Qantas fleet decisions

[Yada Yada]

The 787 is still a paper plane.

Coincidentally I found the following info regarding the 787...

Boeing wings in Dreamliner assembly parts, on the fly

September 19, 2006

BOEING, the world's second-biggest plane maker, will begin delivering wings and fuselage parts for its 787 Dreamliner by air cargo in January.

The first 787 body parts will be flown from Nagoya, Japan, to Charleston, South Carolina, in Boeing's so-called large cargo freighter, a modified 747-400 enlarged to carry three times more cargo volume.

<...snip...>

The weekend flight is the 787 program's "most significant milestone this year" as wing and fuselage production is under way and on schedule for delivery next year, 787 production manager Scott Strode told reporters in Seattle.

Full Story...

 

[Mal]

The A380 6 month delay appears to have been confirmed:

BBC NEWS | Business | Airbus confirms more A380 delays

As I posted over at Flyertalk in response to that article:

QF certainly aren't going to be happy. More compo on the way for them?

I think Qantas needs to do something about their planes now. I believe they are short on 747's, and short on Airbus A330 size aircraft. (witness the march of 767's onto A330 destinations). Their 743's and 763's have had better days (but of course are still operational and safe enough to fly).

Surely this is impacting shareholders. Will this new delay force their hand to act?

 

[NM]

Coincidentally I found the following info regarding the 787...

Indeed the 747-400LCF (Large Cargo Freighter) has flown several test flights after being converted from a 747-400 in Taipei. It has now been flown to Seattle for the completion of flight testing and FAA certification. Boeing plans to convert 3 aircraft to 747-400LCF models and hopes to have the first aircraft certified and operational by the end of the year.

Boeing managed to get the 777 built and certified pretty much on schedule, so their track record for a new type entry for a commercial aircraft in recent times is not too bad. However, the 737BBJ conversion to AWACS spec for RAAF is now reported to have a 2 year delivery delay, making the A380 delay seem reasonable. But the Wedgetail delay is around the radar systems integration not with the airframe.

 

[simongr]

I saw this on CNN this morning - they are still committing to delivery of 4 I think by Xmas but big questions of the othe 7 next year. You have to wonder at what point the cost of compensation and brand impact will outweigh the cost of somehow ramping up production.

 

[NM]

I wonder if they are kicking themselves for not having placed their A380 order earlier. Or perhaps for ordering at all!

Given the fleet trouble they have at present, I'd be very surprised if they are not already scouring the globe for wide-body equipment that could be leased to help ease the problems.

the problem is that they need a feet to carry them for the next 15-20 years, and that means they need the extra operating efficiencies of the next generation aircraft such as A380, A350, 787 or 747-8. Buying current generation aircraft like A330 or 747-400 means they will be stuck with higher operating costs when their competitors are using the next gen aircraft.

So really their only choices are to put up with the current fleet restrictions and associated pain, or to look for a short-term solution to the problem. They seem to be doing a combination of these things, including continuing to use the 763 for medium range international routes and seeking additional short-term A330-200 aircraft from Airbus by way of compensation for the A380 delays.

They could look to lease some wide-body aircraft, but I think their experience with the initial operation and integration of the 3 x 747-400 "Ugly Sisters" back in the last 1990's has put them off that process for now. It took a long time to get those aircraft up to the same cabin build as the 747-438 aircraft, and then they had fuselage cracking problems with the ones that had been painted by MAS using the incorrect paint removal process (scraping).

Leasing and fitting out the cabin for a 2-3 year operation is an expensive exercise when you need the cash flow for purchasing the new replacement aircraft and at a time when operating costs are at their highest. Its a very delicate balancing act to get it right.

 

[maninblack]

I wonder if they are kicking themselves for not having placed their A380 order earlier. Or perhaps for ordering at all!

Given the fleet trouble they have at present, I'd be very surprised if they are not already scouring the globe for wide-body equipment that could be leased to help ease the problems.

