QF "trust us" letter

[jase05]

Was reading an article early this week where Virgin owe an aiport in WA 500k in unpaid landing fees, Im not convinced buying into such a debt ridden business is a good investment, I certainly wouldnt put all my eggs in the Virgin basket.

Money owed when they went into Voluntary Administration and it will be written off.
I wouldn’t invest in VA again but plenty will IMO

 

[oz_mark]

Was reading an article early this week where Virgin owe an aiport in WA 500k in unpaid landing fees, Im not convinced buying into such a debt ridden business is a good investment, I certainly wouldnt put all my eggs in the Virgin basket.

It's owed by the administrators of the previous entity. As with the others owed money, they'll end up with about 10% of it.

The money is not owed by the new version of Virgin

 

[exceladdict]

Yep.

Semi retired, mortgages locked in for quite a while yet at between 2-3% on low LVIs or offset. Already have 3 cruises this year mulling over xmas jaunt and finalising a month away in the Caribbean next April.

The Aussie population is not a homogenous group of cash strapped single income first home buyers - far from it.

The vast majority of people I see on overseas flights and tours and cruises are not first home owners. (leaving aside the 7 days cruises into the Pacific from the east coast which have quite a few).

And as long as commodity exports remain in strong demand, there'll be plenty of fifo traffic too. The question is how far the knock-on effects of slowing consumer spending go on to impact business profits and travel etc.

But, getting OT. As employment markets get easier for businesses, hopefully we continue to see improved performances of ground services, etc.

 

[Quickstatus]

commodity exports remain in strong demand

The Govt is looking at a significant budget surplus of maybe $30B with a B. This projection is a $60B with a B turnaround from projections announced by the Treasurer back in Oct 22
This will be a headache for the RBA as there will be significant pressure on the Govt to spend

Commodity exports "bringing home the bacon" as one PM used to say.

Against the looming spectre of low interest fixed rate mortgages refinancing, the AUD/USD possibly boosted in this scenario where the US economy softening and AU revenge spending still roaring along, wages increasingly linked to inflation and high commodity prices for the forseeable future. In this case QFi and JQi may benefit. VA² who is largely domestic might not.

ok this thread has been hijacked

 

[Tropic]

hijacked

Most threads end up 7500'ed on AFF

 

[RichardMEL]

Of course he can, the CEO can at anytime direct that a flight, if not already departed, to not depart. Or direct that the flight, if not already departed, be operated to another airport.

In most situations at most airlines this wouldn't happen and would be inappropriate. Operations do not usually run on the whim of one person - specially at a publicly listed company like QF. Remember to make a flight go or not go involves more than just a Captain, or a dispatcher, or some manager in accounting. Sure, the first two can halt a flight for reasons - safety, crew hours, weather, mx, down the line issues etc - these are operational concerns and have impacts when made (and we all know airlines do not generally want to cancel flights if they can help it - and yes I know about consolidation on high frequency routes, but let's put that situation aside for a moment as it's still an operations call). Point being Operations would baulk at a CEO saying run this flight if they had solid operational reasons to not run it (such as weather, crew timing etc) and conversely if CEO said don't run it, they'd need a very very good reason - and be accountable for it - and to be supported by the operating side of the airline.

Now if this were an Air Koryo in DPRK or somewhere else like that (perhaps in the ME - I'm sure Al Baker has far more control over QR flying decisions than Joyce would have at QF) then sure.

While the CEO is the top of the pile I suspect there is (or very much should be if not!) a firewall between the executive branch of the carrier and operations. Joyce is a bean counter - he has no ops experience etc - it wouldn't be appropriate or his place to be making operational decisions and whatever one may think of him I do not think he, or any other serious western airline CEO would even attempt such things.

(not saying that perceived pressure would not occur, for example, if a senior manager - ie CEo/Board chairperson etc - was on a specific flight to ive it every priority - that would not surprise. I've worked in companies where the CEO's wishes become paramount priorities for technical teams -but this is a different kind of thing)

For some reason this tangent reminds me of the "nut rage" incident over at KE where the chairman's daughter (who was also an exec there) demanded a cabin crew member be thrown off the aircraft because she was served nuts in a bag and not bowl in F on the aircraft..... That didn't go down well either

Either that or the character from Little Britain in the wheelchair directing "I want that one!" and pointing at a plane and random destination on a map.....

