Regional Express Delays/Cancellations

Tuesday 4 April sees ZL3653 from MQL to MEL badly late for a second consecutive day, with this 0530 hours timetabled departure turning into an 0640 takeoff. Estimated arrival is 0815 hours, 85 minutes behind time for VH-SBA, the same aircraft as yesterday.

ZL953 (the 0530 hours ARM to SYD) took off at 0637; arrival is suggested as an hour late at 0745. VH-ZRB is the SAAB340B.
 
In further on 4 April, ZL3783 (the late afternoon/ early evening 1745 hours MEL across to MGB, VH-ZLJ) took off at 1859; arrival should be at 19, 66 minutes late.

The more delays like this, the higher the chance that there is a connection with teh withdrawal from flights of at least five of Rex's SAAB340B aircraft. The weather is unremarkable, and there are no other reported problems such as power failures at MEL. It is reasonably unusual for Rex to have these hour long or greater delays: they appear to be happening with some regularity in the last week.
 
In the early evening of Wednesday 5 April, the 1820 hours MEL - ABX ZL3188 (SAAB340B VH-OLM) was still only taxiing at 1930, so it should be at least 55 minutes late arriving at its tarmac position in the Border City(ies.)

ZL344 (1645 hours SYD - GFN) was not airborne until 1920. VH-RXX is estimated to arrive 135 minutes behind schedule at 2025.
 
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I don't get any sense that the temporary reduction in the fleet of Saabs have caused any issues with timetabling.
Perhaps it's due to my own ignorance. Interestingly the flight numbering on Rex follows the aircraft and is not route specific which changes things a bit compared to the usual situation at the other operators
 
I don't get any sense that the temporary reduction in the fleet of Saabs have caused any issues with timetabling....

I observed one SYD - PKE or v.v. flight a few days ago that appeared to have had made an intermediate stop at Bathurst.

Like you, I will have missed monitoring many Rex flights, accentuated by the short duration of lots of them.

One possible effect of at least five aircraft being inoperable is that over time, maintenance on some of the operating aircraft may have to be brought forward because these aircraft are typically undertaking more flights than would normally be the case. I gather that it is the number of rotations - touchdowns and takeoffs that is a major factor in determining maintenance schedules.

There is however a lot more late running than was previously the case. Reports from passengers as to 'why' would be great, as some of the unpunctuality has been on days when the weather in lower southeastern Australia has been benign.
 
Following last week's article in 'The Australian' aviation section (a Friday feature past the business pages), Deputy Chairman of Rex, John Sharp, who was once Federal Minister for Transport has written a very defensive article in 'The Australian' today (Friday April 7) asserting that Rex's punctuality compared to VA Regional and QantasLink is one of the factors that shows Rex is 'more reliable.' He is confusing 'punctuality' (timekeeping) with 'reliability' (cancellations.)

He also says Rex only had two recent incidents, not three, and says that flying is safer than driving (which is true, but already very well known.)

John Sharp also suggested that age was not the defining factor in accidents and referred to a near catastrophic incident involving a QF A388 in support of that contention.

The tone of the article tells me that Rex is quite worried about reputational damage, even though the community may fairly quickly forget, for instance, the 'propeller incident.'

He criticises former Emirates pilot Byron Bailey as one who spoke outside his area of technical expertise. Strictly in one sense that is true, but pilots interact with an aeroplane's workings and innards and must have some knowledge about how things work.

Overall a rather poor defence and one that tells me Rex may be seeing some sort of (temporary?) adverse effect on its bookings.
 
Just because Bailey was a pilot with EK doesn't make him an expert on any of this....
 
Just because Bailey was a pilot with EK doesn't make him an expert on any of this....

That may be so, but based on your logic, no pilot, first officer or anyone who flies would ever make comments on highly technical matters as to the causes of 'incidents.'

You have, and so have your colleagues. Why - because you have some knowledge. So must Mr Bailey.

Let's be consistent.

