The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[openseat]

Always your own choice, but "the UK has reported a clotting rate of 1.5 per million second doses compared to 14.2 per million first doses", so the second dose is about 10 times less likely than the first dose to cause clots. On this basis my daughter has just had her 2nd dose of AZ in the UK (aged 41) having got through the first dose without a clotting issue.

My thought was not because of clotting concerns, but a more effective vaccine strategy.

Mix-and-match COVID vaccines trigger potent immune response

Preliminary results from a trial of more than 600 people are the first to show the benefits of combining different vaccines.

www.nature.com

 

[justinbrett]

Always your own choice, but "the UK has reported a clotting rate of 1.5 per million second doses compared to 14.2 per million first doses", so the second dose is about 10 times less likely than the first dose to cause clots. On this basis my daughter has just had her 2nd dose of AZ in the UK (aged 41) having got through the first dose without a clotting issue.

Well, the choice is yes or no. There is no choice in vaccine.

As the federal guidelines are to proceed with AZ if your first dose was AZ, then I think you'd be at the back of the queue for Pfizer if that was your desire.

 

[openseat]

If you were fine with the first dose then the second would likely present no issues but speak with your Dr before making that decision.

I had a high fever after the first dose, which may have been caused by actually having had covid (I sat next to a couple who had just got off the ruby princess on a flight from SYD to BNE last year before the first lockdowns. Strong reaction to first COVID-19 vaccine may signal previous infection, experts say

Leaving that aside I'm just after the most effective vaccine strategy.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I am not sure what you are calculating.

On 25 May second doses (when should have been Pfizer, as AZ second doses not commenced) were



NSW population is 22% greater than Vic

Back on 25 May Vic 102,081 second doses. Pro rata that would be about 125,000, but NSW is 145,341 = 42% (as opposed to 22%)

That would suggest 20% more Pfizer second doses in arms at that stage on a pro-rata basis at that point in time.


And again I have no problem that the distribution has not balanced throughout the process. Eventually it will all even out.

 

[louie-m]

My thought was not because of clotting concerns, but a more effective vaccine strategy.

Mix-and-match COVID vaccines trigger potent immune response

Preliminary results from a trial of more than 600 people are the first to show the benefits of combining different vaccines.

www.nature.com

Professor Kelly does not support this - ""There is very little evidence that [mixing and matching] is either effective or safe," Professor Kelly said".

 

[justinbrett]

I am not sure what you are calculating.

On 25 May second doses (when should have been Pfizer, as AZ second doses not commenced) were

View attachment 250604

NSW population is 22% greater than Vic

Back on 25 May Vic 102,081 second doses. Pro rata that would be about 125,000, but NSW is 145,341 = 42% (as opposed to 22%)

That would suggest 20% more Pfizer second doses in arms at that stage on a pro-rat basis at that point in time.

The proportion of 2nd doses as total doses, as we were originally comparing. You're all over the place.

Now we're comparing actual numbers per capita? That's even more subjective than the other metric.

This is getting tiresome.

So yes, on this day, NSW had 1.7% of its population fully vaccinated. VIC only had 1.5%. Are there more children in one state than the other? More elderly that got AZ? More people that didn't want the second dose? You're just making assumptions you shouldn't over tiny samples of data. The graph I posted made it obvious that both states were more or less running in tandem until the last three weeks when VIC first doses have skyrocketed. All of the other metrics have been pretty consistent.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As all l age ranges over 16 on up have now had some vaccinations, the other data I would be interested to see is vaccinations per age range.

The Feds issue snippets from time to time, but as they have the data, it is a shame that they do not issue it to allow a full picture.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The proportion of 2nd doses as total doses, as we were originally comparing. You're all over the place.

I was using that as an indicator of Pfizer delivered.

And yes l I was looking at Pfizer doses in arms and if which if you want to look at balanced distribution you need to consider on a per population basis.

With AZ I am sure the Feds will supply all the AZ that can NSW inject.

With Pfizer I remain of the view that Pfizer doses distribution to Vic would not have been "overs" until the current top-up and even after that will still be lower pro-rata than many jurisdictions..

Quite possibly, and indeed most probably, the recent surge in the over 50's getting vaccinated in Vic will mean that Vic will end up with the highest AZ use of any jurisdiction, and especially in the 50-59 year cohort..

Again we would know if the Feds issued the data that they have.

 

[Lynda2475]

It is wrong to assume that true demand is greater than Vic than NSW.

There was a surge in Vic over the last 3 weeks, because walk ins were allowed in max vaccination hubs for both Pfizer and AZ - neither of which is is possible in NSW. Its one reason why Vic is needing to wait longer than 3 weeks between doses because they opened flood gates without forward planning for second doses in most cases.

NSW requires online bookings for Pfizer (and you book both shots at that same time). 40-49s have to register interest and wait until there is availability to get invited to book. The numbers on the wait list are huge (in the 100ks).

NSW also doesn't have any mass vac hubs in the CBD (a huge oversight) and 1a/1b aside the general public cant get mass vac centre appointments on Saturday and they dont open for anyone on Sunday.

The booking limitations mean that utilization is high, but haven't overrun allocation. It doesnt mean that demand is low or people wouldn't happily bring forward their bookings if an earlier appointment became available.

