The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[Batterytraveller]

Didn’t know if this should go in the vaccination thread or the international travel one but I found this Twitter thread interesting, on the differences in protection against different variants, one vs two dose protection.


edit: I should have said it was US centric

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404151502864883713

 

[Lynda2475]

However due the extra 9 weeks on when the second dose is given means that the current second dose totals are probably heavily biased by Pfizer.

And majority will remain Pfizer, as the majority of the population is aged under 50. Median age is 38, so half population is under 38 and the next biggest group is 38-49.

 

[get me outta here]

I am getting tired of having conversations with people I know who are vaccine hesitant.
One nearly 80 yo with inter alia diabetes and a cancer survivor reckons his GP said he could have a PZ vac in 2 weeks time.
I haven’t heard that it will be available in two weeks for older people, have you?

 

[Flying mermaid]

I am getting tired of having conversations with people I know who are vaccine hesitant.
One nearly 80 yo with inter alia diabetes and a cancer survivor reckons his GP said he could have a PZ vac in 2 weeks time.
I haven’t heard that it will be available in two weeks for older people, have you?

Nope - although I have an 88 year old friend (living independently) who was given Pfizer at Garran surge centre recently. She didn’t have any particular condition that indicated she should, but she did have a preference for Pfizer and asked when she phoned. So maybe older ones are allowed?

EDIT just been reading that Hunt announced GPs will be able to visit older frail patients in their own homes and vaccinate them - so maybe part of that?

I have a 53 year old friend who is still wheeling and dealing trying to get Pfizer. His latest is he has got his GP to write a letter (and send it to ACT Health) stating there is a family history of anaphylactic reactions to alcohol. This is of course a reason to get Pfizer. Now it’s not exactly a lie, as his brother is allergic and can’t touch anything with alcohol in it. However my friend, his mother and his sister all consume alcohol with gay abandon.

I am a bit torn over this, as it is so dodgy. On the other hand I really want to see him vaccinated!

 

[mviy]

I have a 53 year old friend who is still wheeling and dealing trying to get Pfizer. His latest is he has got his GP to write a letter (and send it to ACT Health) stating there is a family history of anaphylactic reactions to alcohol. This is of course a reason to get Pfizer. Now it’s not exactly a lie, as his brother is allergic and can’t touch anything with alcohol in it. However my friend, his mother and his sister all consume alcohol with gay abandon.

I am a bit torn over this, as it is so dodgy. On the other hand I really want to see him vaccinated!

Well some would say that leaving out the pertinent fact that it's clear he's not affected by the hereditary condition is lying, especially as it was done deliberately.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Well some would say that leaving out the pertinent fact that it's clear he's not affected by the hereditary condition is lying, especially as it was done deliberately.

I agree - it’s very dodgy and I am surprised the GP has been bullied into it……

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Didn’t ACT have a 100% utilisation at the last set of figures? ACT 100% and Vic and Tas 93%. NSW 88% WA, SA and QLD all in the 70s

EDIT not trying to criticise WA, just seems strange to open up to over 16s, unless the older population is not fronting up for Vaccines, so trying to fathom reasoning.

The ACT has the advantage that it is very small. So any dose arriving in the ACT is within range of anyone within the ACT pretty much immediately.

With a state like WA the doses arrive at a storage hub, but then have to be distributed out and many of those locations will be some distance away.

The other factor is that when a shipment arrives that it is not immediately ready for vaccination. It has to be processed into job lots. With smaller volumes this would easier to achieve more quickly.

I know that with Victoria that Weimar indicated that these extra steps meant that there was a delay of up to a week from delivery arriving in the State Storage Hubs, to be all of it being injected (assuming that there is enough demand to consume it.

 

[Flying mermaid]

The ACT has the advantage that it is very small. So any dose arriving in the ACT is within range of anyone within the ACT pretty much immediately.

With a state like WA the doses arrive at a storage hub, but then have to be distributed out and many of those locations will be some distance away.

The other factor is that when a shipment arrives that it is not immediately ready for vaccination. It has to be processed into job lots. With smaller volumes this would easier to achieve more quickly.

I know that with Victoria that Weimar indicated that these extra steps meant that there was a delay of up to a week from delivery arriving in the State Storage Hubs, to be all of it being injected (assuming that there is enough demand to consume it.

