business or any business, for that matter.

 

[elanshin]

100% they'd still be sitting awaiting their D-check. Even LH and EK are running well behind on A380 D-checks. No idea how people expect QF to somehow jump the queue.

Agree although i think you need to update your article about the 380s

Just reading more of the article.

As of Aug 24, 9 of 10 aircraft have returned to service

In August it was 7/10 when one returned from AUH. That was why reliability on the skeleton 380 schedule was a bit more reliable. Previously it was operating 6 frames from about apr 24 or so.

The net result is that anywhere between 10% and 30% of the A380 fleet has been in maintenance since they began returning to service. In addition to D-checks this also accounts for C-checks (e.g. 4x have received C-checks in Abu Dhabi in 2024).

I would say it was operating at 7/10 frames consistently post covid once they started coming back online with an unrefurbished OQL in the mix. (Only went to AUH in Feb24). They also operated a period of only 6 a380s which is almost certainly the reason SYD -JNB launch on the 380 got pushed back.

 

[evanb]

Does QF do any D checks in LAX? I know they use Abu Dhabi

No, all A380 D-checks are outsourced. What's noticeable is that globally A380 D-checks have been very concentrated among a few MROs. We're seeing BA, LH, QF, EY, EK use the same few MROs for C and D-checks on A380s. Suspect this is because the aircraft became a bit of a niche pretty quickly.

That said, LAX maintenance has been busy as QF rotate the A380s and B787s through LAX for their base maintenance. If you look at MEL-LAX schedules (and to a lesser extend SYD-LAX) you'll notice that at least one B787 or A380 spends a few days in LAX every week for base maintenance.

 

[Sprucegoose]

They also operated a period of only 6 a380s which is almost certainly the reason SYD -JNB launch on the 380 got pushed back.

To be honest, I am surprised QF added a 380 to this route. Time will tell of course.

 

[evanb]

Agree although i think you need to update your article about the 380s

Just reading more of the article.


In August it was 7/10 when one returned from AUH. That was why reliability on the skeleton 380 schedule was a bit more reliable. Previously it was operating 6 frames from about apr 24 or so.


I would say it was operating at 7/10 frames consistently post covid once they started coming back online with an unrefurbished OQL in the mix. (Only went to AUH in Feb24). They also operated a period of only 6 a380s which is almost certainly the reason SYD -JNB launch on the 380 got pushed back.

That's literally what the data shows! A380 has maintained 60% availability in May, June, July and August. While C, K, L have all been out for that time, other frames have rotated through for C-checks.

The point that I was making was that 7/10 were in the fleet, however availability was only 60% as one kept rotating through for C-checks.

And yes, haven't updated for September, but will update now

 

[Sprucegoose]

No, all A380 D-checks are outsourced. What's noticeable is that globally A380 D-checks have been very concentrated among a few MROs

There must only be a handful of providers. I expect EK must do most of their D checks at home—and the balance in LTP in MNL?

MNL must not have great capacity, given that it is space-constrained.

 

[elanshin]

That's literally what the data shows! A380 has maintained 60% availability in May, June, July and August. While C, K, L have all been out for that time, other frames have rotated through for C-checks.

The point that I was making was that 7/10 were in the fleet, however availability was only 60% as one kept rotating through for C-checks.

And yes, haven't updated for September, but will update now

Some of the text portion just needs updating since the quoted text was contradictory was all.

 

[Sprucegoose]

The point that I was making was that 7/10 were in the fleet, however availability was only 60% as one kept rotating through for C-checks.

What is your assumption regarding the C check cycle? Would they occur every 18-24 months and take up to 21 days to complete?

 

[evanb]

What is your assumption regarding the C check cycle? It occurs every 18-24 months and takes up to 21 days to complete.

There are no assumptions! That's a generalisation for background. We estimated availability by actual C/D check by utilising ADS-B data knowing where they send aircraft for the C/D checks. A330s in MNL or BNE, B787s in HKG or at base, A380s at AUH, etc.

The point about the background is that the pandemic really messed with these resulting in many delays C/D checks and in some cases extending time taken for them.

 

[evanb]

There must only be a handful of providers. I expect EK must do most of their D checks at home—and the balance in LTP in MNL?

MNL must not have great capacity, given that it is space-constrained.

Most EK A380 heavy maintenance is outsourced. Their fleet is so big they use multiple providers for C/Ds including LTP in MNL, and GAMECO at CAN.

 

[evanb]

Some of the text portion just needs updating since the quoted text was contradictory was all.

That text wasn't quote from the article. In the analyis we sperate storage from maintenance, so the analysis focus first on RTS which is up to 9/10. And then separately on maintenance. The analysis highlights that there are 3 aircraft in D-check, but that availability is only 60% as a 4th has cycled through C-checks since May.

Data was last updated for end of Aug, however it's now close to 70% availability as the most recent C-check cycle ended when OQD returned from C-check on 30 Aug. This will reflect when we update.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Most EK A380 heavy maintenance is outsourced. Their fleet is so big they use multiple providers for C/Ds including LTP in MNL, and GAMECO at CAN.

Not for too much longer

Emirates to build new US$ 950 million engineering facility

The multi-million dollar, ultra-modern engineering facility will be built at Dubai World Central (DWC), will be the largest and most advanced of its kind.

www.emirates.com

 

[evanb]

Not for too much longer

Emirates to build new US$ 950 million engineering facility

The multi-million dollar, ultra-modern engineering facility will be built at Dubai World Central (DWC), will be the largest and most advanced of its kind.

www.emirates.com

I think you're massively over interpreting that article. Scale-wise, it'll enable them to be self-sufficient but whether they eventually develop that capacity and utilise it remains to be seen. It takes a lot more than just building flashy facilities.

One of the challenges for the A380 ha been the concentration of the Ds and the time they're taking due to the scale of the aircraft. Most operators don't have the scale to do that and then if you do you'll have excess capacity for 11 years unless you get outside business. But there's not that much outside business ... part of the outsourcing needs is to smooth the cyclicality.

Airlines are far more interested in utilising internal capacity for line and base maintenance, and the way that new generation aircraft are going more of the heavy maintenance tasks are being subsumed into a more varied pattern of base maintenance. This means less time in C checks and larger intervals in D checks.

 

[OATEK]

I just don't see that QF A380 reliability is all that different to pre-Covid, where the QF delays/cancellations thread delivered regular issues for our consumption. And I don't find their service much worse than pre-Covid, where it was somewhere between adequate and poor on most of my trips in 5 or so years up to 2020. I was avoiding them as much as possible in that period, only using them to connect to alternative carriers in Asia (esp. AY). I am on QF1 in about 10 days (to connect in SIN with EK), and have low expectations, but no lower than pre-pandemic.