Qantas orders new 787s and A350s

[Himeno]

Thought that due to/re project sunrise, it would be only a350s for QF int ultra long haul, and 220 or the other one for the dom short haul/int short haul, and no more b787s.

It's currently:
short haul (domestic/South Pacific) 737/A330
mid haul (Asia) A330/787
long haul 787/A380

It's moving towards:
short haul A220/A320
mid haul 787/???
long haul 787/A350

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

Suffice it to say this announcement could be anything from an imminent done-and-dusted commitment to a strategic play to light a fire under Airbus. I'd be curious what delivery timelines would look like --- we keep hearing about all the routes QF wants to reactivate/launch but doesn't have the frames for, so you'd think delivery timelines would be a material factor.

As for cost, I don't know whether Boeing or Airbus would be more desperate for what's likely to be a relatively modest order. Safe to say either could go low if they really wanted to.

From a passenger experience, J pax should be content either way, PY pax indifferent and just hoping QF fixes the restricted pitch issue regardless of which they go for, and Y is decidedly worse on the 787.

I doubt the Board or QF management care much about the latter. Most airlines get away with it, and that's even before we consider the protectionism afforded to Qantas, though such protectionism helps ensure QF can continue to command a premium without providing a commensurate level of service.

That said, I have an upcoming trip to Hawaii in Y. Had my options been a QF 787 or HA 330, you can bet I'd have gone for HA even if QF wasn't charging more. For the vast majority in the back, the 9-abreast 787 is just not a pleasant experience no matter how you slice it or who you fly.

 

[justinbrett]

Can we rule out JQ getting the 787-10s?

 

[Himeno]

Suffice it to say this announcement could be anything from an imminent done-and-dusted commitment to a strategic play to light a fire under Airbus. I'd be curious what delivery timelines would look like --- we keep hearing about all the routes QF wants to reactivate/launch but doesn't have the frames for, so you'd think delivery timelines would be a material factor.

There is a 4-5 year backlog on new A330s, unless someone cancels their orders and Qantas is able to get those slots. Meanwhile, QF has 38 slots available in the 787 build queue should they firm up their remaining options/rights for delivery in the next 2 years.

 

[FlyingKangaroo]

There is a 4-5 year backlog on new A330s, unless someone cancels their orders and Qantas is able to get those slots. Meanwhile, QF has 38 slots available in the 787 build queue should they firm up their remaining options/rights for delivery in the next 2 years.

Assuming that firming up those orders actually converts to deliveries within that timeframe, that might be enough on its own.

As much as I hate flying the 787 when I have to fly in Y, if I had to choose between several years of inflated prices / artificial capacity restrictions vs better fares / more flights but on the 787, well, I see the temptation in settling for the latter.

 

[oz_mark]

There is a 4-5 year backlog on new A330s, unless someone cancels their orders and Qantas is able to get those slots. Meanwhile, QF has 38 slots available in the 787 build queue should they firm up their remaining options/rights for delivery in the next 2 years.

Not sure they would get them that quickly, but taking up these options would seem to be the fastest approach to getting new frames.

 

[MelbFlyer]

getting JQs 787s and then putting the QF product in them

If this was done, I wonder if the "engineering issues" that JQ had will then suddenly disappear if under QF.

 

[jb747]

....crews could say fly an ADL-SIN in a 321XLR, then in theory do a SIN-MEL in a 330neo, so would provide for some flexibility crew wise.

The 330 is co-endorsed with the 350, but not the 320 series.

Which got no other passenger version made. Though the cargo companies did love the 744ERF. Maybe UPS etc might take up some A350-1000ULRFs.

QF tried to get some more. But Boeing said no, and pushed the 747-800, so QF looked away.

Can we rule out JQ getting the 787-10s?

No. If Alan were around it would be a certainty that Jetstar would get anything new before QF.

 

[RichardMEL]

The 330 is co-endorsed with the 350, but not the 320 series.

Thanks jb. I had thought CCQ pretty much covered the lot of them. I'm sure I had read somewhere at some point that LH tech crews could go from 340 to 320 (for example) but perhaps I misinterpreted that in terms of the actual training requirements were relatively minimal due to the common coughpits so it was a far easier transition from one to the other

 

[dajop]

I don't agree, I think a few airlines will be looking at the variant.

Be interesting to think of who. SQ may be one, they could increase the payload of current non-stop services to New York, and with economy cabin could make destinations like ORD and YYZ viable.

But If you take 9000mi as the limit of current non-bespoke variants that carry both economy and business class, then the markets for something longer range would seem to be Asia-South America, SE Asia - eastern US, SE Australia-eastern US/Europe and S/E Africa to Western US.

 

[justinbrett]

But If you take 9000mi as the limit of current non-bespoke variants that carry both economy and business class, then the markets for something longer range would seem to be Asia-South America, SE Asia - eastern US, SE Australia-eastern US/Europe and S/E Africa to Western US.

