Qantas A380 reliability issues creeping up again?

[serfty]

AFFer, @Bundy Bear , is on this flight. He posted on FB that Qf was sending him to a hotel for the night.

"Today's" QF11 has been cancelled. @Bundy Bear has lost their shadow ...

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

"Today's" QF11 has been cancelled. @Bundy Bear has lost their shadow ...

Good lord. I am already resigning myself to roulette for QF 11 next month. I got lucky in July after it had a rough June, but I now also have to book another trip later this month for an important work meeting. Sad to say but I'll be booking away from Qantas simply because of this. I'm certain I'm not the only one. This is what reputation damage caused by chronically poor operational reliability looks like in practice. A pity.

 

[Himeno]

They have also wetleased finnair for SIN and BKK

They leased the AY aircraft for SYD-BKK and SYD-SIN because they converted 2 A330s to freighters during covid, then didn't have enough aircraft to operate what they wanted to once demand returned.

 

[Melburnian1]

The oldest 332 is 22, youngest 12, oldest 380 is 16, youngest 12 and that's with the Covid downtime. All the 787s are under 7.

VH-OJA, the 747 at HARS was 26 when she was finally retired, and plenty of the 747s flew towards the mid-20s.

The narrow body mainline domestic fleet is probably the oldest it has been (oldest 738 22, but youngest 9) but that's just a function of the lump of deliveries post Ansetts collapse, and that's going to change pretty quickly as 321XLRs start arriving from 2025 (think April 2025 for the first)

A good attempt at "putting lipstick on...", but although not a strictly 'apples for apples' comparison as some foreign airlines have zero or not much of a domestic operation, there's no getting away from how QFd and QFi have fleets that are older than those of many competitors.

It also begs the question why QFi has so many problems with its A380s (and B789s) when by and large, at least when the aircraft visit Australia, foreign airlines seem to have fewer difficulties.

 

[downloadingdata]

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The oldest 332 is 22, youngest 12, oldest 380 is 16, youngest 12 and that's with the Covid downtime. All the 787s are under 7.

VH-OJA, the 747 at HARS was 26 when she was finally retired, and plenty of the 747s flew towards the mid-20s.

The narrow body mainline domestic fleet is probably the oldest it has been (oldest 738 22, but youngest 9) but that's just a function of the lump of deliveries post Ansetts collapse, and that's going to change pretty quickly as 321XLRs start arriving from 2025 (think April 2025 for the first)

Ah my bad, my question was more around average fleet age. I think by the time the jumbos retired, the a330s and a380s would have been rather young? There was probably a bit more slack in the fleet given the lesser maintenance requirements?

 

[moa999]

my question was more around average fleet age

My point was average is a bad measurement.

But Qantas has kept aircraft for longer in the past. And versus some airlines based in other countries the reason partially comes down to tax treatment on aircraft depreciation.

In the 2000s Dixon used to love using a flat average as it was going down - but that was because Qantas was buying lots of (relatively) cheap 737s, whilst the more expensive 767s and 747s were ageing.

The last 10-15yrs has seen the reverse issue, with Covid, where aircraft production also mostly halted, not helping.

Possibly some form of capacity adjusted average might be more meaningful.
I'd think today Qantas mainline might be a bit higher than its long-term average but not drastically so.

 

[RSD]

"Today's" QF11 has been cancelled. @Bundy Bear has lost their shadow ...

I'm guessing that they have "consolidated" today's passengers onto yesterday's flight which is now departing today - but obviously that affects flights coming back as well as there will be one less of those too...

Post automatically merged: Oct 8, 2024

Good lord. I am already resigning myself to roulette for QF 11 next month. I got lucky in July after it had a rough June, but I now also have to book another trip later this month for an important work meeting. Sad to say but I'll be booking away from Qantas simply because of this. I'm certain I'm not the only one. This is what reputation damage caused by chronically poor operational reliability looks like in practice. A pity.

Unfortunately that is what flying Qantas has become - and QF11 is effectively their "flagship" flight to the U.S. - or it was...

If QF11's reliability gets any worse then it will be right up there with the Titanic!

 

[elanshin]

It also begs the question why QFi has so many problems with its A380s (and B789s) when by and large, at least when the aircraft visit Australia, foreign airlines seem to have fewer difficulties.

Foreign airlines are not likely to be flying a plane with issues to an outport that is far from their base of operations and be stuck in a hard to service port.

Also likely that outside of QR (and QR isn't going to put their coughpier planes on the Aus route) most of the airlines flying to Australia aren't stretched on flying frames right now, so they're likely getting proper maintenance.

 

[OATEK]

I'm guessing that they have "consolidated" today's passengers onto yesterday's flight which is now departing today - but obviously that affects flights coming back as well as there will be one less of those too...

Post automatically merged: Oct 8, 2024

Unfortunately that is what flying Qantas has become - and QF11 is effectively their "flagship" flight to the U.S. - or it was...

If QF11's reliability gets any worse then it will be right up there with the Titanic!

Not sure I understand the allusion to the Titanic, but there is no doubt that QF seems to live in a perpetually over-committed state.

