Regional Express Delays/Cancellations

[AviatorInsight]

All of above thanks.

Maintenance
Sydney
Wagga
Adelaide

Crew
Sydney
Melbourne
Adelaide
Perth
Wagga
Albury
Dubbo
Orange (could have been closed by now)
Brisbane
Townsville
Cairns (?)

Headquarters
Sydney

 

[Melburnian1]

Regional Express' registered office is 81 - 83 Baxter Road, Mascot NSW.

Historically as many of us will know the company has strong links with Wagga Wagga dating from the (Don if I recall) Kendall days.

Interestingly the 2015-16 annual report states that Executive Chairman Lim Kim Hai (Singaporean) not only owns 17.25 per cent of Regional Express but also was not paid one cent in fees as far as I could see. If I've not missed a note to the accounts, that's a model for many other Australian listed companies. Directors' fees did not appear to be rising much above inflation which to me is a good sign, but the number of passengers the company carries annually has been pretty static for the last few years. It has however won Queensland government subsidised air route and other contracts fairly recently, but overall its fortunes are still in some symmetry with how Australia's rural cities and largish towns are going (including agriculture and maybe to a lesser extent mining.)

There were 2184 shareholders as at 30 June 2016 which for an Australian public company is towards the lower end of the scale.

Its regular public transport routes vary from a monopoly for air travel (Griffith, Narrandera both to Sydney and Albury to Melbourne are three that come to mind) against one competitor (QantasLink at Armidale or Wagga Wagga are two examples) and routes with three operators and hence two competitors (Albury - Sydney is one, Mildura - Melbourne is another where QantasLink and VA Regional both have flights.)

On many routes the private car is a major competitor while on shorter routes like Albury - Melbourne, V/Line and NSWTrainLink rail operators would carry more than Rex's daily patronage between Albury/Wodonga and Melbourne, and V/Line's train-coach trips from Melbourne Southern Cross to Swan Hill (train) and then a road coach to Mildura (or the V/Line coach via Ballarat and Donald) in total also carry many more than Rex does, although some of each's demographic may differ.

It will be interesting to see what Rex's results are for 2016/17: on the plus side, fuel prices are low and the fleet must be fully depreciated; the negatives include the recent 'incidents' and probably lower consumer confidence in provincial cities and some of rural Australia than Sydney or Melbourne. Retail sales are patchy nationwide and that's probably a further sign consumers are holding back on spending given low private sector wage and salary growth. Good recent rains may help to improve rural confidence but some commodity prices are lowish, such as wheat even though farm yields have been excellent.

 

[Quickstatus]

I've been trying to get some insight into an opinion that cancellations are rare for this airline. Yes I've seen the annual reports. And I'm amazed that the company can maintain a profitable state even when aircraft are operating at quite low loadings -slightly more than 50%.

I suspect that it's because as you say, the Saabs are fully depreciated and / or if not the deployed capital cost is very low. AviatorInsight might have answered why even at low loadings, cancellations do not tend to occur unlike the main lines. This is ?because? crew bases are in many outlying towns. Essentially where there is a crew base, there is a late arriving flight and an early departure flight. Cancelling a flight to a base could misposition a crew heading home and an aircraft which would be very costly - cheaper to send the crew home?

The fact that JB747 is a frequent patron of the airline gives me some confidence in the airline. However the age of the aircraft with no clear replacement option in the same seating category in the pipeline, the recent incident with the propellor, and the unusually strong and perhaps unsolicited public comment from the CEO leaves some cause for concern.

My interest in this airline began this year as MissQuickstatus commenced university at Charles Sturt University Wagga.
It has a monopoly route with a 3/day between WGA and MEL (well it does have competition with the trains and car but not airline in this route . Will see what the loadings are on such a monopoly route.

(Apparently Rex has won a contract to operate some flights in WA)

BTW WGA -SouthernCross station departs at 0230 am and arrives back into WGA at 1230am

 

[Melburnian1]

...perhaps unsolicited public comment from the CEO leaves some cause for concern....BTW WGA -SouthernCross station departs at 0230 am and arrives back into WGA at 1230am

The Chairman or CEO have not made public comments that I have seen. Deputy Chairman John Sharp, the former Commonwealth Government Minister for Transport has tended to be the spokesman through that 'The Australian' contribution.

There are two daily XPT trains between Melbourne Southern Cross and Wagga Wagga in each direction, the day XPT and the night XPT, not just one daily return trip:

NSW Train and Coach Timetables - NSW TrainLink

I agree that despite the ageing planes being well maintained, Rex's complete lack of a fleet replacement plan is a major omission.

 

[Melburnian1]

Tuesday 11 April 2017 sees ZL188 (SAA340B VH-OLM), the 1910 hours from SYD to OAG that departed at 1953 suggested as arriving at 2039, 39 minutes late.

The 1855 hours evening SYD - GFF (VH-EKX) took off at 1946 for predicted arrival at 2110, 45 late.

