QF to cut jobs/routes

[moa999]

I think the big question is what happens with all the 747s that are scheduled for retirement (I think they mentioned all bar 9 in the next 3 years from a current list of 19 (with another 5 to go in the next 6 months) (per pg 15/16 of the Supp)
There are 2 more A380s to come (config unknown as I cant believe they would run just two without F) and one A330 over this period (albeit not in the next 6 months, although I presume OQA comes back)

Unless the 787-9s start arriving to replace them (and go to QF) there are going to have to be more longhaul routes cut over the next few years.

Retirement of the 737-4s also kicking up - down to 10 by June 12. Also one 767 leaving the fleet??? One of the ex BA birds??

 

[moa999]

Qantas's biggest problem is cashflow.

They have been investing $2-2.5bn in fleet the last few years and look like doing so for many to come given the orders --- most of this is mainline as Jetstar seems to lease all its aircraft,
yet the earnings are way below this number. Hence no dividend (its all going to buy new aircraft) but also increasing debt.
Net debt was up $800m for the half.

Half operating cashflow was $823m, yet $1501m spent on investments (mostly 24 aircraft) -- the difference funded by the increasing debt and use of cash reserves.

 

[dajop]

Also intereting that the SIN/ADL services are changing days

A direct result of axing SIN-BOM service, as the aircraft used to travel ADL-SIN-BOM-SIN-ADL, meaning that SIN-ADL operated the day after ADL-SIN. Now the aircraft will just do ADL-SIN-ADL same day.

 

[anat0l]

No, it wasn't. But I think that was mostly because QF never really made a serious go of it. They used an older configured plane (a 767) I think, only operated the service 3/4 days a week and were often double the price of the (far superior) SQ service via SIN. Occasionally it was possible to get interline deals with AA to JFK, LAX, HNL, ORD etc. via NRT which were often popular but most of the time but they were very difficult to book and QF's website always encouraged you to go via SYD and LAX instead.
I really think there's a market there for JAL or ANA to start services to Perth and then fly people onwards to their range of North American destinations, just one stop from Perth to New York, Chicago, Seattle etc. Something that QF will never be able to match. At this stage QF's only international destinations out of Perth are SIN and HKG. They've pretty much accepted defeat in Perth and allowed the foreign carriers to take over and expand.

I don't think a "serious go" would've improved conditions on this route, except for the price. Even then, there's a non-trivial weigh-up of direct services vs. via-services; suffice to say we are of a different breed on this board...... now whether that was worth the cost difference I have absolutely no idea. (It probably wasn't, but again, our AFF judgement here...)


I'm not sure interline to the USA would be a popular option, though I have heard some sandgropers take advantage of this kind of routing; just not many. I thought it would've been a point-to-point market, and again I'm not seeing the big demand.

I'm also not of the opinion that QF has categorically "accepted defeat" in PER. There just isn't market. Most of the traffic is to SIN and I'd be guessing that's for Euro service feeders. Of course, international competitors are always going to come in and challenge QF on routes operating out of PER. The way I see it is what are the real direct opportunities for PER travellers, and a serious market at that (especially one that would be better than the SIN/HKG feeder markets).

Not every international venture (QF or non-QF) to PER is successful or exactly testament that QF have given up. MH recently had a BKI sortie which is now withdrawn. NZ's PER-AKL service, despite being a very long one, is a Seats to Suit service. Every other entrant is simply flying to their hub (natural thing to do - not necessarily a direct service to where people want to go). And, really, where is the international expansion in PER of select airlines? (SQ notwithstanding, perhaps...)

Also, NH and JL aren't silly, yet JL has only a service to SYD and NH has none (the latter I find very, very hard to believe). If there was such a rich opportunity staring them in the face why aren't they doing it?

 

[dajop]

I I'm also not of the opinion that QF has categorically "accepted defeat" in PER. There just isn't market.

Really, if you accept the fact that none of QF's fleet has the ability to travel PER-LAX non stop, and consider AU/NZ as a single market, PER, compared to BNE and the much bigger MEL isn't really serviced much better or worse than those two cities (as far as intl goes only missing the impossible/uneconomic LAX services).

 

[anat0l]

Really, if you accept the fact that none of QF's fleet has the ability to travel PER-LAX non stop, and consider AU/NZ as a single market, PER, compared to BNE and the much bigger MEL isn't really serviced much better or worse than those two cities (as far as intl goes only missing the impossible/uneconomic LAX services).

I'd tend to agree with that.

Even if there were a PER-LAX non-stop, I'd like to see if that could be successful, possibly barring the impact of the extractive industries. It might breathe some life into PER, though

PER-LAX non-stop.... geez that'd be a long service. (Almost like the VS floated idea of non-stop PER-LHR services).

 

[oz_mark]

And, really, where is the international expansion in PER of select airlines? (SQ notwithstanding, perhaps...)

China Southern recently commenced services, Qatar commence services in July.

 

[rechoboam]

Return on equity must be in the ballpark of 2% off the top of my head. Not a good look.

 

[anat0l]

China Southern recently commenced services, Qatar commence services in July.

That's a new airline on the block, not an expansion of previous airlines.

Again, probably guessing at feeder services more than final destinations.

 

[markis10]

That's a new airline on the block, not an expansion of previous airlines.