Indeed, they may start getting A380's late next year and 787's in 2009 but how long will it take before they actually have any quantity of these aircraft? One or two showpiece A380's won't solve many problems. I would think that a few leases are on the cards.

 

[serfty]

Personally, I'd like the 787's to be around a few years before I'd make a special attempt to fly in one. They are being constructed with a entirely new concepts (for airliners), such as "a one-piece fuselage section". I would like these things "proven" by extensive commercial use first.

More here: Boeing: Commercial Airplanes - 787 Dreamliner - Background

 

[maninblack]

Leasing and fitting out the cabin for a 2-3 year operation is an expensive exercise when you need the cash flow for purchasing the new replacement aircraft and at a time when operating costs are at their highest. Its a very delicate balancing act to get it right.

True but it is not a 2-3 year issue, more like a 5 -7 year issue as these new aircraft aren't all going to magically arrive on Jan 1 2008. They also have to consider how much business they stand to lose in the intervening period by falling behind the competition. Certainly the apparent protections they recieve and the lack of a decent US based operator on the Pacific route is saving their bacon at the moment, if Virgin Atlantic or SQ were able to compete on that route QF would be in deep sheet.

You may have noticed that NZ has dumped the AMEX platinum/centurion companion deal since they revamped their long haul fleet. Why? More customers again. (doesn't mean that they will make any profit though )

 

[Altair]

As have I on WLG-SYD (or maybe it was CHC-SYD?).

Jetconnect flights on the 737's have them available in J I believe. You won't see them on non-Jetconnect routes though!

Yes they have had them in J on Trans-Tasman routes....also you can watch the small screen on the bulkhead if you want.
A special note for the WHY Trans-Tasman travellers, rows 5 and 6 on the 737-400 you get the handhelds as well. If the DVD library has the mainscreen movie you get that, if the DVD library does not you get your choice of ONE from the library.:mrgreen: In J you get the entire library given to you.

 

[Altair]

Also, the two A330-200's QF is receiving from Airbus as part of the compensation for the late delivery of the A380 will be delivered with the strengthend floors, and will be equipped with Skybed.

Dave

QF also ordered an additional 2 A330-200 for JQi. From my memory the reason QF had the lightweight A330-200 was due to some OZ airports charging on an aircraft operating weight basis. The QF A330-200 also had de-rated engines, but this is just a software issue and JQ will have them re-rated. The 2 330-200 on order will be increased weight machines and fly the BOM and PEK routes. This will free up a couple of more A330-300, then 767 for domestic routes.
Regarding the 767-300, Skybeds, it will not happen as there are balance issues. JQ getting the 767 a la AO, not going to happen as the A330-200 have better economics which allows JQ to offer the cheaper fares.
Forgot to add ANZ have reduced their 747 fleet by 1 but it is still undecided which airline has leased it.

 

[NM]

True but it is not a 2-3 year issue, more like a 5 -7 year issue as these new aircraft aren't all going to magically arrive on Jan 1 2008. They also have to consider how much business they stand to lose in the intervening period by falling behind the competition. Certainly the apparent protections they recieve and the lack of a decent US based operator on the Pacific route is saving their bacon at the moment, if Virgin Atlantic or SQ were able to compete on that route QF would be in deep sheet.

I don't think any short-term lease would need to be more than 2-3 years. If they leased 3 aircraft now, they would want to remove those three as soon as they have the first three deliveries of new aircraft.

They are expecting the initial 12 x 787 for JQ all during 2008, so the expected delivery rate is pretty fast. I also understand the first 3 or 4 A380s are all grouped fairly closely in the delivery slots. This is common practice since they need 3 aircraft to operate a daily service to places like LAX.

 

[maninblack]

Right, but thats for JQ, if they arrive on time, the 787's for QF will be a year behind that, if they indeed arrive on time. In the meanwhile we haven't discussed the likelehood that, if sucessful, JQ international may have a bit of a fleet shortage by 2008 itself, so I wouldn't count on those A330-200's going back into QF colours. I believe that a number of 747-8's are also under consideration at QF.