 

[Melburnian1]

Zl527, the 1720 hours PKE - SYD that took off at 1748 (SAAB340B VH-RXN) is predicted to arrive on Wednesday 12 April at 1902, 42 late.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Wednesday 19 April MEL is experiencing some (possibly limited) fog in the morning. ZL3656 (0815 hours MEL - MQL) is expected to depart at about 0845 hours while ZL3557, the 0845 hours MEL - BWT is instead predicted to depart at 0930. Other Rex flights such as the MEL - ABX are forecast to incur smaller delays.

ZL3257 (0645 hours WGA - MEL, SAAB340B VH-ZRM) took off at 0746 so arrival is suggested as 0900 hours, an exact hour behind schedule.

UPDATE: ZL3752, the 0630 hours MGB- MEL (VH-TRX) is expected to arrive at 0923, 78 minutes late.

 

[Melburnian1]

Thursday 20 April sees ZL3653 from MQL down to MEL, the 0630 hours that was airborne at 0659 predicted to arrive at 0835 hours, 45 minutes late with SAAB340B VH-TRX. There is quite a bit of holding going on approaching MEL.

 

[jb747]

Thursday 20 April sees ZL3653 from MQL down to MEL, the 0630 hours that was airborne at 0659 predicted to arrive at 0835 hours, 45 minutes late with SAAB340B VH-TRX. There is quite a bit of holding going on approaching MEL.

Strong northerly wind. Presumably most ops on 34.

 

[Melburnian1]

ZL3257, the 0645 hours WGA - MEL (VH-ZRM) is also delayed on Thursday 20 April with arrival suggested as 31 minutes late at 0831 hours. ZL3151 from ABX down to MEL (VH-ZLX, the scheduled 0655 hours departure that was airborne at 0719) is just under that in lateness.

 

[Melburnian1]

On a wet Friday 21 April morning in MEL, ZL3257 (0645 hours ex WGA) is again delayed with arrival of SAAB340B VH-ZRZ likely at 0833, 33 minutes tardy after the aircraft was in a hold near Alexandra, Vic.

ZL3468 (0700 hours early morning MEL across to MIM) did not take off until 0836 hours (VH-ZXG) so arrival should be approximately 0938 hours, 78 late.

ZL3554, the 0630 hours from BWT up to MEL did not take off until 0756 so VH-EKD will not arrive until 0920 hours, 96 minutes tardy.

 

[Melburnian1]

In further on Friday 21 April, ZL3763 from MEL to MGB (SAAB340B VH-ZLX) took off at 0942 against its departure time of 0835. Estimated arrival is 1019, 64 late.

 

[Melburnian1]

Continuing with Friday 21 April, ZL3493 (VH-SBA, the 1640 MIM - MEL that was airborne at 1722) is likely to have its blocks placed on at 1852, 47 late.

 

[Melburnian1]

ZL3653 from MQL down to MEL (SAAB340B VH-SBA), the 0630 hours, took off at 0717 so the inevitable result is projected arrival at 0821, 31 minutes tardy in what has been and is quite a wet MEL.

 

[Melburnian1]

The latest BITRE punctality figures (March 2017) show a marked drop in Rex's on time arrivals, with almost 28 per cent of flights arriving 15 minutes or more late:

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/BITRE_OTP_Report_March_2017.pdf

The ongoing aircraft withdrawals from the propeller loss incident must be the main cause of this.

However Rex still beat QantasLink for timekeeping on some routes such as northbound from Albury to Sydney.

 

[Quickstatus]

Thanks M1, I note all airlines had a lacklustre month of March.
Could bad weather have been a factor. I recall March having a lot of bad weather?.

But yes ZL had a relatively greater drop in OTP than other airlines including its direct competitor QLink.

The graphs are interesting in that they are all sawtooth with apparent regularity rather than a smooth line. Additionally it seems the sawtooth patterns are "in phase" suggesting relative performance between airlines are affected by common factors at the same time. IMO the common factor is the airports and whatever is happening at the airports affect all the actors similarly

 

[Melburnian1]

Thanks M1, I note all airlines had a lacklustre month of March.
Could bad weather have been a factor. I recall March having a lot of bad weather?.

But yes ZL had a relatively greater drop in OTP than other airlines including its direct competitor QLink....

Yes, bad weather doubtless also contributed.

On Wednesday 26 March ZL317 from LSY down to SYD (VH-ZXF), the 0935 hours took off at 1059; arrival should be at 1208, 53 minutes late.

 

[Melburnian1]

Thursday 27 April 2017 has ZL3257 (0645 hours WGA - MEL that took off at 0710, SAAB340B VH-EKH) suggested as arriving at 0830, half an hour behind the timetable.

 

[Melburnian1]

ZL3579, the 1855 hours MEL- BWT that took off at 1932 hours on Tuesday 2 May (SAAB340B VH-ZXK) should arrive at about 2044, 39 minutes past the timetabled completion.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Thursday 4 May 2017, ZL853, the 0630 hours from BHQ to SYD did not become airborne until 0819. Arrival should be 94 minutes late at 1054. Aircraft is VH-ZLR (the usual SAAB340B).

The 0820 hours ZL954 from SYD up to ARM took off at a very late 1031 with arrival in the northern tablelands likely at 1120, 105 late.