 

[justinbrett]

Fair call.
Accepted.

What's your view on AJ email?

I didn’t get it.

I earn the majority of my SCs with AA so I think QF thinks I live in the US. I never get the Australian only emails.

 

[RichardMEL]

I didn’t get it.

I earn the majority of my SCs with AA so I think QF thinks I live in the US. I never get the Australian only emails.

Well that would depend on

a) the address on your profile
b) the communications preferences settings on your profile

not your earning patterns

 

[drron]

I got the email even though until this weekend I hadn’t earned a single point or SC for 9 years.
My points all come from EDR, the well-being app or share trading.

 

[justinbrett]

Now that you've revealed your source, we can have a look at it ourselves. Here's a wider view of what you presented:

View attachment 315674

The headline in the article is a bit different from your initial description.



If we are going to present data, need to source it and present fairly, so we can all judge for ourselves, rather than some anonymous partial snip.. I judge that the picture for Virgin in that article was pretty good.

I posted the graph in full, the only thing that was clipped was the header and that wasn’t intentional.

I actually made no comment on whether the picture was “good” or otherwise for VA, I was questioning the claim that VA had a market share of 36% as based on available data (that graph) I couldn’t see how that would be possible.

It wouldn’t bother me if VA had a market share of 36%, my original comment was that QF charges higher fares so that more than makes up for a few percentage points of market share.

The main argument I was debating against was that QF had “lost ground”. I don’t think it has, not from pre covid times. It may have had an 80% market share during covid, but that’s 80% of a much smaller pie.

Pre Covid is an irrelevant comparison as VA has gone through bankruptcy proceedings since then. Bain took over in June 2020 and Tiger disappeared then though VAs low point was July 2020. Looking at the graphs since then VA has taken market share from both QF and JQ.

That is a remarkable achievement in the circumstances as QF basically held all the aces. Bankrupt Airlines historically don't have a good track record. I for one think they have done far better than I thought possible.

It’s not irrelevant at all if you are discussing QF’s performance (this is not a VA thread). You could argue that QF didn’t take advantage of the VA decline, but you can’t say it has lost ground based on a normal operating market.

As we saw with the collapse of Ansett, the market will naturally support two major carriers. There’s enough people here who don’t like Qantas they’ll fly with literally anybody else. Also helps being backed with very deep pockets.

 

[RichardMEL]

I got the email even though until this weekend I hadn’t earned a single point or SC for 9 years.
My points all come from EDR, the well-being app or share trading.

And you're an example of how QF's diversified strategy to entangle many people into the "loyalty" web works to support their end goals. That's why it's not really QF Frequent FLYER anymore, but QF loyalty (and they've not exactly been hiding it).

The two feed right into eachother, specially in a relatively small fishbowl of the Australian market - seems everywhere one looks QF has a tag to get people in - woolies, BP.. I heard a ad for a financial company the other day.. Latrobe? with a bait of QF points.. insurance.. and share trading as you say and many others. All of those things, plus CC/bank tie ins of course, totally work to enhance the profit of QF Loyalty and in turn have those people who do earn points with EDR or BP or whatever then naturally think "well I want to use QF if I can because points"

Sure VA has its swag of partners, but I reckon advertising and things I see and hear that mention QF are far far more than VA.

QF also has had a long standing arrogance towards its dominant position. If it's 60%, 65% whatever.. there's still that point that QF considers, I think, they have the majority of capacity, routes etc that suit most people, and that in turn keeps them in with the "loyalty" tie ins, plus - in most markets anyway - schedule advantage and the like.

I'd also say such a relatively high market share (domestic) leads to a level of complacency in terms of effort (see also - catering on board, customer service efforts, etc) that is quite arrogant.. and the competition is not that strong (but improving). I also wonder if Rex is becoming more than a Mozzie. They seem to be upping capacity (and LF) on key domestic routes and while notwhere near a major thread, probably are becoming more of an issue for QF than, say, Bonza look to be.