As I said wasn’t criticising - just trying to understand the reasons for opening up to everyone, when current vaccination numbers seem at the lower end. We are getting lost in a jumble of statistics based on my use of the word “poor” because I have seen WA usually in the lower numbers for rates per hundred and utilisation.

let’s ignore that word and perhaps I can get some information on why WA is opening up to over 16s when there are clearly large numbers of older people not vaccinated yet.

 

[get me outta here]

Well some would say that leaving out the pertinent fact that it's clear he's not affected by the hereditary condition is lying, especially as it was done deliberately.

The TGA site has a list of very serious reasons to get PZ and self induced alcohol poisoning is not one of them. If one has a allergy to alcohol perhaps just don’t take any alcohol and then there won’t be an excuse. So perhaps not such a smart person. There’s no alcohol in the vaccination that we know of is there?
If GPs get to choose (or be bullied), almost everybody I know wants PZ.

 

[Flying mermaid]

The TGA site has a list of very serious reasons to get PZ and self induced alcohol poisoning is not one of them. If one has a allergy to alcohol perhaps just don’t take any alcohol and then there won’t be an excuse. So perhaps not such a smart person. There’s no alcohol in the vaccination that we know of is there?
If GPs get to choose (or be bullied), almost everybody I know wants PZ.

There is alcohol in the Astra Zeneca vaccine and an allergy to alcohol is one of the reasons listed by ATAGI for giving someone over 50 Pfizer rather than AZ. His brother, who has a genuine anaphylactic reaction to alcohol, has already been given Pfizer.

 

[louie-m]

I have a 53 year old friend who is still wheeling and dealing trying to get Pfizer. His latest is he has got his GP to write a letter (and send it to ACT Health) stating there is a family history of anaphylactic reactions to alcohol. This is of course a reason to get Pfizer. Now it’s not exactly a lie, as his brother is allergic and can’t touch anything with alcohol in it. However my friend, his mother and his sister all consume alcohol with gay abandon.

How on earth did people's perception of the risk / reward ratio of getting an AZ vaccination get so comprehensively screwed? So many people who take untold risks in every other aspect of their lives suddenly deciding that a one in several million chance of dying is too much. I really don't understand their thinking.

 

[jakeseven7]

How on earth did people's perception of the risk / reward ratio of getting an AZ vaccination get so comprehensively screwed? So many people who take untold risks in every other aspect of their lives suddenly deciding that a one in several million chance of dying is too much. I really don't understand their thinking.

There is no real thinking that’s the point isn’t it...

People watch a scare piece on Sky ‘news’ or skim read a horror story headline click bait article and are convinced they will die frothing at the mouth without any real thought.

 

[Flying mermaid]

How on earth did people's perception of the risk / reward ratio of getting an AZ vaccination get so comprehensively screwed? So many people who take untold risks in every other aspect of their lives suddenly deciding that a one in several million chance of dying is too much. I really don't understand their thinking.

Yep - I have lost track of the conversations I have had with him on this, but he is genuinely nervous. I did use my car deaths stats on him and while he recognised that intellectually, he said that he feels in control when driving a car and that he can avoid an accident, whereas he feels no control in a vaccine situation…

 

[Flying mermaid]

Getting back to the rollout. Numbers were down again yesterday vs last Sunday. Weekly running total has now slipped under 800,000. I do hope this is a long weekend blip and not apathy returning

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And majority will remain Pfizer, as the majority of the population is aged under 50. Median age is 38, so half population is under 38 and the next biggest group is 38-49.

My point was that proportionately of those that have had Pfizer, that a much higher % will have had both doses than with those that have had AZ.

This is due to the second dose of AZ being given much later.

Take the GP Channel which has almost exclusively done AZ. 3,166,477 out of 5,864,512 doses have been done by GPs.

The majority of people who have had first doses have had AZ. The Feds do not publish the dat regularly unfortunately, but AZ is about double Pfizer.

So at 12 weeks between doses that would mean that just from this one channel that there would be a lot of people who had their first dose of AZ after say 22 March who are still yet to have their second dose. So a minority who have has AZ will have had 2 doses. For most that have had AZ, they are only just starting to become due for their second dose.

Whereas with Pfizer the majority will have had both doses.


