Qantas Cancels 787-9 order

[lovestotravel]

Get back to me when there is actually a 787-8 or 787-9 flying with a Red Roo on the tail

Not saying I am right or wrong or vice-versa but I just don't see it happening. Of course QF have access to ALL the data and are doing what the board wants to do.. But I am pretty sure (from this arm-chair) that that future involved an orange star.

Let's move forward to 2016ish.....QF will have a handful of 747's and 12xA380's flying around....

Do they then expect to suddenly introduce up to 50 787-9s and suddenly everyone will start flying them again ?

In the meantime people have flown with SQ/EK/EY and couldn't care about QF anymore.

 

[casanovawa]

Agree with much of what you say The Rok, but nearly every CEO and management team that have taken over the helm of all the global Fortune 500 companies (and much smaller ones) from way back were probably a bunch of smart cookies with all sorts of qualifications and access to all the confidential information... It doesn't stop them from choosing the wrong options or simply from being lousy understanders/motivators of their workforces or the public... Without even going into putting their own pay packets based on short term results ahead of the investors and the customers interests and other dodgy motivations...

So while they no doubt have a bit more to work with than us plebs, they are not the holy of holies and immune from a bit second guessing... It could just be their communication strategy is letting down all their other good work, but sheesh its hard to be positive about QF sometimes...

 

[harvyk]

QF management is far from perfect, but there is no doubt that they understand the economics of running an airline better than do you, or I, or most of us here.

Don't 100% agree with this, customers standing on the outside can frequently have far more insight into what is really going on in an industry or company than some management. Sometimes management are not always doing what's best for the company, but instead what's best for them.

That's not to say that this is what's happening here, but a simple blanket them = good, us = bad doesn't quite pan out that way...

 

[ajw373]

Probably because AJ keeps talking up the death of QFi, and because they have posted their first loss since 1995.

The question was specifically as to how the deferment of the 787-9's could in any way shape or form be construed as the death of QFi when the 787-9's were not (initially anyway) going to QFi. The only time Qantas talked about 787's in their own colours it was as domestic 767 replacements.

Though yes the way AJ talks about QFi it is safe to assume that it is in real trouble and needs to find its OWN niche place in the market. However that place is not an airline that can take everyone from anywhere in Aus to anywhere in the world at the lowest price providing 1st class service to all AND being a benevolent society for the benefit of the staff, unions and the country, despite many on this board and elsewhere thinking that is exactly what Qantas should be.

 

[markis10]

Get back to me when there is actually a 787-8 or 787-9 flying with a Red Roo on the tail

Not saying I am right or wrong or vice-versa but I just don't see it happening. Of course QF have access to ALL the data and are doing what the board wants to do.. But I am pretty sure (from this arm-chair) that that future involved an orange star.

Let's move forward to 2016ish.....QF will have a handful of 747's and 12xA380's flying around....

Do they then expect to suddenly introduce up to 50 787-9s and suddenly everyone will start flying them again ?

In the meantime people have flown with SQ/EK/EY and couldn't care about QF anymore.

Interesting that the folks at Australian Aviation agree with you to a certain extent, they a certainly a source of creditable info on my books, and clearly they see an ongoing shrinkage problem!

Analysis – For Qantas Int’l, the future is looking smaller all the time | Australian Aviation Magazine

The most extreme interpretation of Qantas’s decision to cancel 35 firm orders for Boeing 787 Dreamliners is that the move represents a step toward the inevitable end of the Flying Kangaroo’s iconic overseas services.

If Qantas’s decision today is a clear indication of anything, however, it’s that the airline no longer views more efficient aircraft as a viable short-term fix for an international operation that needs to be fixed pretty quickly. And that points to the likelihood that – even if Qantas International survives – it’s likely to keep on shrinking.

.

 

[codash1099]

I can't be certain that it applies to QF, but it is not unheard of for companies to take the opportunity to clean out a lot of dead wood from the books when they are having a big loss anyway, and especially when the market is expecting that big loss.

If that is the case, it could leave QF, and QFi in particular, in a good position to make a reasonably quick recovery. With 789 slots effectively locked in and with the deferral not much more later than would have occurred in the normal course of deliveries, we may yet see the plastic fantastic in the Oz skies.