 

[RSD]

Not sure I understand the allusion to the Titanic, but there is no doubt that QF seems to live in a perpetually over-committed state.

Titanic had a trip reliability of 0% - although it did at least manage to depart on time!

 

[jase05]

although it did at least manage to depart on time!

At least QF gets you there eventually though

 

[cove]

Will @Bundy Bear make it to the Chicago marathon in time and not be jet lagged?

 

[AIRwin]

Titanic had a trip reliability of 0% - although it did at least manage to depart on time!

Its departure was almost delayed due to a fire?

 

[Bundy Bear]

Will @Bundy Bear make it to the Chicago marathon in time and not be jet lagged?

Lets get there first no jetlag 2nd
I was over jetlag in 3 days going to New York
I have to come back the same way next Monday

 

[evanb]

They leased the AY aircraft for SYD-BKK and SYD-SIN because they converted 2 A330s to freighters during covid, then didn't have enough aircraft to operate what they wanted to once demand returned.

This is somewhat didactic. The pandemic created a cargo boom and airlines are earning a lot more from cargo now than pre-pandemic. Similarly the now orphan B767F was likely suffering from a high fixed cost base. Converting the A330s was a good option rather than waiting for or competing for slim pickings in the freighter market.

At the same time, networks and capacity evolves. While they're net unchanged in A330s now they're getting far more medium/long haul fleet time out of the A330s with far less trans-Tasman and somewhat less domestic flying. Similarly, JQ have taken over a lot of medium/long haul flying with the A321LRs taking over the B787 Bali flying, redeploying B787s into Asia.

The narrative of Qantas's capacity shortage is tired. Yet, group level international capacity was up 0.4% and 4% over the last 12 and 6 months compared to the same periods pre-pandemic! Yet, total market capacity (all carriers combined) is actually down 7% and 3% down over the same periods!

 

[Cheatah]

This is somewhat didactic. The pandemic created a cargo boom and airlines are earning a lot more from cargo now than pre-pandemic. Similarly the now orphan B767F was likely suffering from a high fixed cost base. Converting the A330s was a good option rather than waiting for or competing for slim pickings in the freighter market.

At the same time, networks and capacity evolves. While they're net unchanged in A330s now they're getting far more medium/long haul fleet time out of the A330s with far less trans-Tasman and somewhat less domestic flying. Similarly, JQ have taken over a lot of medium/long haul flying with the A321LRs taking over the B787 Bali flying, redeploying B787s into Asia.

The narrative of Qantas's capacity shortage is tired. Yet, group level international capacity was up 0.4% and 4% over the last 12 and 6 months compared to the same periods pre-pandemic! Yet, total market capacity (all carriers combined) is actually down 7% and 3% down over the same periods!

International capacity up compared to pre pandemic? With the entire 747 fleet gone ?

ASKs for 2H24 45,467M as per latest results, surely 2019 or even 1H 2020 must be much higher for international ?

 

[RooFlyer]

The narrative of Qantas's capacity shortage is tired.

Maybe so, but I think the travelling public are a bit tired of being screwed around with cancellations and schedule changes due to the lack of serviceable airframes, and capacity.

Propping up international routes with A330s with airframes previously on domestic routes brings its own set of gripes.

 

[evanb]

International capacity up compared to pre pandemic? With the entire 747 fleet gone ?

ASKs for 2H24 45,467M as per latest results, surely 2019 or even 1H 2020 must be much higher for international ?

Entire 747 fleet? It was 5 aircraft remaining in March 2020 and their retirement was accelerated a whole 6 months. Point is that fleet has evolved - that was always the plan.

You're somewhat missing the point - that market level capacity is down a lot and Qantas (airline and group) have returned capacity quicker than the market as a whole. Group international ASK 2H 2024 45,467 is higher than 2H 2019 48,839. Difference is that US capacity is down and been shifted to Asia, hence lower ASK. Figures originally quoted are seat counts.

BITRE don't publish ASKs, so seat counts is only measure that can compare QF and market capacity.

 

[evanb]

Maybe so, but I think the travelling public are a bit tired of being screwed around with cancellations and schedule changes due to the lack of serviceable airframes, and capacity.

Propping up international routes with A330s with airframes previously on domestic routes brings its own set of gripes.

So just vibes? Is there any evidence of systematic changes in reliability?

Propping up? Or testament to an adaptable fleet?

 

[RooFlyer]

So just vibes? Is there any evidence of systematic changes in reliability?

Propping up? Or testament to an adaptable fleet?

I’m just going via what’s been written in this thread and a few other reports. If it’s always been like this then I guess it’s less remarkable.

Sure an adaptable fleet. Problem is they are ‘adapting’ trans con A330s for transcon B737s.

I know we are a special subset of flyers here on AFF but it is kind of annoying when you book a flight with the particular air frame and it gets subbed out or delayed or cancelled. That said, I need to come clean in that being a keen QR flyer, their subbing out of QSuite birds is notorious and the diversity in their fleet means you never really know what might be coming. I nearly always fly out of Adelaide and that seems to be immune to the substitution thing.