Tasmanian election 2018

[Quickstatus]

We are on a knife edge here in Tas, awaiting the election result. I'm spending some of the wait in my office.

Don’t they have an obscure election system over there? Probably has the lowest ratio of elected representatives per head of pop

 

[RooFlyer]

Don’t they have an obscure election system over there? Probably has the lowest ratio of elected representatives per head of pop

Not sure about that last comment.

Yes, we have the 'Hare-Clarke' system here. The constitutionalists/psephologists call it the most democratic system out there, but its complicated.

Basically we have 5 electorates (same as our 5 Federal electorates) and each electorate has 5 members. So, a 25 member House. Used to be 36 some years ago. So parties need to win at least 3 Members in each electorate to get a majority.

Its hard to get a majority government, as the Greens will usually get 2 or 3 seats and the Libs/Lab will split the rest of the vote, as usual. Labour will form a formal or informal coalition wit the Greens, hence they were in power for 16 years before Hodgman led the Libs to a majority landslide 4 years ago.

This year we have the wretched 'Jaqui Lambe' party to complicate things.

Its looking like Hodgeman will again win majority, extremely rare for the Liberals here. Looks like the Greens will lose a seat, and Labour may pick up two.

Why? Fundamentally I think because the economy of the state is the best its been in many years. Tourism is booming, hotels are being built, roads are being upgraded (slowly!! ) etc etc. All the rest follows.

 

[RooFlyer]

A bit late, but the count is underway here in Tas. Libs ahead.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Not sure about that last comment.

Yes, we have the 'Hare-Clarke' system here. The constitutionalists/psephologists call it the most democratic system out there, but its complicated.

...

Its looking like Hodgeman will again win majority, extremely rare for the Liberals here. Looks like the Greens will lose a seat, and Labour may pick up two.

Do you think it was guns or pokies that did it for him?

 

[RooFlyer]

Do you think it was guns or pokies that did it for him?

Pokies was a BIG issue for Labour, and the ABC. They want to take them out of pubs and clubs and restrict to the casinos. Got a big backlash from the said pubs and clubs who funded an anti campaign accordingly (I'm not going to get into a debate about pokies here). A poll a week or so ago found that the issue was only of interest to 14% of te electorate. Basically Labour trying to win back votes from the Greens

Guns: A month ago, Libs sent out letters to about 60 people and organisations to consult on changing the gun laws here. They put it up on their various web sites. The media didn't cotton onto this until a day out from the election, and there was a hysterical reaction that the Libs were being 'sneaky' in hiding the policy (so they posted it out to dozens of people a month before the election and it was all over the internet ). ABC went ballistic, but it didn't resonate much elsewhere, as the proposals are still well within the National gun policy and guidelines. (Personally, I'm against any change in the gun laws, no matter how much the farmers want it).

By the way, Labour ALSO proposes a review of the gun laws, but they didn't tell ANYONE about this, until the media 'discovered' the Libs consultation and asked them.

Greens, without a environmental issue (except Salmon farms) look like going backwards and on te on-going count are losing votes to Labour.

 

[RooFlyer]

Salmon in Tas. Greens want them either all taken out or severely restricted. Gosh, a healthy product, provides employment in regional areas, great export $$ for the state; open slater growth under the Green-Labour government we had until 4 years ago. Libs have restricted their locations geographically and imposed the EPA directly over them.

Environmental issue is the concentration of fish faeces under the pens, density of pens and they attract seals who affect other commercial fishing.

An issue in Denison, home of Green Independent Federal MHR Wilkie and general Green stronghold. In the areas where the fish farms actually are, Franklin (still Libs strongest electorate) and Lyons - not an issue.

 

[Quickstatus]

Interesting system of voting:
Hare-Clark Electoral System in Tasmania

Each division then has 5 parliamentarians representing the plurality of views within that division??.( Aka electorate??)

Seems like the 5th candidate to be elected to a division may not need the quota of 16.67%

 

[RooFlyer]

Fun fact: Each electorate elects 5 members. Parties are grouped together, but the order of parties on the ballot paper, and the order of the candidates within those groups are randomised.