 

[Berlin]

I'm a bit torn here- from a customer's point of view, I'm totally disappointed. Something tells me though, that from a beancounter's point of view, this might be a very smart thing to do. Now- the question, as ever so often, is whether the pure financial calculation is all there is and I personally doubt it, especially in the case of such a loyalty-/high margin customer-/image- driven industry as the airline business: In my experience, such "easy" savings far too often come hand in hand with bad customer experiences and in return loss of business which is hardly ever seen in advance by financial advisors and the likes. Pretty much what happens at QF at the moment unless we are missing something here.

But of course, I might be totally wrong as I have far too little insider information. None actually

 

[medhead]

Reality is you are drawing a conclusion from only partial data, which you are entitled to do. Many of us think your conclusion is wrong, because it is based on a fallacious assumption and does not take into account commercially confidential information which QF will not release at this time.

QF management is far from perfect, but there is no doubt that they understand the economics of running an airline better than do you, or I, or most of us here.

Pretty hard to agree. There are plenty of clever people on AFF who can make reasonable assumptions based on publicly available information. Given that detailed inside information on the company I'm sure they could do at least as good as Joyce, if not better. That's the key here, just because someone doesn't have the inside information does not mean they couldn't use that info if they had it.

 

[dougieboy]

Let's be real, QF have access to far more information than we do. QF have stated publicly that they have a 5 year turn around strategy for QF. They have made no statement that QFi is being disposed of or abandoned. Sometimes a little faith and understanding goes a long way!

Reminds me when a few years ago in 2006 Mitsubishi was closing up shop here in Australia. Make or break time for the Magna 380. Their ad way back in early 2002 "Don't Give Up" song playing in the back ground was aimed at providing reassurance to consumers that they made the right decision in a time of uncertainty in the local car industry. The current ads for Qantas need to provide reassurance and not whatever it is they are trying to communicate now 'cos its sure as hell not working.

Basic psychology get people to want to buy your product or service, and is a lot easier than convicing them doing the hard sell. The 787s had the 'X' factor like Apple with it's first iphone/ipad etc When you don't continue to push to innovate and deliver upon the expectations the company created, it communicates to your customer a don't care attitude, we're not committed, we'll take your money and you'll get what you're given aeroflot aged aircraft or thereabouts and no smile. Business is about a mix of entrepreneurship/ business manager and technical expertise - basic first year first semester business diploma. Joyce EPIC FAIL.

 

[chonetsao.co.uk]

Are they trying to copy what happened to Austrian Airlines recently?

(for those do not know about OS, it is sort of liquidated. But another company with lower head cost and higher margin are running for OS and all the aircrafts of OS is transferred to the new company. Not a bad way to get rid of your labour problem without US bankruptcy rules)

If I am militant union member of Qantas, I would be worried at what Qantas is heading now.

 

[Mrmaxwell]

How many bad results until AJ is gone.....really.

 

[JohnPhelan]

Though yes the way AJ talks about QFi it is safe to assume that it is in real trouble and needs to find its OWN niche place in the market. However that place is not an airline that can take everyone from anywhere in Aus to anywhere in the world at the lowest price providing 1st class service to all AND being a benevolent society for the benefit of the staff, unions and the country, despite many on this board and elsewhere thinking that is exactly what Qantas should be.

Bravo!! The best summation of the whole thing I've yet seen.

 

[markis10]

The question was specifically as to how the deferment of the 787-9's could in any way shape or form be construed as the death of QFi when the 787-9's were not (initially anyway) going to QFi. The only time Qantas talked about 787's in their own colours it was as domestic 767 replacements.
.

Not true, it was not long ago (May 2011) when Joyce was talking about how the dreamliners were slated to initally replace the 744s as one of the first QFi routes to DFW and how they would open new destinations to QF, don't think he meant OOL. There was also the quote when they upped the 787 orders:

The Chief Executive of Qantas, Mr Geoff Dixon, in Seattle for the rollout of the first B787, said the 787s would be used by the Qantas Group's two major brands, Qantas and Jetstar, for both domestic and international flying."The additional aircraft will better enable Qantas and Jetstar to take advantage of growth opportunities for point-to point flying in the Asia-Pacific region and to new international destinations in Europe, India and the Americas."

