The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[mviy]

There are only about 260k as of Monday's numbers released yesterday people in the 70+ yet to receive a first dose (8.91% of the population in that age range) and some of those will sadly be anti-vaxxers. The numbers in the 60-69 age group may be larger, I guess. Considering we'll be getting 11 million vaccine doses each month for the next few months or so the number of over 70s that will get Pfizer that weren't previously eligible for it is not a huge number in the scheme of things.

 

[Tiki]

261,338 over70 not vaxxed,
585,000 ish got the Scomo letter.
846,338 over 60 not vaxxed,

Not a huge number considering extra Pfizer and Moderna coming in, but could significantly clog up hospitals if they got Covid.

Plus if I was a Labor pollie and knew that 585,000 voters got a "love letter" from the opposition and an election coming up, I know what I would do!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

There are only about 260k as of Monday's numbers released yesterday people in the 70+ yet to receive a first dose (8.91% of the population in that age range) and some of those will sadly be anti-vaxxers. The numbers in the 60-69 age group may be larger, I guess. Considering we'll be getting 11 million vaccine doses each month for the next few months or so the number of over 70s that will get Pfizer that weren't previously eligible for it is not a huge number in the scheme of things.

I think you will find there are about 700k unvaccinated at 60+, which at best would account for a 3% nudge

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Covidlive and ABC are predicting VIC will be last to 80% fully vaccinated, but that's probably because the focus in VIC is on getting as many as possible their first dose, so the 2nd dose rate isn't as good as it otherwise would be. At least I hope that's the case.

Yes as it is only estimated based on second dose rates over only the last 7 days which gives a highly skewed result. The second dose rate in Vic was low in that period, but will not stay low. CovidbaseAU gives much more likely projections as it uses what the rates will more likely be, rather than just what they were in the last 7 days. ie Much greater supply, change in when second doses are given etc.

From Covidlive when it instead uses the uses the "6 week first dose" method" for second dose projections (less sophisticated than the CovidvaseAU method as in particular it does not factor in fully the increased supply) they get a much reduced timeline. From Anthony Macali the person that operates Covidlive see the following tweet.

Anthony Macali​

https://twitter.com/migga​

@migga​

·​

Sep 13

​

Testing the "6 week first dose" method for second dose projections (ie just adds on 6 weeks to the date 1st dose is reached at)​

• 70% VIC 30 Oct (47 days)
• 80% VIC 10 Nov (58 days)
• 70% NSW 9 Oct (26 days)
• 80% NSW 19 Oct (36 days)

Whereas on Covidlive using just past 7 day average method it is:

• 70% 17 Nov
• 80% 9 Dec

Now any projection, is just a projection. But with so much changing at present I doubt that projections based on the second dose rate average for that past 7 days will be at all accurate for all jurisdictions.

CovidbaseAU for Vic projects:

• 70% 21 Oct
• 80% 2 Nov

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

ABC reporting on NT's post-80% plans announced today

Mandatory vaccinations for high-risk workers under Northern Territory's stage 3 COVID plan​

All workers across high-risk settings in the Northern Territory must be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before the Territory will reopen borders, Chief Minister Michael Gunner has announced.

The new rule forms part of the NT's new stage 3 reopening plan, which Mr Gunner said would involve "the strongest vaccination rules in Australia".

Under the new reopening requirements, more than 80 per cent of Territorians in each of the five regions must be fully vaccinated.

That means more than 80 per cent of the population over 16 being fully vaccinated, each of the age cohorts being above or close to 80 per cent, remote communities reaching more than 80 per cent vaccination and a "strong and growing vaccination rate for 12 to 15-year-olds", he said.

 

[mviy]

And if this happens, or even 11 Oct, I cannot see the people of the ACT being willing to continue with our Chief Minister's COVID zero dream. Well, I hope not anyway. I'm back to feeling frustrated and despondent again.

ACT announced 75% first dose for over 12s. Despite shifting the goalposts they may well hit targets ahead of the much of the rest of the country and when the fully vaccinated levels get very high the calls will eventually become irresistible to ease restrictions.

 

[jakeseven7]

Covidlive and ABC are predicting VIC will be last to 80% fully vaccinated, but that's probably because the focus in VIC is on getting as many as possible their first dose, so the 2nd dose rate isn't as good as it otherwise would be. At least I hope that's the case.

VIC needs to get a move on with those first doses to get to 80%+ ASAP and then make moves to bring the time between Pfizer doses back down towards 3 weeks at state hubs to speed up second doses.

VIC may be betting on that and getting extra to enable them to do that on which case there will be a massive acceleration. Who knows.

With WA and QLD basically going so stupidly slowly they might as well be sucking the vaccine back out of people’s arms, the national tick box on the PowerPoint plan looks shaky.

I just hope the slow states pick up with all the vax slow coachers getting their precious Pfizer now….

 

[Pushka]

SA Premier today reinforced that at 80% SA will open to Vic, NSW and ACT. When asked about what that meant for SA- WA he didn’t seem to give a toss and just commented that this left WA very isolated. Likely to be there well before Christmas now.

 

[justinbrett]

It's covidlive-official!

 

[Seat0B]

ACT announced 75% first dose for over 12s. Despite shifting the goalposts they may well hit targets ahead of the much of the rest of the country and when the fully vaccinated levels get very high the calls will eventually become irresistible to ease restrictions.

