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I guess by 10pm most of the QF12 PAX have departed.There were empty seats, no one was being turned away. The queue to get in was 5-6 people so I paid attention...but your comments are correct
Going back to the earlier posts in this thread, the reports were that QP were being proactively diverted, before the lounge began to get crowded.
Of course, management have a fair idea of the numbers to expect on any given evening so may or may not enact these diversions.
FWIW< I have experinced this at the MEL AirNZ lounge quite often where guesting rules on any given evening (but particularly Fridays) could vary markedly. (No guests, 1 guest rather than 5 for "Gold Elite" etc..)