Your and others' comments are great because they inform the general community (including those who patronise airlines as a mode of transport) and so are Mr Bailey's.

There's nothing wrong in disagreeing with Mr Bailey, but a discussion about the reasons why someone else perceives his contentions as incorrect would be more productive than simply saying he's 'not an expert in the field when it comes to propellers.'

Why not write to the editor of 'The Australian's' aviation section outlining your reasons why you believe Mr Bailey is incorrect?
 
Following last week's article in 'The Australian' aviation section (a Friday feature past the business pages), Deputy Chairman of Rex, John Sharp, who was once Federal Minister for Transport has written a very defensive article in 'The Australian' today (Friday April 7) asserting that Rex's punctuality compared to VA Regional and QantasLink is one of the factors that shows Rex is 'more reliable.' He is confusing 'punctuality' (timekeeping) with 'reliability' (cancellations.)

He also says Rex only had two recent incidents, not three, and says that flying is safer than driving (which is true, but already very well known.)

John Sharp also suggested that age was not the defining factor in accidents and referred to a near catastrophic incident involving a QF A388 in support of that contention.

The tone of the article tells me that Rex is quite worried about reputational damage, even though the community may fairly quickly forget, for instance, the 'propeller incident.'

He criticises former Emirates pilot Byron Bailey as one who spoke outside his area of technical expertise. Strictly in one sense that is true, but pilots interact with an aeroplane's workings and innards and must have some knowledge about how things work.

Overall a rather poor defence and one that tells me Rex may be seeing some sort of (temporary?) adverse effect on its bookings.

Being a Singaporean company it is very much about saving face. In the time that I was there, they were pushing to us a lot about minimising the amount of cancelled flights compared to OTP. Now at Virgin, it's very much the opposite. Not sure as to the reasoning behind this, why they'd choose one over the other.

I did actually enjoy my time on the Saab and found it to be a great aircraft. But they were getting old when I was there, can't imagine now. There were MEL stickers everywhere and we learnt to deal with it. The training and checking is one of the toughest that I have found, but it obviously shows that in each 'incident' the pilots were calm and managed to get the aircraft on the ground safely.

While I can't comment on the Bailey response (as I haven't read the article), again I found, that the smaller the aircraft the more interaction we had as pilots with the 'workings and innards' as to what went on under the cowling as you correctly stated.
 
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Being a Singaporean company it is very much about saving face. In the time that I was there, they were pushing to us a lot about minimising the amount of cancelled flights compared to OTP. Now at Virgin, it's very much the opposite. Not sure as to the reasoning behind this, why they'd choose one over the other....

Is it possible that one reason to try to minimise cancellations (with, you point out, a deleterious effect on timekeeping) might be that on some Rex routes, flight frequencies are low and hence a cancellation has a huge adverse effect, time wise, on passengers?

The articles in 'The Australian' can sometimes be accessed by typing in the heading (if you know it) into Google if one is not a subscriber. On occasion though the paywall is impenetrable (although for those with better knowledge of the Internet than I, they might be able to break through...)
 
Is it possible that one reason to try to minimise cancellations (with, you point out, a deleterious effect on timekeeping) might be that on some Rex routes, flight frequencies are low and hence a cancellation has a huge adverse effect, time wise, on passengers?

Yes, that is quite plausible, I didn't think of that.
 
On Saturday 8 April, ZL465 (0755 hours SYD - NRA, SAAB340B VH-ZLG) took off at 0859; arrival is predicted for about 1012, 52 late.
 
That may be so, but based on your logic, no pilot, first officer or anyone who flies would ever make comments on highly technical matters as to the causes of 'incidents.'

You have, and so have your colleagues. Why - because you have some knowledge. So must Mr Bailey.

Let's be consistent.

Bailey is a bit of a go to guy for the media, largely because he has a theory about MH370. His theory is as valid, but no more so, than many others out there, but he gets the play because he likes the media.