I guess that your saying that by 2009, which is afterall less than 3 years off, we will pretty well see the end of 743's and 763's on intl routes and in the meanwhile it's just a bit of a holding pattern for QF, if you will pardon the pun :!:

 

[NM]

I believe that a number of 747-8's are also under consideration at QF.

I have no inside knowledge about this, but would not be surprised to see a 747-8 order from QF. After all, the A380s on order are not going to replace all the 747s in the fleet. Its probably just a matter of when in the QF 744 life-cycle the cost benefits of the more efficient 747-8 outweighs the cost liability of replacing the 747-400. My guess is that would be somewhere in the 5-7 year mark, but I am sure the QF bean-counters have a much more accurate projection that I am able to guess.

I guess that your saying that by 2009, which is after all less than 3 years off, we will pretty well see the end of 743's and 763's on intl routes and in the meanwhile it's just a bit of a holding pattern for QF, if you will pardon the pun :!:

I think the 743s will go first, following the first few A380 deliveries. But I think the 2009 delivery of the 787 to QF mainline will only signal the start of the process of retiring the 763s. They will remain in the QF fleet mix for quite a few more years. I expect them to slowly be removed from international routes and finish their lives on the domestic and trans-Tasman shuttles.

 

[serfty]

FWIW, I believe the leased ex BA ZX 763's were due to be returned recently but Qantas are retaining use of them for now. This would be because they have no real choice.

 

[NM]

FWIW, I believe the leased ex BA ZX 763's were due to be returned recently but Qantas are retaining use of them for now. This would be because they have no real choice.

And BA does not need/want them back in their fleet at this time either.

 

[maninblack]

I went on one of those ZX planes a few months ago. I have not heard the interior of a plane rattle so badly in my life. Fortunately though my seat J class seat seemed to be somewhat broken and reclined about 10-15 degrees more than normal.

With all the talk about Skybeds and my accusations of bad fleet planning by Qantas, remember that it was only in about 2000 that Qantas ripped all the old Dreamtimes out of the 744's and replaced them with new ones and a new IFE system. This must have cost a pretty penny and you would have assumed a 10 plus year life for them, but alas market forces meant they had to rip those new seats out and replace them with Skybeds after only a few years. Funny thing is that the writing was surely on the wall as several other airlines had already started to put flatseats in J class. Again, what was QF thinking?

 

[og]

And BA does not need/want them back in their fleet at this time either.

I was watching ZXA approach the gate in ADL today (from MEL) and I'm sure that the metal plate surrounding the right hand windscreen wiper spline (which is screwed in place) was surrounded by duct tape placed over the screws! If it really was duct tape, that stuff must really stick.

 

[NM]

I was watching ZXA approach the gate in ADL today (from MEL) and I'm sure that the metal plate surrounding the right hand windscreen wiper spline (which is screwed in place) was surrounded by duct tape placed over the screws! If it really was duct tape, that stuff must really stick.

They do have an FAA-approved tape for such purposes. I assume CASA also permits its use under similar circumstances. In most cases its for temporary repairs and a proper repair must be completed withing a certain amount of time.

 

[oz_mark]

I was watching ZXA approach the gate in ADL today (from MEL) and I'm sure that the metal plate surrounding the right hand windscreen wiper spline (which is screwed in place) was surrounded by duct tape placed over the screws! If it really was duct tape, that stuff must really stick.

I have seen what looks like duct tape on the wing of an aircraft before, and thought exactly the same thing - it must really stick (and be quite strong as well).

 

[freqbugsmasher]

With all the well publicised delays in regards the 380 project, do you think that Qantas will take up it's options for Airbus’s new bit of metal ( 350, the 787 competitor)as it is even further away than the 380 or move lock stock to the new Boeing family i.e.
Next Gen 737 for smaller Trunk routes, 787 to eventually replace the 767 and the 747- 800to replace it's grandfather?

QF group does have about 20 options, 50 rights for the 787 on top of 45 orders, is this going to be the new “Australian Way?”:?: