Qantas orders new 787s and A350s

[WilsonM]

Inspired by the recent ET article Qantas gets ready to replace its A330s and the speculative RFP timeline of "the second half of the year", per VH.

Would love to get a collection of thoughts on possible and feasible replacements for the A330. To me, this seems like an extremely important crossroad in QF future fleet planning, although probably not as vital as the entire renewal of the narrowbody fleet.

While the A321XLR will most likely fulfill the domestic, trans-Tasman and smaller, point-to-point Asia routes that the A330s currently operate on, such as MEL-CGK, I doubt that it will take over all of the Asia routes, especially high density routes such as SYD-HKG, and it also doesn't quite have the range to do SYD-HND.

The easy answer would be the A330 NEO as a direct replacement, but does this really make much sense? The A330-800 has barely any orders, so there's a good chance it's cancelled and only the A330-900 is available. While a good aircraft, QF has historically gone for the new and shiny tech, and the seemingly increased focus on fleet commonality works against the A330 NEO in the long run. Plus the fact that as the A380 will be retired sooner rather than later, there will be missing capacity on routes such as SYD-LAX. The A330-900 could theoretically do it, but at a reduced load, if the A330-200 flights are anything to go by.

This leaves either a 787 variant, or the A350-900. Could QF operate a sub-fleet of 787-9s meant more for Asia flying (perhaps 2-class, or reduce the J cabin, move PE up to the old mini J cabin and add Y seats in the old PE) and get the current premium-heavy 787-9s on the ultra-long haul routes to the US and Europe? QF could also takeover JQ's eleven 787-8s, refurb them into a 2 class, relatively high density config. The JQ routes, with exception of SYD-ICN and SYD-HNL, could be taken over by the A321XLR. The 787-10 would allow for a slight increase in capacity, but also doesn't have the range to get to North America unless , so this doesn't seem like a viable option either. It does have a roughly 4000NM sweet spot in its economics though, which fulfills most of the east coast - Asia flying.

The A350-900 would be an interesting one, allowing for some level of fleet commonality with the incoming Sunrise A350-1000s. The extra range and capacity would decrease its flexibility to a certain extent to some destinations in Asia, but also allow it to be subbed on for current 787-9 routes, or even Sunrise routes.

 

[TheInsider]

Due to lack of orders and huge wait times for any new frames on any aircraft maker, I would place a bet on getting JQs 787s and then putting the QF product in them. This has happened before with the A330s.

Would be more than happy if there was something else, but ultimately there are no orders for anything substantial.

 

[justinbrett]

I think there will be a new widebody and would say the A330 neo is in pole position to get the order.

That doesn’t rule out more 787s/A350s for the longer routes, but those aircraft are too big to put on some of the short ones.

I also think Qantas will replace some of the 789s on premium routes (JNB, SCL, BNE-LAX etc) with standard A350s which would free up some 789s for Asian routes.

 

[exceladdict]

Due to lack of orders and huge wait times for any new frames on any aircraft maker, I would place a bet on getting JQs 787s and then putting the QF product in them. This has happened before with the A330s.

Would be more than happy if there was something else, but ultimately there are no orders for anything substantial.

I would have thought 787s. But would there be efficiency gains going all-airbus? And would it avoid crew/pilot retraining onto a new type, if they transitioned from 332/333 to 339s?

 

[jpp42]

The A350-900 would be an interesting one, allowing for some level of fleet commonality with the incoming Sunrise A350-1000s.

I am wondering if Sunrise itself is actually at risk with Joyce departing - every indication is that it's his pet project with very little support from middle management. As I posted in the relevant thread, there are serious concerns about the cost and weight of extra aramid (Kevlar) shields required to fireproof the extra fuel tanks being added to extend the range. Besides having serious implications on yields, this modification will limit these airframes' resale value as it would be added at build time and not removable. There also are concerns about getting CASA approval for the extended duty times required by flight crew, and many other details. If Sunrise is cancelled, these A350's could be ordered stock with much better yield, and replace the A380's directly on current routes.

Overall, it's clear the strategy is for thinner routes to capitalise on premium class travel that values fewer connections, so it's really only LHR that actually needs something equivalent in capacity due to slot restrictions - everywhere else they can serve with 787s, for example adding ORD-BNE in conjunction with downgauging LAX-SYD, as has been planned for a long time. We might eventually see other European destinations come back as well - I would think FRA would have good business travel yield.

I agree that Asia destinations are difficult without more 787's or A330neo, but the medium-term, converting some 787's from JQ does make sense.

While a good aircraft, QF has historically gone for the new and shiny tech, and the seemingly increased focus on fleet commonality works against the A330 NEO in the long run

I'm not sure I understand this comment, given QF for the foreseeable future has anything but fleet commonality- the A220 (former Bombardier C-series) has no commonality with *anything*, add that to the A321XLR, B737 for still a while yet, B787, and A350 you've got five totally separate fleets even if we discount the A380 (assuming it's retired when A350-10's are introduced).

 

[sqrt()]

A350s are so nice to fly on, and I hate dimmable windows. As long as the loos have windows I’m happy.

The 2-4-2 of 330s is nicer than 3-4-3 in though.

 

[Himeno]

There are around 200 A330s on the order book, with 3 being completed each month (to increase to 4/month next year). If Qantas orders A330neos today, it would be 4-5 years minimum before they arrived.

There are around 600 787s left on the order books, but that also includes aircraft completed but not delivered (~120). The production rate is at 4/month, to increase to 5/month by the end of the year.
Qantas should still have around 30 purchase right left.

When Jetstar starts getting their A321XLRs next year, they can start giving Qantas their 787-8s.

 

[eastwest101]

There are around 200 A330s on the order book, with 3 being completed each month (to increase to 4/month next year). If Qantas orders A330neos today, it would be 4-5 years minimum before they arrived.

There are around 600 787s left on the order books, but that also includes aircraft completed but not delivered (~120). The production rate is at 4/month, to increase to 5/month by the end of the year.
Qantas should still have around 30 purchase right left.

When Jetstar starts getting their A321XLRs next year, they can start giving Qantas their 787-8s.

Yeah I agree - the order books at Boeing and Airbus are already full, so I expect the Jetstar B787-8s to return to QFi service as a stop gap to a more long term replacement mix of A350-900 and -1000 family and/or more B787-9s or even 787-10s sometime in the late 2020s or even early 2030s.

The other possibility is that if the A330 fleet continues to be mostly reliable, and the B787-8 fleet is not reliable, then the 787-8s might get scrapped/sold before the A330 fleet.

Whatever the case, the retirement of the 2 A380s and the conversion of some A330s from pax to freight are looking like increasingly stupid ideas, and Vanessa Hudson might be able to reverse the latter, but maybe too late for the former..

Assuming nothing out of left field like another epidemic/global recession or large scale military conflict.

 

[WilsonM]

I'm not sure I understand this comment, given QF for the foreseeable future has anything but fleet commonality- the A220 (former Bombardier C-series) has no commonality with *anything*, add that to the A321XLR, B737 for still a while yet, B787, and A350 you've got five totally separate fleets even if we discount the A380 (assuming it's retired when A350-10's are introduced).

I'll fully admit I have very little experience in fleet planning, but considering that by the time this order is fulfilled, I would imagine most of the 737 fleet is on its way out, leaving just the A220, A321XLR, B787 and A350. I guess it would make more sense to continue with just these four types, rather than add another in the A330 NEO. Ofc, there is a one-off cost of retraining pilots and crew from the A330, but my feel is it would be worth it versus the added expenses of another distinct aircraft type.

 

[WilsonM]

A350s are so nice to fly on, and I hate dimmable windows. As long as the loos have windows I’m happy.

The 2-4-2 of 330s is nicer than 3-4-3 in though.

A350s atm are 3-3-3, although this could soon change per Airbus reshapes A350 cabin to accommodate up to 30 more seats

Am also not a fan of dimmable windows. They're just plain worse

 

[Himeno]

I would imagine most of the 737 fleet is on its way out, leaving just the A220, A321XLR, B787 and A350.

Qantas Group is currently sitting on 123 A320 family orders, only 20 are currently earmarked for Qantas, with the rest planned for Jetstar (JQ, 3K and GK).
Qantas has 75 737s to replace. The oldest are 22 years old. The youngest 5 years.

They'll need to firm up some options or move some of the Jetstar planned A320s to Qantas to replace the 737s in any reasonable amount of time.

At current production rates, there is a 7 year backlog on A320 orders. The 737s are going to be flying for a while yet.

 

[WilsonM]

Qantas Group is currently sitting on 123 A320 family orders, only 20 are currently earmarked for Qantas, with the rest planned for Jetstar (JQ, 3K and GK).
Qantas has 75 737s to replace. The oldest are 22 years old. The youngest 5 years.

They'll need to firm up some options or move some of the Jetstar planned A320s to Qantas to replace the 737s in any reasonable amount of time.

At current production rates, there is a 7 year backlog on A320 orders. The 737s are going to be flying for a while yet.

Would imagine they would firm up options after having the A321XLRs in the fleet for a little while. But can't see them maintaining the 33 737s that are 18+ years old past the end of the decade, most likely when the A330s would be replaced. Ofc, still a substantial amount of 737s remaining in the fleet, but eventually, they will be phased out, and I can't really imagine QF would go to another narrowbody besides the options for the A320 family. COMAC perhaps?

 

[elanshin]

In the perfect world i believe a mix of 787s a350 and 777x going forward would be the most logical solution with 787s taking over the medium haul routes to asia, a350 on the longer / slightly higher capacity routes and 777x replacing a380 longer term.

But given order backlogs and launch timing question marks, it'd make sense to have a fleet of a330 neos as well to supplement and having the a330s start coming in earlier as well as not having to retrain crew /pilots.