Meanwhile I would imagine JB is sleeping well, with history starting to show he made a good move with his exit from QF, while partners NZ across the ditch celebrate 30 years of LAX LON and being the only airline that does RTW with its on metal, one cannot help but think QF are where NZ was ten years ago!

 

[ajw373]

Not true, it was not long ago (May 2011) when Joyce was talking about how the dreamliners were slated to initally replace the 744s as one of the first QFi routes to DFW and how they would open new destinations to QF, don't think he meant OOL. There was also the quote when they upped the 787 orders:

This would be the same Mr Joyce who said about 6 months ago when announcing the restructure of Qantas that Qantas international would be getting no new aircraft until it turned around but there was no aircraft cancellations then, just deferal of A380's which were going to international. In relation to the route to DFW all I can find him saying in relation to the 787 and Dallas is "Imagine how good it will be with the 787 on that network.”.

As I said everything that had been announced points to the 787's being 767 replacements for DOMESTIC. The plan was 787-8 to Jetstar, Jetstar A330's to Qantas domestic, 767-300's out, 787-9's to Qantas (as 767 replacements), A330 domestic out. This is why now with their cancellation we are seeing the 767's staying.

Not saying 787's wouldn't have found their way to international, indeed had an argument on that very subject on this board, however what had been formally announced is the 787-9's were 767 replacements for domestic.

 

[Ansett]

Wilst this may or may not be a clever move one question I have is what is the effect of having an older less modern fleet. The announcement of Job Cuts with in QF maintenance basis seems perhaps to be premature or will they simpley move the maintenance completely off shore.

The main reason for the decrease in personnel was the iminent introdcution of modern aircraft that need less maintenace, surely these old 767's will need even more maintenance as they continuie to age.

 

[markis10]

As I said everything that had been announced points to the 787's being 767 replacements for DOMESTIC. The plan was 787-8 to Jetstar, Jetstar A330's to Qantas domestic, 767-300's out, 787-9's to Qantas (as 767 replacements), A330 domestic out. This is why now with their cancellation we are seeing the 767's staying.
.

Again, not true, look at the 2009 report:

The B787 will be ideal for point-to-point flyingon medium density routes, both short and longhaul; facilitating Jetstar’s growth into Europe andin Asia; operating Qantas services into Asia; andpotentially operating high traffic routes on theQantas domestic network. The arrival of this newaircraft type will allow for the retirement ofQantas’ B767 fleet. The expected range of theB787s means that Qantas and Jetstar can fly morepoint-to-point services without the need tooperate via hubs, a key advantage for ‘end of theline’ carriers.

If you look back over the history, QF over time has been getting less and less mention in the Dreamliner vision compared to the vision at order date, some pundits see the latest announcement as the final nail in the coffin for QFi. We know the world is not set up for an airline that is only A380 and A330, the middle ground is missing, and QF need to be thinking and acting on that middle ground now, which is 747 replacement.

 

[ajw373]

Again, not true, look at the 2009 report:

[/FONT]

Yep notice the bit where it say will allow it to retire the 767 fleet, which for the most part operates, hmmm DOMESTICITY. Isn't Honolulu now the only international 767 route, soon to be replaced with an A330?

Again didn't say it wouldn't fly internationally and again I've said I've had an argument or two on this very subject on this board. But there were no announced PLANS to fly it with what we now know as QFi. All the talk was about what it could do not what it was going to actually do.

 

[pauly7]

Topic heading is misleading, I thought there was new news about a cancellation but it's just what was announced yesterday...

 

[medhead]

Topic heading is misleading, I thought there was new news about a cancellation but it's just what was announced yesterday...

Really? The topic was started yesterday.


Sent from the Throne

 

[ozmuzz]

I am have been very pessimistic about Qantas for the last 10 years, and now I am convinced Qantas will cease to exist if Joyce stays at the helm. Made all the wrong decisions, and the only thing that would have saved Qantas is the 787... Sorry but delivering 787s to Jetstar confirms that the Qantas management is planning to let Qantas die a slow and very painful death.

Ozmuzz
QF Gold, DJ Gold