The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[oz_mark]

I can see a scenario where they open up to the next age group as soon as demand drops off. So 30 to 39 next and then over 16s. Then launch a big campaign to mop up the rest (and maybe even some sticks).

Already on to the 30-39s in WA

 

[Flying mermaid]

Already on to the 30-39s in WA

Is demand low in WA? I know the vaccination rates seem poor, but is this due to disinterest from the people?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The more detailed breakdown of the vaccinatons injected on Sat 12th June are now out:

 

[mviy]

Already on to the 30-39s in WA

If it's a national ad campaign they have to use the lowest common denominator i.e. target groups that can get the vaccine anywhere in the country, but are not rushing out to get it. So until everywhere in the country people aged 30-39 can get the vaccine there's little point having a national ad campaign targeting that group. If the WA government wants to do their own campaign then that's of course a different matter.

 

[OZDUCK]

Is demand low in WA? I know the vaccination rates seem poor, but is this due to disinterest from the people?

Do the vaccination rates in WA seem poor overall? For first doses WA is at 20.66%, NSW is at 20.89% and Qsld at 20.78 - these rates seem pretty similar to me. And according to figures published on the WA vaccination dashboard on Friday WA had 3.4% of the population fully vaccinated compared to 2.5% in Victoria, 3.1% in NSW and 2.6% in Qsld.

WA is certainly no leader but there doesn't seem to be a notable discrepancy between most of the states with Tasmania appearing to be the 'best' performer - albeit with a smaller population .

 

[Flying mermaid]

Do the vaccination rates in WA seem poor overall? For first doses WA is at 20.66%, NSW is at 20.89% and Qsld at 20.78 - these rates seem pretty similar to me. And according to figures published on the WA vaccination dashboard on Friday WA had 3.4% of the population fully vaccinated compared to 2.5% in Victoria, 3.1% in NSW and 2.6% in Qsld.

WA is certainly no leader but there doesn't seem to be a notable discrepancy between most of the states with Tasmania appearing to be the 'best' performer - albeit with a smaller population .

I have been using ABC’s rollout figures

Tracking the vaccine: Half of Australians boosted with three doses

With children aged 5-11 joining the rollout on January 10, just over 94 per cent of the total population are now eligible for vaccination against COVID-19.

www.abc.net.au

It puts WA in the bottom 3 - ahead of NSW and QLD.

according to ABC

NT. 18.04
TAS. 15.90
ACT. 14.67
VIC. 11.73
SA. 8.6
WA. 7.97
NSW. 7.17
QLD. 6.73

Given these figures, don’t think it’s unreasonable to wonder whether people are slow to come forward and that’s why they have opened up to the younger cohort. I know Queenslanders are fairly laid back about vaccination.

 

[RooFlyer]

The Courier Mail’s take

 

[jb747]

All they really need to do is simply hint that from the end of the year lockdowns and travel restrictions will only apply to the unvaccinated.... I know too many, that I would otherwise have considered intelligent, who are fence sitting. They need a shove.

 

[DC3]

Yes. Promote something like this: From 1 January 22, no international travel restrictions for the fully vaccinated. Although these travellers will be fully vaccinated, they may bring COVID back into Oz, may have mild to no symptoms and probably not need hospitalisation.

On the other hand, the unvaccinated, having no immunity, may contract COVID from the returning travellers, with uncertain outcomes. Hurry, as you only have limited time to get your COVID vax.

Something like that, from that bloke from marketing wouldn’t go astray. About time that this government started addressing that part of the problem.

Edited

 

[Flying mermaid]

I think once we get to opening up to over 16s throughout Australia we need something like that. It’s like with kids vaccinations - you can’t get the childcare subsidy unless your child is vaccinated. It’s amazing how many parents’ worries about their children vanished when there was a monetary penalty.

hopefully they will continue to open up to the next group as soon as the current group starts to fade and not sit on their hands hoping for a resurgence.

 

[burmans]

Yes, there’s little point running ads when most of the people targeted aren’t even eligible yet. Not sure they’d wait till 16 year olds are eligible though to do an ad campaign. Most under 40s are still ineligible to get vaccinated.

Some of the most vaccine hesitant are in the 50-59 age group, could target them!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Do the vaccination rates in WA seem poor overall?