It's more like 8000NM (PER-LHR is 7828, SIN-JFK is 8287) and even then may not be the most efficient vs the QF A350.

LHR-SYD - 9187
JFK-SYD - 8646
CDG-PPT - 8485
ATL-SYD - 8068
LAX-JNB - 9023

 

[dajop]

It's more like 8000NM (PER-LHR is 7828, SIN-JFK is 8287) and even then may not be the most efficient vs the QF A350.

LHR-SYD - 9187
JFK-SYD - 8646
CDG-PPT - 8485
ATL-SYD - 8068
LAX-JNB - 9023

I am not an aviator or seafarer, so think in km or miles (and only miles because of the whole mileage game). And on AFF, many of us would have familiarity with miles, well because of their historical importance to points and miles earning. So the limit is more like 9200 miles instead of 9000 miles.

 

[justinbrett]

I am not an aviator or seafarer, so think in km or miles (and only miles because of the whole mileage game). And on AFF, many of us would have familiarity with miles, well because of their historical importance to points and miles earning. So the limit is more like 9200 miles instead of 9000 miles.

Ah, I thought you were quoting nautical miles. NM is the standard for aviation and what is quoted by Boeing & Airbus on their websites (though they also show Km).

In any case, that was a list of possible routes, all by current operators of A350s.

Of course range is not a binary question, max payload decreases as range increases; so while 9000 statute mile routes might be viable, they're not operating at max payload. It will be interesting to see how the economics on some of the current ULR routes compare to the QF A350*.

*I use the term QF A350 as it has not received a designator yet

 

[elanshin]

Be interesting to think of who. SQ may be one, they could increase the payload of current non-stop services to New York, and with economy cabin could make destinations like ORD and YYZ viable.

Perhaps JAL or ANA to go Tokyo to Brazil? The largest Japanese expat population outside of Japan I believe is in fact in Brazil.

 

[Himeno]

Perhaps JAL or ANA to go Tokyo to Brazil? The largest Japanese expat population outside of Japan I believe is in fact in Brazil.

JAL used to fly to São Paulo via New York. They dropped it in 2010 during their bankruptcy restructuring (along with dropping BNE and others).

 

[RooFlyer]

Anyone with info on the A350-Sunrise craft, build?

* Are the designs/engineering completely finished and locked?

* Have all the regulator approvals needed at the pre-build stage been gained (if any)?

* When are physical builds to start (if not already)?

* Any regulator approvals needed post build?

Ta.

 

[Scarlett]

Common type rating for 787-9 and 787-10? If so, that must surely generate cost savings for the operator?

 

[RichardMEL]

The 787-10 makes some sense. Higher capacity makes sense for asia routes like SIN, Japan, HNL and so on, with flexibility to swap in on the domestic network as needed (both as 330-200 replacements, but also in a role akin to the use of the 747-300's back in the day for transcons or for a big event - like if a WA team was playing in the AFL Grand Final or something).

From what I can tell in a J/W/Y config, the 787-10 can carry around 10% more pax (~30) than the 330neo, and that may be a factor in a potential choice - specially for longer routes with higher demand.

It is interesting in a broader sense that will make the 787 be, by the end of the decade I guess, the outliers of the fleet which would be all Airbus (let's put any Q400's to one side) but shows the carrier really REALLY likes the economics of the 787's.

I have a feeling that perhaps there's also a factor that A330neo slots may be hard to come by vs Boeing really needing some "wins" on the board and probably will have offered a hefty discount (assuming this imminent order thing is actually a thing) and possibly an offer they couldn't refuse.

 

[NSun]

Surely QF would only go with the A330neo if there was an unbelievable deal in terms of price and delivery slots that would cancel out the long-term benefit of removing a type from the fleet. And that is before considering any delivery slots QF may have from the 2005 order.

I would expect the layout of any new 787s (or A359s ordered instead as an A330 replacement) to be similar to the FinnAir A330s that are being wet leased (about 30J, 20 or so Y+ and 200-230 Y). Yes, Y+ demand from Asia may not be as solid as North America or Europe. But there is demand on some routes - they're now selling Y+ on SYD-BKK and the other SYD-SIN flight that will be operated by FinnAir, plus the second double daily SYD-HND service. Surely there would be Y+ demand on BNE-LAX and even MEL-DEL & SYD-BLR (I certainly would've appreciated Y+ on my Delhi trip back in May). And even if they couldn't sell it on every route, just let WPs sit there on route where it wouldn't make sense to sell it.

 

[justinbrett]

Perhaps JAL or ANA to go Tokyo to Brazil? The largest Japanese expat population outside of Japan I believe is in fact in Brazil.

I think that will be a little too far; HND to GIG is 10,0022 NM; to GRU is 10,008.

HND to SCL is more doable at 9297NM (SYD-LHR is 9187NM).

AKL-LHR is 9910NM; so that wouldn't work either.