Rex to fly between Australian capital cities

[Saab34]

I’ve had many empty or half full QF and VA 6/7am fights, its really a hit and miss. However with no business traffic etc RexJet has no hope at all.

Only need to look at the Jetstar ML-SY schedule to see when the budget traveller wants to fly. Sunday nights they used to have 4 flights within 2 hours 5-7pm. Saturday morning also busy.

 

[dajop]

Today's 7am MEL-SYD had 43 pax (all economy) (25%) , the 12:30pm flight had 3 J and 126 Y (76%), highlighting the early morning problems. I wonder if the later flight is also benefiting in a small way from connections from the regional network (with 6 flights arriving into SYD in the period 30mins-120mins before the 12:30pm flight).

 

[eastwest101]

Today's 7am MEL-SYD had 43 pax (all economy) (25%) , the 12:30pm flight had 3 J and 126 Y (76%), highlighting the early morning problems. I wonder if the later flight is also benefiting in a small way from connections from the regional network (with 6 flights arriving into SYD in the period 30mins-120mins before the 12:30pm flight).

Yep - I would expect that Rex are still very much down on their frequencies for their regional Saab 340 routes, if/when these frequencies are restored they might see a little more interconnecting traffic on their mainline jet services.

 

[Saab34]

Probably one of the worst days today I’ve seen load wise ML-SY. Pretty much all flights today about 20-25 people. Some less. Virgin has a few half full here and there but the majority are 95% plus full.

Tue/Wed/Thur is largely business travellers. They might as well not fly on these days with these numbers.

 

[jase05]

Probably one of the worst days today I’ve seen load wise ML-SY. Pretty much all flights today about 20-25 people. Some less. Virgin has a few half full here and there but the majority are 95% plus full.

Tue/Wed/Thur is largely business travellers. They might as well not fly on these days with these numbers.

0700 SYD-MEL Today
ZL9 - 3 in J, 19 in Y
VA808 - 6 in J, 163 in Y

Looking similar loads tomorrow

 

[Saab34]

The whole model is unviable.

 

[jase05]

The whole model is unviable.

Pricing for the 0700 SYD-MEL rest of week
VA808
Wed 8/12 Y Only Flex remaining $499, J $599
Thu 9/12 Y Only Flex remaining $449, J $399 (Yes J is cheaper)
Fri 10/12 Y all sold out, J $599

ZL9
Every day Y Promo $69, Saver $119, Flex $299, J Saver $299, Biz $399

Pretty evident that VA808 is practically a full house for remainder of week whilst ZL9 will be mostly empty
Very sad reading if you are a Rex exec I’d think

 

[MooTime]

Would be nice to know the average price paid by reach pax... Just out of interest.

I don't suspect many buying the $4hunj+ for Y.

Wonder how long ZL can keep going like this, burning cash, many millions the Singaporean investor had I realise.

How much will a frequent flyer businesses change it??

 

[Scarlett]

0700 SYD-MEL Today
ZL9 - 3 in J, 19 in Y
VA808 - 6 in J, 163 in Y

Looking similar loads tomorrow

Downgauge to SF340 coming soon?
In other unrelated news: John Sharp leaving the business to ‘spend more time with the family’?

 

[Jacques Vert]

... to ‘spend more time with the family’?

Isn't that political speak for "I've been sacked"?

 

[jakeseven7]

Isn't that political speak for "I've been sacked"?

Well it’s the line that the current CEO of VA2 used when they were fired from A2 Milk…. it’s certainly well used in corporate land. So yes commonly used when people are junked.

I heard AJ sent him an invite to join the Chairman’s Lounge!

 

[Saab34]

The money they are using for this experiment is PE shareholders correct? I don’t think burning through 150m and coming out the other end of that, to 10-20% loads is what they planned. They ask for another 100 million. I’d imagine strings would be attached. I don’t really see much changing.

Seems largely just a giant waste of money. I wonder how much patience shareholders have.

 

[jakeseven7]

The money they are using for this experiment is PE shareholders correct? I don’t think burning through 150m and coming out the other end of that, to 10-20% loads is what they planned. They ask for another 100 million. I’d imagine strings would be attached. I don’t really see much changing.

Seems largely just a giant waste of money. I wonder how much patience shareholders have.

And they see Bonza! on the horizon as well, which for all their fanfare about 'new routes and new customers' (lol yup....) they are going to impact Rex, VA2 and JQ as well. Its going to be carnage for a while and as history tells us, not all will survive....

It will be Rexy, VA2 or Bonza! waving the white flag and disappearing / merging / being sold/bought within 18 months I'd say..... we need @pauly7 to give us a more expert opinion though!

 

[Saab34]

Nobody would buy RexJet. They don’t have any permanent Sydney slots, Virgin would cut a deal with the leasing company on the side to get those aircraft.

The business isn’t worth anything. I understand the regional operation was kept seperate from this investment, which is obviously worth something.

You basically just let it die off. However with the passenger numbers they are pulling, nobody would actually probably even notice if they disappeared overnight.

 

[HS-TQE]

If I also recall REX are using 'international' slots for their RexJet services, correct? If so, thats not much of an asset to pick up for any 'potential' suitors.

Only other option would be to liquidate the RexJet ops, the 20+ year old 738s may be worth for freight conversion if any interested operators are willing to do a deal with the lessors of the RexJet fleet.

 

[jakeseven7]

If I also recall REX are using 'international' slots for their RexJet services, correct? If so, thats not much of an asset to pick up for any 'potential' suitors.

Only other option would be to liquidate the RexJet ops, the 20+ year old 738s may be worth for freight conversion if they're willing to do a deal with the lessors of the RexJet fleet.

Virgin are being forced to relinquish some of their unused SYD slots though.... to who is unknown, could be Rexy, Bonza or even QF Group - as they don't have the aircraft anymore to use them.... if Rexy snared some might change things.... a little?

 

[HS-TQE]

Virgin are being forced to relinquish some of their unused SYD slots though.... to who is unknown, could be Rexy, Bonza or even QF Group - as they don't have the aircraft anymore to use them.... if Rexy snared some might change things.... a little?

After the ex MI/SQ deliveries, VA still has the 7x 737s deliveries from an undisclosed operator. Still yet remains to be seen whether if they're 2nd hand 73Gs from WN (which would grow their 737-700 fleet) or more ex-MI/SQ 738s.

On a side note, there are also the extra 2x A320s on the way for VARA as well.

 

[Saab34]

Virgin are being forced to relinquish some of their unused SYD slots though

I don’t think that has actually been confirmed yet?

They temporarily gave some Tiger slots over from what I read between October to March

The 737 fleet will be 100+ in a year or two. Much bigger than VA 1.0

 

[jase05]

Soon to have the largest 737 fleet in the country and only 12-18 months before the MAX order starts arriving. As much as some on here are cheerleading the demise of VA I think they might be just fine

 

[dajop]

So what does it cost to operate the 6 737's? (i.e. how long will the PE money last). I assume the overheads for Rex jet won't be that great, due to the already established corporate structure. I note that VA domestic used to cost $3.8b or so to operate in 2018-2019 with a fleet of 125 or so? That's $3.5m/week for a fleet of 6 aircraft. Defrayed by revenue of up to $0.1-0.2m/week (assuming 20 pax per flight paying $100/head). Also how much of this expansion is being financed by PE vs financed by the Australian taxpayer?