I don't think so. It is more that demand in recent weeks has not jumped like it did in Vic and especially amongst those eligible to get AZ. Pfizer remains in short supply and will remain so till late in the year, when also Moderna will also start to become available. So I would tend to think WA is pretty much comparable to most states given what supply they have access to, and also reflects that a significant proportion of the population is vaccine hesitant.

Vaccinations rates are subject to:

• supply from the Feds - and not just total supply but supply to each of the 3 Channels (ie GP has been constrained well below is capacity to deliver) - Plus also supply of AZ and Pfizer
• ability to be vaccinated via the three channels - Fed (Aged care), State (Mainly hubs, but also outreach clinics pop ups etc) and GP (Practices and GP Respiratory Clinics)
• demand from the vaccinated - which is also constrained by who is eligible to be vaccinated

The larger populous states of NSW, VIc, Qld and WA were all pretty similar per 100 people until the latest Vic Outbreak hit, though their proportionate use of each of distribution channels varied. The smaller jurisdictions had had proportionally more supply issued, and mainly due to that had also achieved higher vaccination rates. Though Tas also had a very high utilisation rate (doses injected/ doses having arrived in a jurisdiction). Note that as NT has a higher proportion of a vulnerable population that it made great sense to issue them with proportionately more vaccines. Utilisation rate is probably in part a measure of a jurisdiction efficiency, but also in part a measure of the willingness of the jurisdiction's willingness to actually get vaccinated.

In recent weeks in Vic the vaccination inertia of the over fifties in particular markedly changed causing a surge in demand in Victoria and in particular from over 50's. The Feds were behind in delivering to Aged Care in Vic, but over the last 3 weeks it has surged delivery to now get it up to a national pro-rata basis.

That increased demand meant that the utilisation rate jump and the stock at that had built up went from storage into peoples arms. The many hubs that had been built and were not that busy, suddenly when into be flat chat with demand. The GP Channel by the Feds started to get practice limits raided, allowing the GP Channel which had had a high utilisation rate but was constrained by supply to now inject more doses. While access to Pfizer remains quite constrained, AZ is in available in greater abundance.

Unfortunately the Feds rarely publish data on % of Pfizer and AZ injected, and by jurisdiction I think not at all. However due to the extra 9 weeks on when the second dose is given means that the current second dose totals are probably heavily biased by Pfizer. Over the next 2 months that should change.

• 

Pfizer is being ramped up. As of 7 June it looks like the Feds have almost 12.7 million doses, of which 4 million are Pfizer.

Note this is not 12.7 million available to be injected, as doses have to be checked and distributed and so there is a time lag.

Almost 6 million doses have been injected.





Whereas it looks like AZ is now being slowed down. ie Supply is probably above demand.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Some of the most vaccine hesitant are in the 50-59 age group, could target them!

Yes there are plenty of AZ eligible people.



Only a tiny data point point, I had my annual medical this week, and in chatting with my doctor during it he mentioned he was thoroughly tired of talking with people who did not want to get vaccinated.

Also in preparing for my annual check at that practice I had a blood test done, and the young nurse had saw no need in getting vaccinated at present (even though she would have been eligible for Pfizer).


Increased supplies to the GP Channel will help as some people prefer to get vaccinated at their GP ( ie not GP Respiratory Clinics, State Hubs). Also that GP's are now just starting to get some access to Pfizer will help. Though Pfizer is going to stay very constrained for many months yet.

 

[Pushka]

Some of the most vaccine hesitant are in the 50-59 age group, could target them!

The trouble is that so many politicians in that age group had Pfizer. Many before there was an AZ option but others were afterwards. Additionally the main message from the Feds and States is that we aren’t going to hurry this. Bad move. It’s not at all surprising that this age group is crying foul and therefore not in a hurry to skip AZ and wait for Pfizer. Especially as currently there is no incentive to have well, any vaccination while borders keep shutting.

 

[MelMel]

A heads up for anyone planning on doing a Pfizer walk-in this week. Apparently all 50,000 doses have been allocated to bookings at these locations

 

[Flying mermaid]

I don't think so. It is more that demand in recent weeks has not jumped like it did in Vic and especially amongst those eligible to get AZ. Pfizer remains in short supply and will remain so till late in the year, when also Moderna will also start to become available. So I would tend to think WA is pretty much comparable to most states given what supply they have access to, and also reflects that a significant proportion of the population is vaccine hesitant.