 

[RichardMEL]

My take:

It's going to be between A330-900neo and 787 - potentially the -10.

QF has staked their longer term fleets on 350-1000 sunrise, and the 789s. The 777-8/-9 is probably not going to be in that mix (and the delays and so on with it make it problematic right now). It doesn't make a lot of sense to add ANOTHER fleet type to the existing mix, unless there would be a plan to get rid of the 787's, and can't see that happening.

I reckon the 330neo has the upper hand here - if we consider current 330 routes, excluding BNE-LAX (and SYD-HNL I guess, but that's more a spoke unlike LAX), they're used domestic, a bit trans-tas and medium haul to Asia. With a fleet of 321XLR's coming in, which could serve asian locations (and trans-tasman) like SIN, maybe KUL, BKK or some other places, specially DPS, CGK maybe etc, then having CCQ with the 330's (and 350's, but that would be more for crew progression I would think) that crews could say fly an ADL-SIN in a 321XLR, then in theory do a SIN-MEL in a 330neo, so would provide for some flexibility crew wise. Further, probably more common for things like spares, maintenance and so on so that could be a factor.

I suggest the 787-10 merely for capacity. 330neo is rated at say 260-280 2 class, while 787-10 goes about 330 2 class. Asia seems like a place full of markets that could use extra capacity. UA have 44J, 21W and 253Y (318) so QF could go less squeezy but still get say 300ish in, and potentially fill those birds(or hope to). Consider CX/SQ?TG use mixes of 777/350 on many of their Australian routes to their home hubs, and sure lots of that is connecting traffic, a 300 seater may provide the future capacity that people want.

If I was putting money on it though, I'd go the 330neo. It's pretty much going to be a drop in replacement for current missions, common with the nwer 32x series coming online, and will serve all the current (and perhaps a few more) route requirements.

 

[docjames]

I think they are in a good position to negotiate hard between A+B for some 350-900/1000 (non-XLR) and 787-9 or -10. With A321s for the longer thinner routes, I can see a role for medium gauge capacity and with 350s and 787s already in fleet, it means they can pick a sub-model of existing aircraft in fleet (or even exact same model) but fit more dense seating in keeping with medium haul usage.

I think the 339 is unlikely - not worth introducing the model unless they are an absolute steal (another negotiation point with airbus).

 

[elanshin]

I think the 339 is unlikely - not worth introducing the model unless they are an absolute steal (another negotiation point with airbus).

In the perfect world I don't think theres room for 339. But in the real world we may see them utilise 339 with delivery backlog situations as they can be delivered concurrently with the a350s and with a crew that is already familiar with the 330 family.

This of course also depends on how the 787 deliveries are going and what the state of the relationship with Boeing is atm. If Boeing continues to struggle with 787 issues and delivery remains sketchy, getting 330neo might be the solution to get aircrafts sooner rather than later.

 

[docjames]

In the perfect world I don't think theres room for 339. But in the real world we may see them utilise 339 with delivery backlog situations as they can be delivered concurrently with the a350s and with a crew that is already familiar with the 330 family.

This of course also depends on how the 787 deliveries are going and what the state of the relationship with Boeing is atm. If Boeing continues to struggle with 787 issues and delivery remains sketchy, getting 330neo might be the solution to get aircrafts sooner rather than later.

They could even swing a short turnaround (sale and buyback) to use the 339s until ~ 7 years / major checks required then send back to Airbus. Qantas like to purchase but for a cheap enough lease rate they could alternatively acquire via a leasing company who then have to on-lease once QF are finished with them.

I think Qantas are in a good position to negotiate on this fleet replacement.

 

[RooFlyer]

A350s atm are 3-3-3, although this could soon change per Airbus reshapes A350 cabin to accommodate up to 30 more seats

Am also not a fan of dimmable windows. They're just plain worse

10-abreast A350 - that'll get the pulse racing for some airlines.

 

[spade1686]

Aug 21 (Reuters) - Boeing (BA.N) is close to securing an order for more of its 787 Dreamliner aircraft from Australia’s Qantas Airways (QAN.AX), industry sources said.

The order for an unspecified number of 787-10s deepens the presence of the high-tech Dreamliner family at Australia’s flag carrier and could be announced as early as this month, the sources said.

The sources cautioned that such negotiations typically go down to the wire and no decision is final until it has won airline board approval.

The deal would be Qantas's first order of the 787-10 model, a stretched version of the 787-9 with shorter range that is designed to compete against the Airbus A330.

Qantas Airways nears new Boeing 787 widebody order

Assume these would be the A330 replacements? Curious about the ETA on these considering the 787 backlog

hopefully might include some additional 787-9's!

 

[Harrison_133]

Reuters are reporting that Qantas are nearing a new widebody order, with an unspecified number of 787-10s earmarked as an A330 replacement.

Qantas Airways nears new Boeing 787 widebody order

Boeing is close to securing an order for more of its 787 Dreamliner aircraft from Australia’s Qantas Airways , industry sources said.

www.reuters.com