I hope you are right, but honestly, today, after re-watching the press conferences, I don't see it going that way. The Chief Minister is making a total virtue out of pushing well above the 80% target, and has been on record for quite a while now that he would be including the over 12s in the statistics. It will be just so difficult to watch NSW regions that abut us getting freedoms while we are totally locked down. As I said earlier, I recognise I am feeling a bit despondent today, but it is hard to be sanguine when no matter what you do, it is never enough and the goalposts keep being shifted.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I hope you are right, but honestly, today, after re-watching the press conferences, I don't see it going that way. The Chief Minister is making a total virtue out of pushing well above the 80% target, and has been on record for quite a while now that he would be including the over 12s in the statistics. It will be just so difficult to watch NSW regions that abut us getting freedoms while we are totally locked down. As I said earlier, I recognise I am feeling a bit despondent today, but it is hard to be sanguine when no matter what you do, it is never enough and the goalposts keep being shifted.

yea lots of ifs and coulds and mays.

trying to nail people to the wall for saying they might not stick to the plan while speaking out the other side of his mouth and saying he is looking at 12+ instead of 16+ ..... ie .... not just sticking to the plan.

there is just no certainty and its very disheartening.

 

[mviy]

It's covidlive-official!

It's health.gov.au official. 80.07% first dose in NSW.

 

[ketsuzei]

The Chief Minister is making a total virtue out of pushing well above the 80% target, and has been on record for quite a while now that he would be including the over 12s in the statistics.

Literally talking just a matter of days, and given that the ACT is just a few drops of piss in the larger cesspool, it seems like a pragmatic enough approach to me.

Given the speed with which vaccine coverage is increasing at the moment, the case for *not* waiting that additional little bit of time seems much less obvious.

 

[mviy]

Australia is probably a few days results away from going past 70% first dose for 16+. We should go past 85% first dose for 50+ when today's numbers are released tomorrow.

Every age group 70-74 and up except 95+ is not past 90% first dose. 70-74 is at 69.9% second dose so when today's numbers are released tomorrow every age group 70-74 and up except 95+ will be past 70% fully vaccinated.

40-44 has reached 50.6% fully vaccinated. Every age group 40-44 and up has gone past 50% fully vaccinated.

Over 2% of 12-15 year olds in NSW and VIC had their first dose yesterday. Nationally 6.23% have had their first dose, 1.43% of 12-15 year-olds had their first yesterday.

SA has reached 60.45% first dose for 16+. Now only QLD and WA are yet to go past 60%.

TAS has 49.85% fully vaccinated and should go past 50% when today's numbers are released tomorrow.

VIC is probably just a couple of days away from going past 70% first dose for 16+ and should go past 85% for 50+ first dose and 90% for 70+ first dose when today's numbers are released tomorrow.

WA and QLD should go past 40% fully vaccinated for 16+ when tomorrow's numbers are released on Friday, the final states to reach the half-way mark.

 

[mviy]

Literally talking just a matter of days, and given that the ACT is just a few drops of piss in the larger cesspool, it seems like a pragmatic enough approach to me.

Given the speed with which vaccine coverage is increasing at the moment, the case for *not* waiting that additional little bit of time seems much less obvious.

According to health.gov.au there are 19,693 people aged 12-15 in the ACT. 1,044 (5.3%) have had their first dose.

 

[Pushka]

Buddy heck. Marshall Premier SA just shifted the goal posts. Now it's 80% across every LGA.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Buddy heck. Marshall Premier SA just shifted the goal posts. Now it's 80% across every LGA.

Looks around the eyes, not into the eyes!

liars and deceivers

 

[ketsuzei]

According to health.gov.au there are 19,693 people aged 12-15 in the ACT. 1,044 (5.3%) have had their first dose.

And yet 75% of the 12+ population have had a first dose. So hardly worth whining about “moving the goalposts” when the ACT’s not exactly going to be dragging the national average down.

 

[Seat0B]

And yet 75% of the 12+ population have had a first dose. So hardly worth whining about “moving the goalposts” when the ACT’s not exactly going to be dragging the national average down.

It’s not about the national average that I am “whining“ @ketsuzei. It is for getting out of our local 1 week lockdown that has now been extended to 9 weeks and the Chief Minister has made it pretty clear that the only way he thinks we can “safely open” is if our vaccination rate is close to 90% of 12+ population double vaxxed. That’s going to take a lot longer than 80% of the 16+ population. It’s not in line with the National plan at all. It is a moving of the goal posts.

 

[ketsuzei]

It’s not about the national average that I am “whining“ @ketsuzei. It is for getting out of our local 1 week lockdown that has now been extended to 9 weeks and the Chief Minister has made it pretty clear that the only way he thinks we can “safely open” is if our vaccination rate is close to 90% of 12+ population double vaxxed. That’s going to take a lot longer than 80% of the 16+ population. It’s not in line with the National plan at all. It is a moving of the goal posts.

He knows the ACT will have basically no choice but to open up when NSW does, and just wants the ACT's vaccination level to be as high as possible by then. Do you really think that any other jurisdiction would be opening up at the moment if they had 10-20 cases a day? What specific policy settings would you be easing right now? Can you give a specific number for the acceptable number of hospitalizations?

I've lost a small fortune by not being able to travel overseas for work, but complaining about Canberra's current lockdown seems just a tad rich to me. This is basically the only time that a lockdown makes at least some sense, and fortunately for Canberra it's the first one we've needed after more than a year of pretty much business as normal.