Vaccinations rates are subject to:

• supply from the Feds - and not just total supply but supply to each of the 3 Channels (ie GP has been constrained well below is capacity to deliver) - Plus also supply of AZ and Pfizer
• ability to be vaccinated via the three channels - Fed (Aged care), State (Mainly hubs, but also outreach clinics pop ups etc) and GP (Practices and GP Respiratory Clinics)
• demand from the vaccinated - which is also constrained by who is eligible to be vaccinated

The larger populous states of NSW, VIc, Qld and WA were all pretty similar per 100 people until the latest Vic Outbreak hit, though their proportionate use of each of distribution channels varied. The smaller jurisdictions had had proportionally more supply issued, and mainly due to that had also achieved higher vaccination rates. Though Tas also had a very high utilisation rate (doses injected/ doses having arrived in a jurisdiction). Note that as NT has a higher proportion of a vulnerable population that it made great sense to issue them with proportionately more vaccines. Utilisation rate is probably in part a measure of a jurisdiction efficiency, but also in part a measure of the willingness of the jurisdiction's willingness to actually get vaccinated.

In recent weeks in Vic the vaccination inertia of the over fifties in particular markedly changed causing a surge in demand in Victoria and in particular from over 50's. The Feds were behind in delivering to Aged Care in Vic, but over the last 3 weeks it has surged delivery to now get it up to a national pro-rata basis.

That increased demand meant that the utilisation rate jump and the stock at that had built up went from storage into peoples arms. The many hubs that had been built and were not that busy, suddenly when into be flat chat with demand. The GP Channel by the Feds started to get practice limits raided, allowing the GP Channel which had had a high utilisation rate but was constrained by supply to now inject more doses. While access to Pfizer remains quite constrained, AZ is in available in greater abundance.

Unfortunately the Feds rarely publish data on % of Pfizer and AZ injected, and by jurisdiction I think not at all. However due the extra 9 weeks on when the second dose is given means that the current second dose totals are probably heavily biased by Pfizer. Over the next 2 months that should change.


View attachment 250363

• View attachment 250362

Pfizer is being ramped up. As of now it looks like the Feds have almost 11 million doses, of which 3.5 million are Pfizer.

Note this is not 11 million available to be injected, as of doses have to be checked and distributed and so there is a time lag.

Almost 6 million doses have been injected.



View attachment 250372

Whereas it looks like AZ is now being slowed down. ie Supply is probably above demand.

View attachment 250373

Didn’t ACT have a 100% utilisation at the last set of figures? ACT 100% and Vic and Tas 93%. NSW 88% WA, SA and QLD all in the 70s

EDIT not trying to criticise WA, just seems strange to open up to over 16s, unless the older population is not fronting up for Vaccines, so trying to fathom reasoning.

 

[Flying mermaid]

The trouble is that so many politicians in that age group had Pfizer. Many before there was an AZ option but others were afterwards. Additionally the main message from the Feds and States is that we aren’t going to hurry this. Bad move. It’s not at all surprising that this age group is crying foul and therefore not in a hurry to skip AZ and wait for Pfizer. Especially as currently there is no incentive to have well, any vaccination while borders keep shutting.

I know a number of 53 year olds who just see no harm in waiting until later in the year so they can get Pfizer.

 

[Pushka]

I know a number of 53 year olds who just see no harm in waiting until later in the year so they can get Pfizer.

And honestly, the messaging has been so poor that the only way they will be ‘wrong’ in waiting is if we have a mass breakout in your own state. We know state borders get shut at the first whiff.

 

[mviy]

A heads up for anyone planning on doing a Pfizer walk-in this week. Apparently all 50,000 doses have been allocated to bookings at these locations

Hmmm. Once I become eligible I was hoping to try a walk-in if I couldn't get an appointment, though that's probably still a while off.

 

[dajop]

The more detailed breakdown of the vaccinatons injected on Sat 12th June are now out:

View attachment 250345

If you consider that in terms of "% job done" , by assuming ultimate target is 80% vaccination (2 doses) of those aged 12 and above then the percentages are ... NSW 15.5%, Vic 19,2%, Qld 15.6%, SA 17.1%, WA 15.6%, Tas 23.4%, NT 20,7%, ACT 21.8% and overall 16.9% (or if you say aged 16 and above it's 16.4%, 20.3%, 16.6%, 18.1%, 16.5%, 24.8%, 22.0%, 23.0% and 17.9%).