I readily admit that I don't know why the prop came off, and I'll defer to others like AviatorInsight, who have actually flown the aircraft. Bailey would have no more access, or knowledge, of the event than me. It was unusual, and seemed to be well handled.

As for writing to the Australian....why would I care that much?
 
Bailey is a bit of a go to guy for the media...As for writing to the Australian....why would I care that much?

Your thoughts transcribed into words for the national newspaper, read by many 'people of influence' in Australia, may well put a new, nicely argued train of thought 'out there' and be an important (and valuable) contribution to public debate. 'The Oz' has a much greater audience than specialist blogs.

Many people might learn something, and perhaps the media would have a new, second 'go to bloke.' It doesn't seem to constrain the aforesaid Mr Bailey that he allegedly works for a smaller aviation company - it's not clear to me how much flying he does these days - although probably most larger employers (whether private sector or governmental) don't always like their employees or even contractors talking to media. Others may be more relaxed about it, even when a person is introduced as 'North Shore Hospital brain surgeon Godfrey Gooddeed' and hence a link to one's employer is publicly and instantaneously created. The 'paranoia' of companies may be more about if anything is stated by the 'go to' man or woman that is remotely contentious: the public relations people may be worried that this could reflect adversely on the employer of the 'expert.'

Mr Bailey may also 'get the play' because he obviously has some journalistic skills: the ability to author what seems a reasonably credible hypothesis that is comprehensible to a generalist audience. Naturally, he may be anything from 100 per cent correct to 100 per cent wrong.

Mr Bailey may 'love the media' (and get paid for his writing at A$1 a word or whatever the rate is these days) but the media probably love him even more.

The latter regard 'go to' 'experts' as gold on particular topics because media outlets want to be 'first with the latest' and not have to hunt around for someone who'll talk to them: if I recall, radio 3AW's weekday top rating 'brekkie boys' Ross and John (famous in Melbourne but probably unknown in the rest of the country) routinely call some USA 'expert' on aviation: maybe Arthur xx_X (I've not listened for a while.)

Some with valuable knowledge choose not to be in the limelight, have an understandable dislike of many individuals in the media or how the whole increasingly crowded and 'sound bite' media (I use the plural there) set up operates in Oz. One suspects that cynicism towards 'the media' has been on the rise in Australia with some of that damage self-inflicted. For instance, there are many journalists who cannot correctly use the rules of grammar and punctuation, such as proper use of apostrophes. If they or their sub-editors cannot get basics such as that correct, why would anything consider that what they write is credible?

One (former?) QF pilot is now a regular on the speaking circuit, and may well be paid fairly handsomely for that, which is one way to contribute, give others an enjoyable experience in exercising their gray matter but not in that case directly interact with formal media (unless reporters are present at such functions.) That's one way to 'compromise.'

The long timeframe for typical ATSB investigations prior to the issue of a final report creates a vacuum, especially if there are other (euphemistically called) 'incidents' in which the media become interested.
 
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Sunday 9 April 2017 has ZL663 (VH-KRX, the 1000 SYD - WGA that took off at 1023) about half an hour late with likely arrival at 1145.
 
Much later on 9 April, ZL867, the 1605 hours BHQ - SYD that took off only about 10 minutes late at 1626 is likely to arrive at 1945 hours, 50 late as many 'holds' have been necessary for aircraft approaching Sydney.

ZL527 was not late in taking off at 1902 from BHS but the same cannot be said about its forecast SYD arrival with 2018, 46 minutes late the suggestion.

The ARM down to SYD ZL983 (VH-ZXS) should be in at roughly 2019, 94 minutes behind schedule.
 
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On a windy, and previously early in the morning quite rainy day in Melbourne, ZL3257, the 0645 hours from WGA down to MEL that took off at 0742 (SAAB340B VH-RXE) should arrive at roughly 0908, 68 minutes behind schedule.

ZL3152 (0825 hours MEL - ABX, VH-PRX) took off at 0917 with arrival suggested as 1016 hours, 51 minutes past the scheduled.
 
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