There's another thing which may or may not come back into play in the medium term. Both major carriers are wary still after the capacity wars that went on in the period before the pandemic - it hurt them both (VA obviously fare moreso) and they probably don't want to try and return to this kind of behaviour. Right now they don't need to as demand is still very high and supply is still being limited due to various factors as discussed.. but there will be a point where yes, the demand will ease off, prices will come down, and then I reckon the competition will heat right back up again.

we shall see.

 

[justinbrett]

Well that would depend on

a) the address on your profile
b) the communications preferences settings on your profile

not your earning patterns

Well it was my working theory... but now I investigate. Profile definitely has AU address (I receive my physical cards in the mail).



Interesting I get all the other major emails (I got the status support ones etc, which seems to be in contravention to the list above). It's just any email that's specifically gone only to AU residents, I never got. I seem to have got all the others. I don't think I've looked at this list in 15 years.

 

[Townsend]

Agree - both QF21/22 and QF7/8 on 1Feb was cancelled due to bad weather at DFW

Drilling deeper....
QF7/8 operated on 2Feb but not QF21/22
Surely if QF78 could operate on 2Feb, then QF21/22 could have as well - at least from a weather point of view.


I think QF22 VH-ZND actually departed DFW on 30Jan and returned via a diversion to AKL on 1Feb. It was already in MEL 1hr 15min before the cancelled QF21 on 1Feb.

The answer for why QF21 did not operate on 2Feb could be because QF21 is Mon/Wed/Sat operation and not a 7 day a week operation. 2Feb was a Thursday
Interestingly it arrived into MEL 5hrs late. I wonder if a 787 crew was sent to AKL

Thanks for this information. Passengers were told that they were going to run the flight on Thursday because it was basically a full plane and there was no capacity elsewhere.

 

[pauly7]

Wow this thread The (volume) market share posts were hilariously entertaining!

I can assure you that the airlines (perhaps with the oddity of the Rex situation removed) are #1 focussed on profitable operations right now as they all see the headwinds coming. Qantas has the benefit of being buffered by business, freight, loyalty and more well heeled customers, but they will still be playing it carefully. We all know how quickly things can change…

On the Qantas letter, it’s a bit odd, I think most adept frequent travellers don’t bat an eyelid at the tabloid / syndicated press coverage, most people know why some certain news groups have done certain things…. But for their tail customers, perhaps it was warranted. News cycle is so fleeting now I suspect it’s an overreaction, in my opinion.

From Qantas I would love them to find a way to get back the remaining A380s as quickly (and safely of course) as possible so they can restore a couple of key international routes we use a lot (Plus queue jump some frames at Airbus/Boeing would be welcome to aid in the same!)

From Virgin I’d appreciate a trust us email from Jayne committing to turn around their OTP and service rates of late and that’s it. I don’t want them trying to fly internationally / add benefits they can’t claw back margin on / upscale / do anything that compromises their financial situation. We need Virgin to continue to be a small, simple but sustainable operation in AU for the benefit of all flyers.

 

[levelnine]

Looks like Qantas have a long way to go before the public will be willing to trust them.

Another day, another social media complaint about Qantas that gets hundreds of supportive replies:

https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/10tajvw

 

[SYD]

Looks like Qantas have a long way to go before the public will be willing to trust them.

Another day, another social media complaint about Qantas that gets hundreds of supportive replies:

https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/10tajvw

Not a lot of specifics there? VA marketing team perhaps?

 

[lovestotravel]

Looks like Qantas have a long way to go before the public will be willing to trust them.

Another day, another social media complaint about Qantas that gets hundreds of supportive replies:

https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/10tajvw

Few keyboard warriors don't really mean much

"Domestically, we’re almost back to 100 per cent of pre-COVID flying levels."

 

[TheInsider]

Looks like Qantas have a long way to go before the public will be willing to trust them.

Another day, another social media complaint about Qantas that gets hundreds of supportive replies:

https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/10tajvw

Lol a post on Reddit. Who cares?

So he wanted a job with SkyBus or whoever, but blames Qantas...

 

[Anna]

Am I the only person who hasn't received this famed email?

I usually get at least 2 QF emails a day so I assume it's not a settings issue.

 

[muppet]

Am I the only person who hasn't received this famed email?

I usually get at least 2 QF emails a day so I assume it's not a settings issue.

I didn't get it either. I also receive what feels like billions of qantas emails a week.