Drives vote counters and scrutineers crazy, looking for the #1, #2 etc votes.

 

[RooFlyer]

Interesting system of voting:
Hare-Clark Electoral System in Tasmania

Each division then has 5 parliamentarians representing the plurality of views within that division??.( Aka electorate??)

Seems like the 5th candidate to be elected to a division may not need the quota of 16.67%

Yes, I made a quick explanation here, which will hopefully be moved "here" soon.

That's probably the best explanation, else it'll take pages but yes, 'star' candidates might get 2 or even three "quotas" of quotas eg Will Hodgman, the Premier monopolises the #1 vote in his electorate and will probably get 3 quotas in his own right. So he's elected, then his surplus votes flow to the #2 on his ticke (might have 0.5 quotas), until that person is elected, and then Hodgman's, and #2's surplus cascade down again to the third Lib candidate (maybe with some leakage).

If Hodgman gets 3 quotes in is own right, that guarantees 3 Libs for that Electorate, then they fight it out for the 4th.

They also start cutting from the bottom. Lowest vote attractor in an electorate gets excluded, and their preferences distributed. Then the next lowest etc.

The trick is to stave off elimination and to garner the preferences from those sacrificed before you to creep over for a quota!!

Premier Hodgman attracts more personal votes than any other politician in the state.

 

[Quickstatus]

One division was showing the Libs winning at least 3 quotas but they have only 2 candidates in that division. That would mean they are giving away a seat

I assume compulsory voting and only one House of Parliament?

 

[RooFlyer]

No, that's not correct. Both major parties, and in fact all parties will stand 5 candidates in each electorate.

 

[RooFlyer]

Compulsory voting but we do have a Legislative Council, voted for 6 year terms (Lower house 4 years, so out of synch).

Upper house is about 1/2 - 3/4 independents, mostly 'real' independents, so usually functions pretty well.

 

[Quickstatus]

Ah ok thanks.The TV coverage then not showing all candidates per division

So the Upper house elections are on a different date. Have there been elections for both houses at the same time?

 

[RooFlyer]

Libs lead weakening but still looking OK for Majority. Greens have lost one of their three.

Have there been elections for both houses at the same time?

Don't think so. In fact I think they all have individual dates, but frequently you'll get 4 or 5 on the same day. No idea why that happens.

I should be moonlighting as Anthony Green

 

[Quickstatus]

Were Tasmanians interested in these elections?

 

[RooFlyer]

Ah ok thanks.The TV coverage then not showing all candidates per division

The other party members probably waaaay down the bottom with trivial quotas

 

[RooFlyer]

Were Tasmanians interested in these elections?

About middling. Pokies was promoted as the BIG issue but a poll showed it had only abt 14% traction.

Libs went in tipped to just hold onto majority and that's probably what will happen, but there is only a seat or two difference between outright majority and being the party with the most seats, but not in majority.

Labour have also said they won't form coalition with Greens (but they said that last time they formed government, and did).

 

[RooFlyer]

Ha Jacqui Lambe addressing the party faithful. About 12, including kids. She's federal (currently un-elected being a dual citizen) but started the 'Jacqui Lambe network' with candidates.

Truly an embarrassment.

Oh, now she's tearing up. I've turned the sound off and will go and get a cuppa.

 

[Quickstatus]

About middling. Pokies was promoted as the BIG issue but a poll showed it had only abt 14% traction.

Labor spokesperson blaming election loss on pubs and clubs big spending on election and insinuating employees of Pubs and clubs were coerced to support Libs.

Vanessa died? Whois Vanessa?

 

[RooFlyer]

Yes, spending by pubs and clubs against Labor would be a factor. As for coercing their employees ... well, the employees value their jobs so I reckon they had a self interest in supporting the Libs.

Vanessa Goodwin was a Liberal member of the upper house and Attorney General (until she retired for health a year ago) and genuinely liked and respected by all sides. She developed brain cancer a year or so ago and died this afternoon.