Again, probably guessing at feeder services more than final destinations.

Virgin Australia to Bali?
AirAsiaX to Bali

 

[oz_mark]

That's a new airline on the block, not an expansion of previous airlines.

Again, probably guessing at feeder services more than final destinations.

Ok. Over the last couple of years, CX has increased from 4 flights a week up to 10 flights a week currently. TG is increasing capacity shortly (and reintroducing HKT flights).

 

[moa999]

We are getting off topic here with talk on PER not QF.

markis - how could AirAsiaX fly to Bali - its a Malaysian based airline.

 

[oz_mark]

We are getting off topic here with talk on PER not QF.

markis - how could AirAsiaX fly to Bali - its a Malaysian based airline.

They don't - but Air Asia Indonesia do

 

[markis10]

They don't - but Air Asia Indonesia do

Yep, as they do to DRW ex Bali as well.

 

[anat0l]

Virgin Australia to Bali?
AirAsiaX to Bali

Which one came first - Jetstar, Virgin or AirAsiaX?

Doesn't really matter, though PER-DPS must be a very good market nonetheless. Easily supports more than one airline. Simply putting more traffic on that route for the sake of "outnumbering seats" of the competitor doesn't always work.

Have these airlines put on extra traffic over the years?

Ok. Over the last couple of years, CX has increased from 4 flights a week up to 10 flights a week currently. TG is increasing capacity shortly (and reintroducing HKT flights).

Fair enough.

Luckily CX are oneworld partners.


I suppose none of this really answers whether QF can operate other international routes from PER profitably. (And real point to point services, not just feeders. For example TG to BKK works well as a feeder service, especially for Star Alliance).


In fact, it begs to reason that BNE, with a larger airport, population and potential market, can't be doing that well either. Even the BNE-SIN market is tentative at best (though SQ have this well saturated, along with the Middle Eastern tag-flyers.)


In fact, part of the speech today remarked that Australian outbound bookings are doing well in contrast to Australian inbound bookings. What the hell - we are paying a lot to fly out of this country (compared to flying into it) and yet outbound bookings are doing well?

 

[oz_mark]

In fact, part of the speech today remarked that Australian outbound bookings are doing well in contrast to Australian inbound bookings. What the hell - we are paying a lot to fly out of this country (compared to flying into it) and yet outbound bookings are doing well?

It may just have something to do with the AUD.

 

[markis10]

Which one came first - Jetstar, Virgin or AirAsiaX?

Doesn't really matter, though PER-DPS must be a very good market nonetheless. Easily supports more than one airline. Simply putting more traffic on that route for the sake of "outnumbering seats" of the competitor doesn't always work.

Have these airlines put on extra traffic over the years?

Perth - Bali has grown over the years:

[TABLE="width: 499"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-09[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 92"]Denpasar[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 109"]Indonesia[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 71"]36,763[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 73"]18.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 499"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 92"]Denpasar[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 109"]Indonesia[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 71"]68,056[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 73"]18.3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 499"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 92"]Denpasar[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 109"]Indonesia[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 71"]69,458[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 73"]18.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


As has Dubai:

[TABLE="width: 626"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-09[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 92"]Dubai[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 109"]United Arab Emirates[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 71"]24,408[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 73"]566.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 63"]9.2[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, align: right"]2009[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 626"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 92"]Dubai[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 109"]United Arab Emirates[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 71"]27,389[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 73"]660.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 63"]5.3[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, align: right"]2010[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 626"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 92"]Dubai[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 109"]United Arab Emirates[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 71"]28,387[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 73"]647.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 63"]4.4[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, align: right"]2011[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


And even Singapore:

[TABLE="width: 626"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-09[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 92"]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 109"]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 71"]71,805[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 73"]2,141.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 63"]75.5[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, align: right"]2009[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 626"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 92"]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 109"]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 71"]74,722[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 73"]2,068.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 63"]71.8[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, align: right"]2010[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE="width: 626"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 64, align: right"]Jun-11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 89"]Perth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 92"]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 109"]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 1"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 71"]78,055[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 73"]2,175.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, width: 63"]54.5[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, align: right"]2011
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Perth has a very large freight import business, probably more important the BNE etc

 

[cosi]

Perth has a very large freight import business, probably more important the BNE etc

Also a large export business especially seafood.

Many could not understand why Per-Nrt was suspended because seafood exporters paid a premium for cargo space

 

[markis10]

Also a large export business especially seafood.

Many could not understand why Per-Nrt was suspended because seafood exporters paid a premium for cargo space

Problem is its seasonal, 20T a month is nothing, (I have gone back before the Tusnami etc )

[TABLE="width: 417"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Sep-09[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]70.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Oct-09[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]44.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Nov-09[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]66.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Dec-09[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]47.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Jan-10[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]23.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Feb-10[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]30.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Mar-10[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]84.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Apr-10[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]116.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]May-10[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]102.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Jun-10[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]54.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Jul-10[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]77.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]Aug-10[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Tokyo[/TD]
[TD]77.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Flying Fox]

OK so QF is closing it catering station in ADL from MAR 2013. What will happen with catering for flight from ADL?

Surely they wouldn't fly food in to ADL for flights from ADL?

Would they sell ADL catering to a private firm?