The graph below I have marked mark 3 weeks ago for Pfizer and 12 weeks ago for AZ. I think that visually you can soon discern that there has had to have been a lot of the AZ cohort who simply have not yet been eligible to have their second dose yet. But as they can now do so, the current imbalance in Pfizer/AZ second doses will change markedly over the next several months.

Eventually AZ will slow down, but currently there are still a lot of over 50s to be vaccinated. And they plus the large number who have already had AZ doses will require there second doses.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

One nearly 80 yo with inter alia diabetes and a cancer survivor reckons his GP said he could have a PZ vac in 2 weeks time.
I haven’t heard that it will be available in two weeks for older people, have you?

Pfizer is available to anyone over 50 now if their GP provides a valid reason that they should have Pfizer instead of AZ. The GP needs to complete an Eligibility Vaccination Form with this recommendation.

See

COVID-19 vaccination – Eligibility declaration form

COVID-19 vaccine rollout eligibility declaration form for patients receiving a COVID-19 vaccine.

www.health.gov.au

 

[Flying mermaid]

Pfizer is available to anyone over 50 now if their GP provides a valid reason that they should have Pfizer instead of AZ. The GP needs to complete an Eligibility Vaccination Form with this recommendation.

See

COVID-19 vaccination – Eligibility declaration form

COVID-19 vaccine rollout eligibility declaration form for patients receiving a COVID-19 vaccine.

www.health.gov.au

In the ACT the ATAGI reasons for having the Pfizer are listed for clinicians

ACT clinicians

ACT clinicians

www.covid19.act.gov.au

All the GP has to do is send ACT Health the patient details and confirm they have one of the ATAGI listed reasons and state which one and then Health will review and then contact the patient and offer them a Pfizer appointment

 

[Lynda2475]

My point was that proportionately of those that have had Pfizer, that a much higher % will have had both doses than with those that have had

And my point was this will continue to be the case, as overall by end of the year we will have given many more doses of Pfizer than AZ due to be more people being eligible to have a mrna vaccine over AZ. The bulk of hesitancy is related to AZ. We currently have an under supply of Pfizer and high demand, pl3nty of AZ and many unwilling to take it.

Whilst there are a bunch of oldies waiting for theor second AZ dose, this pales in comparison to the number of under 50s wwiting for their first mrna shot (plus over 50s holding out for mrna).

The bulk of the AZ we are manufacturing in second half of this year will end up being donated/sold overseas.

 

[OZDUCK]

As I said wasn’t criticising - just trying to understand the reasons for opening up to everyone, when current vaccination numbers seem at the lower end. We are getting lost in a jumble of statistics based on my use of the word “poor” because I have seen WA usually in the lower numbers for rates per hundred and utilisation.

let’s ignore that word and perhaps I can get some information on why WA is opening up to over 16s when there are clearly large numbers of older people not vaccinated yet.

I think you may be conflating some announcements from other areas or perhaps just made a slip of the keys. WA has not opened "up to over 16s" but has opened up to 30 to 49 year old adults. Only Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander's over 16 are eligible in the lower age group and I believe that this is National policy.

As to why the 30 to 49 people have been invited to be vaccinated I think that it is simply because, like in most states, the State Govt is unhappy with the current rate of vaccination and is opening up the age limit as widely as possible. To quote from the Premiers Media Statement - "We've opened up the COVID-19 vaccination rollout to a broader group of people in an effort to build momentum and get more people vaccinated. " This seems to be a similar approach as NSW, Qsld and South Australia who have opened up to over 40 year olds. While in SA vaccination is also open in 'Country Areas' to anyone over 16. I don't know if it has any relevance but it is noticeable that the two States and Territories with the lower dose 'usage rates' are the largest geographical ones i.e. Queensland and WA.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

How on earth did people's perception of the risk / reward ratio of getting an AZ vaccination get so comprehensively screwed? So many people who take untold risks in every other aspect of their lives suddenly deciding that a one in several million chance of dying is too much. I really don't understand their thinking.

Indeed:

Road Safety Statistics​

• annual deaths per 4.4/100,000 population
• severe injuries requiring hospital admission 156.5/100,000 population (high threat to life was about 25% of this)

Plus 86 cases (46%of an annual figure) of traumatic Spinal Cord Injuries were due to land transport crashes involving motor vehicle occupants and unprotected land transport users such as motorcyclists, pedestrians, pedal cyclists and quad bikes.


The actual figures are higher for the cohort as not everyone uses road vehicles.