Proposing to allocate vaccine supply on anything other than demographics (population in each category) is unfair unless you open up bookings to everyone to see the real demand is vastly different. Polls are unreliable.

 

[Lynda2475]

With AZ I am sure the Feds will supply all the AZ that can NSW inject.

Absolutely no one is complaining about under supply of AZ, stop trying to make AZ supply an issue. We are swimming in it and will be even more so now that another age group is switching to Pfizer.


Two probable reasons NSW were doing better with second doses:

1. Better online booking system from the start, second dose always booked with the first, no one leaves being asked to call up later re dose 2.

2. Higher proportion of workers in 1a and 1b due to larger population, more aged car facilities and a HQ/Arrivals program that takes 3 times the volume of Victoria. 1a were predominantly given Pfizer, and so more 1a workers means more second doses given already, simple.

 

[justinbrett]

And yes l I was looking at Pfizer doses in arms

That stat doesn't exist as we've well established.

Extra 100,000 Pfizer COVID-19 doses to be delivered to Victoria

Victoria will receive hundreds of thousands of extra COVID-19 doses from the federal government, as Melbourne perseveres through its fourth lock down.

www.abc.net.au

We know it's at least 100,000 extra Pfizer for Victoria (and these would have probably not been injected yet) - but the article does say "This week will allow them to work through some of their existing inventory" which implies they were sitting on quite a stockpile.

which if you want to look at balanced distribution you need to consider on a per population basis.

Considering we don't have the distribution stats, we can't consider them.

I was using that as an indicator of Pfizer delivered.

I'm of the view that if we don't have the facts, don't make them up.

 

[justinbrett]

The booking limitations mean that utilization is high, but haven't overrun allocation. It doesnt mean that demand is low or people wouldn't happily bring forward their bookings if an earlier appointment became available.

I booked Pfizer yesterday for August (first available) and the NSW health site doesn't give you the functionality to change your booking. I'd be happy to bring it forward as people cancel but I assume you have to do that over the phone.

 

[Pushka]

Professor Kelly does not support this - ""There is very little evidence that [mixing and matching] is either effective or safe," Professor Kelly said".

That seems contradictory to information from research overseas. And likely that booster doses will be a mix anyway.

 

[mviy]

That seems contradictory to information from research overseas. And likely that booster doses will be a mix anyway.

We don’t have enough Pfizer for everyone who has had an AZ first dose to switch to Pfizer anyway. If you have had your first AZ shot and no blood clotting you should have AZ for the second dose regardless of age.

 

[drron]

Being in the 50-59 age group, I have had my first dose of AZ. I'm inclined to have my second dose as a Pfizer dose given the Canadian Government advice on the issue and the successful outcome of mixing the two, despite the recommendation of the Australian Health Authorities.

Archived 12: NACI rapid response: Interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines [2021-06-01] - Canada.ca

Advice on the interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines in a two-dose primary series schedule for COVID-19 immunization in Canada.

www.canada.ca

That study has a couple of flaws.
First low numbers.The UK has started a mix and match trial with higher numbers.They will also be assessing the efficacy of the different regimes.
The German trial only assesses antibody levels.Antibodies are not the only factor in the bodies immune responses.
The real life results from the UK are that there is very little difference between the Pfizer and AZ vaccine in preventing covid and hospital admissions.That is despite some information from there that antibody levels are higher with Pfizer.

Also if you did indeed have covid early last year then you are already going to have a bigger increase in antibody levels than those who haven't had covid.

 

[Pushka]

We don’t have enough Pfizer for everyone who has had an AZ first dose to switch to Pfizer anyway. If you have had your first AZ shot and no blood clotting you should have AZ for the second dose regardless of age.

I agree of course. But sometimes there may be medical reasons why a change is required and if that is determined by your medical person then it isnt something to be feared.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Apparently ACT has 49,500 people between the age of 50 and 59 and 30,000 of those are currently unvaccinated. They have 2,700 already booked in for AZ that they now plan to offer Pfizer.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm of the view that if we don't have the facts, don't make them up.

I quite clearly said "suggests", "indicator " "theory " and also quite clearly said only the Feds have the facts that they are not distributing.

Which I fail to see as being materially any different to what you just did....

We know it's at least 100,000 extra Pfizer for Victoria (and these would have probably not been injected yet) - but the article does say "This week will allow them to work through some of their existing inventory" which implies they were sitting on quite a stockpile.

ie Using some information to form a hypothesis when all the information is not known.

 

[justinbrett]

I quite clearly said "suggests", "indicator " "theory " and also quite clearly said only the Feds have the facts that they are not distributing.

Which I fail to see as being materially any different to what you just did....



ie Using some information to form a hypothesis when all the information is not known.

OK sure, if you are conceding that none of your posts were based on facts, that's fair enough. Let's leave it there.

I can retract that one comment that was just a side note and not a core part of my argument if you retract all of your speculations.

 

[burmans]

Hunt has also said they will have access to 2.8 million doses of Pfizer in July, which is much higher than anticipated

Good rollout news for once!

Will they? Surely it just means that more AZ doses will be sitting around unused whilst more people will be chasing the same number of Pfizer doses.

You would think this latest news means we now need more Pfizer so the end if year target may well not be met, in my view it was always ambitious!